2:25 AM Eastern
At least the Jays waited until Canada Day was over (in the East, at least) to blow this one.
This was a game that the Jays shouldn’t have lost - and as pointed out on The LateNight JaysTalk, ANOTHER game that the Jays shouldn’t have lost. Home or away, when you have a three-run lead on the worst team in baseball in the 7th inning, you win that game.
It’s tough to take any shots at the bullpen, since the relievers have been so good this year (almost as good as the starters), and I’m almost willing to forgive them their collective 4-17 record because that has more to do with the bats than anything else, but this one was tough.
The fact that the Jays don’t have a trustworthy right-handed relief pitcher bit them tonight. Jesse Carlson was a great story earlier in the season, but he has come back down to Earth with a thud. In his last 9 2/3 innings pitched, he’s allowed 19 baserunners and a slugging percentage over .500. He was brought in to get a big out in the 6th, dealing with Ichiro Suzuki with two on and two out, and got the groundball to keep the game at 6-3, but there should have been a righty in there to face Adrian Beltre with two out in the 7th. The problem is, there really isn’t one, other than Shawn Camp. And Camp’s the guy who gave up the game-winning hit to a hitter who is WAY worse than Beltre - and hey, if you enjoy a good semantic debate, you’ll love the LateNight JaysTalk call about Willie Bloom!
Jason Frasor I like, but he spends a lot of time in the doghouse, regardless of who’s managing, and Brandon League has been up here for over a week but hasn’t gotten into a game yet. That said, a one-run lead handed to Scott Downs and B.J. Ryan has tended to have been enough. It didn’t get to Ryan this time, because Snakeface gave up a run for the first time since April. He gets forgiven for that. Tough to forgive him for walking left-handed hitting Raul Ibanez to lead off the bottom of the 9th, though.
On the positive side of the ledger - twice the Jays loaded the bases with nobody out, and twice they scored three runs! Adam Lind continues to look very comfortable, contributing a pair of big two-out RBI hits. And Lyle Overbay hit a textbook double play ball that went right through the wickets of Jose Lopez at second! Maybe that worm is turning a bit.
I’m not going to pick on Vernon Wells for getting thrown out at third on what should have been an RBI single by Gregg Zaun in the 4th. Wells turned his back and high-tailed it back to second base as soon as the liner was hit, expecting Yuniesky Betancourt to catch it. Maybe he’s been watching too much of John McDonald. Still, if the ball’s caught, Wells doesn’t get doubled up. It didn’t, and he didn’t have a prayer of getting into third safely.
Still and all, despite the six runs (usually far more than enough for this team), they lost a game started by the Seattle bullpen, with six pitchers used and the M’s very close to being run out of rocks. They were in serious trouble if this game had gone beyond nine (not that it should have even been an issue). Very, very disappointing, and more than likely denying the Jays a shot at getting back to .500 during this road trip. In order to do that now, they have to run the table at least to Sunday.
The caps the Jays wore tonight were interesting. Blue, which is nice, since they’re the Blue Jays and all, and the Jays logo that appeared to be cut out of the Canadian flag. Kinda cool, I think, but I’m still not sure. It’s definitely a “third jersey” type of logo at best.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The LateNight JaysTalk:
Remember, Wednesdays with J.P. goes early when the Jays are out west. J.P. Ricciardi will be on with us before the network pre-game, starting at 8:30 pm Eastern on the Fan590 and this very website, if you’re not in radiic range.
Comments are encouraged, as always, the 24/7 JaysTalk is a wonderful thing!
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There are games that a team wins that they shouldnt win (so called “stolen” games). There are games a team loses that they shouldnt lose (so called “bad losses”). Over the course of a 162 game seaon (or in this case just over half that)..a decent team which i think the jays are..tend to have a similar number of games in both columns. BUT THE JAYS HAVE BEEN SOOOOO BAD IN THIS REGARD ITS MIND BOTTLING. I can see if you are a terrible team, you sure are gonna lose more games you should win than win games you should lose. The way I see it…out of the 7 games the jays have lost when up late its not UNREASONABLE to suggest they should have won 3. Out of the ZERO games they have won when down in the 7th or later….its not UNREASONABLE to suggest they should have won a measly TWO. that would result in five more wins, five less losses..and a team 7 games over instead of 3 games under..and there my friend is the season.
PS dont kill Jessie for tonights game..you cant POSSIBLY fault him for that craptastic “accidental” homerun by Beltre. The ball is over his head..was outside AND by him. beltre himself didnt even know where the ball was. that was the definition of craptastic.
MW: I don’t think I “killed” Carlson for the homer - you’re right, it was a good pitch, right where they wanted it, and Beltre Guerrero’d it and it barely got out.
- sammy jalazaiKind of a tough break for Bloomquist there. Here are the records he may break this year, courtesy of USS Mariner blog.
081 - Consecutive games without an XBH
155 - Consecutive at bats without an XBH
177 - Consecutive PAs without an XBH
086 - 2008 season ABs with no XBH
101 - 2008 season PAs with no XBH
Unofficial records:
100 - Consecutive games without an XBH - Greg Gross
223 - Consecutive at bats without an XBH - Jose Valdivielso
266 - Consecutive PAs without an XBH - Larry Lintz
124 - Full season ABs with no XBH - Dwain Anderson
144 - Full season PAs with no XBH - Dwain Anderson
Did I mention that Bloomquist sucks?
MW: Relatively.
- SteveIs BJ Ryan no longer the “go-to” guy in the pen with a 1-run lead in the 9th? Downs gets in a jam and Camp gets the call? Don’t quite get this strategy….but there is something that has confused me even more this season about the Jays bullpen management. Why do the Jays bring in Ryan to start the ninth inning of a tied game? I’ve seen them do it twice in the past month or so and both times the game went to extra innings, another reliever got in a jam, and instead of having the bullpen ace to go to, they bring in a guy who promptly coughs up the game winning hit. Surely they can’t be banking on scoring the winning run in the ninth (current hitting improvements notwithstanding!)
MW: The Jays didn’t have a 1-run lead in the 9th last night - it was a tie game on the road, so Ryan was being held back either for a save situation or for the 10th. Ryan has been used in a tie game in the 9th at home, which is the right thing to do, since once a game is tied at home after the 8th, there’s no longer any opportunity for a save.
- Matt CWillie Bloomquist does suck alot. His slugging sucks alot. His career onbase sucks alot. His career strikeout to walk ratio sucks alot. The caller who said he doesn’t suck, well that caller sucks alot.
MW: In relative terms.
- Dave JHi Mike: Very disappointing to say the least. At 6-2, I hate to say it, but I was counting my chickens…Mulliniks called Beltre’s homer a fluke and I had to agree, that pitch was up at his eyeballs, I don’t know how he hit it out (and he didn’t either). Oh well, heads down, onwards and…
One thing though, I saw a Seattle batter (forget who it was) call for a ruling on a checked swing. Why would he do that?
MW: What you probably saw was the home plate ump ringing him up, and then the batter pointing down as if to say - “why didn’t you ask him?” as opposed to calling for an actual appeal.
- Todd RiversWhat’s with Cito’s disenchantment of Eckstein?
I know his defense is sub-par but he’s hitting the ball really well since he came off the DL.
If Cito is just opposed to having a less than stellar fielder @ SS, I wouldn’t mind seeing Eckstein take some time @ 2B, where his limited arm range would be less of an issue.
Clearly, if David Eckstein is going to continue onward in this game he’s going to have to make the switch sooner than later.
MW: It seems that way, but there are a lot of mediocre defenders out there at shortstop.
- JasonHi Mike,
I know Eckstein’s numbers as of late look really good. However, I still can’t get down with him in the DH spot. Do you think there is a big bat to be aquired sometime between now and the deadline?
I know we’re looking past the JP / Dunn thing but, I think a guy that strikes out a lot and hits a lot of homeruns would look good in the middle of this lineup right about now. Richie Sexson perhaps?!
Keep up the good work.
