2:10 AM Eastern
Short post today, because it’s really late and because what can you really say about this game? Roy Halladay is awesome. Plain and simple. Just awesome.
He dominated the Mariners today, despite an exceedingly low BABIP (.154). Sometimes, like Jair Jurrjens on Friday night, the pitcher is that good. Weak ground balls and pop-ups, but some great defence when it was needed from all four of the infielders that finished the game (sorry, Eck).
Halladay was only in trouble once, when two soft liners fell in in left field with one out in the 7th, putting Mariners on first and third. He got out of it by striking out rookie Jeff Clement looking for the THIRD time of the night (he was picked ahead of Troy Tulowitzki too, by the way), and then getting Kenji Johjima on a grounder.
Great move by Cito Gaston to put John McDonald in for defense to start the 8th inning, even with the shortstop spot due up second in the 9th. McDonald made a terrific play on a bad hop grounder by Willie Bloomquist leading off the frame. I’m not sure how much Eckstein’s errant throw on a routine grounder by Ichiro Suzuki in the 6th had to do with the early hook, but that error was particularly brutal. As mentioned in yesterday’s comments section, there are no complaints about Eckstein’s bat right now, though. Since coming back from the disabled list, he’s hitting .329/.440/.411.
Brad Wilkerson made a major baserunning error in the 9th, though it didn’t wind up costing the Jays anything. He took off on McDonald’s fake-bunt-pull-back fly ball to left field, and was at second base when the ball was caught. Even if Wilkerson was expecting McDonald to bunt, he’s got to pick that ball up and get back to first.
The Blue Jays finished June 10-16, basically the same as their 11-17 April. They can’t afford another bad month if they want to get back into the race, very obviously.
It seems as though Cito Gaston is getting a lot of the credit for turning the team around (they’ve won six of eight) but take a look, not much has changed. They had their little honeymoon, with the 14, seven and nine-run games in the space of a week, but in three of their last four games, the Jays have scored a grand total of three runs, despite winning two. They’re 1-for-their-last-23 with runners in scoring position, although they’ve won both games. You’re not going to lose when you don’t give up any runs, and I really don’t think that Gaston’s superiority over John Gibbons inspired Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett and friends to throw back-to-back shutouts.
Eventually, these bats will come around, and when they do - this team is going to be very, very good. One hopes it doesn’t happen too late for it to matter.
Last thing before I go, since this is really starting to get to me. With every win they get, the Tampa Bay Rays do not convince me that they’re better than I think they are. Therefore, every time they win a game, please stop asking if I recognize their greatness. I don’t think they’ll be there at the end. And being in first place on July first is swell, but it doesn’t count. The season is 162 games long - not 60, not 70, not 82, not 100. Until a playoff spot can be clinched in July, I’m not changing my mind on the Rays. And I’m not wrong, either, not until they’re a factor in the race late in the season. Remember the Florida Marlins of Joe Girardi. Not for real. A good team, but not good enough, and yet on September 14th, 2005, they held the wild card. They finished six games out.
Here’s this morning’s edition of the late-night JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
Comments are encouraged, as always, and Happy 141st, Canada!
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You don’t dominate despite a low BABIP - it’s cuz of it.
MW: So then a pitcher can’t be dominant without being extremely lucky?
- AriI love this stat….Roy Halladay has six complete games this season. This is more CGs than any other TEAM in baseball except Cleveland, who have six of their own. In conclusion, Roy is awesome.
MW: Indeed.
- Alex PK I’m glad you agreed to help. So my first question is how do i find the 2nd derivative of (Tan^4x^2/ln(sec^2x))?
MW: I wish you luck.
- JerryAll the jays need is to keep giving up zero runs a game and the banjo hitting wont be an issue. Seriously, Im glad u pointed out that the hitting hasnt been so great since Cito and crew came on board aside from a couple outlier games. Maybe the previous regime wasnt to blame for the lackluster clutch hitting???? DUH (its the hitters folks)
were voodoo Joe and Lind held out due to a knuckeballer being on the mound or due to defense?
regarding the future..i think ultimately the “power” bat at first the jays are seeking will be Travis Snider. With Lind, Wells and Rios etched into the outfield landscape, Snider is headed to the three spot cerca 2010. you are gonna see campbell at 2b and..waite for it..hill at shortstop in 2010 as well. arencibia will be here as well. thats the year when they will truly contend.
MW: It’s a lot to ask for Snider, Arencibia and Campbell to step in and 2010 and be contributors to a playoff team in their rookie seasons. Voodoo Joe and Lind were held out of the line-up because of Dickey’s massive disparity in opponents’ batting average (.204 vs LH, .357 vs RH).
- sammy“Until a playoff spot can be clinched in July, I’m not changing my mind on the Rays.”
So you’re going to change it now?
MW: Can a playoff spot now be clinched in July?
- Dan WWe are so lucky. I believe he is the best pro athlete EVER to grace the Toronto sports scene. We are so spoiled.
MW: I don’t know, we’ve had some pretty exceptional pro athletes here. In all sports.
- Paul OHi Mike,
Roy Halladay is just very very special. We are so lucky to have him and I hope he sticks around for his entire career. I just hope we can get in the playoffs for him sometime. Dave Stieb was my favourite player growing up and at the time I didn’t realise he had the reputation for being a p***k, but who cares, he was fantastic as well. I always felt sad that his arm broke down during the season we first got to the World Series. Hate to see that happen to Halladay.
My question for you is: do you think he would ever leave the Jays of his own volition?
MW: Maybe.
- Oz RobHi Mike,
I understand why you feel that Tampa will likely fade down the stretch. While I do not think they will win the division and probably not even the wild card, I do not easily dismiss them. They have a great advantage over most other teams in the stretch drive; their minor league system.
The Rays minors are ranked the tops in MLB by Baseball America (and by a wide margin). While other teams will be dealing for arms, Tampa can call up top 10 pitching prospects David Price or Wade Davis, and solid pitching prospect Jeff Niemann. Price’s talent is so great that he could contribute immediately to the rotation and Davis and Niemann would likely add depth to the bullpen. In addition, they have the top ranked shortstop prospect in the upper minor league levels from last season by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus in Reid Brignac who is currently leading the International League in doubles.
Moreover, their lower minors are stocked with top 100 prospect talent with players such as Jeremy Hellickson, Jake Mcgee(although he just had TJ surgery), Desmond Jennings, and Tim Beckham (who would have to be a player to be named later due to the fact that he was just drafted) and would allow them to outbid other teams at the trade deadline if they have a player they intend to target.
