12:07 AM Eastern
It looked for a while as though we might have a repeat of the 14-1 shellacking that the Jays laid on the Reds a couple of weeks ago, with A.J. Burnett getting a big lead early and coasting to a win, save for a minor second-inning blip.
This time, Burnett was again staked to a big lead, as his teammates took advantage of some horrendous Baltimore defense, but this time he almost gave it all back - the Jays’ 7-run 4th just barely outdid the Orioles’ 6-run 6th.
No doubt it’s a performance that will have many of you calling for Burnett’s immediate dismissal, for anything the Jays can get (some already have), but that would be ridiculous, and I’m sure most of you fine readers are aware of that. Yeah, he had a horrible inning tonight, but that did nothing to lower his value on the trade market. Just like David Eckstein sitting behind Marco Scutaro for three weeks has done nothing to lower his value on the trade market.
Burnett is the most-coveted starting pitcher on the trade market right now, and the Blue Jays won’t deal him for a bag of balls, or a grade C prospect, just to run him out of town. He’s probably here for another two or three starts - maybe not, but probably - so enjoy the roller coaster ride until then.
The greater concern for the Jays, of course, is the health of Dustin McGowan, who was placed on the disabled list today with a tear in the “rotator cuff area” of his right shoulder, according to J.P. Ricciardi on tonight’s post-game. They don’t yet know the extent of it, or whether it will require season-ending surgery, but McGowan is going to be seen by Dr. Timothy Kremchek, who performed B.J. Ryan’s Tommy John surgery last year, once the shoulder calms down.
Without McGowan, the Jays have shuffled their rotation. John Parrish will get the finale against the O’s and Roy Halladay will be bumped to Friday’s opener against the Yankees. It’s a move made, they say, to get a leg up on New York, but the truth is they didn’t want to face the Yankees starting Parrish, Jesse Litsch and Brian Tallet in three games, and I can’t blame them.
If McGowan’s injury is a long-term one, we’ll likely see David Purcey up here after the all-star break, though Cito Gaston said that Tallet was given the start because he earned it, and he’d like to see him make more than one. There’s a chance that the Jays’ second-half rotation will be Halladay, Litsch, Parrish, Purcey and Tallet - if Burnett gets dealt and Marcum isn’t quite ready to come back. J.P. Ricciardi said that Marcum is still on track to be in the rotation out of the break, but Cito didn’t sound as confident.
Here’s tonight’s edition of Wednesdays with J.P.:
One thing I have to say, and I said it on the show, is that the reason that this team is disappointing so many people is because it was expected to be good. If you think that this is just a collection of below-average, aging, mostly useless hitters, then you have no right to be disappointed by the fact that they’re currently 44-47. You should have been expecting that, or worse. But I know I didn’t hear any callers in the off-season and the spring saying that they thought this was a last-place team.
There are still 71 games left in the season - 1989 update, they were 44-47 after 91 games that year, too. I don’t understand why so many of you so desperately want me to say the season is over. It’s clearly not. I’ve said many times that it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult for them to make the playoffs.
Comments are encouraged, but not those kinds of comments.
Your 1989 updates are heartening though even you would have to admit that it’s too small a sample size to mean anything. I’d be curious to know the average number of wins for any team with a 44-47 record over the past 20 years. I’m not sure the glass would be so half-full.
MW: Who says the glass is half-full? It’s not. It’s just not empty.
- bgMike, to quote Paul Godfrey, when asked if he could fire JP “The thought hasn’t crossed my mind”.
Now I am not exactly a baseball expert by any means, so could you give me your opinion on why this thought hasn’t crossed his mind ?
Is it simply that in baseball the majority of the time you wait until the end of the season?
Could an interim GM be any worse at moving out some players at the deadline (Eck, AJ, maybe Rolen?) compared to a GM who is most likely not returning to manage the team he is attempting to improve for next season?
Regards,
Dwight
P.S. Do you like beets?
MW: I’m sure the thought has crossed his mind, just as I’m sure an interim GM could do reasonably well at moving some players by the deadline, though not as well as someone who is completely familiar with the roster. Still, if the plan is definitely for J.P. not to come back, then he shouldn’t be the guy in charge of building for the future now. And yes, I like beets, but not pickled ones.
- Adam KHey Mike,
As always keep up the great work.
It would have been hard to imagine seeing a rotation that you outlined above earlier this season, especially when Doc through to Litsch were doing so well this year.
Count me among the people that wouldn’t mind seeing Purcey getting an extended look at the big league level, granted he has had control issues in the first couple outings but most do the first times out.
My question to you is, where do you see Purcey in a typical starting rotation staff? Do you think he has the stuff to be part of a 1-2 combo or more of a 3-4 guy in the rotation?
MW: He has showed the ability to be a top of the rotation guy in the minors, but I’d like to see what he can do in the bigs. I’d be very happy if he wound up being a middle of the rotation pitcher.
- Johnny GHey Mike,
Any chance you can comment on the Jays firing Wayne a.k.a the Ice Cooold Beer Guy? Seems like another dumb move in a long list of dumb moves.
MW: That has nothing to do with the baseball operations department.
- Eli FreedmanHi Mike - I was beginning to hope for a repeat of the 30 -3 shellacking of the Orioles by the Rangers last season but no such luck but a win is a win is a win. I enjoy the “necessary evil” of the show and the blog. Does JP realize that the “necessary evil” allows for him and others in baseball to have multi million dollar contracts. It will be interesting to see how Tallet fares as a starter. What do you think of A-Rod and Madonna? Perhaps A-Rod used some kind of Kabbalah like mind control on Howie Clark last season causing him let that easy fly drop. Anyway it will be great if Madonna follows him to the Rogers centre. Jose Canseco must be big time jealous!
MW: I don’t really think of A-Rod and Madonna at all, at least not together.
- Daniel#90 (July 9) - “…I’m not going to comment on your theory because there’s nothing nice I Can say about it.”
Thats fine Mike. Thanks anyway. I’m new to this sport and trying to understand it better. Thats why I’ve been listening to the show and reading the blog.
If there is another forum where I can discuss my ideas, see why they’re flawed, and figure out why the rules are the way they are in baseball please point me to it.
MW: I’m sorry to have offended you, there are a ton of other places out here to discuss baseball, and I’m glad that you’re getting into the game. The idea is flawed, though, to have a sacrifice fly count as a hit sometimes and as an out other times, when the run’s not worth as much. Would you do the same with a single if you’re down 10 runs?
- CarsonMichael,
I don’t want you to say the season is over. I never want you to say the season is over. Not even on September 28. I want you to tell me that the season will never end. When winter comes and it starts getting cold (well, I live in Vancouver, dude, it never actually gets cold, but you know what I mean) and all the bars are packed with obnoxious hockey cheering yahoos, I want you to tell me that there’s still some secret place where you and me and the Drunk Jays Fans can still sneak away to watch loping, lanky right fielders run down fly balls on the green, green grass and hear the sound of a fastball smacking into leather.
Must the season ever end? Say it ain’t so, Joe! I mean, Mike.
- MikieOn the subject of mind-bottling- doing some quick arithmetic of the run differentials for each division reveals the following:
AL East +207
AL Central +30
AL West +/- 0
NL East -11
NL Central -29
NL West -197
Wow.
- AdamI keep seeing the name Dallas McPherson popping up as someone the Jays should trade for, which I find amusing, as he plays for my hometown team. Yes, I’m a Jays fan ensconced in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Anyway, for the edification of anyone who’s curious, Dallas obviously has a lot of pop in his bat (witness his 30 HRs), but one must remember that his power numbers will benefit from playing at Isotopes Park (which has an altitude similar to that of Coors). He appears to be a plus defensively, though I wonder about his range to his left.
All that said, he’d probably be a good pickup for the Jays… you know, if they didn’t have some guy at third already.
MW: I think people are thinking of bringing him in to play first or DH - but thanks for the altitude adjustment!