MW: I’ll take Sexson to DH against lefties if the Mariners cut him, but I don’t want to pick up that salary. Would you be more comfortable with Scutaro as the DH?
- Matt from WaterlooLEAVE WILLIE ALONE MIKE
LEAVE FREE WILLIE ALONE
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/vote_for_the_worst_player_in_mlb/
- BKHey Mike,
I know its been said a lot in this blog by others but I will take a different approach with my disappointment of Overbay. First, I like the guy but his approach at the plate this year seems awful.He takes way too many pitches with RISP and doesn’t seem to stick to one plan at the plate (and I think he noted that to the press the other day after a particularly bad at-bat). But rather than demand he be traded or benched I would agree with your suggestion of hitting him lead-off or number two. He hits .203 with RISP but .276 with the bases empty. Meanwhile, Scutaro is hitting .370 with RISP so why not switch the two of them in the order. I doubt it would happen though.
Another thing I wanted to mention was in regards to pulling Eckstein for Stairs with runners on 2nd and 3rd. As nice as it was for Stairs to get in the game on Canada Day, the guy is horrible with runners in scoring position (and not to get too caught up on stats) but Eckstein has been much more dependable in such a situation this year (.333 vs. .214 for Stairs) plus Stairs is even worse against lefties and Cito had to know a lefty was warming up in the pen.
MW: I guess Cito liked the Jimenez-Stairs match-up better than the Corcoran-Eckstein.
- JeffHi Mike,
These late nights are a killer. I tossed it around but have concluded that your ex coaching nemesis gets the nod
that Willie does not suck.
As his average is only slightly lower than the Jays team average and 50 pts. above Johnny Mac’s, that is not a professional enough (from you) description. However, you get pardoned as it was too late at night for “adverbage”.
I wondered a few things:
On the mlb.com standings page
there are team records against
LHP and RHP. The Jays crushed
the LHP from last night but,
ultimately, lost the game. Does that count as a loss against the LHP? Their record was already one of the worst against LHP but it just shows how stats can marginalized.
Also, this BABPIP stat is
really starting to seem like it’s only for those with not
enough else to do in their lives as OBP (as you said, you’d take a simple walk anytime) and maybe slugging
%age are pretty reliable.
Meanwhile,
The Jays magic number is now
down to 68, second lowest to Seattle (although tied with Cleveland) and there are too many teams to jump over for the Jays to make it. Their number is also lower because, except for a few teams, the Jays have played three more games (I presume because of fewer rain outs) than anyone else. However, there’s no saving grace in that stat
because games lost cannot be recovered, just like last night’s disaster! Oh well.
Also, have you been watching or participating the League’s “beat the streak” from promotion? spooky93 (whoever that is) is now at 46 and in two weeks of correct hitter predictions may win $1Million.
Some of the smart assess who
comment in your blog should be in this to see how well they would compare. Of course, there’s a lot of luck involved
either way.
MW: There’s little doubt that Bloomquist is in the bottom 3-5% of big-league hitters in an overall sense (not short-tern call-ups, etc., and not just this year). Last night’s loss counts as one against a lefty, because it’s measured by the starter. It’s very cool that that dude has a 46-game hit streak going, I wish him luck. That’s what he’s had, and he needs eleven more games of it!
- BRick in OakvilleSo if the Jays want to get to 90 wins which it will most certainly take to get the wild card. (probally more like 93 or 94) but just for the jays to get to 90 wins they will need to go 49-28 the rest of the way. Which I don’t think theres anyone who believes they can do that.
It will make it more difficult if their new coach continues to use David Eckstein as the DH. While he puts the black hole in the lineup to play SS.
MW: It’s not going to take 93 or 94 wins to get the wild card. Was there anyone who believed that the Rockies could do it at this point last year? The Cubs? The Phillies? The Yankees? OK, maybe the Yankees.
- Dan MYeah, Frasor does seem to still be in the doghouse. It’s as if once that Frasor-as-closer trial last May was deemed mediocre that he’s been buried ever since. I would think that he’s the #3 reliever on this team (Ryan, Downs, Frasor, Accardo) based on talent, yet the lefties seem to come in sooner.
Am I missing something as to why he is still buried in the bullpen?
MW: He works slowly, which makes him appear nervous, he’s undersized, which means that he’s not looked upon as “strong” or “tough”, and when he blows up, he blows up real good.
- JoeMike,
Good thing Overbay got hit in the 3rd because he looked like he was trying to cut into D.Lee’s lead in GDP. Nothing like a classic 4-3-2 DP.
So, if you think that a .340 OBP isn’t good enough, what is good enough? Are you looking for Devo type with a .319 career obp? .340 is 10 points higher than the MLB average. Not amazing, but surely good enough if you can bring something to plate in addition, like speed or power (stuff that Overbay lost last year).
MW: A .340 obp isn’t close to good enough to be a classic lead-off man, which is what we’re discussing. The minimum for me is .380.
- JWDidn’t like the logo. Good attempt though. The positive is Jays can still win the series and a 2-1 series win in Anaheim will be perfect. I’ll take a 4-2 West Coast trip anyday.
That is the mantra right now..win one series at a time. baby steps is the way to go.
MW: It’s the only thing to hope for, it’s not like they’re going to rip off a 17-3 or something like that, though that would be really cool.
- Beburg aka The relief pitcherMike, I agree - there was no way this game should be in the loss column - but when you do your best to give it away it’s gonna happen.
However - as to Carleson and the pitch to Beltre that he sent over the wall - that was a freak hit for sure - a lucky bat on ball contact. The pitch was above his freakin shoulders and was the thrown right where Zauhn called for it.
You don’t want to “pick on Wells” Mike for getting thrown out at 3rd in the 4th. Well I’m not picking on him either - but - WOW - that was a huge rookie base-running mistake! How do you not take a quick look to track the ball on that play on your way back to 2nd - beats me.
Tough play for Litsch, he was doing a great job defensively until an un-neccessary rushed throw to first that sailed “OVERbay” and allowed the inning to stay alive. That play more than any other was key to the game and his pitching thereafter.
The cap logo for Canada Day - looked cheap - yes it did look like some kind of cut-out for sure. Just a simple red Maple Leaf would have looked much cleaner. Or better still the old logo with the bird, ball and Maple Leaf.
Cito has to get some confidence in his righties out of the pen - or maybe he knows something we don’t.
Thanks.
- BobMike, I really have to feel sorry for Carlson on the HR pitch to Beltre. That pitch was waaay up and away, (cap high or higher) and Beltre had no business even swinging at it, let alone making HR contact! Probably the only other hitter in the majors that even makes a pass at that pitch is Vlad.
I’m not sure what the radio call was on it, (for one of the few times all night I was listening to TV), but Rance called it a “pure fluke”.
Further to your comments about the bullpen, if my count is correct this is only the 7th time all year that they have blown a save, and the first since that horrible first week in June (3 in five nights). I believe only four teams in the majors have less BS — Yankees 4, Rays & Angels 5, and Phillies 6. Clear evidence that the W/L record is not (primarily) the pitchers’ fault.
MW: Like I said, it’s mainly on the hitters, and showing that number means that far more often than not the bullpen has been put in to preserve a tie and hasn’t been able to do it for long enough (see Jays @ Pirates - Cito’s redebut) because the offense simply refuses to score.
- NormYour correct Mike, my glasses are very rose coloured - been pointed out to me many times, ha ha! Hey, I like to call it “cheerful optimisim”!
One of your followers the other day mentioned opening and closing the roof at the Rogers Centre.
I do “vibration analysis” for a living and was one of the guys up there (what a view by the way) when the roof was commissioned. One of our guys monitoring current estimated it cost less than 100 bucks to open or close the lid (energy wise that is).
We monitored the roof working for all home games for the first season with a “birds-eye” view of the palying field. By the way the vibration up there on the drives and steel wheels is minimal - well within specification for the run speed and application.
Not baseball but thought I would throw this out there as the question was asked.
Thanks.
MW: Very cool. But if it cost $100 in 1989, what does that mean now?