MW: You’re correct, the Rays have a tremendous advantage in making deadline deals to improve because their minor-league system is so good. I don’t agree, though, that guys like Price, Niemann, etc. can be expected to be difference-makers this year. No matter how talented, young players often fall flat in their first exposure to the major leagues.
- Dave JI am not going to slam Jamie Campbell on your site. He does a good gob. I just think you would do a GREAT job. Enough about that. A quick question. In your insightful opinion, are the Jays going to reset the rotation after the all-star break? It’s been messier than John Gibbons’ breakfast since AJ’s relief appearance way back in a time when I still had some hope.
Thanks for the calm in a storm of ship-jumpers.
MW: John Gibbons eats a messy breakfast? I think that after the break, the rotation will likely be Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Litsch/Marcum, owing to Marcum’s injury.
- SpiderSilvaoh, and a happy Canada Day to everyone back home from Australia. Geez what I wouldn’t give for a care package of Tim Horton’s donuts, some suicide chicken wings, a pint of Creemore, and a Jays game on TV. Actually, what I really would love is to hear Tom Cheek’s voice on the radio again. I think I’m getting sentimental here…
Jays talk and this blog are fantastic and all the Canadian accents make me homesick. Never change folks!
- Oz RobI am convinced that the Rays are for real. I hope you’re right and they burn out towards the end and that all the wins that theyre raking up right now are actually going to benefit toronto. 1 for 23 with RISP? Unreal how they are 2 and O after that, but when you get two masterful performances out of your pitching staff, thats what happens. Lets hope the bats can break out tonight against the M’s and the streak can be pushed up to four. If we can have a 6-1 or 5-2 week, I’d be a happy camper.
- DaveBack to McPherson. The Marlins will not ask for a lot in return because they have no room for him in the majors and i’m pretty sure his contract is up at the end of the year.
I didnt get the Clement being selected before Tulowitski comment. Clement is the top catching prospect in baseball and will eventually become a better hitter than Tulo. And that didnt make me feel less frustrated with Romero.
MW: Glad you have such confidence in Clement. McPherson is on the 40-man roster, and is therefore arbitration eligible, and even though his contract is up after this season, he’s still under the control of the Marlins for at least another two years. They’re not going to give him away.
- AnonymousEnough with the John Gibbons apologist act. He was a mediocre manager and he’s gone, get over it.
And regarding the Clement comment, do you think there’s a team in baseball that would rather have Ricky Romero than Clement right now? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
MW: We shall see. It’s tough to be a complete bust at 23.
- ScottWhy has Joe Inglett sat two straight games after he finished with the 3rd best batting avg for the month of June hitting .377? I mean if runs are at a premium and someone is hitting close to .400, should they not have a guy like that in the lineup on an everyday basis? I know hes a triple a’er most of the time, but ride the hot bat why you can, no?
MW: He sat Sunday because they faced a lefty, and he sat yesterday because of Dickey’s splits.
- DaveGabe Gross & Eric Hinske = Co-World Series MVPs
MW: If you’re even a tiny bit serious, I’ll take that action.
- slobberfaceIt’s the shirt!
I attend about 16 home games a year. Last year, againts Baltimore, I bought a Jay shirt at the Rogers centre to keep warm (it was bloody cold that day). Since then, anytime I wore the shirt, the Jays had won ;-) (12-0 record). I stopped wearing the shirt a couple of times this year when we went to the game and the jays lost, badly and when we saw the jays agaisnt the Braves last week, I went back to my lucky shirt and yes, they won.
Maybe I should write to Godfrey and ask for free season tickets behind the plate ;-) . Whadaya think Mike?
MW: Sounds good to me.
- francisJust a small complaint against MLB. It is Canada Day and the Jays are on the road playing a very late game. Why dosen’t the league recognize our different holidays in Canada and take advantage of them by having the Jays play at home in the afternoon. Ticket sales would be great!
MW: I’m with you.
- Colin“It seems as though Cito Gaston is getting a lot of the credit for turning the team around (they’ve won six of eight) but take a look, not much has changed.”
However the fact remains that, runs or not, since Cito Gaston took over we have won more than we have lost. Too small a sample size to say he has done a better job than Gibbons this season. However over the long haul as a Blue Jays manager he did a much better job than Gibbons. So I think he’s a better manager and I’m glad we have him back.
It seems to me that this last post of yours embedded two of your most firmly-held and often iterated opinions.
(1) John Gibbons was a great manager who got stuck with an under-performing team.
(2) The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t nearly as good as they appear to be and will be dead in the water at the end of the season.
To which I would respond:
(1) Gibbons got stuck with the under-performing team that his pal Ricciardi stuck him with. They lost in April, won in May, lost in June, and it didn’t seem to me that during that time Gibbons made any impression on them at all. Gaston and his team of successful ex-retired coaches seem to be more engaged with the players.
(2) The Rays may or may not be there at the end of the season, but as of right now they sure are fun for their fans to watch. I’d take a squibby team that burns out in September over this bunch of failure-to-launchers. The Rays fans have hope. And just maybe the Rays are better off for having lost all those seasons. They got great draft picks. We couldn’t even profit by our mediocrity, so we picked lower than they did.
I watched the game yesterday with a sinking heart, because this team should be right up there, it’s got the best pitching and it’s got terrific defense. But just like always, the Blue Jays will find a way to lose, and this year’s choice is a lousy offense.
MW: Never once have I said that John Gibbons was a great manager, but he was fine. The operative word that you’re using is “seem” - it seems that Gaston and his crew are more engaged with the players because they have won six of eight. It seemed as though Gibbons had turned the ship around in May when they won 14 of 18. As for the Rays, would you really rather have a team lose at least 90 games 10 years in a row and then give you a thrill for four months before falling out of the race?
- reyesIt’s great that the Jays are getting those pitching performances BUT they also need to shore up RISP and their offense. This year it’s not enough to win with pitching and defense in the AL because there are other teams like the White Sox and Rays that are on top by getting good starting pitching and bashing the ball. The Tigers are resurgent because they are finally getting decent starting pitching AND their much vaunted offense has awaken from their slumber. Under the current environment, it would be very hard to say that the Jays have a chance to compete because of the lack of offense. There are simply no lethal or feared hitters on the Jays and that has come back to bite them in the month of June. To be in the mix, a team cannot leave a small army of people on base every game. That list includes the Yankees BTW……..