- TonyMike - you’re kidding right? giving up 7 runs to the Orioles (not a powerhouse team) does nothing to lower his value? Glad you aren’t my GM! I’m not saying give him away - he has some value. Mike, he is a .500 pitcher with an inflated era and a hefty price tag w/an option he controls…”most coveted” - seeing through Blue Jay colored glasses. He’s an average, overpaid pitcher…Mike, show me anything in his numbers or makeup (or otherwise) that makes him coveted? Inning eater? No Good era? No Good contract situation? No Good in a clubhouse? No History of pitching well in big games? No Back it up with something, please!
MW: Take a look at his career numbers. With the exception of this season, he’s pitched exceedingly well when healthy, and this season he’s been very good 2/3 of the time.
- GaryHey Mike,
Since Burnett is now the most-coveted starting pitcher on the trade market. . . 1) Which teams do you think want him the most? and 2) From those teams, what are some of their high quality prospects they may dangle as trade bait?
Love the show, keep up the good work.
MW: Those question have been asked and answered many times.
- RyanHalladay, Litsch, Parrish, Purcey and Tallet
Yikes….how the mighty have fallen. And when I mean mighty, I’m referring solely to the rotation. If that’s the rotation for any extended period of time, deeming the playoff chances to be extraordinarily difficult would be an understatment.
MW: Indeed. Especially with Brad Wilkerson playing every day.
- TerryI am not sure you allow mulitiple posts? Anyway, I follow the jays and O’s - and for the life of me I cannot understand why nobody questions why Markakis is not the O’s All Star? The baltimore Sun website gave a choice recently of 6 players - and one of them was not Markakis! You would be very objective - as you watch the Orioles - is there any doubt how good he is and that he is their best player? Curious of what you think of him.
MW: I think he’s terrific, a very underrated great young player.
- GaryFrom reading sports blogs from other cities, I have noticed that A.J. is still not on anybody’s wish list. Bedard is ahead of him (even with the Phillies). Most analysts indicate a need for relief pitching and a bat or two!
I don’t think A.J. will be traded. I dream that Yankees want to trade Hughes(who is on the DL) for A.J. so they can send Joba back to setup. I can’t see J.P. making any trades in the A.L. Do you Mike?
What about the Dodgers? They have a system with a backlog of talent but an organization that no other teams want to deal with, or so I have read.
MW: Not on the wish list of bloggers which, sadly, doesn’t mean anything. I see the Jays dealing at least Burnett, Eckstein and Zaun. The Dodgers will be sniffing around.
- Rob K from OakvilleErik Bedard is actually the most coveted starter on the market right now.
MW: I disagree.
- GaryMike
Did you happen to hear Dan Shulman’s comments regarding AJ Burnett and his value on Prime time at all? Just curious what you thought.
Sean
MW: I didn’t - what did he say?
- SeanHi Again (#90 July 9)
You can just ignore my last email. I see there is a difference between at bats and plate appearences. I also see there is a metric out there that incorporates the importance of a ‘hit’ (based on the score, when it happens etc.).
I didn’t know these things when I asked my question (which is why I was asking) so your “I’m not going to comment…” statement was unnecesarily rude. I’m an aknowledged amateur doing his best to understand a complicated game, and comments like that don’t help.
MW: You didn’t tell me any of that, so you weren’t an acknowledged amateur.
- CarsonDo you see the Jays as deal proposers or listeners at the deadline?
MW: Both, I hope.
- JeffHey Mike,
I think the Jays have waited too long to trade Burnett. You look at his numbers: 5.23 E.R.A., 1.51 WHIP, and leads the AL in walks. His numbers are among the worst in the AL for starting pitchers. I really doubt that what the Jays get in a deal now will be better than the two picks. I don’t think scouts are comparing Sabathia and Harden with Burnett. Or, do you think the demand will be so great to drive up the price? Lastly, his ERA has gone up almost an entire run since June 1st, is it possible that if he doesn’t get dealt and continues to pitch poorly that he decides not to opt out? In other words, will a team give him more than $12 million for a plus 5 ERA and a WHIP over 1.50?
Thanks Mike
MW: It’s possible that if he doesn’t get traded and continues to pitch poorly that he won’t opt out, yes. Nobody saw this coming - and if anyone says they did, they’re lying. Nobody is comparing Burnett with Sabathia and Harden, but Sabathia and Harden aren’t on the market anymore. Once upon a time, guys like Pedro Astacio and Esteban Loaiza were the most coveted starting pitchers on the market at the trade deadline.
- JeffFrom a post after the Tuesday game:
“MW: Why are people so down on the Wilkerson/Mench signings? Didn’t cost them anything, could have worked out (but obviously didn’t), but they were better than what they had in the minors.”
The fact that they had nothing in the minors, after 7 years of a Ricciardi GM-ship is a very good reason to fire Ricciardi.
Talking of which, given that he hasn’t been fired yet, I suspect that he is now a figurehead rubber-stamping the deals/trades that others put before him and will remain that way until he’s let go at the end of the season. I don’t think the front office wants to cause any more turbulence in the team and I also don’t think they have a replacement ready yet. So what we will be seeing are more ‘We Should Hire Cito!’ events, where Godfrey is at pains to underline how his GM had a wonderful idea. The Burnett trade–when it happens–will be framed this way, as will other trades. But I have no doubt at all that Ricciardi has now been reduced to the same level as the mascot, and has the same amount of leverage.
MW: You are incorrect.
- reyes…and no doubt you will be reminding me that figureheads don’t have the ability to rubber stamp things. But this figurehead comes with an adjustable arm!
- reyesHey Mike,
Fell asleep last night (the heat is getting to me here in Halifax) and I didn’t get a chance to call in and ask JP, so I’ll ask you…
It seems like the Blue Jays haven’t really been able to develop solid infielders since JP has taken over. Aaron Hill has panned out nicely, but after that I don’t think there are many solid major league infielders in our farm system. Don’t get me wrong, I love Rolen, but when was the last time we had a good 3rd baseman come up? (Can I say “small sample size” and have you ignore the Hinske ROY season?)
Any comments/insight you could give me on the Jays minor league infield would be much appreciated!
Thanks Mike!
MW: Russ Adams very obviously didn’t work out, but Hill did. Right now, the best infield prospects in the system are Scott Campbell (2B), Justin Jackson (SS), Kevin Ahrens (3B) and John Tolisano (2B). While the Jays haven’t been able to develop many solid infielders through the system, Joe Inglett (waiver claim) and Marco Scutaro (traded for two minor leaguers) are doing OK.
- LukeMike - how simple is that!Absolutley correct - if your expectations were low to begin with as to the talent base of hitters - then why such frustration and anger with an expected result. The frustration comes from fans out there knowing this club can do better.
Many have said, JP and to a lesser extent Cito the other night came across as defeated with respect to making the post season! Having said that, I would think perhaps they are using a little “reverse phsycology” to try and start a fire under these guys. Hey, there 2-0 since those comments.
The best thing I saw coming out of the 6th inning was AJ’s demeanor. He did not, seem to show any anger or frustration with respect to how the inning went or at his removal (obviously he would be dissapointed).
In his post game interview, he was completely relaxed and very humble in my opinion. Stated, getting the win for the team is far more important than any win for himself. He went on to say he did not deserve to win the game, he’s not going anywhere, he’s a Blue Jay, the hitters came back after that inning, the bull pen did a great job etc. Just sounded very refreshing to me, to hear this, coming from AJ.
If AJ is not traded, I for one don’t think you will see him opt out of his contract with the Jays.
With 71 games to go anything can and has happened before in MLB. The second half of the season is a new season. The teams above them have yet to go into any kind of extended slump - and they will. The Jays, I still believe they are capable of a 47 - 24 or 45 - 26 second half - provided they stay healthy.
Thanks.
MW: Sadly, that health part isn’t going to happen.
- BobHi Mike,
I’m excited about the two wins! I just want to ask your permission, and hopefully request you to to the same in the radio show, to encourage the Toronto fans to go and be loud in the ballbark during the weekend’s series against the Yankees. There is nothing that dissapoints me more in the Jays fan base (TO area) than a bunch of Yankee fans fly to TO to outgrow and outperform the Toronto fan base! I just hate to hear more cheers for a hit by Derek Jeter than a hit Alex Rios…
Go jays!