- BobThis game is another reason why the season is quite over for the Jays. They finally get hits, yet the pitching can’t hold it together. The definition of a bad team is one that gets hitting and doesn’t pitch well and pitches well and doesn’t get any hitting when need be!
At this point of the season, they are a last place team. It’s really hard to believe with all that pitching that this is the case, but the Indians are in a similar boat as well. Can a miracle happen? In a division with powerhouses like the Red Sox, Yankees and yes, the Rays there is no hope this season. The Os are playing decently and the Tigers are coming back.Yes, the Jays can pitch but the offense is up and down (mostly down) that there is very little hope. Cito and Co have done a decent job pushing for more offense, but RISP remains weak. If they had an impact bat or even two things could have been different BUT the Jays couldn’t have afforded this spotty April and June that they have had.
AJ can bring something back in a trade. Teams like the Yankees, Cubs, Phillies and Brewers are hungry for starters. Contrary to some reports, an AJ trade can be fruitful for the Jays because of the dearth of pitching. Even tough AJ would be a rental, remember what Boston gave up for Gagne ( a rental) last year? Hendry of the Cubbies will try to get an extra pitcher because his fans don’t want to wait another 100 years for a World Series ring. The Jays can get something decent for AJ and should consider that in light of the fact that the wild card and season is slipping away.
MW: They’re definitely considering it, but had they won last night, they would have been 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite what’s been an awful year. The season is not over.
- jayRandom question, totally unrelated to anything going on with the Jays right now:
If John Olerud was a major league ready prospect in 1989 at the time of the draft, how did he fall to the 3rd round?
Was it because of signability concerns? Did the Jays simply like what they saw and figured that there was no point in putting him in the minors?
MW: Signability. He had made it very clear that he was not going to turn pro yet.
- MichaelMike, I just listened to last night’s Jays’ Talk, and I’d like to come back to the call about the “4-out inning”.
When he asked “is it necessary for a runner to tag in order to score on a fly ball”, you answered “No”. I assume that you meant “…providing the defensive team does not appeal” — because as far as I know this is the only way a run can score in the situation described, without the runner having tagged. But since you didn’t specify that that is what you meant, I’m curious to know if you had something else in mind.
Secondly, specifically in relation to the 4-out question, I’m not sure you are correct. I believe the rule states that “no run can score on a force-out”, and further believe that a “non-tag” situation falls into the force out category. If I am correct, then when the third out is made on the “non-tagged runner”, the inning would be over, and the run would not count — even IF no appeal was made on the runner who crossed the plate.
Many years ago I was an umpire (softball, not baseball, but the rules are basically the same), and that’s the way I recall it — but my memory may not be quite as sharp as it once was.
By the way, a quick story from my umpiring days — I was calling a game from the ladies’ first division, and (as usual) one of the teams thought they were getting the “short end of the stick”.
There was a foul tip which went over the catcher’s head and hit me directly in the chest, and by instinct my arms came together and I caught the ball at waist level. The young lady who was catching turned around, picked the ball out of my mid-section, and very sweetly said “I knew you must be good for something!” What could I say?
MW: Firstly - yep, that’s what I meant. Secondly, nope. When a runner fails to tag on a fly ball, it’s an appeal play, not a force play, hence the need for the fourth out in that situation. You’re supposed to know that, since you were an umpire and stuff!
- NormI almost think that with this starting staff, you have to go with a 10 or 11 man staff. It’s hard to come in after a 10-day layoff and throw quality strikes, especially if you don’t possess a 95MPH fastball. Camp, Tallet, Wolfe, Carlson all rely on movement and breaking pitches … so it would seem that they need more consistent work, which is hard to get with a 12 man bullpen and a starting staff that goes deep. I wouldn’t have let Carlson face Beltre, who crushes lefties, but if you have a manager who is going to go at least 1 inning per reliever, you might as well only have 5-6 guys in the bullpen.
As for Texeira, it seems like he’s either ticketed for the Yankees, or going back to Atlanta. If the Yankees get him, I think Giambi might a be good option for the Jays (Damon, Matsui, Posada are already in a fight for that DH spot). Maybe for 2009, trade Overbay, move Lind to first, and bring up Snider ?
MW: I’m with you, an 8-man bullpen is a waste. Snider is not ready for the majors yet. As for Giambi, he’s having a good year, but he’s not that far removed from a pretty rough stretch, and he’s no spring chicken.
- Alex HFor me Mike, this is really the first time that I’ve noticed the effect of Casey Janssen not being on this team.
MW: The bullpen still has the 2nd-best ERA in the league, though.
- JohnMike,
A couple callers a few weeks ago were complaining about Gibby’s use of BJ Ryan in the 9th inning in a tie game (that we ended up losing)… I thought we would have seen him in last nights tie game in the 9th… Was he not able to get warm in time, or does Cito subscribe to a different theory then “don’t leave your best arm in the pen”?
MW: On the road, Cito was holding Ryan back another inning or two in case a save situation arose.
- Andrew (Guelph)Bob, thanks for the post a while back! Well written and well mannered. It’s great to see all the regulars around here and their views on the team, it definitely enhances following the team for me and I think forums like this in general can help to show that sometimes fans of teams do have more in common than just the fact that they’re fans. It also brings out a lot of differences, but hey, that’s just the way things work. By focusing on what we do have in common and then slowly expanding it, I think we’re all a lot better off.
Now, I wrote the rest of this before reading post #30 from the “Parrish” blog. I think you may have a better idea of how Mike is now. He takes jabs at people, and makes no apologies for it. That’s just the way he is.
Anyways, you’re right that you weren’t applauding Mike and I took it out of context. But I still have a problem with what you were doing, which is defending someone against attacks, without mentioning that the person you were defending treats others the same way he is being treated.
1.“I just don’t get the so called “human element” as to everyone being allowed to express “freedom of speech” -if you have nothing nice to say about anyone - then say nothing. Sure we have all gone down the road of saying things we should not have - however to take advantage of every opportunity to “take a shot” at someone - it only shows your own mis-directed anger and dis-satisfaction within ones self!
That quote could be perfectly ascribed to Mike, the guy who calls his caller’s idiots as soon as they hang up the phone. You’re saying people should take the high road. When I asked Mike why he didn’t take the high road more often, he responded with “Why should I?”
And I do believe that perceptions play a big part in what is rude or not rude. I don’t think it is what it is, I think everybody takes offense to things differently. Just look at the AJ hat tip or the Chicago comments: some people thought they were funny or overblown, and some people thought they were rude and offensive. Yeah, sometimes people say things that almost all of us would take as rude, but except in the rarest of cases I don’t think it’s black and white.
I do sometimes(probably too often) bring up the negative side, but it’s because I don’t like people getting praise where it’s not due, for the sole reason it makes them think those actions are ok. If we only bring up the positive about someone like Rolen, and nobody ever remembers the bad, and the guy is praised and applauded, then there’s a good chance he’ll think he can get away with it again. I don’t want to be negative all the time, but I don’t want to ignore things either. I was just pointing out for everyone else who was reading that the guy was viewed as a malcontent in both Philly and St. Louis, had problems with Phillies management and Bowa, complained openly about how the team was doing things, and was generally viewed as someone who stepped out of line with the view that he knew better than his manager. I don’t think those things should go unnoticed when talking about an individual, no matter how many good things he does. He can still be viewed as a great person if the good outweighs the bad, but that should be up for each of us to decide when we know all the facts.
I’m sorry for the Saint thing, I definitely shouldn’t have taken it to that level.
And, I’ll admit I was unaware of his charity work, and I think it’s great. It certainly does help him be shown in a different light and I wish all athletes took that kind of initiative and put forth that commitment.(Both monetarily and time-wise.) However, I understand why a lot don’t, and since I don’t know what I’d do in that position I can’t really say anything.
MW: Remember, too, that a lot of people do a lot of charitable work anonymously. As for the rest of it, if you want to be the one who points out the negative when you feel people are being too positive, that’s your prerogative. At least you tend to do it rationally and with reasonable intelligence.