Are the Rays for real? Look Girardi’s Marlins were in a much weaker NL East and the Rays are in the AL East with those two powerhouses ,the Yanks and Red Sox. Those two teams have been making the playoffs and winning World Series for the last decade plus and the Rays still have won 50 games and are in first place. From a Jays’ perspective, the Jays were supposed to be in the playoff mix but they are 10 games behind the Rays. Obviously, the season is not over yet BUT the Rays cannot be discounted because the AL East is not the Junior Varsity , and the Rays are in first place and can beat the best teams in their division, so they are a contender.
MW: It’s July first.
- jayPS
Mike could you remove the opening ‘however’ from that first sentence? Too many howevers!
MW: Nope.
- reyesMike,
Another stellar game from your favourite Jay, 1 single, 1 BB and 1 failure to pick up the rbi with a runner in scoring position and 2-outs.
I love your faith in the regression to the mean….but thats not always the case with everything.
p.s. - victorino - obp - .346
Rollins - -.340 obp over the last 3 years.
MW: I’ll take a single and a walk from a hitter every game and be thrilled. And yes, sadly, Lyle Overbay was the only Blue Jay who failed to cash a runner in scoring position over the last two games. And thanks for pointing out Victorino’s and Rollins’ career on-base numbers. Just drives my point farther home.
- JWHi Mike - I think your argument that Cito deserves none of the credit for the past 2 wins overlooks some things.
These games - the subtle moves Gaston has made, including the discipline not to over-manage and mess things up, have contributed greatly to the victories.
For the subtle moves: visiting AJ on the mound, explaining and calling for the strategy to intentionally walk Texiera and how to pitch to McCann - paid off, in a one-run game, who knows how else that might have turned out, pitching to Texiera? Instilling an attitude of aggressiveness: Leyva waving in Scutaro from first, trickles down from the manager - without that, we might still be playing yesterday’s game. As for last night’s game, you mention yourself: inserting McDonald into the game was sublime and paid off.
And how about the discipline to leave these guys in and not being beholden to a 100-pitch watermark, for not overmanaging the bullpen: obsessing over limited stats / lefty-righty matchups. Remember Tosca? “Mark Texiera is 0 for 2 lifetime against Kerry Ligtenberg, therefore Ligtenberg is the one to pitch to Texiera.”
There were very slim margins of victory in these last 2 games - and plenty of chances to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You have to give some credit to the manager who has the experience and even-keel approach to let the game come to the best result.
MW: You can pick things like that out of every win and every loss. I choose to look at the fact that the pitchers didn’t allow a run over the last two games, and had that happened under John Gibbons, the Jays would have won every time, too.
- TravisHey Mike, I don’t see the Rays making the playoff’s either, but, a (finally) competitive Tampa Bay team is good for baseball. Division Pennants - and I guess “Wild Cardnants” - are indeed not won in the first half, but the Rays are giving their fans that one thing that all fans want: Hope. And good for them, it’s about time.
The season is indeed a marathon, and our Jays are not out of it by any means - like you, I don’t think Cito sprinkled any pixie dust on the bats, but the coaching overhaul (collosally unfair to Gibby) and subsequent players performances (about bloody time, as well), at least gives us hope. Thanks Mike,
Tim
Guelph
MW: I don’t know about the subsequent players performances - this team still can’t score with any consistency.
- Tim CRaptors a distant 5th in Toronto? Completely disagree here. In my age group 18-24, it’s arguably the number one sport. Granted that older people like hockey and baseball better but there’s no way TFC is more popular than Raptors in Toronto. Compared to other soccer leagues in the world, MLS is gutter league. Garbage quality at best. I know they sell out the BMO field but those are soccer-starved people from European countries. MLS>NBA, you’ve gotta be kidding me!
MW: Who said anything about MLS being better than the NBA?
- Beburg aka The relief pitcherHi Mike - Happy Canada Day to you and all your fans on this blog.
What a skillful performance last night!
How lucky are we to have not just a pitcher, but a man, like Halladay on the team. How many teams have a pitcher like him who is not just a shutdown ace, but a man that serves as a role model to kids, and also inspires the adults. I cannot think of a more humble and graceful athlete. Rooting for Halladay is a very different experience from rooting for any other athlete. I don’t know if it’s just me, but it is an intense and emotional experience to watch him pitch. I’ve chatted with my older NY friends about this and they’ve said they’ve felt the same way when they watched Mantle, and today … Jeter. But not Alex Rodriguez. Some athletes just inspire you and invite themselves into your home and family it seems.
Two points to make on the theme of pitching -
1. All-Star - I think Doc just nailed his spot on the All-Star roster. And, any baseball fan should know if Marcum were healthy, he was also deserving. But, why are folks not giving Scott Downs any recognition for his brilliant season? Didn’t Paul Quantrill once make the All-Star team for the Blue Jays? I think Downs belongs on the All-Star team. Your thoughts?
2. I like AJ. Not anywhere close as much as Doc. But I think he’s a very good pitcher. He’s not one that can be consistent over 6 months, but he can have a ridiculously hot phase for 10-15 starts before we takes his annual break on the DL. He’s done that before at the end of the 06 season, and last year when Doc went down around this time last year. But I admire him not for those phases … but more for him being who he is and not trying to be anyone else. He “keeps it real” so to speak. He could very well look at Doc and try to be like him, or even get jealous and want to have the mantle of being the team’s best pitcher. But not so … he’s comfortable in his skin, and I think that is a good thing. I think all Raptor fans remember a guy named Tracy McGrady who wanted to be “The Man” and wasn’t comfortable in being the second guy. But being the second guy could have made Toronto a championship contender. I think we need to appreciate AJ for who is. We’ll miss him next year, whether some fans will admit it or not. He’s had some bad luck with blown saves in 06 and not enough run support last year. He’s not “just a .500 pitcher”. On a team like the Red Sox, he might be a 15-18 win pitcher!
Oh, and one more point … what great defense from Overbay! I think it’s pretty hard to win those 1-0, 2-0 games without that kind of quality D.
Your thoughts on Downs?
MW: I think a strong case could be made for Downs to be on the all-star team, but I doubt very much he’ll make it. The year Quantrill was there, wasn’t he the only Blue Jay?
- T from NYWhy can’t they afford another bad month if they want to get back into the race? It’s not even the All Star break yet so therefore it’s still early. As you just stated above, “the season is 162 games long - not 60, not 70, not 82, not 100″ which means that even after another bad month there would be 50 games or so left to be great. No need to worry until about September 15th and then make a major winning run to finish the season.
