1:03 AM Eastern
Well, there’s a first time for everything, and tonight was just that on a couple of levels. First, the Blue Jays got themselves a walk-off win – first time since last September. Second, the Jays trailed by four runs in a game and came back to win – first time in 13 months (last was June 5, 2007 against the then-Devil Rays, that six-run bottom of the ninth, remember?). Third the Jays won a game that they trailed after six innings. OK, that wasn’t the first time this season, but they’d only done it once before, which is nuts.
This was a good win for the Jays, regardless of the fact that the winning run was handed to them by a pair of Baltimore errors in the bottom of the 9th (the first error wasn’t a big issue – Rios would have scored from second on the Bynum boot just as easily). They were down a bunch early, lost their starter four innings in, and rallied with a HUGE hit with the bases loaded and two out, a situation in which we have seen the Jays go wanting time after time after time this season. Alex Rios provided the pop – a three-run triple in the bottom of the 7th, a 3-2 pitch drilled into the gap in left-centre. Vernon Wells followed with a grounder into the 5-6 hole that Brandon Fahey dove for and smothered, but there was no chance for him to throw Wells out. Never mind bases loaded and two out – how many times have we seen them fail three times with the bases loaded and nobody out?
The Dome felt just as dead going into the bottom of the 7th as it had in any other game in which the Jays were trailing this season, and the Jays looked just as flat and “disinterested.” They look that way, and it feels that way, when a team isn’t hitting. This time, they got up off the mat and won a ballgame. It was kind of interesting, though, how loud the sparse crowd was when good things happened. The announced attendance was just over 23,000, but at game time it looked like there were easily fewer than 15,000 people in the building. But when Wells scored Joe Inglett with the two-out single in the 1st to tie the game, they were pretty loud, and when Rios hit his triple, it was as loud as I’ve heard it in this place in a long time, including the Cubs series when it was almost full. Good for the leather-lungs, the real fans who come out thick or thin.
I heard one loud dude from the outfield seats, I think in the 3rd inning when the O’s scored a pair to go up 3-1. I think he said something like, “this is incredibly dissatisfying.” I enjoyed that quite a bit.
It’s pretty ironic that the Jays would win a ballgame in this fashion today, because today was the day that both Cito Gaston and J.P. Ricciardi went as far as they ever have in saying that they don’t think this team is going to succeed this season. And by succeed, I mean make the playoffs. Did they actually come out and say “we’re done, it’s not going to happen”? No. But……….
In his pre-game scrum, Gaston talked about the upcoming schedule, how the Jays have to face the Orioles and Yankees, then go to Tampa, hit Texas and play a couple of series against the Red Sox in the upcoming weeks. He said it was a particularly daunting stretch, and while they could use it to gain some ground against division opponents, it’d be tough. He added that turning the hitters around could take weeks or months. I definitely walked away from that thinking a white flag was waving.
Ricciardi was even clearer in his statement. When talking about the fact that he expects that the team can play better he said, “Now does that mean we’re going to be a playoff team? No, chances are probably not good that way.” The G.M. added that he’d be “foolish not to listen and be open-minded” to offers on players who don’t fit the long-term plan, or who aren’t going to be in Toronto long-term (like Burnett, Eckstein and Zaun, and maybe Stairs for example).
J.P. also mentioned that Travis Snider and J.P. Arencibia could very well be September call-ups this season. He went on to say that he’d like to see David Purcey get a long look at this level, as opposed to the pair of one-offs that he’s had – though I assume he meant in place of a traded A.J. Burnett, not an injured Dustin McGowan.
McGowan will have an MRI done on his sore right shoulder Wednesday morning. I can’t imagine that he’ll be able to make his next scheduled start, Sunday against the Yankees, no matter what they find. So it certainly appears that will be Purcey’s day.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk. A solid night, save for the one guy who thought he trapped me in a contradiction. What a waste of a good 27 seconds that was. Enjoy:
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Tomorrow – Wednesdays with J.P.! He told me today that last week, his son’s Little League game was moved and pushed back two hours, which is why he couldn’t make it. He’ll be here tomorrow, though.
Comments are encouraged, as always, and I appreciate that the amount of pure hate has dropped off lately, save for Bruno. But there’s always an outlier, right?
Click here to subscribe to Wilner's blog
Hey Mike….
The caller tonight that started with the trade debate about AJ. He asked you whether you thought AJ would OPT out of his contract and u said something to the effect of “without a doubt”.
You’re right he will OPT out of the contract but then he went on to suggest that u think he should be traded.
Yes u didn’t say this and yes the caller clearly was an “idiot” but try not to buy into this hanging up and calling the caller an idiot.
The guy was obviously half wacked and really wasn’t even approaching the level of debate that you’re capable of.
In the future just please say “Thanks for the call” or ” I disagree” and then give your opinion.
Remember no matter how painful it is to admit this, “The customer is always right”.
Love the talk and the blog Mike……
MW: The customer is not always right – glad to hear you’re getting your money’s worth!
- BrentHi Mike –
Nice game tonight. However, I’m still disappointed at the season and irritated to see that the teams like the Brewers and Rays enjoying good times while we’re struggling.
Anyway, with these two big trades in the NL Central and with us having some guys like AJ and Eckstine that can be traded (and perhaps other guys), I took a look at our minor league guys to see what minor leaguers could be packaged or could make their way to the bigs in a year or two. In doing so, some names besides the obvious ones jumped out just by their stats. I have not seen them play. The obvious ones as you have mentioned in your previous blogs – Arencebia, Cecil, Campbell, Snider and Purcey. Here are some names that popped out and I’m wondering if you could tell us more about them –
1. Edgar Estanga at Lansing
2. Brian Dopirak at Dunedin
3. Kyle Ginely at Dunedin
Thanks, Mike.
Good job with the show and the blog. I appreciate that I can interact as a Jays fan … it’s made this season a bit easier to bear.
MW: I’ve never seen any of those guys play, unfortunately, but you can call J.P. tonight and ask him about them.
- Tmike, how long do you think a gm deserves to keep his job without winning 90 games? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? just wondering where exactly you think the line should be drawn.
MW: I think to make any sort of determination about that, you have to look at the big picture. And number of wins isn’t the big picture.
- rocco
so what is the big picture mike if it isn’t wins? I thought that was the purpose of running a baseball team: to win games.
MW: That definitely is the purpose of running a baseball game, but there are some factors that are beyond anyone’s control. That’s why you look at the big picture.
- roccoI guess there is a first time for everything.
Can I ask you for a really big favour? at least it is for me. I will not be able to call after the game tommorrow and I really want to know what JP thinks of acquiring Dallas McPherson. We have all suggested on one of the Jays forums that the Jays can probably get McPherson for one of the catchers plus Parrish or a reliever. Now, this seems like a good possibility with one of the Marlins catchers going on the DL (Treanor I believe)
This will be much appreciated.
MW: J.P. won’t talk about players under contract to other teams – even moreso now.
- Anonymouswhy lift Lind for Wilkerson in the 9th?
Better arm?
Veteran?
MW: Better defender.
- MCMike
How many wins does this one count for?
MW: Is there a reason you’re asking this?
- SimonDo you think it is a given that the Jays will exercise the club option on Barajas? It will only cost $2 million — seems like a steal given his performance this year.
I don’t have strong opinions on this, but I found it interesting that you were the only person I respect that thought that the Indians got a good deal for Sabathia. Keith Law just thought it was stupid and the Indians rushed it. If he walks, the Brewers get two draft picks anyways.
It seems that everyone agrees that Billy Beane got a great deal of players for Harden. Now the question around baseball is what will A.J. Burnett fetch? It seems that only Toronto thinks “not much” as fans on contending teams blogs are drooling about his stuff. I hope JP fleeces someone and does not take the first low ball offer.
MW: I’m sure J.P. won’t take the first lowball offer. I think the Jays will probably exercise their option on Barajas – keep him around and have him tutor whichever of the kids makes the team. Keith knows more about the prospects than I do, but I really like Matt LaPorta’s bat.
- Jim BMike,
not sure you’re aware but on Friday, the van Terry Fox toured Canada in will be @ the Rogers Centre.
http://www.tourofhope.ca/toh/
Pretty cool, I think.
I remember years ago when they had that “contest” to name the dome my Mom submitted the name the Terry Fox Dome. I still think that would have been a great idea.
MW: Very cool.
- Jasonhi mike,
I was wondering why Cito brought Downs in to walk Roberts. Seems to me that you’d want Fraser walk him to load the bases, bringing the man in from the bullpen to fire strikes. What’s your take on that particular play?
A come from behind win, hopefully a sign of things to come.
thanks,
MW: I was wondering the same thing, too. I’d prefer that the outgoing reliever be the one to issue the intentional walk.