MW: I like it when the Jays and visiting fans try to outscream each other, and I look forward to it happening this weekend.
- AxelHey Mike, another great show…I really like the perspective that you’ve articulated regarding our Jays this year - it really is about not meeting expectations; not guys being washed up, or “not caring” (that mentality drives me crazy as well!) etc. Thanks for that reminder.
I don’t think many people see guys like Rios, Wells, Rolen, Lind, and Hill declining from what can be reasonably expected of them as we go forward (beyond this year). Health is an issue for some, obviously.
Good Pitching is even tougher to find, keep, and maintain, so I’d argue that we should be looking for Pitching in any Burnett deal. The shadow over McGowan underscores that point. Thanks again for this forum, much appreciated.
Tim
- Tim CGuelph
Wow, that would be quite a rotation. From strength to complete question mark.
It would be funny if the hitting came around just as the pitching went south due to injuries.
Baseball is hilarious. I love it.
MW: That’s why they call it baseball.
- Rory“One thing I have to say, and I said it on the show, is that the reason that this team is disappointing so many people is because it was expected to be good. If you think that this is just a collection of below-average, aging, mostly useless hitters, then you have no right to be disappointed by the fact that they’re currently 44-47. You should have been expecting that, or worse. But I know I didn’t hear any callers in the off-season and the spring saying that they thought this was a last-place team.”
That’s an interesting argument, but the answer is not necessarily black/white.
You could be disappointed because you expected 84-88 wins, and so far they’re struggling to even meet that.
I’ll repeat my original point: if you squint, you can see the 2002 Angels (or 2005 White Sox) with this club. But you only have to look how the 2003 Angels did (or worse, 2006 White Sox) to see that pitching and defense is a risky recipe for success.
(The same is true for the Dodger clubs in the 60s you compared this Jays team to–one year it works, next year disaster.)
And as far as disappointments go, Jays fans need to get in line behind Indians fans. But Shapiro at least seems much more proactive in reassessing his club, rather than JP just scratching his head and basically saying, “I don’t know what happened. This is supposed to be a good team!”
The thing that scares me is when JP says nobody told him in spring training or whenever that the Jays didn’t have a good team. Really? Who has JP’s ear? I think a lot of people could have told him it was a RISKY team–albeit one with a lot of upside. It’s been mentioned a lot on this board the Baseball Prospectus (and even Baseball Think Factory) both projected the Jays to be mediocre in ‘08. Again, the examples above show that while it was possible for the Jays to be good in ‘08, it was equally possible that they wouldn’t. Does that mean LaCava and Co. just tell JP what he wants to hear? (Is that why Keith Law finally left?) Or does JP just not listen to (possible) dissenting voices? That makes me wonder if he’s still the man for the job.
The funny thing is that JP could leave and then LaCava or whoever could basically field the same squad and end up winning the division. There’s talent on this roster. Other than Halladay, though, it’s just risky talent.
MW: I don’t think that J.P. has ever said that no one said to him that the team couldn’t be mediocre, what he has said is that no one said that this would be a last-place club, and that’s true. Your last point is bang-on.
- MichaelHey Mike,
I hate being a pessimist (but maybe I’m here being a realist). You’ve always said you think the Rays will come back down to earth, and maybe that’s true that they will. However, they’ve built up a nice record to start the year. You’ve also said previously that you think 89 wins will take the wild card this year. If that’s the case and the Rays play below average ball, at 34-38 the rest of the way, they still make the wild card. The Sox have to go 34-36 to get to 89. And that’s not even counting the Yankees, Oakland, Minnesota, and Detroit who all stand between us and the WC.
The baseball landscape in 2008 and 1989 are not the same (in terms of payroll discrepancies, talent disparities), and I think its about time that we stopped comparing this team to 1989.
The season ain’t over, but it’s on it’s curtain call.
MW: The baseball landscapes aren’t the same, it’s true, but look at the Astros in 2005 and 2006 for more recent examples. It’ll take a near-miracle, but stranger things have happened.
- KevinHi Mike,
Well that game was nothing if not entertaining. I would have loved to hear what AJ was muttering to himself after that Adam Jones 3 run HR, I’m sure it would have been unprintable in this family friendly blog, I know what I was saying is. All in all, we got the win so I’m happy.
I noticed last night that Vernon (after the game) was sitting at 9 HR, and 42 RBI. It seems to me that historically, he’s hit better after the All-Star break. I was just wondering if you had any stats that would confirm that or not. If it is the case, I have to think he still has at least a decent chance to hit 20-25 HRs and get 90-100 RBI, even with missing a month, no? My other question is if we’ve got any word on the seriousness of whatever it was he tweaked while pulling into 3rd? Thanks.
MW: We got word, and the word’s not good - he’s going to miss at least a month, again.
- Sean CourtHmmmmmm, I wonder why JP might call up Snider and JP A.
Wonder if he’s trying to say hey bosses, don’t forget I drafted these guys, please don’t fire me!
Seriously though, JP’s drafting the last 2 years have been very impressive, the first 5, not so much.
MW: Yeah, there’s not much to Marcum, Hill, Lind, Litsch, Janssen, Overbay, Accardo, McDonald, Scutaro and Tallet.
Yeah, there isn’t much to that list. That’s 10 players you listed in 5 years. That 2 player’s per year, and in how many rounds? The only legitimate impact players on that list are Marcum and Hill, hopefully Lind too. If you look at the new crop coming up (Snider, JP Arencebia, Cooper, Cecil, Justin Jackson), it clearly blows away the first 5 years of substandard drafting. JP clearly changed his philosphy, if he can accept(if not publicly admit) his strategy had flaws, why can’t you?
- Bmac
MW: His strategy did have flaws, sure, everyone’s does, but why can’t you accept that 10 big-leaguers out of your first five years of drafting is very good? Most teams don’t get two legit big-leaguers a year out of their drafts. And I would say that Casey Janssen, the guy who had 30 saves last year, the guy who holds a major-league team’s record for doubles in a season, and the best defensive shortstop in the game are pretty legitimate.
- BmacHi Mike,
If lets say in a month the chances of a play-off spot is very unlikely do you think it’s worth bringing up more players from the minors to give them experience of playing in the majors? I only ask this because I always hear that ‘player X has very little major league experience’. If the jays have no intention of re-signing someone like Zaun then is there any point in playing him the rest of the season just to pad out his own stats? Would Curtis Thigpen benefit from playing every other day for instance?
Keep up the great work !
Johnny
MW: I think that the move would be to bring Robinzon Diaz up for a couple of months to let him get some action, and why not Travis Snider, too?
- JohnnyMW: I don’t think Rios’ or Overbay’s deals look bad at all, and I don’t think J.P. was the driving force behind the Wells deal. He couldn’t find a left fielder within his budget for the first 2 1/2 months of the season better than Stewart/Stairs, but if the hitters had hit that wouldn’t have mattered much. Why are people so down on the Wilkerson/Mench signings? Didn’t cost them anything, could have worked out (but obviously didn’t), but they were better than what they had in the minors.
Mike Overbay is going to make seven Million the next two years and is hitting like David Eckstein. I’m willing to be theres atleast five minor league players that could come do what Overbay is doing for the major league minimum.
You don’t think J.P. was the driving force behind the Wells deal? He’s the GM.
you can say if everyone hit it, it wouldn’t of mattered that Stewart was the best they could find, but if they would of found something better then Stewart it wouldn’t have mattered so much that everyone didn’t hit.
People are down on the Wilkerson/Mench signing because they sucked Mike, Fans would of rather seen someone who is actually good at hitting.
MW: Sorry, I can’t get past the “would of”s.
- Dan MMW: “The Angels run differential has a lot to do with the Blue Jays. It shows you that there’s almost no difference between that 52-win team and this 41-win team, so things aren’t nearly as hopeless as you’d paint them to be. There is no chance that the Jays pull out all the stops to win 85 games this season.”
Well the difference is about 11 wins…..thats a HUGE difference!
MW: Uh-huh. Way to miss the point.
Way to miss the sarcasm!
MW: I didn’t miss the sarcasm.