MW: I see what you’re trying to do here, but please. Reductio ad absurdum, or something.
- Peter B.I think Cito’s brought stability and some relaxation to the Jays. Yes, they’re back to their old tricks not being able to cash in RISP, but it looks like the team’s more relaxed.
John MacDonald.. I mean.. WOW. Can this guy be any more of an animal at short? It seems every time he gets put in I hear some like this “What an outstanding play by John MacDonald!”
Here’s a question for you:
I was thinking about this last night as the broadcasters were talking about Roy on sportsnet during the game.
They said that Roy should be 12-3 rather than 9-6 because of the lack of run support in some well pitched games that ultimately were losses.
So, here’s my question: If a batter relies solely on himself for his batting average and that’s how a batter is measured, they why aren’t pitchers measured more on ERA versus win-loss record?
I mean, if a pitcher has 20 wins in a season, with an ERA of 6, how good is he really? Versus a pitcher that wins 15 games (with an ERA of 2.5) and plays for a team that averages 3 runs a game?
But when they vote for the Cy Young award, it just seems that win-loss weighs a lot more.
MW: Without getting into the notion of batting average or ERA as true indicators, you’re right that win-loss matters too much and really is no indicator at all of what a pitcher is doing. See about a thousand previous posts for more on that.
- AngeloMike
A couple of comments:
1. Once again, the Jays do not get to play at home on Canada. Though playing in Seattle is the next best thing, judging from all the cheering last night.
2. The Rays remind me of the 1983 and 1984 Blue Jays in that they were both young and talented teams, likely playing a little over their head. I see the Rays fading in August when the games start really counting. The Rays have the advantage in that there are no Randy Moffat’s, Joey McLaughlin, Roy Lee Jackson’s or Dave Geisels in their bullpen.
MW: Well, there are Gary Glover, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell.
- SteveMike:
Ragarding the draft; I think Rick did an excellent job in yesterday’s post of outlining what a lot of fans think about JP’s drafting record compared to other teams. I can’t count the number of times that you’ve said that the draft is mostly luck and you never know who is going to turn into something and basically you do the best you can and hope you find 1 or 2 players in a year.
Suddenly when it comes to Tampa, you say that they have so many players because they have been so bad in the past years and drafted higher than Toronto. So my question
is at what point in the first round is the cutoff between getting can’t miss excellent prospects and just pure luck and crossing your fingers? Obviously it’s somewhere between the #1 selection and wherever the Jays pick. Secondly, other teams have had many losing seasons (Kansas City, Baltimore, Texas and Pittsburgh come to mind) who would have drafted higher than Toronto and yet they don’t seem to be progressing at the same rate that Tampa is. Does that mean that Tampa has just been super lucky with their picks because I know you don’t want to credit the GM at all for something like that.
Also, you were quick to discredit the picks of Boston by saying that they pay above slot and the Jays don’t. Seeing as I don’t understand ths slot thing at all … could you please point out which of those players that Boston drafted were above slot guys that the Jays would never have gone for?
Finally, I know it’s the halfway point and so you’re not giving anything to anyone but let’s assume that Tampa were to make it into the playoffs (as I think they’re better than you give them credit for) Don’t you think that fans would prefer to see some losing seasons but be building towards a good young core and a championship calibre team rather than watching a team that hovers around .500 and ends up way back of a playoff spot in the end year after year as the Jays have been doing for 15 years now?
MW: I think that if the Blue Jays would have had ten consecutive seasons of at least 90 losses, we never would have had a chance to see a resurgence. And none of those teams that you mentioned above have been as consistently awful as the D-Rays were.
- Peter B.Hey Mike,
Props on the late night (or early morning) bloggage. I agree with you that these last eight games are just a case of “same team, different manager.” I don’t believe that this offence has totally turned it around, but I am anticipating the series (it’ll take more than a game) when the bats will wake up.
I have a question about coaching. Do the “new” first and third base coaches have much input or give much direction/instruction to the players, or are these two coaches just relayers of signs/traffic cops for the guys on the basepaths? Everyone is singing the praises of Gaston and Tennis. Although these praises are most likely knee jerk reactions, should the base coaches be lumped into the “new” regime?
Have a great Canada Day!
MW: Both Nick Leyva and Dwayne Murphy work with the players all the time, on and off the field. Every coach is a facilitator of work, before, during and after batting practice, and instruction is available to those who want it. Didn’t the bats wake up in the series against the Reds? They scored 26 runs in three games.
- KyleMIke,
Any idea why we haven’t seen Lind in a while?
MW: See above.
- JWMike,
Great game against Seattle last night. Roy Halladay pitched a jem. One thing. Right when someone goes onto the fan 590 homepage it has things about headlines and featured stories. Under the feature story the number one feature story is the game against Seattle last night. Whoever wrote that said they played against Baltimore and beat them 2-0 and they didn’t say Seattle. I don’t know if you can fix that but I thought I should point it out. Thanks
MW: Thanks for pointing that out. I can’t do anything about that, but K-Rod is on the case.
- StevenShould we read anything into Lind having 2 games off in a row or did Cito not want him facing the Knuckleball?
MW: See above.
- MarkHi Mike - Quick “shutout” trivia for you and the fans on this blog.
Can you name the 5 active pitchers who have thrown 5 or more shutouts in one season?
Answers below …
1. Randy Johnson
2. Tom Glavine
3. Greg Maddux
4. AJ Burnett
5. Dontrelle Willis
Others to do it in the 90’s and beyond - Clemens, Wells, Cone and Carlos Perez of the Expos(!!!)
- T from NYWhat’s up with Lind? I thought he was sitting Sunday because of the lefty, and yesterday because Dickey has always had big reverse platoon splits, but I heard he fouled a ball off his foot on Saturday and that’s why he wasn’t in there.
You mentioned retrosheet last night again, but I’m just here to tell you that baseballreference is better.
MW: Baseball Reference is spectacular as well. Cito talked about the reverse platoon splits.
- Flaming MoeHi Mike,
Spectacular.I have used this word 3 times to desribe a pitching performance by a bluejay pitcher in the past week.For all the people who think the Jays have no shot at a playoff spot I give you the pitching staff.It is hard to imagine they pitch like this all the time but 3 out of 5 times is not unreasonable if you look at how they have pitched so far this season.It will be tough but we still have a shot.It was intersesting the comment Rance made about Overbay and how pitchers are pitching him away.I’ve noticed this all year long.What is surprising is that Overbay seems to want to pull the ball more than he has in the past.Hopefully he can get himself straight because we need his bat to get hot.Was dissapointed in Rios at bat in the 7th I think when he struck out with a runner on third.He looked absolutely lost.Anyway hope that guy who said Doc is looking hitable saw the game.
mario
Go Jays!!!