- jasonHello Mike
A great game for the Jays last night. It reminds me of the Jays two years ago when they had a good offence and you never say die, even when they trailed 3 to 4 runs going into the late innings.
Interesting call last night about your having a great job. You are right, it would be a lot of fun to talk and write about things you have incredible passion for.
Great job with the calls and the blog, my, it is hard work… I can’t imagine answering those e-mails, including mine, day in, day out
Keep it up!!
MW: Thanks!
- francisHi Mike,
I’ve been noting your comments about the blog,lately, and it is so time consuming without the appropriate remuneration that, might I be so bold as to suggest, you change the blog to “Mike’s mailbag” and just answer legitimate questions and throw out all the crap.
You could answer mail Monday’s and/or Thursday’s (or something at least a little regular) which are typical days off. This would be more like the Jordan Bastien thing on the Jays site.
And/or the blog itself should be more “open” to the others if they want to write to each other and when they get a bit too goofy you just cut them off or otherwise censor them. You wouldn’t have to actually participate every day. I still (although most appreciate it) can’t see why you invest so much time into the blog and get into arguments/debates with 100+ almost every day!
It’s been a great gesture on your part but I’ll certainly understand if changes are made
MW: We shall see.
- BRick in OakvilleHey Mike,
Turning point of the season?
One can hope and dream …
Wayne.
- WayneI hope you took the opportunity to explain to JP that it was only July 8th, the All Star break hasn’t even happened yet and there are still 72 games remaining.
MW: J.P. said basically the same thing I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks now – that it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult for this team to make the playoffs.
- Peter B.Mike … I still think that the players that litter this lineup are overrated, and a complete overhaul needs to be done, and I know you are a huge JP supporter, but the atmosphere around the club must change as well. Most of these guys were when in Rome, do as the Romans do type of guys.
Zaun – waiver wire pickup
Overbay – has never played an important game
Hill – one day maybe
Eckstein – as long as he was surrounded by very good players, he was the straw that stirred the drink, but then that was a few years ago too.
Rolen – definitely wasn’t the catalyst in any lineup, good player, leader? No…..
Stairs/Scutaro/Inglett … good bench guys, should not be commanding time away from good starters if they had them.
Wells .. seems we have signed this guy and he is like a Carlos Delgado, can hit when the games don’t mean much.
Rios … didn’t see this coming, seems like he has ADHD, baseball does not seem to be his focus. Appears to need to be paid a lot less to be focused.
Good Pitching Staff, Halliday is in the top 5 in the majors, all else are good at filling in.
JP is like a loaf of bread, there is a reason that bread has a best before stamp on. JP is the face of the franchise. We need a new face.
MW: The only one I agree with you on is Zaun. I like the Overbay – has never played an important game one, though. Has Halladay? Did I miss that one?
- BobThe white flag was waved in June when they hired Cito and the retired gang!!
- ChrisMike,
You incorrectly answered a drunk guy’s question during last night’s show.
You listed Jays who were free agent eligible at the end of this season. At the end, drunk guy asked if that was everyone and you said yes.
You neglected to mention the biggest one of them all – Scott Rolen.
As I’m sure you know, pursuant to the CBA as a veteran traded in the midst of a long term contract signed with another team, Rolen can demand a trade at season’s end and if its not honoured he can then declare free agency.
I suspect this isn’t mere trivia either. Why wouldn’t an old school vet who’s used to playing in great baseball cities want out from a moribund franchise with a moribund fan base, with a GM now considered a “joke”?
Anyway I’m sure this was merely an oversight and not meant as JP propaganda such as when you used to claim Toronto was “small market” and of course, your more recent suggestion JP never had a five year plan.
MW: I appreciate your snark, but I’m of reasonable certainty that Rolen agreed to waive that right when the trade was made this past winter, in exchange for a pick-up of 2010 or some such. Regardless, that trade demand isn’t much of a hammer. I believe that a player becomes a free agent under that scenario if he’s not traded by March 15th, which is not a good time to be a free agent. I have never claimed that Toronto was “small market”, just small revenue. And, of course, there was no five-year plan.
- ProkopecWE’LL GET EM NEXT YEAR!!!
GO JAYS GO!!!
YAYYY!!!
TORONTO FOREVER!!!!
….shoot me
- slobberfaceHi, Mike:
I’ve just read a note that said (in respect to Ryan Church) that “tests on his brain came back negative” — how bizarre is that!!!??
MW: That’s really bad news for Church!
- NormMike
I do read the blog every day and enjoy it.
I have a real concern about Aaron Hill. We sure need him and will be a lot less without him. My concern is that he might be another Corie Koskie. What do you think the Jays would do if he doesn’t return?
MW: They’d have to find a new second baseman.
- Richard ArmstrongHi Mike,
First time poster on your blog that I daily enjoy reading and listening now with the Jays Talk podcast (which is particularly convenient for me since I belong to the rare species of French Blue Jays fans and I need to sleep around 5 AM during the show ).
Anyway, I have a quick question for you about AJ Burnett. Assuming he either gets traded now, but for no pitching prospect that could be ready by next year, or simply opts out at the end of the season, will the Jays be confortable filling in his rotation spot with Purcey (or Janssen if he ever comes back)? Or do you believe they will look at the free agent market or maybe a trade in order to get a #2 quality starting pitcher (Harden, Bedard-like)? The command issues Purcey has faced when called up and the fact that McGowan is not having the kind of breakout year some were hoping for (home-road splits are weird), are a bit of a concern for me.
I hope my English was correct enough. Keep up the excellent work!
MW: The English was fine, though you slipped a French word in there. The Jays would be happy with Halladay, Marcum and McGowan as their 1-2-3, assuming that Marcum and McGowan are healthy, so I don’t think they’d go after a big-ticket pitcher. It appears as though they’re going to audition Purcey and Parrish this season, and maybe even Brian Tallet, to see if they have something for next year.
- Fred from FranceMike,
Vernon Wells’ contract is not “fair market value” because there was no market. The other guys you compare him to like Soriano and Hunter were free agents when they made their millions. Wells was still under contract with the Jays–he was only negotiating with Toronto. Soriano and Hunter could leverage one team into paying more than another. Wells could not. They Jays merely wildly outbid themselves on him.
It’s the same reason why Burnett is making about the same amount of money as Halladay. AJ was a free agent. Roy was not.
It’s not a small point.
Sure, you might say, the Jays had to pay him that much or he would have walked, to which I say, big deal. They still could have bid on him as a free agent like the other 29 MLB teams, and also would have had the luxury of taking that money and bidding on other players had Vernon signed elsewhere. (And I won’t even mention another off year and his shoulder surgery would have meant he could have been signed for smaller Andruw Jones type deal.) That’s how the “fair market” works.
MW: OK, sorry – I should have said “the going rate” instead of “fair market value”.
- MichaelThe optimist in me is thinking that these statements are just a ploy to take the pressure off the team (especially the hitters).
When the pressure is on–especially in the late innings it seems both the bullpen and the bats falter (last night notwithstanding). Over the previous two seasons when it was thought the Jays might have a shot they scuffled through the summer months (esp. after the ASG) due to injury or some other reason but once the pressure of the pennant race is completely off, the Jays relax and hit the ball better.
Last season they finished up 9-4 batting .269/.349/.428 (.369 with RISP) after hitting .260/.322/.409 to that point of the season post All Star break, and in 2006 after hitting .265/.324/.426 after the All Star Game, heated up at the end batting .302/.361/.486 (.295 with RISP) over the last 17 games winning 12.
In both cases, nothing was riding on the game insofar as the post season was concerned and they were merely playing out the string. In that pressure-free environment the bats loosened up–maybe Gaston and Ricciardi are trying to recreate that pressure-free “Nothing is riding on this boys–just go out and have fun” environment earlier in the season to get the bats going.
With the upcoming schedule there would be no better time to inform the troops that nothing is riding on those games–they went 11-6 against the Yankees and Bo Sox under those circumstances in 2006 and 2007.
You don’t want to know what the pessimist in me is thinking–I’d hate to get banned from the blog after only two posts.
Best Regards
John
MW: It’s as good a suggestion as any. Regards accepted.
- John B.Needless to say, a much needed win for this team. Season conceded or not, you could see the look on the faces of the players that this was somewhat of a relief. Errors or not, we deserved this! :)
Just a thought, but why not include a link to the box score of the game (or the box score itself) with your blog entries?
MW: Honestly? It’s too much work.
- JeffMike,
What gives with the Jays? Are they going to be like the Maple Laffs — once the pressure to win is off (ie. management has waved the white flag), they’ll start playing better. Teasing us with glimpses of the team they should/could be?