- KDHi Mike,
My favourite caller last night was the one who suggested Matt Stairs should be the new closer. Good to know some folks are a little delusional.
Anyway, over the last few games I’ve noticed that luck has played a big part in wins for the Jays. You’ve said that a lot about baseball is timing and luck. That couldn’t have been more evident in the 9th on Tuesday’s game when Rolen’s grounder got through the SS’s legs. Let’s hope things keep going the Jays way!
- IanHi Mike,
Got a chuckle out of your answer to a comment in yesterday’s blog about J.P.’s poor drafting record in the first five years: Your response listed the following players either drafted or acquired in deals for draft picks:
Marcum - lucky J.P.’s first choices (those reclamation projects) all failed, ’cause I never heard this guy’s name as a future starter until that happened - but he DOES look like a consistent and effective starter
Hill- hard to knock him when he’s down, but unless he improves he looks like a steady contributor you can plug into the line-up with confidence, sort of like Mark Ellis - but nothing more
Janssen - may amout to something if he can get healthy - who knows?
Lind - How old is this guy? Hasn’t even established himself as a major leaguer, so enthusiasm has to be muted at this point
Overbay - Man, can this guy’ll take a walk if it’s out there! Seems to have a tendency of hitting into double plays and not producing when it matters (or come to think of it, when it doesn’t matter) and, uh, kinda lacks the power you might hope for in a plodding first baseman
Accardo - Had one good year, and the jury is out
McDonald - The greatest defensive shortstop in the history of baseball, from what you’ve been telling us. Can’t seem to hit though, which might explain why he’s a lifelong utilityman.
Scutero - Asset as a bench player; on THIS team he seems to be starting quite a bit
Tallet - This hosehold name may make his mark as a starter?
Mike, come now, do you honestly believe the list of players named above is anywhere CLOSE to being impressive? That these are the stuff of divsion championships?
J.P inherited his best players from Gord Ash draft selections.
Oh, yeah, J.P. did earn his salary by scooping up our catcher Zaunie and making him a regular after years as a back-up. Shrewd guy. Wonder why no one else thought of making him a regular before?
The results over six and a half years speak for themselves, but since apparently wins and losses
don’t tell the whole story (oh yeah, apparently the Jays farms system is ranked last in all of baseball, but that’s another story) a large number of baseball fans are just kinda…missing something only masterminds like J.P. (and apparently yourself) can see?
MW: No, they’re just too busy magnifying the negative for some reason. People like you seem to want the club to fail - or if they don’t want that to happen, they’re almost beside themselves with giddiness when it does, because you don’t like J.P. Ricciardi’s public persona. So congrats!
- Ken“But I know I didn’t hear any callers in the off-season and the spring saying that they thought this was a last-place team.”
Not just that, but I also don’t think anybody was calling in predicting Litsch would be the #2 pitcher shortly after the All-Star break! I do love the kid, but once again some curse we haven’t discovered yet has struck our hard-luck Blue Jays.
Obviously a bit more starting pitching depth would have been nice, but if you can show me starting pitching depth anywhere in the majors right now, I’ll take back my statement that what J.P. put together was pretty darned good — and hey, Parrish-Purcey-Tallet still beats the poop out of, say, Chacin-Ohka-Towers as your 3-5 guys.
- AdamsPost #76 of “The Comeback Kids” reads in part:
“I also dont get why you appear to be more of a “homer” than any other personality following a sports team in this city. Any explanations?”
In my opinion, part of the answer to this is that Mike is simply more “balanced”, as compared to most of the rest of the writers/commenters in Toronto, who appear to be very NEGATIVE.
In fact it seems to me that the chief “raison d’etre” for most of these “personalities” is to call for the head(s) of _______ of ______. (Fill in the blanks, name and team).
In comparison, Mike’s “rationality” comes across sounding like “eternal optomism”.
For my part, I enjoy being able to read a bit of (comparative) optomism, once in a while!
- NormHey Mike,
Definitely not the rotation I pictured in spring training but injuries happen and a time to evaluate some of the club’s depth.
Any idea what ‘normal’ rehab is on rotator-cuff surgery (hoping not the solution but…)? I know it is not a good area to get hurt.
MW: I’d have to look it up, but it’s a while. If he has to have it done, he might be back for spring training, but I don’t think that the likelier route is surgery.
- CameronMike,
Can you put me in touch with J.P., I’d like to see what I can get in return for some Schooner beer.
Your right about expecting more from this team in the pre-seaon. That doesn’t mean I didn’t think the team had some major question marks such as, Did Vernon’s shoulder cause his terrible season, or is he just up and down like that? Would Rios find his power after what seemed like a 2nd half drop off?, Would Overbay return to form from his wrist injurie?, Would Rolen’s power return after shoulder sugery?, How would the HGH affect Zaun?, Could Eck really continue to defy talent with heart?, Would Stewart’s feet hold up? Was Big Frank still a capable DH, and if so, could he start better? Was the 2006 Hill the best Hill can be?
To me there was no question that if this team could hit they were going to be in there. That turns out to be a big IF.
Now we have two awesome pitchers on the DL and a struggling O. Is it possible for the team to ride out this storm? Now without Burrent.
Do you think the struggles of the hitters placed pressure on the two young pitchers and contributed to their injuries?
MW: Now without Burnett? No, I don’t think that the struggles of the hitters contributed to Marcum and McGowan’s injuries. And really, the HGH and Zaun? Wasn’t the Mitchell Report note on him five years old?
- JWMike:
You would make an excellent spin doctor for a political party if you ever wanted to change careers. This one about fans only being disappointed because everyone expected this team to be good is right up there with your classic (and my personal favourite) that the reason they ground into so many double plays is only because they’re on base so much. I think you may have actually convinced a few people with that one.
The reason people thought this team was going to be good was because JP and to some extent yourself have preached for 3 years now that this team was going to be good and contend and there always ends up being some reason they don’t. Notice I didn’t even say 7 years because you’ve given him a pass for the first 4 years on his tenure since they were cutting salary. Say what you want but I have a feeling that if someone called you up before the season and said that the team was going to be a middle of the pack team they wouldn’t be received well by yourself because you would give all the stas to contradict them and tell then the season was early with a lot of baseball to play. I’ll give you that most people didn’t see them as a last place team but at least a team in the top half of the AL that would be close to being in contention around the All Star break given they have a payroll of just under $100 million. When even you yourself “the eternal Blue Jays optimist” states after 91 games that it will be “extraodinarily difficult” for the team to make the playoffs I think it is officially a bad season.
I guess it all comes down to your definition of “good” and I consider a team good when they get close to a playoff spot (within about 7 games which is still far behind in the end) and the Jays really haven’t done that recently.
MW: I’m not going to respond to comments like these anymore.
- Peter B.Mike,
Can you confirm that the Jays fired a blue jays institution?
The of Wayne, the Ice Cold Beer guy?
MW: It’s what I hear.
- Stevie H“In The Big Inning” - dude, that’s my favourite headline to date!!!
WIIIIILLLL NUUUUUR
WIIIIILLLL NUUUUUR
Keep up the great work!
Question - I think BJ Ryan’s entrance presentation is awesome. Vince McMahon would be proud! Why don’t any of the other Jays relievers get the same treatment?
Aneez
MW: Because he’s the closer.
- AneezMike:
A quick question I have for you. I noticed the other day in one of your responses to someone’s question you said that with the money that the Jay’s will have available next year one of the positions they should look at upgrading in 1B and I have to say I was SHOCKED. With all the defending of Overbay you’ve done all year telling us how good a first baseman he is why would you think the Jays would look to upgrade him?
If your answer is just because they should always look to upgrade the team then I believe every position should be looked at shouldn’t they? Other than Lind, Hill and Rios (to a lesser extent) the position players aren’t really young with a potential upside so could use a change in my opinion.
MW: You should always look to upgrade any position that you can, shouldn’t you?
- Peter B.Is Burnett really more coveted than Erik Bedard?
MW: Maybe, but I think that the Mariners will be asking a lot more for Bedard than the Jays will be asking for Burnett.