MW: I don’t want to burst your bubble, but getting this kind of pitching three out of every five days is, in fact, unreasonable.
- marioHi Mike…. I was never a Cito backer. Back in Cito’s time (92-93)he had a great team of 9 good players and in blowout games I can never understand why he never uses his bench. How in the world can you expect a bench player to help out when he hardly ever gets into a game.
Last night I hope Cito woke up. I caught the last part of the Seattle game. I like Eckstien as a hitter, but do you shudder like I do everytime you see Eckstien make a throw to 1st base. When you have a guy like MacDonald sitting on the bench why in the world does this guy never see the field late in close games. If your bringing in your closer why would you not have MacDonald in for there for defensive purposes. Might explain why MacDoanld made that error in the extra inning game in Pittsburg a week or so ago…..hopefully Cito will wake up and use him more often late in games like they use Downs.
Mark Feeley
MW: McDonald has played late-inning defense in every game in which the Jays have held a slim lead late under Cito. He also did under Gibby once the middle of May hit and he realized that he had no choice.
- Mark FeeleyMike,
What you THINK of Tampa Bay doesn’t matter. They’re gaining alot of respect all across North America except from you of course. The team is showing alot of character, a couple of bench clearing brawls, scrap with catcher/ pitcher, come from behind wins. Everytime they beat The Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Tigers the confidence grows. This team is young talented and only going to get better. You don’t know how to give credit when credit is do, unless it’s yourself of course. What counts is being last on July first(right)???? ODDS are in favour of Tampa not Toronto. When has any of your predictions come true? Practically none as usual…. Every sports network ESPN, SI, Fox and so on are wrong but your right. It’s all about the odds now.
MW: What on Earth are you talking about?
- brunoHi Mike
I just read an article on ESPN.com about how Paul Godfrey might be stepping down as president. Here’s the quote from the article.
“…Ricciardi’s job could be in jeopardy, especially with industry sources reporting that Godfrey will soon leave his post as team president. ”
Did I miss something?
Thanks Mike
MW: If you did, I did too, though there were rumours as far back as last winter that Godfrey might be replaced as team prez.
- AdamMike - Happy Canada Day. One of my favourite Canada Days was when Roger Clemens was pitching for the Jays and the team wore red jerseys with Canada on the back where the players names usually are. The Jays should do something like that every year.
Do you think Larry Walker is a Hall of Famer?
MW: I’d put Larry Walker in the Hall of Fame, because he was awesome, but he won’t get in.
- DanielHello There Mike,
Forgive me if this has already been asked/answered in recent comments, but I’ve been slacking on my reading lately. Anyway, what’s your thoughts on giving John Parrish another start?
I know the original plan was to spot start him, then let him linger out in the pen until his next needed start. But I say play the hot hand again and see if he can replicate his 1st start. My reasoning is two-fold; 1) Too many times we’ve seen guys on 7 or 8 days between starts be out of whack a bit and not quite as sharp and 2) Knowing the history of Jays’ starters with forearm strains over the last couple of seasons, there is no guarantee that Marcum will be ready for the 5th game after the break.
Thanks.
MW: If Marcum isn’t ready then Parrish will start that game. All the hands in the rotation are hot, and I don’t mind seeing Parrish get knocked to the bullpen, keeping everyone else on their regular day, rather than having everyone have to pitch on a 6th or 7th day.
- JJ“MW: So then a pitcher can’t be dominant without being extremely lucky?”
You are the one making the leap that the BABIP, from one game, is lucky and not a result of being dominant, not me. When you have a season’s worth of data, then you can use BABIP to see whether or not a guy has been lucky. But one start doesn’t tell you anything, because a low BABIP could be the function of total domination and inducing the contact to the places you want it.
MW: Sounds good to me.
- AriHey Mike
Great blog, as always.
Pretty off topic here…
but say Toronto gets an NFL team, or a 2nd NHL team in the area, or both…
do you think that would negatively affect the Blue Jays in an economic sense?
I don’t think the Jays would be hit too hard. It seems to me that most of the fair-weather types who would drop one team to embrace a new, trendy one have already left the Skydome years ago.
Also, the Argos are more popular than the Raptors? I don’t know about that one Mike!
MW: I don’t either, but NBA TV ratings aren’t close to those of the CFL, and the Argos outdraw the Raptors, though they play in a much bigger venue and the Raps have 5x as many games. I don’t think an NFL or 2nd NHL team would negatively affect the Blue Jays that much.
- James HHave a happy and safe Canada Day to all north of the border.
You’re correct, Halladay and Burnett had little or no margin for error the last two days. It’s a good thing they pitched as well as they did. I do not know if this season can be salvaged, but to do so the Jays will have to start winning series. If they can win either of the next two games, that will give them three straight series wins. You know what they say about Rome not having been built in a day.
Trivial information-Jhonny Peralta’s fourth inning home run last night was the first by an Indians clean-up hitter this season.
My take on the Rays is that after the All Star break they only have six games left with Boston and six games left with New York. They have built this season playing well against the Yankees and Red Sox. The Ray’s upcoming schedule features a lot of Indians, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles and Blue Jays. They start getting back into the meat of the schedule around August 22. At that time they start playing the Yanks and Sox again, as well as the Angels and White Sox. The kind of lead they can build between now and late August, as well as how well their relief pitching holds up will determine the Rays season.
MW: You should have learned from the Jays’ April, May and June that the schedule can’t be relied on as a predictor.
- Jim Branscome“As for the Rays, would you really rather have a team lose at least 90 games 10 years in a row and then give you a thrill for four months before falling out of the race?”
And for the last 10 years in a row, the Blue Jays have been +/- 3rd place in their division. And have they been fun to watch? Nope. They haven’t. They’ve been mediocre to watch. They had a season when they might have made the wild card. And they had a season when they placed above Boston. Er…that’s it. So as for enjoying watching this team I’ve supported and continue to support, let me tell you that mediocrity is just as difficult to enjoy as hopelessness. No one expected anything of the Rays, so there weren’t too many hopes dashed when they lost. This season and last season we were told we were ready to compete and our patience would be rewarded. Well it wasn’t, and it isn’t and with this bunch I have no particular hope that we’ll see a playoff berth anytime shortly. If the Rays crash and burn by September, well their fans still–metaphorically–have Paris. We have nothing. No hopes, no surprises, just the same old same old.