MW: The Leafs don’t do that.
- ken cuthbertsonOk Rolen and Overbay are NOT going to get better! Rolen is the master of the pop up to 2nd base with runners on. When are the management or Mr. Wilmer going to see these guys are plain on a downward spiral in their careers? If you think they’ll magically get better I think there is a job for you in a Benny Hinn church somewhere. With these guys as our corners adios til 2012! These guys couldn’t even hit on Wilners softball team!
MW: You don’t really mean that.
- tonyMMI was thinking about Alex Rios during the game and how everyone is dissatisfied with him and thinking that he is slumping. Now being the team leader in any offensive category with this team is nothing to stick your chest out about, but I heard some interesting stats from the broadcast.
Only Jay with over 100 hits, leads the team in doubles with 24? Now has 21 stolen bases. He is a tremendous defensive player in right or centre. Everyone would probably like to see an extra 1 front of his HR numbers (14 instead of 4), but it hasn’t happened yet.
Looks like Parrish and Purcey are going to show what they are made of in the series against the Yanks. It will be nice to finally play them at home. This divisional stretch around the All – Star break could be what the Jays need to climb back in the race. They will have to get on some kind of roll to do it.
Any word on Marcum?
MW: J.P. said Marcum is still on track to take the fifth start after the all-star break, but Cito was backing off that a bit.
- Aaron KerWell, the amount of hate has dropped off because apathy has kicked in. The team is toast, again, and we are getting some good weather. People just don’t care anymore.
I for one railed long and hard against your incessant, blind optimism, but have given up. I don’t watch/listen to the Jays anymore unless Halladay is pitching, and I certainly don’t read your blog every day like I used to.
I, among many others, posted months ago that this team was awful, and the GM and the manager should be fired. You ridiculed us.
Well, we were right, and you were wrong.
Maybe next season things will be different, but not until the arrogant liar who is the GM is history.
MW: You were right and I was wrong? I don’t see that as having been proven. Especially since it can’t, kind of. I mean, if they improve the rest of the way, then either I was right that the team is not awful, or you were right that the manager should have been fired, but how to prove which? If they don’t improve, then you were right that the team is awful (though 5-10 games under .500 isn’t really awful, just bad), but I was right that the manager didn’t need to be fired.
- Paul BHmmmmmm, I wonder why JP might call up Snider and JP A.
Wonder if he’s trying to say hey bosses, don’t forget I drafted these guys, please don’t fire me!
Seriously though, JP’s drafting the last 2 years have been very impressive, the first 5, not so much.
MW: Yeah, there’s not much to Marcum, Hill, Lind, Litsch, Janssen, Overbay, Accardo, McDonald, Scutaro and Tallet.
- BmacHey Mike, long time..just curious what you think Canadas team will look like at the upcoming world baseball classic ? Pitching, Defence, and Lineup..Thanks!
MW: Answered that a couple of weeks back.
- Nicky ZHi Mike,
Here’s a trade scenario for you . . . AJ to the Phils for AAA first baseman Andy Tracy (bats LH, 14 HR, 56 RBI, .300, .483 OBP) and AA shortstop Jason Donald, 11-43-.301, .382 OBP) Both players are blocked at the ML level and both would address need sthe Jays have.
Whada ya think?
MW: Donald I like, but Tracy is essentially valueless. He’s 35 years old and a career AAA guy.
- ken cuthbertsonSince All-Star game is coming up I was wondering if we could have our own All-Star team right here in this blog. All regulars here are qualified and positions are up for grabs. I am the set-up man, 8th inning is mine. Mike will lead-off and play shortstop. Vito I think will make a good DH. Let’s make a team of all faithfuls and challenge the Jays. We’ll be darn good.
- Beburg aka The relief pitcherOh to be in a playoff race like the Brewers… you have to be good to give managment insentive to spend the money. For all those looking for the big deal to get the final piece (the big scary bat) look to our record for your answer. It isn’t going to happen.
- JeffMike,
- DennyGlad to see this year the team being a little more realistic about a playoff spot. Its really better for the team’s future to build for next year. Ship out spare parts and bring in whatever assets you can. I only see this team getting better, their pitching is young and their best hitters are still in their prime with help on the way.
Way to wave the Rogers flag Mike ;) You do know that the only way for ‘Real’ fans to act on their increadible dissatisfaction with the team is to not shell out their hard earned dollars for overpriced tickets for a team that has a high probability of dissapointing. Rogers doesn’t care if the Jays win or lose unless it affects their bottom line. If that was different, I might change my mind. Good for the fans that made it down to the dome, I’m sure they enjoyed the FIRST walk-off win of the season. The rest of us thousands of fans who listen to Jerry and Alan and yourself, will keep supporting the jays day in and day out, and will gladly show up to be gouged once they prove they deserve it. Heck, we Jays fans wouldn’t want to end up like Leaf fans would we? How have their last few sold out seasons worked out for them?
MW: Gouged? You can come to a Blue Jays game for $9. It’s cheaper than going to a movie! What’s the cheapest Leafs ticket? $40?
- salHow come you wouldn’t fire J.P. if you were in charge Mike. I’m not going to say anything dumb like J.P. is the worst G.M. in baseball history because the truth is he’s probally an avg. GM but can’t we do better then that? I mean the guy has had seven years! he signed Overbay Wells and Rios to long term deals that don’t look very good now and could look worse or better in a couple years. He couldn’t find a left fielder for 08 better then Shannon Stewart. He released Frank Thomas and replaced him with Inglett/Scutaro/Barahas/Little Eck and when the team needed offence he added Wilkerson and Mench which didn’t do a thing.
Can everyone please stop comparing J.P’s draft reford to Gilliks 25 years ago. To compare someone drafting with the information we now have to someone drafting in the 80′s is just stupid. Compare J.P. to one of his peers perhaps even Gillick now so atleast theres an even playing field.
MW: I don’t think Rios’ or Overbay’s deals look bad at all, and I don’t think J.P. was the driving force behind the Wells deal. He couldn’t find a left fielder within his budget for the first 2 1/2 months of the season better than Stewart/Stairs, but if the hitters had hit that wouldn’t have mattered much. Why are people so down on the Wilkerson/Mench signings? Didn’t cost them anything, could have worked out (but obviously didn’t), but they were better than what they had in the minors.
- Dan MHey Mike – can I ask a couple quick questions?
1 – How could you hear people from the outfield seats when you’re way up behind home plate? Was it *that* dead?
2 – Crowd noise aside, when Rolen came up with the winning run 90 feet away, wouldn’t any other crowd at any other stadium in baseball be standing and cheering rather than sitting on their hands?
Also, so you know, MLB.com cut off the FAN feed right before JaysTalk started, and the fan590.com feed didn’t come back until right after JaysTalk ended (literally), so those of us who depend on the internet to hear the postgame were left out in the cold again. I know you hear this all the time and have given the same explanation a zillion times but I figured you might as well know it’s still not fixed.
MW: 1 – We have good crowd mikes, and the guy picked a good time, but it is generally pretty dead in here; 2 – yes, they would.
- TylerMike,
Great game last night. It was like you said another one of the “here we go again” type games but I am glad the Jays were able to get something going late. I was kind of surprised that they walked Stairs to get to Rolen (turned out they made the right choice had Bynum not let it by). I realize it was probably a lefty-righty matchup they were trying to avoid but I would think that Stairs would normally be considered the “easier” out when it comes down to him and Rolen.
Anyways i am glad to hear you constantly sticking up for JP. The guy has made a couple of questionable moves but for the most part has done a great job bringing guys in that should be doing better than they have been. All he can do is put the pieces in there and its up to the players at the end of the day to perform. Its not his fault Eckstein and Rolen have not been as good offensively as hoped.
MW: Eckstein has been just as good offensively as hoped. It’s Rios, Wells, Overbay, Stairs, Hill and Rolen who haven’t been. As for the choice to walk Stairs, Rolen is in a pretty big slump right now – the E6 that drove in the winning run made him 1-for-his-last-16.
- Brandon FHi Mike,
I am officially signing off until September. I leave for the cottage today and will not be returning until Labour Day (teacher). I am making a vow to watch no tv until I come back. At that point I sincerely hope to pick up the paper and see that the Jays have made some sort of miracle Colorodian comeback. Unfortunately I highly doubt this will happen.
Are you ready to concede? It has been obvious for awhile now. Too many winnable games lost early in the year, same old pattern, same old Ricciardi team. Perhaps this offense just is what it is. Why does J.P. mess around with the roster so much? What if we had just gone with Lind and Johnson from the beginning of the season? I know the Stewart move was the right one at the time, but it wasn’t. Does this make sense?