- TylerI never thought I’d feel sorry for the guy but I do now. No doubt he was hauled up in front of the brass (again) and told to retract his ‘white flag’ statement of a couple of days ago. It was not the right thing to say, but it was the honest thing to say.
At this point he can’t do right for doing wrong and probably has been told not to make further statements without checking first. Ditto trades, as I’ve already posted. I neither like, trust nor respect him. But the decent thing to do would be to let him go now rather than keep around to twist in the wind until September. That, however, is what I think will happen, and twist he will until the very last game.
MW: I love how you actually seem to think that you know what’s going on behind closed doors in the Blue Jays’ front office.
- reyesA rotation of Doc, Litsch, Parrish, Purcey and Tallet! That’s really scary and it’s something very likely to happen. Looks like August and September will be mere formalities. This ships is about to sink. This is arguably the most disappointing season of this decade. So much talent and zero performance and the funny thing is, like every year, they can’t make injury excuses. Overall Jays have been a very healthy team this year, they just stink.
MW: Yeah, but this year the bottom has fallen out because of injuries. At least injuries weren’t the reason they got to the bottom.
- Beburg aka The relief pitcherSeriously though, JP’s drafting the last 2 years have been very impressive, the first 5, not so much.
MW: Yeah, there’s not much to Marcum, Hill, Lind, Litsch, Janssen, Overbay, Accardo, McDonald, Scutaro and Tallet.
- Bmac
I’ve got to stick up for Bmac here Mike. The fact that your using Mcdonald, Scutaro and Tallet is telling in its self. Where is the impact player there? Hill is an Avg. player but he’s a first round pick you should get atleast an avg. player there. Overbay was brought over after he was already algible for arbitration and just that fact the jays are still employing him means they lost that trade.
The pitching is decent but in five years of drafting you need to an impact player especially when you draft sixth overall once and 13th another year I believe.
MW: You all need to find yourselves some bases of comparison.
- Dan MThe Jays just have to keep hitting and plugging away. Alot of talk has been of the upper management waving the white flag on the season. Maybe this will the relax the boys, or give them some extreme motivation to prove the doubters wrong (ala Major League)
Maybe these injuries will uncover some more pitching diamonds in the rough? Lind has responded to being called up and told he is the leftfielder, maybe Purcey and Parrish will respond as well knowing they are going to get regular turns for the next couple of months?
- Aaron KerDid I read somewhere that you don’t think J.P deserves to be fired? Wow, I know he’s your boy, but I think you’re taking allegiance to another level.
J.P is paid to perform. Now unless his mandate is to improve the bottom line, or fill up additional seats by having ‘Twonie Tuesday’ promotions, then he may have been successful. However, as a fan, the only thing I am concerned with, is that he has put a winning team on the field. All the excuses aside, J.P has never put together a winning team in his 7 years. There have been exactly ZERO important games played in September for the Jays. This is not to say he’s been a complete failure, however, his performance does not warrant him to be here any longer.
If you had employees, they would love working for you. Perform at a mediocre level and still retain your job. Way to shoot for the fences :-)
MW: See above.
- BobbyHeard to talking a bit with “the Rog” this morning. Can the Jays really afford to trade AJ now with 2 starters down? I would the only way it would happen is if there is a blow your mind deal presented to them. The schedule up until the trade deadline could go a long way in the Jays getting back in the race by beating the teams within their division.
MW: Of course they can afford to trade Burnett.
- Aaron KerMike,you are correct that so much more was expected of this team, but at what time does the performance outweigh the expectations. JP doesn’t want to blow it up but maybe he’s tying his cart to the wrong horses. Personally I don’t think JP is the guy. He has shown little respect for the fans and really has trouble being believable. Rant aside, question about placing injured players on either the 15 or 60 day DL. does the 60 day allow a team to keep the injured player on the 40 man but also free up a spot to replace him as well without losing anyone?
MW: Yes. But he has to be out two months.
- HowardI must give props to JP for a very enjoyable Wednesdays With JP. I come away impressed with how cooly he handled the hot seat. He was very professional and not at all a “clown.” Truth is, I really like JP as a person but I feel sorry for him as GM because he simply deserves better from his players. I hope this team could turn it around for him down the stretch because it really isn’t fair that one man should take all the shots for the actions of many others. JP if you read this blog I’d like you to know what a class act I believe you are and I’m hoping for your success here in Toronto.
- Vito From HamiltonThe Cito sample size continues to increase in a positive direction! Now 9-8 after 17 games. I understand he now has half the pitching rotation Gibby did, but now that the team can hit, perhaps we can start winning more games like tonight!
I know people are bashing Cito for leaving AJ in too long, but is it much to ask your very highly paid pitcher to at least finish the 6th inning seeing we need a rested bullpen for the NYY series?
MW: I don’t think it’s too long to leave a pitcher in in the 6th inning with a four-run lead.
- MatthewFunny, despite his ERA, it seems Burnett is on pace to get about 16 wins, which would shatter his previous career high of 12. The result of a healthy season?
MW: Indeed.
- RoryHey Mike
You posted a reply yesterday about how the Tribe should consider firing Shapiro and Wedge because of they way the Indians are performing this year. Cleveland won their division last year, so why would you fire those guys for one bad season?
MW: I wouldn’t. I was being sarcastic.
- rickMike, just a quick question. I have looked in the rule books but can’t find anything definitive. Game is tied, bottom of the ninth. Nobody out, man on third. Batter hits a single. Does the batter have to make a move to first or can he stand there and wait for the runner to score? I say he or she has to make an effort to complete the play. Can you enlighten me or give me a website with the answer. Thanks Mike
MW: The batter doesn’t have to move, as long as the runner touches the plate before he (the runner) is thrown out. Why would the batter have to make an effort to run to first?
- AlanHey Mike
It seems you spend a great deal of time vehemently defending JP, which of course is your prerogative. I just don’t completely understand your position as if you look at the big picture, his track record is ordinary at best.
During JPs 7 years, we have not made the playoffs or even been in contention late in the season. The excuses are endless. First, we had to unload and rebuild the roster. Then he stated it was tough to compete with the weak canadian dollar. Then it was unfair because we are in the same division as the Bosox and the Yanks. Then it was injuries, and now its just that everyone is underachieving. Maybe some of those excuses have some validity, but at some point you just have to shut up and produce. I think the thing that frustrated me the most is that this team actually was close, all we need was a couple big bats in the middle of the lineup and we would be contending right now. But no, leave Bonds on the sidelines, we don’t need him.
The minor league system, whether you want to acknowledge it or not, is easily in the bottom half of the league. I am excited about the top 3 guys (Snider, Cecil and Arencebia) but overall the developement of our minor league system has been average at best.
Please JP, no more excuses. Get this team into the playoffs in 2009 or have management find someone that can.
Sign Bonds.
Thanks Mike,
MW: The Bonds thing, I firmly believe, is well out of J.P.’s hands. As for the other stuff - those are all legitimate reasons, not “excuses”.
- rickWow, another craptastic performance from Burnett(big surprise)
Mike how do you suggest that these constant mediocre performances DONT lower his value on the market? Arent teams gonna be scared off by a guy with an ERA well north of 5? What kinda player could we realistically be looking at getting for AJ ?
- ebsHi Mike,
Richie Sexson just got released, do you think the Jays should take a flyer on him ?
MW: He’d be a better DH against lefties than David Eckstein, but does that matter?
- DilsonSeeing as the Mariners just released him, do you think the Jays are interested in Big Sexy?
MW: See above.
- Jay MoneyMike,
First time blogger..
Couple of questions:
1) Would the Jays be interested in Richie Sexston as I notice he got released?
2) I wanted to ask you this before Gibby got fired but I never had a chance so, you always stated its wasnt Gibbys fault the team isnt winning & you say JP is doing a good job & you say this team is contending team (from the start) not now THEN Whos’ fault was it for this mess?
MW: 1 - see above, 2 - ummm, the players.
- Tyson ChandrapaulRichie Sexson is available! He’s mashing lefties to the tune of .344/.423/.623 this year. OK, so the Jays probably aren’t going anywhere, but I’d sure rather see him DH against lefties than Eckstein.