- Dan WI lied before, I wasn’t caught up from the weekend. I continue to disagree on your whole steroids argument, because when I was listening to the show when you were talking about it you couldn’t go more than 2 sentences without making me do a double take.
I agree that if a player really wants to be on something, he still can be, but some of the leaps you make from there just have no basis. The new policies are still a deterrent, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that a large percentage of players who were on could have been scared off.
And, you actually made the sentence(or close to it): “I don’t think there’s a difference between a guy hitting a 470 foot Home Run and a 410 foot one.” That’s just absurd, because as far as I can tell, logically this type of thing would work on a sliding scale, and if a 470 hit was turning into a 410 one, then 410 ones would be turning into about 358 foot ones, and 358 foot ones would be turning into about 312 foot ones. Now it may not work exactly like that, but it sure as hell doesn’t work the way you implied with that statement.
The caller was dead-on on the fact that you simply don’t know what goes into hitting a baseball 400 feet.
No one does.
You’re right on the fact that pitchers should be off it in the same proportion that hitters are, but does that really mean that it should make them more apt to giving up HR’s? As far as conditioning and injuries and maybe even a tad of velocity, yup, but I believe velocity IS down as well and that it’s easier to hit a HR on a 95 MPH fastball than it is a 90 MPH fastball.
We don’t know what goes into hitting a HR and how steroids affects it, so dismissing the notion that they could be down because steroid use is down doesn’t make sense to me. It might not be the cause, but it could certainly have something to do with it.
MW: It’s not the cause, but of course it has something to do with it, everything has something to do with everything (in a general sense, but I’m not talking about The Butterfly Effect here). Sometimes, when you’re live and on the radio and stuff, you have to exaggerate for effect. There was a study done a few years ago that said it was doubtful that hitters on steroids were adding more than 5-10 feet to the flyballs they hit. So it’s not that 470-foot homers are turning into 410-foot homers, it’s that 450-foot homers are turning into 440-foot homers. Yes, there’s a “Rafael Palmeiro” effect, I think, to juicing, in that when a guy goes from a 40+ double, 18-homer guy to a 30+ double, 40-homer guy something is probably up. But I don’t think the leaguewide downward trend even has mostly to do with guys de-juicifying. It has more to do with better pitching, colder weather and the lack of guys like Bonds, Thomas, Piazza (even though he only hit single digits last year) and such. And anyone who wants to juice can still juice.
- Dan WOh yeah, to the guy who asked Mike for gambling advice, not sure if you read the blog, but here’s a bit of info for you if you do:
Over the past couple of years, one of the best strategies in betting baseball has been to completely ignore the starting pitcher and focus solely on the bullpen. In the last two years, if you bet solely on the team with the better bullpen every time, you would’ve made lots and lots of money, because the market was undervaluing its importance compared to the starter. Now, this year the market is correcting itself, but I still feel there is a bit of value in looking solely at bullpens.
The main thing you need to realize is that you’re not going to beat the market on an overall basis, so you need to look at key indicators that you think it’s over/under valuing. You can try combining them, mixing them, trying to see the bigger picture, but it takes a hell of a lot of work, so I’d suggest sticking to one indicator like you were looking for from Mike and going with it.
Apart from the bullpen thing, another reasonable thing to do is to look solely at BABIP. If you just pick a couple of starters with a high BABIP and always bet on them, or pick a couple pitchers with a very low BABIP and bet against them, you should do alright.
Also, never make your gambling judgments based on what you see happen a few times. If you were watching the Sunday night game, don’t let it make you think Marshall is the second coming. You can take those things into account, but back it up with lots and lots of stats.
But Mike’s right, the best advice you’ll ever get on gambling is to not do it, though everybody has to figure it out for themselves. If you want to throw a few bucks on a game here or there that’s cool, but realize that the only way you’re going to make money on it in the long run is if you take it to the point where it’s not fun anymore.
MW: Ladies and gentlemen, this was the 10,000th comment ever to be posted on this blog. And I have to say, a really good one to have that honour. I can’t thank you all enough for making this thing as popular as it is. Some blogs on this site are still looking for their 10th comment, never mind #10,000. Way to go, everyone!
- Dan WDear Dr. MW
I feel that the great Homer Simpson said it best when he said, “that team sure did suck last night. They just plain sucked! I’ve seen teams suck before, but
they were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.” (Said of course jokingly in response to the Willy Bloom fan). But seriously, this was the one that got away. I am almost convinced that the bats are coming to life. I guess that tonight’s game might be an indicator of how much confidence this team has. I sure hope that they can bounce back from this tough loss.
So it looks like Ec is not Cito’s shortstop. Defence-wise, I agree with this decision. Empathy-wise, I feel for Ec because he seems to be (I say seems to be because I don’t know the man) a great guy. Since his contract is up at season’s end, do you think that JP will try and move him? If he does, what do you speculate the return might be on him?
Keep up the good work.
MW: Eckstein does seem to be a great guy, indeed. I believe that if he’s not going to play shortsop on a regular basis, he does have more value in trade than he does to the team, so I think that J.P. should try to move him in that scenario. But I don’t think the return will be huge.
- KyleWhy didn’t BJ Ryan pitch last night?
MW: There was no save situation.
- Shmuel YitzchokIt’s good that the jays brought out a special hat for canada day, but why they heck don’t they have a maple leaf or something canadian in their logo like they did before? They even have a proud canadian owner! Why can’t they have a canadian flag on the side of their hat or on the sleeve of their jersey even?
MW: I don’t know, you’ll have to ask Paul Godfrey.
- AndrewMissed a lot of bloggage with the long weekend but was able to read through yesterdays. I don’t understand what the concern is with Halladay’s BABIP. Of pitchers with greater than 70 IP’s his BABIP of .286 is in the middle third of the sample. Combine this with a GB% in the top 10% of the same sample and an above average infield defence and I think Halladay’s numbers are more than justifiable. In fact with the return of Aaron Hill (hopefully) and what appears to be a willingness of Cito to use John Mcdonald a little more than Gibbons (I think everyone would love to see Mcdonald as Halladay’s personal shortstop) it’s certainly possible that a BABIP of .286 may be on the high side of Halladay’s outlook for the rest of 2008.
Where BABIP should be an indicator of “luck” I think lies more with guys like Shawn Marcum and the prime BABIP candidate Justin Duchscherer. Both have BABIP’s lower than .230 and GB%’s in the bottom 50% of the sample group. At least Marcum has the strikeout numbers to somewhat justify his ERA and WHIP but Duchscherer is almost completely unexplainable.
Is there any concern from within the Blue Jays organization with the number of innings the young starters are putting up? I know McGowan had a long stint in the minors and Marcum & Litsch were both college pitchers but are the Jays willing to let these guys go above 200 innings and if so how far? Is it possible that we could see some or all of these guys shut down in Sept if the Jays remain this far out of it?
MW: It’s no longer a concern with Marcum, obviously, but they may pull the reins back late if the team is out of it. I doubt it, though.
- MattAn off blue jays topic:
i read that the players union is filing a grievance on behalf of shawn chacon. The guy pushed the general manager to the floor in the clubhouse!! How can the players union seriously think this an issue/guy they should be sticking up for?
So much more has happened without anyone batting an eye lash (brett meyers, elijah dukes, Sidney Ponson) but seriously you’d like to think there are some ethics somewhere.
MW: You’d like to, but business is business. The players’ union doesn’t want Chacon to be terminated without pay. It’s what unions tend to do.
- jeremyYAWN
- Vito From HamiltonThe caps were kind of cool, but one a year is enough. :)
Adam Lind was tremendous last night. I was able to catch his first three AB’s and they were all very high quality. Especially the second one.
With Tallet, Carlson, Downs and Ryan in the Pen, we really need to come up with a RHP to put in the middle of them. Too much was asked of Carlson last night, IMO. Any idea of our options…names floating out there that could fill the role for us? Or do you believe League will be given that opportunity first? A RH reliever is a heckuva lot easier to get than the thumper bat.