Mike you would make a good teacher. You take a post that has lots of great points and pick out one thing that perhaps doesn’t make sense and focus on that. To quote Simon and Garfunkel: “All I suggest, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”
I thought this team was much improved also, but I’m willing to admit that I was wrong. Things need to change at the top. Cito was a mistake, now the new GM will undoubtedly feel handcuffed to keep him on, when there are probably better alternatives out there. Things are a mess and I’m looking forward to getting away from it all (sports and news in general).
Have a good summer, and once again I do appreciate your statistical knowledge and passion for the game. Your feedback is always appreciated even if I do find your retorts comical and a tad condescending in their manner.
Thanks as always
MW: I can’t respond to everything in every post, especially all the novellas, and it’s my blog, so I’ll continue to pick and choose to which points I’ll respond. As for the Stewart/Johnson thing – how can you do more than make what’s the right decision at the time?
- Rob H.With the Cubs and Brewers making pitching moves on consecutive days, do you see the Cards making a play for Burnett now instead of waiting until the 31st? One would think that other NL teams would be more willing to make a move now as well.
MW: I don’t know that the Cards will make a move for pitching with Mulder back now and Wainwright and Carpenter to follow.
- Aaron KerHi Mike,
I feel the Jays could stand to trade AJ, Zaun or Barajas, Eckstein, Scutaro, Frasor and potentially Overbay without having their play drop off too much (the trade of AJ could hurt though, at least in the short term). This team could get a bit younger I think.
How do the Jays rank in terms of average age of all the major league teams? More and more it seems to me that it is switching to a younger league, or is that my imagination? Am I just getting older?
Thanks!
MW: The Jays are currently the 7th-oldest team in MLB.
- RorySo a while ago, I wondered about Jays attendance and how it could be increased. Yes, winning will help, but I think a little more marketing savvy will go a long way, too. They have to make the game itself only part of the total experience (the main part, certainly, but part of the whole). An indicative example: August 5th is ‘Stitch N’ Pitch’ night. As described on the Jays’ site:
“Stitch n’ Pitch brings together two North American traditions — Baseball and the NeedleArts. Come to a ball game and knit, crochet, embroider, cross-stitch and needlepoint. Sit among friends, family and colleagues and cheer on your Toronto Blue Jays as they take on the Oakland Athletics.
Tickets are discounted to $20 per person and include a free Blue Jays tote bag.
RSVP TODAY, and invite your friends! You don’t have to be a baseball fan. As long as you enjoy knitting, you will have an amazing night!”
1. Seriously, the “NeedleArts”? They’re joking, right? If someone wants to sit at home and make a scarf, that’s great. The NeedleArts requires skill and stuff, for sure. But why in the hell would NedeleArtists want to take their NeedleArt tools to the dome? And does the team expect to attract so many NeedleArt enthusiasts that it will push attendance well beyond what they would have gotten if there was no special event at all that night?
2. “You don’t have to be a baseball fan. As long as you enjoy knitting, you will have an amazing night!” So the draw is apparetntly the opportunity to knit from someplace other than your basement recliner. It’s not the Blue Jays at all. Great. Good messaging. And way to discount the tickets again.
3. Why can’t they put together a promotion or special event that’s so awesome, people would pay full ticket price to be there? Maybe an after-game fireworks show. Or a concert. Or a theme night that’s dome-wide, not just tucked away in one lousy section. Or give away stuff that people would actually want. The Cubs, for instance give away beer mugs, golf club covers, car flags, team caps, autographed baseballs and jerseys, even clothes for girls’ dolls (they can dress their dolls as cubs fans). That’s pushing the brand. What good is a tote bag? And one that’s given only to those who will be knitting that night? (as an aside, the Jays have 22 shceduled giveaway dates. The Brewers, by way of contrast, have 55)
4. And why not go after a market segment that could turn into regular customers. NeedleArtists, who the Jays acknowledged probably aren’t baseball fans, will not be making many return visits, nor will they be keeping the concession stands busy. You might move a few units of coffee, though.
There are lots of places where we can spend our disposable income. My pint is, I’d like to see the Jays organization hustle a little more to get it.
- Kipps ThompsonMike you actually think the A’s got enough for Harden and Guadan really?
MW: Didn’t I already answer that?
- Dan MIt was nice to see a come back win/walk off for a change. As much as everybody seems to freak out by the fact this team doesn’t win, I don’t. I will still see my 10-15 ballgames this year. The difference between 10 and 15 for me is how entertaining the team is, and if they can keep my kids interested. I’ll take a team that plays a lot of 7-6 games (with a .500 record) over one that wins a lot of 2-1 games (with a .530 record). My kids told me that AJ’s 1-0 win over the Braves was the worst day of their lives because they were startled from their slumber when the Jays scored the only run!
- Rob KucherI seem to remember quite a jump in play in fact, after the purge of older players in, what was it, 1998? (Okay, I know I am going back ten years, but it gives me something to think about).
MW: In 1998, Gord Ash traded Ed Sprague, Mike Stanley, Tony Phillips and Juan Guzman and got (basically) nothing back. The best player returned was Pete Munro. They went 34-18 from that point on.
- RoryHi Mike,
With CC Sebathia and Rich Harden off the market, do you think this increases AJ Burnett’s value at the trade dealine?
MW: Yes. Not to the point where he’s worth more than Sabathia or Harden, though.
- IanMike, do you ever sleep? You were on the Fan’s morning show and write a 1am blog!
MW: I wasn’t on the morning show. I do work a lot, though.
- Rob KucherWas that what I thought I saw last night??? A comeback win, wow it’s been awhile!
JP needs to get active quickly in trading our players who are tradeable as other teams have already jumped in and taken some prospects that we would have liked. If JP is not going to be back next year, he needs to be gone. We need our future GM making these deals and working the deadline.
Hopefully Mcgowan’s shoulder isn’t serious or we may have Purcey and Parrish in our rotation shortly.
- MattyHey Mike,
I know the topic will come up tonight with JP but I’ll be at work and won’t get a chance to listen to JaysTalk until the morn (thank god for technology) but how do you feel about Travis Snyder possibly being a September callup?
I’m not saying there’s a right answer or a wrong answer…but he’s only 20 and was in A ball last year. He’s got under 300 AB’s in AA. I know it’s the sexy move to bring up your top prospect, as per the requests from Jays Talk callers in as early as April, this seems more like a political move than a baseball move. JP’s efforts to try and keep Lind down for a full year in AAA while we need him but call up Travis Snyder in Sept when we probably won’t is confusing to me.
Fair or Foul?
MW: Not unfair, but I don’t mind a September call-up. It doesn’t start the clock, and takes away some of the wide-eyed-ness of being in the big leagues later on. I’m surprised they’d consider calling up Snider, when they’re still years away from having to put him on the 40-man, but I guess they think he’s awfully close to being able to contribute here.
- Ryan S.Hi Mike,
Just home from work so tou may have answered this already. Is it possible shoulder soreness is a reason McGowan has not been as effective in recent starts as we would expect? He has looked worringly inconsistent at times this year. We all know how pitchers work through pain, Ryan last year, Accardo was working with diminished effectiveness probably due to pain.
Would the uncertainty currently surrounding McGowan and Marcum change in any way how the Jays feel about trading Burnett? Would you now think it wise to hang on to him now and take the draft picks next year? Or is it a case of the Brewers and Cubs have made there moves already, thinning out the options available, could this force up the asking price on Burnett?
Thanks
MW: Yes to the McGowan question, no to the first Burnett question, yes to the last.
- ukJayMike,
What has happened with Parish?
And I have been enjoying Alan. What are the odds that he is here for the long run?
MW: Parrish was supposed to start Sunday, but he’s been bumped up to Thursday. As for Alan, I think the odds are pretty good.
- JWWe need to trade AJ Burnett ASAP. With Marcum and McGowan both injuried, Burnett will soon follow. The Jays need to trade him sooner then later because when AJ goes down we will be stuck with him for the rest of the season and have to settle for the draft picks.
I heard some rumors that Paul Godfrey was thinking about stepping down. Is this true or simply just a rumor.
Thanks Mike
MW: So pitching injuries are contagious? Interesting. I haven’t heard anything about Godfrey wanting to step down.
- PaulMy favourite sexist, Richard Griffen, makes two good points in his mailbag today. First he reminds us that Halladay took a bit of a cut in his pay this season because Ricciardi told him for sure this season we’d make the playoffs. Which isn’t going to bode well for our chances of re-signing him unless he really really believes the GM* next time he’s told this.
Secondly he reminds us of the problems of being a .500 team. There’s no huge impetus to crash the whole thing and start afresh, because there’s a belief that we’re only one or two pieces short. He’s right about that. and this is a team that should be completely crashed this off-season.