I’m not saying that Cito is the answer. Although he is the Second Coming! But I do think that Cito is the beginning of the answer.
MW: He is, indeed, the Second Coming. And I don’t think that, going through the 10 years of utter hopelessness, you’d have felt the same way.
- reyesYou don’t dominate despite a low BABIP - it’s cuz of it.
MW: So then a pitcher can’t be dominant without being extremely lucky?
Im not much of a stathead, but to dominate without a low BABIP would seem to require tons of K’s. A low BABIP doesn’t have to mean a guy is getting lucky, it can simply mean he is making pitches which are going to be pounded into the ground(and not very hard) which is what Halladay did a lot of yesterday.
MW: I agree. But the argument I have always heard is that an extremely low BABIP will eventually catch up with a guy and he’ll get pounded. I put forth that there do exist pitchers (not many) who can pitch to contact and still dominate - HLH III being exhibit A.
- PeeWeeJust wondering, do you know of any jersey modifications for tonight’s game?
It’s the least they could do, not that they had any control over the scheduling.
Thanks
MW: I’m assuming there will be Canadian flags on the caps, at the very least.
- SHANE WaterlooHappy Canada Day,
Its October 08, You’re J.P.
and your Jays have just finished 4th in the East with 86 wins. You have been given the chance to build for 2009 (unlikely in real life given these circumstances)
What would be your first 5 moves as you look to contend in 09?
MW: 86 wins will be higher than 4th in the East. You want five moves from me? A west coast road trip isn’t the right time to ask that!
- ukJayHey Mike
Yes, Clement was selected ahead of Tulowitski, just like Romero. Jeff Clement was ranked as the 42nd best prospect in the minor leagues coming into this season, Ricky Romero wouldn’t be found in the top 400.
Clements minor league stats this year in AAA - 333 batting average, 457 on-base percentage, 17 doubles and 14 home runs in 172 at bats.
Ricky Romero AA stats this year - 5.99 ERA, 82 IP, 103 hits allowed with 40 walks.
Ridiculous comment Mike. If you really followed the minors, you would know that Clement is a stud and Romero is a horrible bust. Ricky has not had success at ANY level.
And to answer #29 (PeterB) if i may, Boston does have endless financial resources, but they do not typically go over slot when drafting. They just make good selections. They spend lots of money on the international scene, and on free agents, but no more than anyone else in the draft .
Of the guys i mentioned (Papelbon, Youkilis, Masterson, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester), who received over-slot money? None that i am aware of.
Thanks Mike,
MW: I don’t know that to be true, and in fact, had thought that at least a couple of them were over slot. I’ll try to find out.
- rickMike, isn’t low BABIP one of the reasons Halladay is so dominant? Who’s the league leader in this category for pitchers with more than 80 innings?
MW: I don’t know.
- Ryan KHi Mike. Walk the dog and read the blog. Life is good.. Mike I was wondering when they do the voteing for gold gloves, do they weigh in the bat as well.. My example would be if our buddy J-Mack played 145 games and hit 4 trippers and posted a 244 avg. and had his daily high lite reels would he get the nod over somebody who hit 17 trippers, posted a 288 avg but only was 75 per-cent of a J-Mack with the glove.. Thanks..
MW: Yep, the bat counts. It shouldn’t, but that’s the way it is.
- FLIPPERMike,
- PatA comment for all the “the season is over” commenters out there.
Forget about what the Leafs have done to you and look at the Jays schedule in July and August and tell me there isn’t an opportunity to gain ground in the AL East.
The Jays play Baltimore 7 times, NYY 9 times, TB 9 times, and BOS 6 times. All of this before September.
There is no way the season can be “over” before all of these meaningful games are played.
Mike,
I know you’re probably sick of discussing the Rays… but I just learned something interesting about the historically. No team with MLB’s best record ever had the league’s worst record the season before.
Secondly, I understand not wanting to judge players/teams based on small sample sizes, but half a season of data isn’t a small sample size.
I don’t think the comparison with the Marlins is apt … they were 40 and 37 on July 1. They went 500 from then on out, finishing with 83 wins. To do that, the Rays would have to duplicate their record in the second half last season. They’ve improved. To think otherwise is silly. The defense is better and the pen is better this year.
If the Rays play one game below .500 the rest of the way. They finish with 90 wins. I’m assuming you’d take the under; I like many others who’ve commented would take the over on 90 wins for the Rays.
Anyway, that’s all I have to say, except for this, it may be too early to judge, but I’ll hope you’ll post a “mea culpa” and eat crow if you’re wrong about the Rays. You’re a straight shooter, so I’m sure you will. Until then, I won’t comment on them again, I promise.
As always, great blog and show…
MW: The Marlins may have been 40-37 on July 1st, but they were 76-65 on September 14th. I’d be thrilled to take the under on the Rays winning 90 games this season.
- Christopher TaylorMike,
Any thoughts on why some of Rios’ AB’s look like he is absolutely lost? Case in point: His strikeout in the 7th last night. My blind grandmother would have laid off that pitch.
MW: I’d give her kudos for getting into the box at all!
- Andrew (Guelph)All I am saying is that the quality of basketball in NBA is 10 times better than the quality of soccer in MLS. NBA is popular amongst all races where as mostly Europeans follow TFC.
Raptors maybe not be so popular outside of GTA but in GTA there’s no way Jays have a better TV rating than the Raps and I am ready to wager $20 on it.
MW: Hopefully, someone out there will take you up on it.
- Beburg aka The relief pitcherMike,
You mean, what are you talking about. You can’t read?
MW: Huh?
- brunoDoes Roy Halladay attend church?
MW: What does that have to do with anything?
- PeeWeeMan, Halladay is criminally underappreciated in this town. He should be as beloved as Doug Gilmour. That we as Torontonians can watch this man pitch every 5 days is incredible.
MW: Agreed.
- Chris JonesHi MIke, Happy Canada Day. Today I saw some of the 1989 Blue Jays vs Orioles where the Blue Jays clinched the division. I didn’t realize or forgot that the Blue Jays were out 10 games in June and played well enough to win the East. Maybe there is still hope that the Blue Jays can still make the playoffs this year. Their pitching has been great, I just wish their hitting was more consistent.