MW: I think Frasor or League could be that, but League has to get into a game first. Accardo, certainly, but he’s going to be out a while.
- JeffThe only call I can question is the decision by Zaun to call for the high fastball to Beltre. While I sort of agree with Mulliniks that the HR was a bit of a fluke, Carlson had thrown two curveballs that he hadn’t come close to hitting. Sometimes you can think too much in this game and this I believe was one of those circumstances.
PS-Morrow looked awfully good for Seattle.
MW: Morrow sure did, they love him up there. Beltre had no business hitting that ball out - if he’d done the same to a curveball, people would have said “why did they throw him three in a row?”
- mike glattHey Mike,
I was at the game on Sunday with my Wife and she brought up a question that I’d like to pass on to you. Has anyone ever hit (pop-up) the infrastructure of the roof of the dome at the rogers centre similar to how it often happens in Tampa? I’ve never been to the St. Pete Dome - but is ours taller than theirs?
MW: The roof at Rogers Centre is much, much higher (32 stories, I think) than the roof in T-Bay or Minnesota. It’s all but impossible to hit the ceiling.
- Andrew SorlieHi Mike, I’ve often wondered WHO determines or has the last say of what uniforms the Jays will wear? Ted Rogers? He has more important things on his mind. It hardly seems like a job for J. P. Who makes the final decesion on approving the Blue Jays uniforms? For four years now MOST fans have not liked the black. I heard it was for the 20 something in 2004, but they are 30 something now. You really shouldn’t criticize, insult, or make fun of people writing on this blog unless they have it coming. No one is impressed.
MW: If you’re not impressed, change the channel. No one is forcing you to read this. On that note - people don’t age by a decade over four years. Many people who were 20-something in 2004 remain 20-something. I heard it was the starting pitcher who picks what shirt they wear.
- forrestgumpI’m not sure why this team is so bad if you look at the 92 team its pretty similar.
John Olerud- hits doubles hits for a high average gets on base. Sounds alot like Lyle Overbay
Roberto Alomar- Great defence with some good hitting. Aaron Hill is just as good. (if he was not injuried)
Kelly Gruber- alot like Rolan great defence with some decent hitting
Manuel Lee- could not bat but played great defence. Alot like John Macdonald
Pat Borders- could not hit but blocked balls in the dirt well. Zaun is just as good at defence and is a better hitter
Joe Carter- No one like him but they need someone like him to do the little things to bring guys home.
Devon White- Wells has the better bat but Devon had better defence.
Candy Maldonado- dont have a starting left fielder to compare him too.
Dave Winfield- aging DH with some power still in him. Alot like Frank Thomas until he left. Now i guess kinda like Matt Stairs.
Pitching Staffs were both really good so i wont compare them.
Go Jays!!!
MW: Overbay isn’t nearly as good as Olerud was, and Aaron Hill just as good as Roberto Alomar? Not even a contest.
- PaulCarlson probably shouldn’t have been facing Beltre, but Beltre hit an opposite field homer on a neck high 0-2 fastball. That’s not a predictable outcome for that pitch.
MW: No, it’s not, but it doesn’t change the fact that he shouldn’t have been out there.
- TorgenMike do you have any idea why Downs didn’t throw Sexson a breakball? Not even as a show me pitch?
MW: He was trying to get ahead? The guy hadn’t given up a run in two months, I’m not going to argue with him.
- Dan MMike,
So much for Downs breaking Herisher’s record. Why was League called up if he isn’t going to be used? The problem with the Jays pen and no reliable right handed reliever is that they are both hurt (Jannsen and Accardo).
Let’s just hope the Jays take another series with a W tonight. The coaching staff said they have a goal of .500 by the All-Star break. Maybe then the Rays will start reading the clippings about themselves and get a little too confident.
- Aaron KerMike I saw the seattle batter call for an appeal aswell. The ump hadn’t rung him up on it. I think the batter was just showing how confident he was that he didn’t swing. pointing and just saying “ask if you want I didn’t swing” they did ask and the ump agreed with the hitter.
- Dan MThis isn’t so much a question to you specifically, Mike, as much as it is a question to all the Miked Up blog readers: Guys, what should the Jays organization do to boost attendance?
Granted, the team’s per game attendance figures have been increasing:
2008: 21st out of 30 with 26,668 per game.
2007: 18th with 29,143.
2006: 18th with 28,422.
2005: 23rd with 24,724.
2004: 24th with 23,457.
2003: 23rd with 22,215.
2002: 25th with 20,220.
2001: 23rd with 23,647
Not so bad, right? We bottomed out in 2002, but we topped 29,000 per game last year. 18th in the majors.
The thing is, our stadium is still pretty empty for every home game, and even though more people are coming out to watch, the level of growth does not seem to outpace that of the other MLB teams.
Team Rank In Terms of Stadium Capacity
2008: 22nd of 30 at 52.8% full
2007: 22nd at 57.7% full
2006: 23rd at 56.3% full
2005: 27th at 48.9% full
2004: 28th at 46.4% full
2003: 26th at 44.0% full
2002: 26th at 40.0% full
2001: 23rd at 47.4% full
Seems like we’re stuck in neutral. So, what needs to be done to get more people through the turnstiles (besides winning)?
MW: Winning.
- Kipps Thompsonoffense scores six runs and the team loses and everyone is acting like the pitchers wasted some huge offensive outburst. of course the pitching should have held up but guys..6 runs isnt a windfall…people are acting like it was a 10 run lead. im just thinking that for ALL the games the pitchers have won for the hitters..the hitters could have won one or two for the pitchers…
perfect example was last night when the jays had scored 3 runs already..yet had noone out and men on 2nd and third…and didnt score any more runs. what was really perplexing was how cito got out managed. the second he went to stairs off the bench everyone and their mom knew that seattle was going to a lefty. anyone with a computer would then realize that eckstein has a much higher likelihood of success against a righty than matty does vs a lefty. but cito has been given the golden mulligan to do no wrong so i guess noone will point this out. oh by the way..that alex rios sure looks like a different hitter since they fired gary..not. hes hitting the ball slightly better but its more than likely just cyclic rather than a pardigm shift caused by some huge coaching induced revelation.
- sammy jalalzaiJaysTalk Verbal: I will be unavailable tonight as I have pitched many minutes in the last two games, ha ha.
JaysTalk Digital: By my calculations, the John Parrish spot will not be needed until 7/12/08 v. NYY. What is the rationale for keeping him on the 25-man roster presently? Would it make more sense to re-call a RH reliever like Wolfe (yes, this would create a bloated 8 man bullpen) or failing that, bringing up a hitter to create a five-man bench?
It occurred to me that Parrish might pitch in relief here and there, but 5 lefties in the ‘pen? Talk about manic mano sinistra!
Adrian 0T3
MW: I’m surprised that they still do the “T” thing between the numbers in the oughts and the teens. Parrish is still here because they’d have to expose him to waivers in order to send him down.
- Adrian, co-alumniHow can you put up with people like Dan W? You deserve a raise, Mike.
I’m getting really fed up with people ragging on J.P.’s job. Aside from him signing injury risks, breaking Fasano’s promise and taking a jab at Adam Dunn, he’s done little to nothing wrong. HE doesn’t draft people, it’s the scouts, and that’s what most people get all worked up about.
Anybody who can trade a malcontent now-minor leaguer with less than a season on his contract (Shea Hillenbrand) for a quality set-up man still in the first years of his career is a good G.M, hands down.
Mike, what do you think were J.P.’s best and worst trades since taking over?
MW: Hmmmm. In chronological order: Best - Mike Kremblas for Tom Wilson; Mike Rouse and Chris Mowday for Cory Lidle; Bobby Kielty for Ted Lilly; Mark Hendrickson and Sandy Nin for Justin Speier; Tom Mastny for John McDonald; Bubbie Buzachero for Brian Tallet; Shea Hillenbrand and Vinnie Chulk for Jeremy Accardo; Dave Bush, Zach Jackson and Gabe Gross for Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim; Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen. Worst - Josh Phelps for Eric Crozier; Chad Gaudin for Dustin Majewski.