Lyle Overbay has two more years left on a fairly substantial contract. I don’t see him leaving any time shortly unless we pay quite a bit of his salary. S/s we’ve discussed to death. 2nd base is, unfortunately, in the Twilight Zone right now. Wells and Rios have big contracts and won’t go for market value at the moment. Well, maybe Wells will…
And for all this transcendent wonderfulness we can thank JP Ricciardi.
(One more thing: if Rios is having trouble hitting, and that triple last night aside he is, why doesn’t he choke up on the bat a little? He might whiff a bit less…)
*That GM won’t be JP.
MW: Rios isn’t having trouble hitting, he’s having trouble hitting for power. Halladay didn’t take a cut in pay, his contract wasn’t renegotiated.
- reyesSplendid! I just scored premium dugouts for Saturday afternoon’s game against the dreaded Yankees, Mike. First game this season, Mike. Wells scores, Rios scores, Vito scores! Don’t know the pitching matchup, but does anybody really know what time it is? It’s going to be great and I can’t wait! Don’t worry Mike. I promise to behave myself and not embarrass you nor I. I actually turned down the tickets from my Toronto Tycoon big brother on the basis of utter disinterest but when he said they’re for the Yankees I couldn’t pass up a chance to see them in town. And then the Jays put the cherry ontop of the pistaccio ice-cream with that walk off comeback winner last night. If Giambi’s bomb was the turning point of this downward spiral, maybe last night’s heroics turn this tide around.
- Vito From HamiltonMichael of the Ballyard:
Let’s go back to the idea that Denbo really couldn’t have affected the hitters that much & all the throwing under the bus that was done to him was just a human reaction to deflecting the blame for failure.
Have you ever seen a coach thrown under so many buses in such a technical manner (Stairs’ detailed description of what exactly about Denbo’s approach wasn’t working, for instance) after being fired? If you have, I’m sure they were doing something wrong.
You didn’t see any of the players saying ‘Gibbons mismanaged a bunch of games and has cost us ground in the standings’ or ‘Peavy ran us into so many outs that it’s hurt our overall performance’ or ‘Whitt was a paranoid bully of the media who always had us looking over our shoulder to make sure we’re supposed to be taking the field, despite whatever the lineup card says.’
It was Denbo!
MW: Except that what was wrong with the team? Lack of hitting! Who was “in charge” of the hitting? Gary Denbo! Who would the players have to blame for their failures, if not for Denbo? Themselves!
- JCLMy verb tense agreement was all screwed up. :(
MW: Happens.
- JCLMike,
How much money of A-Rod’s contract do you think will be owned by his ex-wife, C-Rod?
Is it just me or does A-rod probably have the worst PR people in the history of pro sports who work for him?
Also, who would you rather take on your team in their prime?
Derek Jeter or Craig Biggio?
MW: I’d rather have Jeter in his prime, I think. But I’d put him at second base.
- MarkTalking about the young guys getting called up in Sept, guess they are resigning themselves to a non playoff season, well at least they are being realistic, which at this point is what I want to see. I don’t want them to waste the chance to get something and make the team younger/quicker or better unless they are sure that the team will make and be competative come playoff time. I’ve seen many a team in many sports, scramble to make the playoffs go out in the first round loose what they could have traded and be worse off than the year before. That being said if nothing happens and no one moves, what do you think that would mean if it would mean anything?
MW: It would mean that they couldn’t do better in trade than the draft pick compensation they’ll get when certain players walk after the season.
- NickHiMike
- marioMaybe a little to late but nonetheless a very enjoyable win for the Jays.Speaking of haters.Heard that fellow trying to get you to say you would get rid of Burnett.Really tou would think those word games were left back in elementary school.I don’t understand how people could hold it against you for staying true to what you believe in.If that makes you a homer well then I geuss there should be a lot more homers in this world.I am enjoying Rios running more and more it seems he is learning a liitle every time he runs.Hopefully he doesn’t get down when he gets caught.Mike ,I was looking at the pitchers in the minor leagues and I noticed a marked improvement of pitchers going from “AA” TO “AAA”.Stidfole,Richmond and Purcey all showed marked improvement numbers wise.Is there a reason for this maybe pitch count or does the reality of the big leagues being that much closer give the players a boost.I would love you thoughts on this.If I can’t get through tonight pleasw ask J.P. Tim Collins in Lansing his numbers are unbelievable but at 5’7″ and 150lbsI would like to know how hw projects.
mario
Go Jays
In light of JP talking about Snider and Arencibia in sept and likely Purcey now that mcgowen is hurt… could you discuss some of these minor league names and thier status.
Ricky Romaro –> are his troubles attributed to any thing in particular? arm problems or just still young? Is he a labeled a bust yet?
Mike MacDonald –> I don’t know anything about him other than his numbers look very good, is there any way we see him in Sept as a middle reliever?
Jason Arnold —> I cant find anything about him recently? Is he done as a promising prospect? or hurt?
And finally is there any more “Laporta” type players available for someone like Burnett and X in a deal? Or are we looking at draft picks or sleeper type prospects only for Burnett?
MW: Romero is progressing, but much more slowly than anyone expected. Arnold is retired. Can there not be guys between LaPorta and sleeper types?
- MikeMike, hate is a strong word. I definitley don’t hate you but I can understand your feelings. It hurts my feelings knowing that you think I hate you. Being singled out hurts as well, I guess I deserve it. I’m going to try my best to be more thoughtfull. It’s defenitely not good when someone feels hated even if we don’t know each other. I tell you, its all about baseball.
MW: I hate to say it, Bruno, but it’s not all about baseball. Go look back at your comments, you’ve made it personal.
- brunoJust a couple of quickies.
Has J.D. Drew ever won a Gold Glove?
What do you make of the players the A’s recieved in the Harden trade, considering they might have been coming to Toronto had the Cubs come after A.J.?
MW: I don’t think Drew has won a Gold Glove, but I’m not sure. Probably because I don’t care about Gold Gloves, since they don’t mean anything. I already answered the question about the Cubs’ haul.
- ukJayI am finally pleased to get in touch with you after trying and failing over the phone.
I recall a while back – during this season – you saying something that Shannon Stewart was a better hitter than Johnson. where is Stewart now? where is Johnson now?
It seems that your bias for the jays got the better of you and you were forced to agree with the decision to get stewart over Johnson. I am glad Lind is getting more time there because Stewart is simply older, slower, and has gained more weight than during his last sting with the jays.
Frank Thomas’ release has turned out to be the biggest mistake this year. his big bat is sorely missed, and there are players who have struggled more over the past 4 months than he did over the first few weeks in April.
MW: Stewart is on the disabled list, same place as Thomas. Johnson is in Chicago, being just as average as he was when he was here.
- EdgarNow that the pressure is off, of course our boys will play much better.
Nick Markakis, continues to be a Jay killer. Mike, is Markakis an untouchable?
MW: Pretty untouchable.
- ByronHey Mike
Nice to see a come from behind win, it’s been a long time coming. Anyways, I was wondering what you thought of baseball adopting a playoff format in which the teams are ranked 1-4 in each league. This would eliminate teams like the D-Backs or Dodgers making the playoffs with a .500 record and one of the Cubs/Brewers/Cards being left out with a record well over .500. Ideally, I’d love to see the whole league ranked 1-8, but I realize that would never, ever happen. I’m still just bitter over the 06 Cardinals winning the World Series with 3 less regular season wins than the playoff-less Jays.
MW: I’d love to see the 1-4 thing, but you have to balance the schedule.
- JoshHey Mike,
I’ve read that the Marlins are in need of veteran catcher; might they be interested in Zaun, since Cito isn’t. Have you heard anything?
MW: Why would you say Cito isn’t interested in Zaun? He’s had 8 starts behind the plate since Cito took over, Barajas has had 9. I haven’t heard anything about a deal with the Marlins, but I’m sure the Jays would listen.
- MichaelHey Mike,
What’s a walk-off win?
MW: A win in which the other team has to walk off the field while you celebrate.
- Justin H.Mike,
Just wondering where you go to read up more on baseball and further your ever-growing knowledge on the sport. I’m thinking more online sites such as – Baseball Prospectus, USA Today, SI.com.
MW: Since I’ve started this blogging, I hardly have time to read at all.
- JoelIts official, Jermaine O’Neal in Toronto!! Anyways, I don’t understand why Eckstein isn’t playing more, Scutaro really isn’t tearing it up out there. Also, if they are trying to deal him, wouldn’t having him sit on the bench behind Marco Scutaro going to hurt his trade value. What team would want to trade for Marco Freakin Scutaro’s backup?? Over and out
MW: I think Eckstein would be marketed in trade as David Eckstein, not as Marco Scutaro’s back-up. He has enough of a track record that people know his capabilities.