- Mark from HamiltonHappy Canada day Mike,
After watching this guy this past weekend with Atlanta and the past few years in Texas, is there any chance of signing Mark Texeira as a free agent. Then trading Adam Lind and Dustin Mcgowan for Jason Bay. I might be dreaming but it would be nice to wake up to that news. I know we have Lyle Overbay but we could you use him as DH and spot starter to give Texeira a day off.
MW: I wouldn’t want to wake up to that news. Teixeira, sure, but McGowan and Lind for Bay? Yikes.
- MarkHey Mike, you may have answered this already, but why in the heck is Toronto not playing in Canada on Canada Day? It is absolutely nonsense for them to be playing in Seattle. Can you imagine the uproar if Boston or New York played in Mexico on July 4th. Major League baseball needs to recognize the special circumstances of Toronto being a Canadian team and respecting oru National Birthday.
MW: Nobody plays in Mexico.
- Jason DeneaulMike
- steve wiltonHappy Canada Day!
Now,can I vent for second!
This town bugs me.Every time Fletcher or Sundin burps, it hits the front page!What is it with the increased obsession with this sport and this team? It is getting worse, Mike. Nobody talks baseball, except you!I can’t take leafs hockey 24/7 all year long! There is a god, EuroCup is over!Rios, Wells 8th.inning ughhh… .
Hi Mike, BABIP ? Doc has proven himself. Someone early in the season asked you, or Jerry or Alan who the Jays all time best pitcher was and the answer was the big guy from Texas we rented out for one season. I think it is Roy
Halladay. I’m concerned about Litch, he looked good his last start but that was against a N.L. team, lately the A. L. teams have been beating him, hopefully tonight or tomorrow night Litch will have another good outing verses Seattle. (The NL don’t know Litch like the AL does.) Mike we have played almost 90 games this year, plus 162 last year, can’t you see our four top hitters just can’t hit in the clutch. We need to change those faces. 90 games is a lot of games!!!
MW: 90 games is a lot of games. 500 games is more games.
- forrestgumpCito the second coming? Say what? Cito is an ideal manager for the rest of this year, and maby in 15 years Cito has reflected on his mistakes of many years ago and is a better manager today, I hope so. There was a reason no one hired him before even tho his team won two world series. He is a breath of fresh air over the previous manager who seemed to have a “I don’t care attitude” and rested too many of our starters too often, they shouldn’t play golf during a game day, they have plenty of time to play golf in the winter, the players have an obligation to the fans. BTW back in March ESPN would have picked Tampa Bay first, but just couldn’t do it because of Boston and New York, but ESPN Sports did say look out for Tampa Bay!
MW: A lot of people were saying look out for Tampa Bay in March. They were kind of the darkhorse darlings. Cito the second coming. Literally.
- forrestgumpmike, do you recognize tampa’s greatness yet? actually you are wrong the day they win 90 games since you predicted they would never win that amount. but you are probably going to say “I never said that” in september. and tbay only has to play around .500 ball to win 90 games now. problem with you mike is you play the games on paper not on the field. on paper tampa is not this good and toronto is not this bad but on the field they are. that’s why you play the game in case noboby told you.
MW: Is that why they play the games? Nobody told me.
- roccoRe: Comment No. 83, June 30th 2008 @ 2:45 pm.
No need to publish this, but I’d like to point out that the comment referenced above was lifted word for word from a Jayson Stark chat on ESPN.com. You may be more forgiving than I, but if anything deserves the ban hammer, plagiarism has got to be right up there.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=21312
MW: Nah, I’ll publish it. Come on, commenters, if you want to pretend to be Jayson Stark, that’s cool. Just don’t do it here.
- AdamYou’re right, I would have hated to watch my team come in last place year after year. Except when the Jays were in last place or the Orioles were in last place. (Were the Orioles ever in last place?) But watching this team isn’t markedly different. They didn’t lose as much, but they never won when they had to either. The nearest we ever got to the playoffs was the two game series with Boston at home. Years ago. All we had to do was win one, I think. That’s it, that’s all. But we didn’t. And that choke thing has been the hallmark of the team since 1994.
On another topic, any idea how to fix Rios short of thumping him upside the head whenever he gets picked off/nearly gets picked off/whiffs his way through three bad balls to k himself out? Or is he the position-player equivalent of AJ Burnett? Million-dollar arm, maybe not a million-dollar head? Perhaps there’s nothing can be done for him?
MW: It’s hard to imagine that the Alex Rios of the last two years has simply vanished. I’m sure he’s in there somewhere. Tampa Bay has finished last every year of its existence save for the wretchedness that was 2004.
- reyesWhy don’t you beilieve in the Rays? Best young bat in the league in Evan Longoria and best young pitcher in the league in Scotty Kazmir..
MW: I’ve answered that question WAY too many times.
- MikeBABIP is one of the dumbest baseball stats ever devised. Whoever came up with it obviously doesn’t know the first thing about pitching.
MW: It’s actually a reasonable predictor of success or failure.
- ShmuelHey Mike,
This question is pretty out there, but do you think any MLB teams are for sale, and if so would any wealthy Canadian person or company make a move to bring a team back to Canada in either Vancouver(all the fans from in Seattle last night) , Montreal, Calgary,etc?
MW: Not gonna happen.
- James R.“MW: Never once have I said that John Gibbons was a great manager, but he was fine.”
OK, he was fine. But I think this team needs, and this fan base deserves, a great manager. Not a manager who does a reasonable job.
- reyesI heard Bucks comments on the Jays this morning. Honestly I think Cito has more input into this team then just a manager. Bucks interpertation of recent events is Cito was a Godfrey and or Beeston hiring, and he was maybe here as a second opinion on future moves. What is Beeston role with the Jays?
MW: Beeston isn’t an employee anymore, I don’t think, though he still has an office and a box at the ballpark.
- jasonMike,
Your paragrapgh about Cito getting the credit has me scratching my head. Do you only want to give credit to Cito when the hitting does well? Managers are arguably more important in the close games. Managing the starting pitchers (AJ who has been great under Cito) managing the bullpen. All I ask is that you answer these questions with yes or no.
Do the Jays look better (overall) since Cito took over?
Should he get some managerial credit for the pitching success over the past few games?
Should Gibbons get managerial credit for the pitching success when he was Manager?
I don’t know how many times you, JP and formerly (and thankfully gone) Gibbons need to be reminded that a baseball manager needs to manage every facet of the game either directly or via other coaches.
Have you ever managed baseball at any level? How much weight do you think your opinion holds on these subjects?
Thanks.
Matt P
MW: The answers to your questions are yes, yes, and yes. I don’t know how much weight my opinion holds, but you asked me for it, so it must be worth something.