- JasonHi Mike.
And now for something different that current Jays talk….
It seems that whenever I see media types compile an “All Time Best” list of the various positions, the choice for greatest second baseman ever seems to be Joe Morgan.
While I’m a little too young to have seen/remember Morgan play during his career, I can’t help but think that perhaps Roberto Alomar is more deserving of such an honour.
If you compare career offensive stats, the two are very similar (with Morgan providing a bit more home run power and Alomar owning the better career batting average). However, I can’t imaging Morgan being better than Alomar defensively, and Robbie bests Morgan handily in career gold gloves (10 vs. 5).
What are your thoughts? Is Robbie the all-time king of second basemen and are we simply seeing another example of American bias in these admittedly ’subjective’ lists, or was Morgan really superior to Alomar…?
Also, is Alomar a lock for the Hall of Fame, and if so, how long will they make him wait?
MW: It’s not American bias, Alomar spent the vast majority of his career playing in the States. It’s funny - Morgan’s second most-comparable player is Alomar. Morgan’s prime was a little before my time, so I can’t compare the two defensively, but I can’t imagine he’d have been better with the glove than Alomar (he may well have been, though). Alomar has Morgan in career avg., obp., slg., but Morgan has Alomar in career OPS+: 132 to 116. Both were fantastic base stealers, and both at an 80% success rate. I’ll take Alomar, having seen his wizardry first-hand, but it’s close.
- James“MW: A .340 obp isn’t close to good enough to be a classic lead-off man, which is what we’re discussing. The minimum for me is .380.”
Mike, this argument of yours is seriously getting ridiculous. There are 30 players in all of baseball who get on at a .380 OBP, that’s not even one per team. When you consider that the majority of those guys are hitting in the 3-4 hole, it’s just asinine what you are saying. Sure, everyone would LOVE for their leadoff hitters to be Rickey Henderson. The fact of the matter is they aren’t, and never will be, and to expect a leadoff hitter to have a .380 OBP in today’s game just doesn’t work. It’s about time you start giving these guys with .340-.350 OBPs and tremendous base stealing ability (nobody had a problem with Maury Wills) their due, and it would be nice if the Jays had one of them leading off “creating” offense, regardless of what you think.
MW: I disagree.
- AriAlso, looking at some minor league stats, Brett Cecil and J.P. Arencibia are having great years and they’re both in AA New Hampshire already since being drafted only last year. Is it possible that we’ll see them in September?
Afterall, Arencibia has 71 RBI between Single A- Dunedin and AA- New Hampshire in only 71 games, and Brett Cecil is becoming a Shaun Marcum replica — low ERA and low wins.
MW: It’s very, very doubtful that either one of them will be in the bigs by September.
- JasonIt’s true that Carlson has come back to earth a bit, lately, but you can hardly fault him on that homer. Damn, who’d ever think anyone would hit that pitch: it was almost over his head!
MW: Indeed. He still shouldn’t have been in there, though.
- MikieMike - Could Leyva have been any help on Wells’ base running error? Vernon looked very foolish - like something out of little league. Come to think of it so did Lopez in the field and Litsch with the throwing error. Ironically Verno’s blunder was probably the worst and it does not show up in the box score.
MW: It does in that it took a hit away from Gregg Zaun, but I really don’t think there was anything that Wells could have done. Even if he had peeked over his shoulder, he was caught in no-man’s land and probably would have been thrown out at third anyway.
- DanielMike,
Incidentally, I was under the impression that League had been called up at the insistence of Cito: thought he had a great arm and should be in the majors. Am I wrong about that? If so, okay, but if not, why do you suppose then that Cito won’t now use him? Did I miss something? Did he get into a game I didn’t see and misperform?
MW: You’re not misrembering any misperformance. He hasn’t been used yet, I don’t know why.
- MikiePS: For clarification, by “tonight’s game” I’m refering to the one coming up on July 2.
- KyleHello Mike,
Further to your comments regarding the Jays not having a reliable right handed reliever, do you think they would look to someone like Mike MacDonald in Syracuse? He’s been pitching well, 1-0, 2.75 era in 55.2 innings, or even look at someone in AA like they did with Litsch last seeason? Robert Ray has been pitching well, 3-1, 0.92 era in 29 innings. I’m assuming Wolfe will be back once he’s healthy, same said for Accardo. Do you think they would possibly send Frasor or Camp down and give one of these other players a shot?
Cheers Mike!!
You do a magnificent job on here
MW: Thanks. Both MacDonald and Ray are starting in the minors, so it’s doubtful they’d be called up to help in the bullpen.
- T.ScholczyHey Mike
Dustin Mcgowan will get hit all over Safeco tonight because with his diabetes his vision weakens as the night goes on. That is why he wears glasses in most night games but not in day games according to Jesse Barfield. Just look at these stats.
ERA WHIP BAA
Day 3.99 1.50 .309
Night 4.38 1.35 .261
plus
Home 2.20 1.20 .249
Away 6.19 1.57 .299
Imagine his vision wth a 10:00 eastern start
So am I right to think that he’ll get knocked around tonight?
MW: Maybe, but I would think that your guess would be as a result of his home/road splits, because it looks to me like he pitches better at night.
- benNo one wears the goat’s horns for this. That home run off Carlsson was beyond fluky. And Scott Downs has been solid al year. That said, it’s another loss in the column, so we travel on our weary way.
Maybe Rios has been replaced by his evil, lazy and air-headed twin? I’m sure it’s just my perception, but it looks to me like it’s the bottom third of the order that gets the job done recently, while the others just kind of stand around and strike out.
- reyesMike, I know Anton is banned and I thank you for taking a stand. Please do not allow him back into the forum.
I would like to mention that I am a first time poster long time reader but Mike I have a question… How can you be sure that Anton doesn’t make up a fake name and fake email and continue to write you?
MW: I have everybody’s IP address.
- Dave DillmanIf the Jays do try to deal A.J which I think they should do if they are not within 5-7 games of the division leader at the deadline, what will they likely get for him? Wil any team actually give up a “top flite” prospect?
MW: Top flight? I would think so. Good starting pitching is gold.
- Brandon F. London, OnMW: It’s not going to take 93 or 94 wins to get the wild card. Was there anyone who believed that the Rockies could do it at this point last year? The Cubs? The Phillies? The Yankees? OK, maybe the Yankees
Mike don’t say “its not” because it very well could. just because you don’t think it will doesn’t mean it wont.
I’ll concede that the Jay’s aren’t completely out of it. but you’d be nuts to bet on the Jays to make the playoffs. You’d have to agree that the jays chance would be less then 10% no?
MW: Yes, I don’t think that’s a big concession. I have said many times that it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult for them to make the playoffs. And please don’t get all caught up in semantics. No one can predict the future, and while some might be either arrogant or stupid enough or both to believe that they actually can, I know I can’t. If I say something “will” or “won’t” happen, it should be understood that it’s my opinion, and not gospel.
- dan MScotty Campbell was named to the “World” team Roster for the upcoming Futures game at Yankee stadium during the All-Star game festivities. I havent heard much about this kid until this… Why hasnt he been mentioned as one of our top prospects??
MW: He has. You haven’t been reading here often enough.
- Andrew (Guelph)no casey janssen hurts
- slobberfaceI can’t believe you’re knocking Jesse Carlson. Did you see the pitch that Beltre hit out? It was neck high and outside. NECK HIGH and outside. Beltre had no clue where he hit it. The only player who has any business hitting that pitch for a homer is Vlad Guerrero.
About the right-handed relievers: notwithstanding his last outing, Brian Wolfe is fairly dependable. I would have put him in instead of Camp. Journeymen shouldn’t be coming in to pitch in that situation.
MW: Brian Wolfe is in Syracuse.
- Shmuelin regards to gambling on baseball: It makes Baby David DeJesus cry, dont do it.
- slobberfaceMike Congrats on the 10,000 posts, don’t thank us its been a pleasure.
- dan M10,000 wow! That is solid.
Congrats Mike and thank you for all of your hard work.