- B.ViddyThis is maybe just my perception, but do you feel that as Jeter goes downhill defensively, the Yankees may try and switch A-Rod back to Short and move Jeter to third? Or is A-Rod now considered as a Third Baseman and maybe a future D.H.?
MW: If they were interested in doing that, wouldn’t they simply have installed Rodriguez at short when he got there? He was a much better shortstop than Jeter back then.
- ukJayErr, you think that if JP is allowed to trade AJ it isn’t necessarily a sign he’ll be there next year, but you don’t understand the logic of that?
MW: Correct. Why would you let someone in whom you have no confidence make such an important trade?
—-
But you still said that you think that if JP is allowed to move AJ it isn’t necessarily a sign he’ll be back next year.
So you think the Jays might let JP move him, but think they’re ridiculous for doing so?
MW: No – but that it’s a bad move to allow him to do that if they KNOW he won’t be back.
- JCLSorry, I’m baked.
MW: Never would have known.
- JCLHi Mike
- HoweyI keep seeing comments about how good the Rays are. Wasn’t this the same team that no good team should be swept by? Must be a long season, eh.
Mike,
What are your sentiments on booing the players?
I am making it up to my first games of the season from Nova Scotia and will likely get restless if there is still a goose egg or a one up on the scoreboard in the 6th.
Haven’t decided how close to the bench / plate my ticket will be yet. I want to go for the love and fun of the game, but if it all goes sour, as it frequently has this season, the I may want to exercise my right as a fan to lay into a few the wings without flight.
Opinion on booing? Be assured that A-Rod will get booed. He’s an automatic as is A.J. Per-but-a-vowel.
MW: Boo home players for lack of effort, not for lack of results. Visitors? Go nuts.
- ToddHi Mike,
I am not sure if someone has asked this already or not. I apologize if this is a repeat.
I read the following on MLBtraderumours.com:
“Rosenthal reminds us that A.J. Burnett can veto trades to 15 teams and would probably require compensation to waive that right or his opt-out rights.”
Is this true and do you have any idea which 15 teams he cannot be traded to?
Kevin
MW: No idea, but I’ll try to find out.
- KevinI like how you still call it the Dome.. Always will be
MW: It’s still a dome, no?
- peteMike I often wonder why you get so many people disagreeing with you and tryingto prove you wrong. I dont get it. I also dont get why you appear to be more of a “homer” than any other personality following a sports team in this city. Any explanations?
MW: Hmmmmm, I would think those two things feed off each other, no? And I’m not a homer, I’m a realist.
- KDHey Mike, I never realized that Norman Wilner was your brother until I heard him on the Fan the other day. I loved his writing when he was writing for Starweek and I love him now in Now Magazine. My two favoutite things in life are baseball and movies; would have been nice to have been the third Wilner brother. :)
MW: But if you had been the third, baseball and movies would already have been taken.
- Chris JonesMike, now that your employers management and coaches have all but said that the season is done. Are you ready to admit, or are you still adament about it being a loooooooong season?
MW: My employers?
- Jason DeneaulMike, question about stealing first, are you allowed to go at anytime you want? For example last night Wells strikes out, but Rios steal second, and due to a bad throw goes all the way to third, can Wells seeing that all attention is on Rios not run to first, or was it already to late?
MW: You can’t steal first.
- AndrewSo now that Gaston and JP have waived the white flag, are you prepared to do it also? Or are you going down with the ship?
MW: They seem to have, haven’t they? No, I won’t. It’s stupid to say that a season is over with more than 70 games left in it.
- GaryNo more hate huh? How about this.
Ahem… You dress funny!
That’s all I got, sad huh?
Alright to the game, I wasn’t able to catch most of it after being stuck in a hospital for a bit but it is nice to see a comeback win for once. I really hope if something comes up that JP can pull the trigger on something that may help in future years. It feels as if this team is so close but for some reason or another can seem to put it together maybe a few tweaks here and there is what is needed.
To everyone that suggests trading this person for that person and blowing up the team. Remember this isn’t a (insert gaming console here) game. You can’t just make trade offers until you get the computer to accept. The real world does not work that way.
MW: Indeed.
- Johnny GWhat do you think the Blue Jays could get if they traded Roy Halladay? He’s such a great player, I enjoy watching him everytime he pitches because he is one of the hardest workers in the game. I know the Jays won’t trade him, and I hope they don’t. Though if a team blows the Blue Jays away with an amazing offer, you would have to consider it.
Also, if Halladay was traded to the Dodgers, what do you think the Jays could get back?
Thanks
MW: It’s pointless to speculate. They’d have to give up at least three top-flight pre-arbitration players. Chad Billingsley, Russ Martin and James Loney or Matt Kemp? That’d make me think.
- FrankyHi Mike , I wanted to get it out there and to let people know , that Wayne McMahon(the ICE COLD BEEEER) guy was fired last night at the rogers centre by Aramak, He allegedley sold beer to a 22(legal) year old but did not card him. I think everyone needs to know. This is going to be a huge loss to the fans .Not sure if you can help get the word out, but thought people may want to know the unfairness of this. Melanie
- Melanie BelzMike, I have a further question concerning your proposed use of “robot” umpires.
How would you cope with the infamous “checked swing” calls?
Watching the two AL games this afternoon, there were a number of times when the pitch was clearly out of the zone, but because of checked swings the call was a strike.
Some of the calls were made by the plate ump, and others by the third or first base ump.
This happens regularly, several times a game, and it seems to me it would be virtually impossible to set up an electronic system which would handle these variables.
In your thinking, what would be the answer for this problem?
MW: Well, you still need real umps for judgment calls.
- NormHey Mike,
Now 8-8 – the Cito sample size is increasing in a positive direction! It will be harder and harder for him though as we trade players and go with the youth movement for the remainder of the season. Let’s keep our “games behind wildcard” to less than 10 by the all-star break. Single digits always seem somewhat possible!
What a great comeback, I agreed with the caller that it brough out some emotion in us fans, to see a late game comeback, and not just 1 or 2 runs, but 4! I was at the James Taylor concert but picked up the score updates on my phone.
What could we get for Stairs? Who would be interested?
Matt
MW: Not much, maybe the Dodgers.
- MatthewDo you think that Dustin McGowan being put on the DL will affect whether or not the Jays deal Burnett? Considering JP and Gaston both more or less threw in the towel yesterday, it’d be silly to hold onto him just to try and salvage a few wins this season, especially with JP saying he wants to get an extended look at Purcey. So, my guess would be no, but what do you think?
Also, what teams might have interest in a guy like Matt Stairs, and what kind of return could the Jays get for him?
Finally, IF the Jays do intend on getting a new GM for next year, how much control would JP have over the upcoming trades the Jays will likely be making? It seems that if (IF!) that were the case, there should be somebody else pulling the strings behind the scenes – hypothetically, who might that be? I know there are a lot of ifs in there, but I’m just curious as to the next-in-command would be if the higher-ups are planning changes for next year.
MW: If they’re planning changes, the new guy likely isn’t here, so no one would be pulling the strings. It’s not like Paul Godfrey or Tony Viner is going to negotiate an A.J. Burnett trade. I don’t think a Burnett trade is affected at all by McGowan’s injury, and see above for the Stairs question.
- TyHey Mike,
You have to think some of the comments regarding JP’s poor draft record may be a bit exaggerated.
It appears, in my ‘blue jay-coloured eyes’ that we have some prospects coming along quite nicely.
Brett Cecil, Travis Snider, Scott Campbell, David Purcey, J.P. Arencibia, Brian Jeroloman and the two kids from the ’07 draft in Lansing, Jackson and Ahrens seem to be on the right track. Combine them with some of the big-league talent and there is some sort of hope for the future (’09 and beyond).
My two-cents worth.
MW: Don’t forget the guys who are already here.
- CameronI’m not opposed to giving Gaston another year in the dugout but I do think you have to let the GM that’s coming in decide that. I think that JP has done a good job but I’m starting to think that the club will go in a different direction. One move that I would make is to lock up Brad Arnsberg long term! I read somewhere that his contract is up after this season.
MW: All the coaches’ contracts are up.
- BartI noticed in one of the daily Toronto newspapers that Cito would like to come back to coach next year. I wonder who will make that decision; Paul Godfrey or J.P?
Also, could you shed some light on why Cleveland is having a poor season to date? Were they not picked to be playoff contenders (do they suffer from some of same problems as the Jays?)