MW: You read my mind.
- darrenAre the Jays going to kick the tires on Sexson now that he’s been released? Or is the team’s ill-fated quest for veteran retread power over, now that JP has pretty much conceded that postseason chances are low?
BTW: Poor Dustin…
MW: Wow, five in a row!
- JimThe Mainers finally released Richie Sexson. I saw a couple of people on the TSN Sporsnet site saying that the Jays should pick him up.
Here in BC we get Mariners games regularly, and it has been embarrassing to watch Sexson hit for over a year now.
To JP …. PLEASE PLEASE don’t pick up Sexson.
Steve
MW: If you only play him against lefties, he’s pretty good.
- SteveWHey Mike
Apologies if this has been asked ten times already..
But I’m not exactly sure what ‘tear in the rotator cuff area’ means. I know you’re not a doctor, but what do you know about the prognosis for this type of thing?
Is this potentially a Jannsen-like, possible career ender?
Does it all depend on the severity of the tear?
MW: I’m not a doctor, but I understand it’s not as bad as a labrum tear.
- James HAny chance of us seeing Sexson? He is hitting .344 with 5hrs, a .423 OBP and .623 against lefties! The Jays have 8 hrs against lefties.
- JWShould the Jays sign Richie Sexson on the cheap and let him be the DH guy? or do you think Sexson is done.
- JeremyHey Mike!
David Purcey taking McGowan’s spot in the rotation is a very good thing. My opinon, Purcey whould of got the call up at some point anywayz (when Aj would of been delt). Let him pitch now, no matter how he does. Look what McGowan did once he was told that he is here to stay in the rotation last year. Purcey is ready for the majors!
MW: He may be. Whould of, though?
- HardeepDo the Jays take a run at Tiexiera next year in free agency? He would fill the DH role adequately, or him and Overbay could share duties at first while the other DH’s. Just a thought, especially since Tex can switch hit.
MW: I’d love to see it happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
- Aaron KerHi Mike
Agut wrenching win but a win nonetheless.It seems that Burnett always has one inning where every mistake he makes gets hit hard.If he gets out of it it’s usually clear sailing but like yesterday it almost cost us the game.The hit Hernandez got into the corner it seemed to me that he didn’t know where the ball went.If you saw the play more clearly can you comment.Man with the injuries the second half pitching lineup doesn’t look to promising.Hopefully Marcum and Mcgowan comeback sooner rather than lateror we uncover some gems like last year.Anyway we are going to need our bats more than ever in the second half.
mario
Go Jayys!!!
MW: Hernandez didn’t know where that ball went, and instead of putting his head down and running, he wasted a few seconds trying to find the ball, and it cost him a double.
- mariocan anyone else see JP sticking to his trend of signing cheap-washed up-praying-to-God-they-hit players.. and sign Sexson? I sure do.
Then again .. he has given up on the season .. so eho knows? lets see if he resists the urge to sign him… my money is on JP making a play for him
- AKFinally, someone pointed out what i have been saying for weeks. Alex Rios since last year’s home run contest has hit 11 homeruns in 163 games. Sad. Your thoughts?
MW: Finally?
- ChrisHey Mike,
Just wanted to comment on the last caller on Jays talk last night.
He was the one who asked the question about strategy: running through the bag at second on a force play to allow a run to score from first.
I think it was a great question and great point. If a player ever did that to win a game or especially win a playoff game in the 9th inning of a time game, that player would become a household name.
Like JP said the play may be named after them. I remember as a kid every time someone dove head first into first base on a grounder we all called the “Chet”, after Chet Lemon.
I hope some players heard that call and try it some day.
MW: I think it would be awesome if someone actually tried it.
- PeterMike,
If it was just the Jays 3 games under in the NL west the season is not over. However, that isn’t the case. 1989 is not walking through that door (tired, I know…). It’s not just that this team hasn’t shown what it takes, but all of the teams under the JP era and the end of Ash era haven’t. The Jays would need to win 12 of 15 just to be in a spot to maybe make a run. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but when did that happen last? This is a .500 team at best given its current roster. Let’s just acknowledge that. It’s not May anymore. Mike, I enjoy your blog and radio work and support your efforts to hold the Chicken Littles at bay, but it’s time.
MW: Stranger things have happened.
- TimI’m confused why the management would decide to push Doc’s start back so that he faces the Yankees. At this point does it really matter? And if you’re trying to win as many games as possible, wouldn’t it make more sense to have your best pitcher (maybe the best in the Majors) pitch as often as possible? I would rather push Doc forward to get an extra start or two out of him than do what they’re doing?
MW: It doesn’t make a difference. It’s not like if Halladay hadn’t been pushed back that he’d have been able to pitch Sunday.
- Chris - Kitchenermike about A.J.What team would want this guy and what would the jays get back for him?
MW: See above
- JoeyHey Mike,
I know the Jays are interested in shortstops but would it not be easier to find a decent second baseman and move Aaron Hill over to short (I’m talking next year of course). He’s absolutely awesome at second but I think his range and solid arm would be far more beneficial at short. He also seems like a guy that is quite tough mentally and would step up to the challenge and not be rattled by it. If Mighty Joe Inglett proves himself for the rest of the year at 2nd (and with his bat, of course), do you think they’d consider it? And lastly, what do you think about the idea? Sorry in advance if it’s been asked before.
MW: It may happen. I think they’d like to find a shortstop because of just how good a second baseman Aaron Hill is.
- Scott BCasey Janssen, Jeremy Accardo, Shannon Stewart, Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan all on the shelf and now I’m reading 4-6 weeks for Vernon Wells… enough to make a Jays Fan ill. At what point does the increasing number of arm injuries to Jays pictures (particularly young arms developed within the organization) cease to be a coincidence or run of bad luck and begin to become a problem within the organization (be it handling/use or development)?
Do you think JP might take a look at Richie Sexson? Bring him in, adding a power bat to the DH mix now that Stairs and Wilkerson could be playing in the field more often?
Thanks Mike
- NickoliWells should feel unlucky. What a terrible way to get injured! I feel for the guy, he really looked like having a 20HR, 85 RBI season despite missing 20-odd games earlier in the year. When he comes back in late August, the season will be over.
As a Jays fan, the only interesting thing left is Halladay and whether he wins the Cy young. A very disappointing season. Nothing went right for Jays. So much talent on the paper and…..
MW: A terrible way to get hurt indeed - stealing third with two out.
- Beburg aka The relief pitcherOk seriosly Doc must be a robot or a mutant or a kryptonian how does that man keep doing what he does without going down with some type of injury…and why the heck would you want to get rid of the Brett Farve of Baseball he’s an ironman (yes he’s missed starts but still)? It looks Marcum and McGowan got a little worn out by pitching so well and so much and hopefully JP and Cito (looks more like Cito right now) will take it easy with the guys and let them recover fully. If McGowan has to be out till mid August or later I say just shut him down for the season if we are still at or under 500 and save that wonderful arm, would you agree Mike?
MW: No, if he’s healthy enough to pitch he should pitch, regardless of where the team is in the standings. Funny, just a couple of years ago Halladay was known as an injury-prone guy.
- NickMy thoughts are that the Jays will have an extremely strong finish.Due to there poor start though they will finish just short of a playoff birth.
- Riley SheaI agree with you Mike..It’s baseball and you never know..The Houston Astros did it a few years ago..They won 36 of their last 46 games and made the postseason in the last game of the season..How about the Minnesota Twins?..They were more then 10 games behind the Tigers in July of 06′ and won the division title that year…
MW: Yep.
- gumpNo props to Brandon League. Sucks, and will aways.
- Vito From HamiltonAfter watching AJ all these years, I’ve come to the conclusion that he’s never going to be better than an average to good pitcher … great stuff, but sometimes, can’t find the strike zone with his offspeed stuff (like last night when he got pounded). I don’t think he’s ever going to find the control needed to become great. For a middling payroll club like the Jays, I don’t think it makes sense to pay someone like that 10M (10%) of your payroll.