A question about Bob Davidson (the Ump). I have heard (seen on the blog) you say he is the worst ump in the majors and I completely agree. Throughout this season there have been countless calls where he leaves me scratching my head.
Then last night it all came full circle. I am 25 now which makes me 11 when the infamous non-triple play by Kelly Gruber happened. And guess who blew that call????
Unbelievable…
Rance brought it up last night during the broadcast. I am assuming you knew that little tidbit and it has a small part in your opinion of him.
I thought it was pretty interesting
Thats all
Congrats again,
MW: Thanks! But where was the question?
- PatThe season is not over for Tampa but its over for Toronto. So please J.P. its July, make some trades other than with the A’s and try make this team better for 2009. Status quo is not an option. This team is just not good enough.
- brunoMike - my two cents here as to the discussion you and Dan W had in post #25.
Most definitely the biggest “cause” of less homers and long balls is the fact that many a player has stopped using!
However as to “juicing”, steroid use etc. You have to keep in mind that some steroid use only increases the ability to work out harder, longer and with better, quicker results - thus increasing upper body muscle/mass.
If your going to take those steroids without the working out - then nada - nothing happens. Unless of course they are into “performance enhancing” steroid use as to muscle injecting on a regular basis with Anabolic Steroids. The same stuff as is used on thoroughbred race horses.
Those steroids displace body fat to make room for muscle also increase red blood cell count to do the same and for repairing injuries much quicker. However usage also increases aggression (hence the usage for horses)!
Even with steroid use the athlete still has to perform and in baseball it is tough to hit the ball with or without using it - but, wham, when you do make contact with all that extra muscle, upper body strength, the velocity of the pitch combined with displacement “off” the bat it’s gonna accelerate and travel a long, long way.
Simple “case in point” - when the trainer for “Big Brown” was going for the Triple Crown at Belmont - he did not give the horse any Anabolic Steroids for 3 weeks between races to “prove” his horse could win without it - hmm - Big Brown finished dead last in that race!
Anabolic steroid use for race horses is legal - that is until the end of this year. So we will likely see a huge difference as to track times - but healthier horses (thankfully).
I know, it’s not baseball - but the steroids given to horses are the same thing these guys were using (Analbolic that is).
Dependent on your view, the negative/positive results for zero usage will undoubtbly be the same in horse racing next year as is now being seen in MLB.
Thanks.
MW: What research have you done to be able to say that the lack of steroids is “most definitely” the biggest cause of the relative lack of home runs this season? As for Big Brown, I’d say that it’s far more likely that he finished last in the Belmont was because one of his shoes fell off 2/3 of the way through the race than because they stopped juicing him.
- BobMan, we might need Mats Sundin to fix this jays team.
MW: I hear the Jays have offered him a two-year, $20 million deal.
- andrewMike if the Jays field a defensive lineup of
Roland
MacDonald
Hill
Overbay
Wells
Rios
Wilkerson
Barajas (or Zaun)
@ some point this year, will that be the greatest defensive lineup the Jays have ever fielded?
MW: Depending on who Roland and MacDonald are, then probably.
- JasonPost #24 - Dan, Yip I agree this blog of Mikes’ is a great forum for “fans” to express themselves, their thoughts on the Jays and in general how we all think or perceive things or happenings that come along with regard to the Jays or our host here on this blog. Guess we can thank Mr. Wilner for this opportunity to do so.
Thanks Dan for actually reading my comments. We do agree on some things in principal - however I still don’t get the reasoning behind some taking constant shots whenever they get a chance at our host - becoming a contest of who’s right and who’s wrong. This is not defending Mike but rather an observation.
I know, believe me I know only too well that Mike can get us going sometimes and at least from our point of view we agree on this also.
So when you say others perceive this or that or see the positives within others they should be aware of the negatives or at least be told of the negatives by another - hmm - not sure if I would agree completley on that. If someone has a great affinity for another - why would anyone feel compelled to tell that person to think or feel otherwise or just deliver negative news on that other person. Unless of course there is a possibilty of the person being “put in harms way”.
Usually (most) people don’t need another to “enlighten” them when it comes to identifying good from bad or right from wrong. The past is the past Dan.
Case in point - I blasted Mike Wilner pretty good when I first started to comment here - however over time and with tail tucked neatly between my legs I began to see the good side of him, his work, importance of family and the genuine stuff he brings to the table.
By giving him some deserved time and by contributing here and getting to know him via this blog and his work I most humbly apologized for shooting from the hip earlier. Without the need to have anyone else point anything out to me.
I most certainly am with you Dan when it comes to “taking the higher road” e.g. taking shots at people after the phone conversations and on the air is not cool at all. Mike should know this after what happened a while ago on PTS and he was not there to defend himself.
I’ve had some comments left here that Mike has related to as being “just dumb” and “just “ridiculous” etc. I get a chuckle out of em to tell you the truth as I do have the last laugh when I think of the small thought from an educated man that it took to write a response such as those to my comments and/or opinions.
No hard feelings however and I have obtained respect for our host here - albeit in a strange sort of way - I think ha ha!
Lastly here Dan - there is no one answer as to what you and I discussed via this tool! I would have to close by thinking of my dearly departed old Dad who always answered a “yes or no” question with the following question…
“Does a one legged duck swim in a circle”?
Thanks Mike.
p.s. Congrats Mike on the 10k comments - is this for real? Amazing - what does Dan W get for being #10k.
MW: Ummmm, nothing.
- BobMike - The estimate on the opening/closing of the roof at the Rogers’ Centre was around the hundred dollar mark and that was an estimate applying current usage Vs Kw/hr charges from 2005. In 1985 the estimate was still only under a hundred dollars. More efficient drives etc have kept the cost in line for sure. I should have noted the year in the earlier comment!
Thanks
- BobAnother sweep for the Rays against the World Champions…
- MikeI didn’t realize Wolfe was sent down. They gave up on him because of one bad outing? And what about the Carlson thing?
MW: They didn’t give up on him, he has options and they needed to make room for Parrish. I have addressed the Beltre comments several times.
- ShmuelIt absolutely blows me away how the Jays continue to make really bad baseball teams look good.
There is no excuse for losing a series vs. Seattle, let alone 2 in the same season.
MW: Hasn’t happened yet.
- Cammike, where is chiclett? the guy has the highest ops on the team and ALREADY has half the rbis of overbay and rios despite 1/3 the pa. and lind in 10 games has 10 rbis which is more than rios had all of june! as long as we have to watch rios, wells, rolen, overbay for the next 3 years, this team is going to be BAAAAAAD. Inglett should be playing every day until he shows he can’t hit and sit these fat cats.
MW: Chiclett? Joe Inglett is hitting .219/.286/.281 against lefties for his career. Granted, tiny sample size.
- roccoI hate when rance said beltre’s homer was a fluke. it wasn’t. he is 6th in the al in homers for a reason, which is why you don’t leave a lefty in there to face him. blame cito for that. if you look at the top 20 hr hitters in the al about 75% of them are righties which means you need to have a power righty in your bullpen if you expect to succeed. the jays don’t and you can blame JP for that. armando? where the hell is league? Jp should really trade on the lefties to get a power righty. we are going to see a lot of late game losses with cito cuz he always leaves pitchers in too long.
- roccoThose poor no-hope Tampa guys just beat Boston. Again. Sure sucks to be them. In other news, we’re down 4-2 and I’m going to bed. Not that it’s certain we’ll lose. Just that I’m too tired to watch two mediocre teams squeeze out a ‘rubber’ game.
MW: It’s getting pretty old (not just you), all this “Hey, Tampa Bay won” posting. Check the calendar.
- reyesWe are just not good enough Mike. Sometimes you need to grind out a win, come from behind.. we don’t do those things..
I don’t know what to say it makes me cry really. I can’t stand this losing to weak teams, not being able to come from behind.. This team needs a major shake up from top to bottom..
Mike please don’t say Tampa will not be in the playoffs come October. They are unreal right now and give them props for that.
Have a good sleep Mike.