MW: Cito is the manager of the team, not the coach. Cleveland’s troubles stem mostly from the fact that they’re not hitting – guys like Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez got off to poor starts and are now injured, young players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Franklin Gutierrez didn’t continue their development as expected, their 1A starter Fausto Carmona got hurt, as did their closer, Joe Borowski, who was even worse than he was last year and has since been released. It’s that – or maybe those are just excuses and Eric Wedge and Mark Shapiro have got to go.
- IanHi Mike,
Love the show. Keep up the good work. A few simple questions for you.
1. Does a sac fly count towards or against a players avg. My guess it is neutral. Shouldn’t it depend on the situation though? A sac fly in the bottom of the 9th to bring in the game winning run should favour a players average (the equivalent of a hit). A sac fly with bases loaded in the top of the ninth that brings in a runner from third (but doesn’t advance anyone else) when a team is down by 4 runs should count against that players average (basically counting as a simple out). Thoughts?
2. I just noticed the Angels have by far the best away record in the AL (28-16). Is that just due to a lopsided interleague schedule? The only other team in the AL with a winning away recored is the Yankees in a distant second (22-20).
Best Wishes.
MW: 1 – A sac fly doesn’t count as an at-bat. I’m not going to comment on your theory because there’s nothing nice I Can say about it. 2 – The Angels are a confounding team in the overall.
- CarsonJust a quick one Mike:
When Downs came in to yesterday’s game, his first act was to intentionally walk Roberts with runners at 2nd & 3rd and 1 out.
Is the intentional walk not typically done by the pitcher who is about to be replaced (Frasor in this case)? I can’t imagine that the Jays hoped that Baltimore would pinch-hit for Roberts given the left-hander… Personally I think the plan was to throw him 3 intentional balls then start moving the roof and while Roberts was watching, sneak in 3 quick strikes – but the roof operator missed a sign.
No comments posted yet so I apologize if this is a repeat comment!
MW: It’s a repeat, no worries. I don’t know which way is more typical, but I’d have had Frasor do it.
- James (from the 'Shwa)The way Cito is talking off-lately, it seems he’ll come back next year. He seems very confident about his future here in Toronto. Have you heard any rumours of that sort?
It seems Marty Pevey was really a bad 3rd base coach, ever since Leyva? has joined the club, he has done a pretty good job. I always liked Pevey, though. He always seemed very alert, but not much beyond that. Do you think he’ll ever get a job in MLB?
MW: Talking off? I don’t think Cito is confident about his future, he says he wants to be back, that’s all. I don’t know if Pevey will get another job. He is a great guy, very good outfield coach, very smart man.
- JoojooMichael, the JaysTalk podcast doesn’t seem to be working. It’s endlessly buffering.
MW: You’re the first to complain, I wonder what’s up.
- MikieMW: “The Angels run differential has a lot to do with the Blue Jays. It shows you that there’s almost no difference between that 52-win team and this 41-win team, so things aren’t nearly as hopeless as you’d paint them to be. There is no chance that the Jays pull out all the stops to win 85 games this season.”
Well the difference is about 11 wins…..thats a HUGE difference!
MW: Uh-huh. Way to miss the point.
- KDMike, you still havn’t answered my question why you think Derek Jeter is overrated as a leader?
MW: Because if he had been drafted by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, he’d be just another very good hitting shortstop.
- andrewIn the C.C Sabathia deal Zach Johnson was traded. Is this the same Zach Johnson that was the centrepiece of the Lyle Overbay deal? If it is what is the scouting report on him.
Also, do you think that David Purcey can be a legitamite starter on the team next year? Or will it be Brandon League?
MW: Zach Jackson was indeed in the Sabathia trade – he’d been getting hammered at AAA for Milwaukee. I don’t think League will start here next year, I think Purcey may get a shot, depending on how he does in the second half up here.
- AbdullahMike, when are Vernon Wells and Alex Rios gonna stop DRIVING ME INSANE! I just really cannot stand to see another Wells AB. That first inning was so typical of him.
- Vito From HamiltonChazz: Mind-bottling, isn’t it?
- JoeJimmy: Did you just say mind-bottling?
Chazz: Yeah, mind-bottling. You know, when things are so crazy it gets your thoughts all trapped, like in a bottle?
Hi Mike,
Talking about the crowd and the attendance reminded me to ask you a few things about that. I’ve been going to games since 1977 when I was 12 and even though I’ve been in OZ since ’93, I go to 3-4 games every time I come back for a visit.
In the early years at the Ex we didn’t have great attendance, but the fans who were there were hardcore (at least after 78)and the best seats in the house were the $1 Dominion seats in the bleachers where you could stomp the chairs with your feet.
During the Skydome years from 89-93, I could hardly get a ticket and when I did I was usually stuck behind some idiot chatting on his new technology cellular phone until the 6th inning telling everyone he was at the game. Never have I heard a sold out stadium make less noise about the actual game.
Now when I go back, it’s a bit depressing to see all the empty seats in the Skydome (sorry, Rogers Centre), but I have a LOT more fun because the atmosphere and the fans are buzzing and the fans seem to be a lot more into the game than they’ve ever been (although I haven’t been this year and imagine the buzz has been replaced with a sort of stunned torpor).
So my question is this: do you think the fans going to the games are savvier/more dedicated than ever and do you think the fair weather/bandwagon fans will come back, even if we start winning year after year?
The reason I say that is because my generation of Toronto friends, guys who used to be totally into the Jays, could now care less and they don’t even consider bringing their kids to the games. This is a great shame I think especially when the alternative is the Leafs?????
Are attendance numbers something to be worried about?
MW: No. Attendance has been climbing for the last five years – just imagine what will happen if they actually win.
- Oz Rob1. David Eckstein – DH
Time for paper bags over heads.
- GregJPHi Mike
If JP did trade AJ Burnett what would he look to get for him.
MW: You’re going to have to read the blog a bit.
- JasonI am in shock really..As I write this, the Jays actually scored 7 runs in one inning..Mcgowan is lost for 15 days..Who’s gonna take the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation?..Brian Wolfe was recalled..Is there a chance he will get a start?
MW: Nope. Tallet will start Sunday, and if it’s a long-term thing, it’ll likely be Purcey.
- gumpBurnette’s garbage Mike. I give up.
- Vito From HamiltonSo after 110 pitches Cito thinks it is reasonable to keep AJ in there to face Adam Jones. Unreal. Unreal. 6th inning and 110 pitches. How can you not see that coming???? I am stunned.
AJ, by the way, I would trade for a bucket of balls.
MW: That’s why you’re not a big-league GM.
- kurt kJesus, AJ, that was a seven-run lead! You want out and we want rid of you. Work with us here!
- reyesjust to be clear, AJ’s 6th:
- kurt k-single.
-single.
-pop up, 1 out.
-walk.
-single.
-single.
Cito “Let’s keep him in”
-3 run bomb.
Can we pleeeeeeeease just trade this stiff and his 5.23 ERA while he still has any trade value at all???
MW: You guys are hilarious.
- Tomriiight,,, gimme a date so i can look it up or copy and paste lol
MW: Huh?
- Nicky ZHi Mike
I don’t understand why J.P. is writing the season off because they are only ten games out, with more than 2 months to play, and all those games against the teams ahead of them. And if the rockies can make it last, the jays can this year.
Thanks
MW: The Rockies needed a miracle, and got it. J.P. didn’t write the season off, he said that the chances of them making the playoffs are probably not good, and he’s right.
- Hopeful HomerMike,
Why does JP keep saying that everyone thought this team was going to be so much better than it has been?
Most people picked them to finish 3rd or 4th in the division and to win between 78-86 games.
MW: He said nobody picked them to be a last-place team, and he’s right.
- GregJPHi Mike:
The complaints about Riccardi are so tiresome.
When people make arguments against Riccardi, they should be forced to use actual statistics to back up their claims — not “hindsight” statistics either. If you use the statistics at the time these contracts are signed, it looks like an excellent team on paper.
Someone tell me how Riccardi was supposed to know the power would drop off dramatically for guys like Rios, Wells and Rolen?
I guess Riccardi should have seen the injuries in 2007 or poor RISP, inability to come back after the 7th inning, or to win one-run games in 2008?
Frustrating? Oh yes. Are this things a General Manager has control over? I think not.
Waterloo, Ontario
PS – Is there a way to ban (or limit) usage of the phrase, “… and the Blue Jays take flight …”?
- Scott BrownFair enough. I just think that Eckstein should be getting into that lineup somehow. I’m not a big Eckstein fan, and wasn’t big on him hitting in the leadoff spot earlier, but he has been hitting well and at this point with how things are going I think he probably is our best guy to have leading off, that or Joe Inglett. Speaking of which, do you see if/when Hill gets back they put Joe Inglett at SS. I wouldn’t mind seeing that. Just throwing it out there.
