MW: Yes, you were.

Not sure what I was thinking of in the opponents winning % and opponents opponents winning %, but I have a feeling it might be something that’s used for football, not baseball. Or, I might have just made it up completely, not sure.

Thanks to Steve for giving the proper answer and letting me waste a good 30 minutes researching Pythagenport and Pythagenpat.

I was pretty drunk when I posted that, and took it to mean it could never happen. You’re right in that it can’t be done this year.

“As for the Rays, would you really rather have a team lose at least 90 games 10 years in a row and then give you a thrill for four months before falling out of the race?”

This is pretty unfair since you’re choosing to include the past 10 years of results but not factor in the expected performance over the next 10 years.

And yes, OPS+ adjusts for park effects.

To sum up, Pythagenport adjusts for your opponents winning %, and your opponents opponents winning %.

Now, I’m not sure exactly what this says about Roy Halladay, but here are his BABIP’s from 2002 on:

.289
.285
.311
.264
.277
.301
.286

MW: I don’t think it’s realistically possible to clinch a playoff spot in July. You’d have to have a 55-game lead (or so) on the 5th-best team in the league. Even if every team but you loses all its interleague games, chances are that you’re going to have at least three .500 teams. Let’s say that through 110 games, the 5th-best team in the league is 50-60, a stretch to be sure – you would have to be 106-4 to have clinched a playoff spot.
The Rays’ expected performance going forward is very good, but it’s still hypothetical. I should have added “give you a thrill for four months and look like they’ll be really good the next few seasons.”

Surely that’s one of those joke phrases like ‘inflatable dartboard’ or ‘underwater hairdryer’?

This was only Downs’ 2nd blown save. He hadn’t given up a run in over 2 months. If there is such a thing as clutch, Scott Downs is it. He’s basically been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. What the hell isn’t to like about him?

W3, L3 (“Third-order wins”): Pythagenport wins and losses, based on AEQR and
AEQRA.

AEQR, AEQRA: EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the
quality of their opponent’s pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR,
the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting.

———–
So Tampa has faced better than average pitching and better than average hitting, and has taken that into account for their 3rd order wins record. Every statistic around suggests this team is a very good one.

MW: Hard not to be when the team has the best record in baseball. But thanks for the info!

And I’m not mistaken, their PECOTA projections had them winning 85+ games this year.

A fluke? Certainly not.

Will they decline? At this point, it’s not very likely at all.

MW: You have to explain Pythagenport 3rd order wins to me. They’re on pace to win 99, which is a lot more than 85+.