MW: I can’t give the Rays props. I mean, I try, but all anyone wants to talk about is the fact that I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs, and I don’t. They ARE unreal right now, and they deserve full credit for what they’ve been able to do to this point.
- Dave DillmanHow do you feel when you watch this team?
MW: Achy.
- Camjays are 0-33 when behind after 7 innnings? good god mike has any team gone 0 for the season? britney spears has a better chance at a comeback than these sad sack jays
MW: I think the Jays will get a comeback win before Britney does. Just a hunch.
- roccoMy apologies. I didn’t read the other comments, so I hadn’t seen your remarks about Beltre.
MW: S’ok. Lots of questions get answered in the upper comments, but you never know when they’re going to show up.
- ShmuelMike, Mike, Mike . . . Like many Jay fans I have been SO frustrated with this team the last 3 seasons, but this one in particular because for the most part we have been healthy. And this would`ve been a fantastic year to take advantage of the parity in the A.L. Yet the Jays continue to flounder at the bottom, while Tampa Bay keeps winning, and Boston is still way ahead of the Jays even though Ortiz has been out for a lengthy period and Schilling is done. Why Mike?? Why????? Why can`t these guys score any runs in the 8th or 9th inning when the game is tied or they are behind?? Have they ever won a game when tied or behind in the 8th or 9th this season?? I don`t they have. Love the pitching, love the Defence. But Good God the hitting. Is it a lack of confidence?? Are they too accustomed to losing when they are behind or tied after the 7th? Do they lack mental toughness? Are they not up on the dugout steps with the rally hats on while cheering eachother on - firing eachother up?? Yelling “This game isn`t over boys!!! Let`s not let this win get away!” What is it Mike???
I feel bad for J.P. cuz I thought this team would hit too, and I was excited with most of his trades and signings. He must be throwing his hands up in the air in disgust. I am. I hope JP or whoever the GM is after the season shakes this batting lineup up just for the sake of shaking it up. I don`t know why this team isn`t above 500 by 10 games, cuz they should be. Sorry for novel of a Rant - but man - I want to be proud of this team - and I`m just so disappointed.
MW: It’s been an incredibly disappointing season.
- RyanHey Mike!
You might not agree, but its time to start cleaning house! Losing 2 out of 3 to Seattle and L.A. up next, one whould think its not getting easier. You got to start bringing in your younger players from the farm and get them the experince for next year! Adam Lind is a start! Bring up who ever is doing good down there and see what they can do! Look at Marcum
and McGowan, started doing good once they got the chance. even if some of the younger guy’s dont do that well, atleast you know what you have going into next season and that might help when it comes free aggents in the off season.
I also herd you say tonight that, if they were if NL west, they would be a 1 and half out. Reality is their not(I wish they were maybe there might be a few more banner s at the Rogers center), They’re in the AL east, witch is the tuffest in the leauge, and there not gonna win without having hitting and pitching in the same season. It seems like for the last 6 or 7 season that s case, either they have hitting and there missing pitching or the other way around!
I hate to say it, but its time to clean house starting from the front office! Look at all the other team s in Toronto, there finnally starting to do it the right way hiring the right GM. JP had his chance, I think he tried but, he has not dilevered! I just wanna see my favorite baseball team go back to the playoffs!
Thank You!
MW: See above.
- HardeepMike,
I know it is a different space/time continuum and all that but: Does the situation with Thomas become untenable if Cito is manager at the time?
I have no idea but your comments brought the question to my mind.
MW: I have no idea either. Maybe the situation doesn’t become untenable because Cito would have been willing to keep running Thomas out there every day even though he wasn’t doing a thing offensively. Then again, maybe Cito wouldn’t have kept him in the line-up every day.
- Christopher Taylormike, I want to show you that the hitters are actually playing normally take a look at rios career. his numbers are actually HIGHER than 2004 and 2005. he had 2 good years 2006 and 2007 but that does not make a career. so 2 bad years and 2 good years and now another bad year so you can’t say the 2 good years are the real alex rios. he is hitting 9 points below career avg, 5 points below career obp. only slug is a big drop. so you can’t say he is this great hitter. it’s not like he is richie sexson who has a proven career. rios could be mediocre the rest of his career.
MW: Seriously? Richie Sexson?
- roccoPythagorean expectation? Did you actually pull that tonight? Did you pull that saying that the Jays are the (and I quote) the “unluckiest team in baseball”?????????????? I wish there was a stat like that for my poker nights, I’d be the most unluckiest player ever but would be great if the river hit…and hey, the Leafs….there MUST be a formula for excuses there. Sometimes it’s best to trust your eyes no?
Stop. Stop. Stop. Stop. I like you. You’re good, but you’re getting too sly.
MW: Sly? Hey, call it what you want, but truth is truth. For example, the Blue Jays have scored 354 runs this season and allowed 327. They’re 41-45. The Angels have scored fewer runs (353) and allowed more (341) - and yet they’re 51-34. According to their run differential, the Jays should be about 46-40.
- Ryanthis is a typical normal year for rios, get used to it for the next 6 years. mike I was wondering when JP gets fired will you get fired too since you are both joined at the hip? have you considered off season surgery?
MW: Yeah, I should have asked for that same contract extension that J.P. got. How is this a typical normal year for Rios? He’s 11 points below his career average, six points below his career obp and 60 points below his career slugging coming into this season.
- roccoJP missing jays talk makes me wonder if something is up. Or maybe he’s tired of facing the critics. Losing a series to Seattle is not a good sign for a team trying to look like a contender. I wonder how short a rope JP is on, does he have until the allstar break? I am not worried about JP’s job loss the guy will be hired by someone else maybe not as a GM. I actually wouldn’t mind him as a assistant GM here, we just need a change. I just think we need a fresh look at this teams make up. Whats eating me up this year is the Frank Thomas thing. This guy signs a huge contract and you let him walk away from it. I would of made him ride the pine, I think that sent a bad message to rest of the team. I am suprised Eckstien hasn’t pulled the same thing Thomas did.
MW: Eckstein and Thomas are very different people. What would have been the point of the Jays making Thomas take up a spot on the bench all season?
- jasonmike i called the show in april and we debated whether thomas had been a timely hitter for the jays (you refuting my point that he had not been)
now i see on yesterdays blog you responded to someone saying that thomas hadn’t done anything offensively at all this year
is this yet another example of you selling out a player after he’s on the team but not ripping him when he is on the team
i’m not spewing hate, i enjoy your show and listen nitely.
(even this week, in the early mornings)
MW: Glad to hear it. Yes, it’s another case of me supporting a player unconditionally when he’s on the Jays and then ripping him the second he’s out the door. It’s what I do. Sorry - this is really getting to me. Outside a four-game stretch in the season’s second week, Thomas hadn’t done a thing offensively for the Jays. Did you call the show inside that four-game stretch, or just before (too early to write off a season) or just after (hadn’t had long enough to settle into the “not done anything” mode)?
- joshand other then mentioning richie sexson i agree with comment 84
- joshhe made strong points
Why pay someone to not fulfill their contract? By making him(thomas) sit he either agrees to split DH with Stairs or quits. It seems when players dictate to management how things will go is when management loses control over the team. To me this was as bad a deal as the Zito one, except Zito is still a giant and has a chance to redeem himself. Basically we paid Thomas 20 mil for one season.
MW: You should look again at the Zito deal.
- jasoni called after the four game stretch and pointed out that other than the two homeruns he hit during that stretch he had not been clutch
you said well thomas is a hall of famer,
i said well as a blue jays he doesnt hit in big situations only when were alot of runs usually or at the end of the year when were way outta the playoffs, you said you had to check the numbers
i said check them
you said there was no time ( i was the last caller of the night)
do u remember this call?
also who is better than oakland athletics, or the team with wilner at short and neil diamond at second
MW: I don’t remember the call, but it sounds like it could have happened. Thomas did most of his damage over the last 2/3 of the season last year.
- joshsorry the oakland atheltics
MW: Really? You want to correct your correct spelling to a mistake?
- josh