MW: What’s fair enough? And no, I don’t think we’ll see Inglett at short, it’s his worst position. It’s likelier that Hill plays short and Inglett second than the other way around.
- B.ViddyIs anyone else tired of hearing Pat Tabler and Rod Black talk about the possible AJ trade and how it’s tough to trade a guy with “great stuff” for unprovent talent??
Boil it down. A .500 pitcher. I don’t care how great his stuff is. It reminds me of that line from Bull Durham that describes Nuke Laloose. “The guy has a million dollar arm and a 5 cent head”.
If AJ’s stuff is so good, Then why can’t he win? Get rid of this guy already. And Tabler and Black should call it like it is…. an easy trade… Fregosi must be sitting in the crowd puking all over himself. Trade him for a bag of balls and a radar gun.
Dale
MW: Burnett won tonight.
- Dale MatchettI’d really like to see J.P. not make any major changes before the trade deadline. That includes not moving Burnett. I’m a firm believer in the notion that whatever hole a team digs itself into in one half of the season, it can dig itself out of in the other half of the season. I never understand why people assume that a team can’t possibly come back from X games behind in Y games even though Y games was clearly enough to fall X games behind in the first place. If the team is just a bad team, that’s one thing. But any baseball fan with a genuinely open mind would look at this team and realize that the season is far from over.
MW: I don’t know why people assume that a deficit can’t possibly be overcome, but it’s not as simple as you put it. If the hole has been dug, then in order to get out of it, a team has to overachieve to the same extent that it previously underachieved. And other teams have to fall back as well.
- ShmuelMike, I’m not sure I agree with you when you include Stairs in the list of players underperforming. Did you honestly expect him to repeat last season? At age 40? I like Stairs, but last year was most likely a minor fluke. He’s doing pretty much what should be expected of him.
MW: Except for the power numbers, you have a good point. Stairs is hitting .276/.366/.439 against righties, I’m not sure more could have been reasonably expected, but I thought he’d hit at least 20 homers with regular work.
- JohnGo Matt Go
You gotta love the fan’s passion for the only Canadian playing for the Jays. Matt Stairs has got that hockey mentality when he is batting.
Seriously though Mike, how come we do not have a star Canadian player on our team.
You would think the Jays would at least have one of them playing for us.
MW: The Jays don’t have a monopoly on Canadian players, and I would hate to see them start drafting guys just because they’re Canadian.
- francisIf eckstein could only steal first base hey!!! … and those 3 sac flys overbay has could boost his avg to .272 thats .010 higher!, too bad we cant factor in his 15 ground into double plays stat into his avg somewhere too…. The jays would be offensive juggernauts and overbay would be MVP. :)
- MikeMike,
Isn’t it going to be fun responding to all these people who are so gung-ho about trading Burnett after he pitches well for whatever team he goes to?
Jays fans seem to love things one minute (Burnett signing, Wells extension, Rios extension, etc. etc.) Then the second these players slump(Rios-08), get injured(Wells-07), play up to their ability (Burnett) or some other prospect who was rumoured in trades with them is on fire, instantly the mood changes to FIRE JP HE DOESNT KNOW WHAT HES DOING? Is this JP they want fired the same JP that made the deals that put smiles on the faces of Jays fans everywhere?
I don’t get it.
MW: That’s what being a fan is all about.
- Andrew (Guelph)Now with Mcgowan on the DL, one can say the season is as good as over. I hope that the Jays are still willing to trade AJ, and not thinking of keeping him for the remainder because Mcgowan is on the DL. I see Bedard is on the DL which should increase AJ’s value. Would you trade some bullpen guys and who? It seems bullpen guys are at premium, the one area most contenders need improving.
MW: I’m sure the Jays are still willing to trade A.J. I’d deal any of the bullpen guys.
- jason” A million dollar arm and a 5 cent head” thats too funny..But its true..We love Burnett when he wins because he looks so good..When he looses he looks awful..This start was a mixture of both..Why not trade him this year and see if we have anyone else to take his place?..If we didn’t have so many injuries last year we may not have seen Shawn Marcum or Jesse Litch..These guys came from nowhere..Nobody thought Marcum was going to be this good..
- gumpOf course it isn’t “simple” to climb back from 10 or so games out, and I didn’t say that it is. But it really isn’t as difficult as everyone makes it out to be, either, assuming the team isn’t just a bad team. If you’re already assuming that they’ve underachieved so far, then you recognize that they’re capable of playing better. It shouldn’t be considered difficult for a team to play as well as it’s capable of playing. Once you recognize that, it’s really not that much of a jump to say they have a good shot of getting back in the race. Every team goes on hot and cold streaks throughout the course of a season, and that’s all it takes to change the complexion of the playoff race.
People like to pretend that winning and losing streaks suddenly don’t happen after the all-star break, when in fact they are just as likely to occur then as in April or May. And so every year “strange” and “unexpected” things happen down the stretch. And I’ll argue that it’s no more “unexpected” than what happened in April or May. Or, perhaps, that what happened in the first half was actually more anomolous than what happened in the second half. There’s nothing miraculous or supernatural about it. It’s reality: whatever happens in one half can, and often does, get reversed in the second half.
MW: But the thing is that once a team has dug itself a hole, it then has to play far better than it was reasonably expected to be playing in order to dig itself out. It can happen, sure, and has on many occasions, but not as often as the opposite.
- ShmuelAh, but when people reasonably expect a team to perform at a certain level they’re usually just predicting a final record. In other words, they make a guess about how the team will end up, not how they’re going to get there. Before a season starts people are usually sensible enough to recognize that during the course of the season many ups and downs, both short and long, will occur, and that these streaks will ultimately play a major role in determining the eventual outcome. Ad absurdam, if you only look at winning streaks, every team plays much better during those streaks than it is reasonably expected to play over the course of an entire season. You can’t use an expected aggregate winning percentage to conclude that the expected winning percentage over smaller sets of games througout the season will be the same as that in the aggregate. If anything, you can say that, given the underperformance to date, the expected winning percentage from now until the end is higher than what it has been already.
MW: Again, though, the problem is that when a team is expected to win, say, 90 games (.556), and goes 21-33 (.389) in two of the season’s first three months, it would then have to go 33-21 over two other months (.611) just to get back to 54-54. Which leaves the rest of the season to go 36-18 (.667) to get to 90 wins. It’s not that the expected winning percentage from here on out isn’t higher, it probably is, even with all these recent injuries, but by burying yourself early, you increase exponentially the amount of digging out you’ll have to do. When one expects a 90-win season, one doesn’t expect fully one-third of that season to be spent winning at a 100-loss pace.
- Shmuelso you have “reasonable certainty” Rolen won’t request a trade at season’s end!
I hope this is based on something more substantive than your earlier assertion the Jays could get Matt LaPorta for AJ. I’m still chuckling about that one.
You suggested Jays fans under-rate AJ and cited the fact they might be able to get LaPorta for him to support your argument.
Then when pinned down on it, you confessed you were speculating they could get LaPorta becuase Cleveland wanted LaPorta plus others for Sabbathia. This is called circular reasoning.
If Cleveland got LaPorta plus for CC, the Jays will be lucky to get the rights to Stubby Clapp for AJ. Like Dan Shulman said, just getting rid of AJ and avoiding the chance of him deciding to stay for 12 million would be a win at this point for the Jays.
MW: Yours is the kind of comment I don’t want to respond to, but if I don’t, then people may believe the things you’re saying I said. But you are one of the “hear what you want to hear” types, and sadly, you’re not alone.
- ProkopecI’m arguing that it’s foolish to expect or not to expect a team to play a certain way in only a partial sampling of games over a given time period during a season. There’s more than enough empirical evidence that demonstrates the fallacy in those assumptions. Exhibit A is the very team we’re talking about, which already went 20-10 (.667) in the other month of the first three months.
MW: We’ve gone back and forth on this for far too long. All I’m saying is that the deeper the hole you dig yourself into, the harder it is to get out.
- ShmuelI never disagreed with that statement.
MW: Huh?
- Shmuel“[T]he deeper the hole you dig yourself into, the harder it is to get out.”
I never disagreed with that statement. I said that it’s usually not as difficult to dig yourself out as people like to think it is.
MW: It is if the hole is really deep.
- ShmuelAs the hole gets bigger, digging out gets harder, but it’s never as hard as people think; my point is that people think it’s harder than it actually is. Even if the hole is really deep and it’s really hard (aside: this is not the case for the Blue Jays), people tend to blow it out of proportion.
MW: Well, of course. That’s why they’re called fans.
- Shmuel