It would be better for the Jays to pay a lot more for stars (ie Halladay, Utley, etc), and hope that they can get cheap guys to almost replace Burnett. There’s a lot of guys in the minor leagues who never get a chance, or are late bloomers. You can’t replace a guy like Halladay, but you can luck into guys who can replace Burnett.
MW: It’s funny that people would assess A.J.’s start last night with something like “can’t find the strike zone with his off-speed stuff” when he was thoroughly dominant for five innings, and had an awful seven-batter stretch.
- Alex HMike,
It’s funny that you were just on the air saying the Wells contract was not a bad one and now he is on the shelf AGAIN.
I know this contract won’t cripple the Jays like the Delgado one did, but this still has the potential to be one of the worst contracts ever (Zito will always be the worst). I was happy when he signed it, but very rarely has a position player gone in the tank this bad after a big deal.
By the way, there is something about AJ’s contract that I have not heard anyone mention. He has a partial no-trade to 15 teams. This could be a huge stumbling block, as I am sure you remember how Delgado screwed the Jays with his no-trade.
Wouldn’t it be the Jays luck if they work out a great trade and AJ blocks it?? If that happens and he pitches again at Rogers Centre, they had better post riot police.
MW: You were happy when Wells signed it. No one can see the future, and Wells still has six years to make good on it.
- TomI think that John Parrish could be for the Blue Jays what John Connor was for mankind in Terminator.
Seems like he could be much more consistent than Dustin McGowan.
If anything, the injuries to marcum and mcgowan have paved way for a hero of sorts, perhaps.
Anyways, amazing win tonight, I don’t see how the jays can lose friday night with that much confidence.
MW: Don’t hurt yourself on the roller coaster.
- DanMike, what’s going on? These kinds of exciting victories are just not supposed to happen for Jays fans. Almost feel like a kid again. Mountains of love to Cito!
- Vito From HamiltonYou must be outta your mind. Sexton What’s he ever won? He couldn’t tie Eckstein’s shoes. I hope Eckstein jams it right down your well Mike. He’s made some great plays this year including tonight and I love to see you eat some crow for a change.
MW: I didn’t see Eckstein make any great plays tonight.
- Vito From Hamilton“MW: I love how you actually seem to think that you know what’s going on behind closed doors in the Blue Jays’ front office.”
I’m so glad you like it! But the fact is I do know how large corporations work and I also know how they view employees who shoot from the lip. He opened his mouth one day and contradicted himself a couple of days later. Do you honestly think he did that of his own volition? Because I don’t. I also know how big corporations deal with high-profile underachievers. The fact that the Gaston hire was trumpeted over and over as being Ricciardi’s idea tells you it wasn’t. Because he’s the GM. He’s supposed to come up with these ideas, that’s his job. So why the tiresome iteration of ‘JP came to me on the Tuesday…’?
A large proportion of the fan base is baying for Ricciardi’s blood and you don’t think the front office is aware of that and ready to give them that? You don’t think they remember that he was booed in that ‘Fan Appreciation Day’ debacle last season? That may have been their first indication of how the fans felt about the GM, but it certainly wasn’t their last. If the team had won, as he suggested they would do, this half-season, he may have been able to buy himself some goodwill from the fans. But they didn’t so he couldn’t. The only way he keeps his job is if we win the Word Series, and tonight’s great efforts notwithstanding, we probably won’t achieve that. If that’s the case, then it doesn’t make a lick of sense to allow him free rein on trades.
MW: If pro sports teams were run according to the whims of the fans, they’d never win.
- reyesI read the post about AJ’s partial no-trade. Is this true? Does he have this in his contract?
If so, do you know what teams are on his no-trade list?
MW: I don’t.
- MitchHi Mike,
I know Downs is having a great year out of the pen, but I remember a few years ago he had a few spot starts towards the end of the season and he did well. Any chance he’ll get some starts as well as Tallet?
The arm injuries to M and M are a big worry. It’s interesting going back, looking at stats from guys in the 70’s who would pitch 250-300 innings year after year until they finally broke down. Pitchers these days seem to break down pretty rapidly without even logging those sorts of innings.
MW: It’s impossible to figure who is going to get hurt and when. I’d love to see them go back to the 4-man rotation and have guys pitch 300 innings again.
- Oz RobRe: Post 74 and your response.
Mike,
I work in a scientific industry where strong evidence is key. This isn’t a small sample size we’re looking at with this organization. I would say the opposite of the Rays this year. They may do some damage, but it means not so much long term. I think we know enough about our Jays to say it’s a pattern. “Stranger things have happened”. I don’t buy that at all.
MW: You’re welcome not to, but it’s true.
- Timmike, I disagree that everyone expected this team to be good. read griffin and blair, they didn’t.
what is your explanation for the dramatic dropoff in sexson after 2 monster years? steroids? he is the perfect example of why you don’t give any player 7 year deals (ie wells) because you can’t expect any player to be consistent for that long.
MW: I don’t think steroids turn a .210 hitter into a monster.
- roccoMike, your answer to Post #56 is (I believe) somewhat incomplete.
The question specifies that there are none out, and a runner on third, when the batter “singles”.
First of all, it is not a “single” until the batter/baserunner reaches first base safely, so if he makes no attempt to run to first (why would he not?) he does not get credit for a hit in his stats.
Secondly, whether or not the batter/baserunner is thrown out (for the FIRST out) will have no impact on whether or not the run scores — if for some reason he wants to wait and share the celebration, instead of “getting a hit”, he can do so (although I’m sure it has not happened, and never will!)
MW: To the first point, you’re just being picky. The commenter was asking if a batter “gets a hit”, and I took it to means its the ball in a place where the reasonable expectation is a single. Of course he’d have to touch first in order to be credited with a hit. Secondly - that’s exactly what I said.
- NormMike
Regarding Shulmans Comments. He basically said that he was a decent pitcher but that his value in the League was lacking. He said the worst thing may be for the jays not to trade him and have him stay. He felt that alot of teams liked his stuff but that most dont think he will ever be more then an 11 game winner with a 5 ERA. Was really surprising to hear. If you didnt hear him dont worry about it, i dont expect you to comment on what you hear second hand.
MW: I can’t believe that Shulman said that most teams don’t think he’ll ever be more than an 11-game winner with a 5 ERA, especially since his career ERA was 3.76 going into this season. There’s no way he said that.
- SeanI didn’t like the Wells deal when he signed it but even I’m not going to say it was a very bad deal based on subsequent injuries.
In fact, I like the deal better now than then because the market has continued to close the gap. i still think he’ll be overpaid for a couple of seasons but if he’s here through the whole deal it will be a reasonable contract in the out years if he is at least a .800ish OPS CF
The fact that he get’s hurt has nothing to do with the quality of the deal.
Oh, and Tom is forgetting Mike Hampton too. ;)
MW: Yikes. I had forgotten that one, too. I think the Marlins may still be paying him.
- WillRainDear Mike, I’m a 16 year old fan, who’s got a great solution for the Jays hitting problems, and his name is PRONK. Travis Hafner’s days in Cleveland are numbered and this guy is a straight up #4 in the order masher, i know he had an off season last year, and he’s been injured most of this year, but cleveland is going to look to deal him, and his stock is incredibly low right now. He’s worth a chance from J.P. just because of his consistancy in the past (3 .300 +, 30+homeruns,and 100 RBI seasons in a row). This guy is the real deal, and Accardo or League packaged with Russ Adams, would be a great move.
Man i thought it was possible just to email you
MW: It’s not. I don’t think they could get Hafner for Accardo or League and Russ Adams, but regardless, they already have plenty of people who have been underachieving. Why add another?
- Jesse ColauttiI personally was not happy when Wells signed that contract. I thought he used his leverage (stating how much he would love to play in Texas with his friend Michael Young) to get himself a deal that was largely inflated for a player who was coming off a career season. Wells has historically been a ‘very good’ player who has thrived in two seasons when he had a power bat protecting him.
Unfortunately the Jays paid him ’superstar’ player money, and he is not able to live up to the contract. I am always weary whenever ownership forces a GM to sign a player, as it rarely turns out well for the team from a financial sense (see: Arod in Texas experiment). I do think the Jays got a great deal on the Rios contract at the time of the signing. If he would have put up the numbers he averaged the last two seasons, he would have been able to command much more as a free agent. A GM cannot predict a player’s future but JP and the Jays (although I think that upper management was instrumental in signing Wells, JP has stated that he has control over all baseball decisions so the blame still falls with him) severely handicapped their future economic payroll structure with the Wells contract.
MW: You do realize that there are still 6 1/2 years left on Wells’ contract, right?
- Dave JHey Mike!
When A. Hill come s back, Why dont the Jay s try Inglett at short stop?
I think he has play some third, so the the transaction should’nt be that hard.
MW: The transition wouldn’t be incredibly hard, but Inglett’s not a good shortstop, from all indications. I think that if Joe continues to hit, the Jays are more likely to move Hill back to short.
- HardeepMike with all due respect i dont remember word for word what he said, but i do know he used the words 11 game winner and 5 era in the same sentance as AJ Burnett. Blair was there, as was kelly, if you need to ask them. All i was asking as for your feedback, not to be shot down.
MW: I didn’t shoot you down, I gave you my feedback.
- SeanI’ve gotta say that I don’t understand the thinking in bringing up Travis Snider, a 20 year old, who has done worse at every level he’s gone up in the season. Let him stay in the minors longer until he actually starts to hit the ball well. Don’t start his arbitration clock so that he reaches free agency before the prime age of 27.
MW: He has long since started to hit the ball well in AA - why not give him a shot? J.P. Ricciardi can’t worry about when he’s going to be a free agent. If he were to come up tomorrow, he’s be a free agent after the 2014 season.
- SteveHey Mike,
As I read along the previous posts I noticed somebody mentioned Travis Hafner and thought he would be a very good fit for the Jays. So, what do you think the Jays would have to give up in order to get him and would his hefty salary be a problem in the future? You mentioned that he is underachieving but the guy is a power hitter (exactly what the Jays need) and despite this year has had 4 years of 100+ RBIs. That must be good for something.
Thanks
MW: When Hafner was at his best, he was particularly awesome. But this is a guy who went from 42 homers in ‘06 to 24 in ‘07, despite nearly 100 more plate appearances. His OPS dropped 260 points, and was down another 170 from there before he got hurt this season, a season in which he was on pace to hit 14 homers had he stayed healthy. There are PLENTY of big warning signs there, more than enough to not want to give up a bunch of talent for a guy who will make $14M a year through 2013.
- James R.Did you seriously question why the Jays would want to add Hafner? The point is moot since Cleveland won’t trade him while his value is at its lowest, but take a look at Hafner’s career stats.
And realize that he blows any Jays’ hitter right out of the water.
MW: He sure does, careerically, but see above.
- Garyhttp://www.fan590.com/onair/primetimesports/media.jsp?content=20080709_184925_14012
Mike at the 4 minute mark he states what i told you. Just an FYI
“I think the most important thing this team needs to do is to trade AJ burnet, just incase he doesnt opt out of his contract. Id be worried that hed not opt of his contract, win 11 games and have an ERA of 5 again”
Just an FYI as i said.
MW: OK, that’s a fair statement, and a definite worry for the Blue Jays if Burnett continues to be as bad in the second half of this season as he has been in the first half. However, there’s nothing to lead one to believe that he will be.
- SeanHiya,
Thanks for the apology but it isn’t necessary (#6). It’s my fault for misreading your response. You’re right that I didn’t state I was an amateur (#17). I figured the simplicity of the question would have given that away, and didn’t want to waste your time with superfluous conversation (the irony).
For what its worth I reached the same conclusion as to why my sac fly idea was foolish of my own accord. Lots of work to be done yet but I am making progress.
I think I’ve taken up enough of your time so I’m going to keep reading and learning, and hopefully in the future I’ll be able to post more interesting/challenging questions or ideas. At the very least you have my word I’ll never suggest trading AJ for a bag of balls or hiring Ernie as General Manager.
Best Wishes
PS - Was that not a sweet play by Rolen in the first inning. Wow!
MW: Scott Rolen is something else. Keep watching and listening!
- CarsonIn Response to your comments on comment #98:
“MW: You do realize that there are still 6 1/2 years left on Wells’ contract, right?”
Yes I do realize that and it doesn’t comfort me. The fact that Wells contract is backloaded makes it extremely difficult to move him as teams will be scared off by his drastically increasing salary. If Wells turns his performance around in a positive way I will be the first to admit I am wrong. However, I doubt we will ever again see him attain the numbers he did in 2006. Also, I always try to treat you with respect so please do the same.
MW: I appreciate it, but you must admit that you’re jumping the gun by quite a bit dumping on a contract that is only 1/14th of the way done. Why do you doubt we’ll ever see him have another season like he did in 2006? He’s only 29.
- Dave JMike,
No problem,
Im not one of those people thats
makes things up lol.
Either way thanks for the feedback!
MW: But you indicated in the first post that he said major-league GMs were worried that he’d be a long-term 11-game winner with an ERA of 5.00, which is what I couldn’t believe he said. I didn’t think you were making stuff up.
- SeanHey Mike,
Love reading your blog and its great that you answer our questions most of the times.
I was wondering if you see this roster for the jays in the future.
Arecibia C
Cooper 1B
hill 2b
ahrens SS
(someone) 3b
Snider LF
Wells CF
Rios RF
Lind DH
Hallday
Marcum
Mcgowan
Cecil
Purcey/Litsch
the someone in 3B is there because i couldnt think of anybody and its futile to think of a person we might sign/trade for/draft.
To me that roster looks pretty intimidating. Snider, Lind, Cooper, Arencbia should be ablet to hit along with Wells and rios.
What do you think?
MW: I think that it’s really easy to get excited about hotshot minor-league prospects before you see them play. I have no idea if a line-up with Arencibia, Cooper, Ahrens, Snider and Scott Campbell will be intimidating in the major leagues, but I look forward to finding out.
- HarryMike,
The Statement that Shulman made was a fear that he would finish the season with a 5ERA and 11 wins once again, and that that would be a fear for most GMS. He didnt use the statements together, but he intamated that was a huge reason that his market value is decent, but not high. I was shocked to hear him say that he thinks that Burnett may not opt out, as i cant see that happening no matter what happens at the end of the season.
- SeanThe reason I think that Wells won’t reach his 2006 numbers again is because 4 of his past 5 seasons have been decent but not close to his .300+, 30 homer, 2006 campaign. That combined with his increasing injuries over the past 2 seasons would lead me to believe that he is unlikely to break out again. As you can tell, I am a fan of projecting using a system similar to Ron Shandler, the Pecota system, or Bill James; using past numbers to predict future success. Their methods are far from fool proof but they tend to be fairly accurate.
Also, I should note that I am a fan of Wells and am not one to blame him for his perceived lack of effort as that often happens with atheletes who make things look easy (Devon White looked effortless in the field because his range was far superior to other CFs). My only issue with Vernon is that he will not be able to give the Jays the return they need on his contract to enable them to compete. Hopefully the Jays can sign a big bat in the offseason to get Vernon the protection he needs (although I just finished reading “The Baseball Economist” which asserts ‘protection’ is actually a myth). The Jays made the mistake of paying Wells the salary of a batter who is the primary focus of an offense, when in reality he is likely better being the secondary offensive threat in a lineup.
- Dave JMike
Couple questions that have been bothering me for some time and absolutely no one knows.
1) What’s the deal with Jaspe? Seems to be no talk about him at all. I know he was suspended, but he’s back and killing it. And absolute rocket for an arm. Had a pretty good year average and OBP wise last year. He’s not getting any younger why not promote him? Or is he just a Diaz v2? Even so, seems to have one of the best arms in the league. He’s thrown out over 50% of runners, where I would guess the league average to be about 20-25%. Liuzza is also pretty good around 50%, but besides them, no one is really even close.
2) Why is Diaz in GCL? I know he was hurt, but he now has played 12 games in GCL?
Only thing I can think of is a log jam, and though quite off the wall, to work with Jimenez and the other catcher from DR, but that doesn&#