- Matt PMike,
It is disappointing now that there is only one Cdn team in MLB that the Jays do not play at home on Canada Day.
Since Mr Rogers obtained the Jays how many times have they played at home on July 1?
Does Mr Rogers have any say on this scheduling matter?
MW: No team is in position to demand anything on the schedule.
- MarkComment #26..Nice Latin..The Rays are being mentioned as contenders ahead of the Jays..Hell has frozen over..Sooner or later the Rays were gonna win a few here and there..Its only been 10 years and more then one thousand losses..The Rays will be in the hunt for some time and I would rather see them win then the dreaded Yanks..But I agree with you Mike..They aren’t quite ready yet..We should enjoy Halladay because how much longer will he want to play here?..He is like a Mats Sundin..An exceptional player on a mediocre team..Do you think the Jays get a free pass in Toronto?..I mean media wise..The Leafs are #1 and when they blow chunks they hear about it..It seems the Jays can “get away” with mediocrity..Its been almost 15 years since a playoff appearance and there hasn’t been alot of bad press about them..I have read a few disparaging articles in the Sun recently and Rich Griffin of the Star has been his miserable self but it seems to fade..John Ferguson got fired after 3 seasons of not making the playoffs and J.P has gone almost 7 years with little success..There hasn’t been a lot of front page “headhunts” like we saw with Ferguson..If this was Boston, J.P would have been hung by a shoelace..I don’t think J.P has done a horrible job as the Jays have a solid pithing staff..Some of the credit has to been given to him for Marcum and Litch..But they just can’t win enough games,and in the end, that should be what counts the most..
MW: I don’t think the Jays get a pass in the media at all, most casual fans think the Blue Jays have been terrible from 1994 on. The Leafs have been “getting away” with mediocrity or worse for over 40 years and yes, John Ferguson got fired after three non-playoff seasons, but it is twice as easy to make the playoffs in the NHL. If you don’t, you’re horrible.
- gumpMike, I’m just wondering why you would put Larry Walker in the Hall of Fame? Not to diss him, but he has only 360 something HR and 2200 something hits. That’s not bad, but hall of fame numbers, eh.
MW: Yeah, but he’s Larry Walker.
- andrewMike, but you havn’t told me the reason why you would put him in?
MW: Who?
- andrewM-dub
- slobberfacecomment #15:
not even slightly
…but only because Percival’s hammy looks like it isnt going to hold up. Therefore, new WS MVP = Dan Wheeler!!!
Roy Halladay attending church has everything to do with everything Mike. God is a baseball fan too. Just read for yourself in the book of Genesis. It starts off, In-the-big-inning….Don’t kid yourself Mike.
- Vito From HamiltonYou may have answered the question many times but you actually haven’t stated any facts in your previous arguments. It seems to me that you are just writing this team off because of past failure. If your supposedly a stat guy, you would know that the Rays are the best team in baseball.
MW: The record alone says that the Rays are the best team in baseball. They’re 51-32, nobody’s better. Will they be the best team in baseball at the end of the year? No. And I’ve stated the facts for my arguments many, many times.
- MikeHey Mike, I know no one plays in Mexico, it was a point of exageration. Apparently my sarcasm was not obvious to you, as yours is always to me.
MW: I understand, but it’s valid to argue that the Jays should be playing in Canada, because there’s actually a team that plays in Canada. I think the Yankees may have been here on July 4th a time or two in the past, though.
- Jason DeneaulHorrible throw to second by Zaun in the 2nd. Wasn’t even in the area code.
- Vito From HamiltonMike,
I had to laugh when I read your preemptive strike against all the Tampa Bay Rays believers out there. Come on, Mike, you had to know they would shove this down your throat every chance they got. You are right, you can’t win a playoff spot in July, but this is all your own fault. I would have thought you would have learned your lesson 2 years ago with your horrible prediction that the Tigers were not for real and then they made it to the World Series. Now this year, you predicted the Jays would be good (Oops!) and the Rays won’t be there in the end. The jury is still out on the Rays, but my advice is from now on, just keep your mouth shut when it comes to making predictions. That way, you won’t have to deal with the hoards of Rays supporters wanting you to be wrong.
Baseball is a sport that you just can’t predict. You can try, but it is impossible. I have offered my friends $10,000 if they can produce ONE pre-season publication that predicted the D-Backs to win in ‘01, the Angels to win in ‘02, and the Marlins to win in ‘03. So far, I still have my money, because NOBODY predicted they would win.
You are not the only media person who looks foolish this season. Jon Hayman LOVED the Rockies coming out of the spring. They were his team to beat. He also said the Mariners would win the west and the Cardinals would be terrible and might lose 100 games (triple oops!).
Mike, you are one of the most knowledgeable people when it comes to baseball that I have ever heard and even you know nothing about baseball. Nobody does, that’s my point. Who predicted Kyle Lohse would win 10 games by July 1?? Nobody, that’s who.
Please Mike, stop making predictions. It is just an exercise in futility.
MW: It is, indeed, but everyone insists that it be done every year, so I did it. I was kinda right about the Tigers, though - they did wind up blowing a 13 1/2 game lead and losing the division. I take small solace in that.
- GeoffI’m talking about Larry Walker. Why would you put him in?
MW: Because I’m sentimental and a proud Canadian. He’s the best position player ever produced by this country, and there’s merit to that. On his overall numbers, he was a lifetime .313/.400/.565 with an OPS+ of 140 (does that adjust for park effects?). He was a three-time batting champion, an MVP and a seven-time Gold Glove winner (legitimately, he was an outstanding defensive RF). Three of his four most comparables are Hall of Famers, in Chipper Jones, Duke Snider and Joe DiMaggio. Of course, he only hit 383 homers and had 2160 hits, so he won’t get in.
- andrew“Eventually, these bats will come around, and when they do - this team is going to be very, very good. One hopes it doesn’t happen too late for it to matter.”
Come on Mike! You’ve been saying this since May. This team can’t hit. The only way this team can be very, very good is if their pitching is consistently unbelievable. Too much to ask.
It’s pretty sad that July 1st more people are interested in talking about the Rays than the Jays. I have to admit that I’m following the Rays more closely every day. We’re not going 48-30 or whatever it is going to take to make the playoffs. I’m a Jays fan but I’m also a realist. What do we need to to in order to compete in 2009?
Thanks as always.
MW: They need to hit and pitch the way they’re capable.
- Rob H.If the Rays aren’t the best team in baseball, who is Mike??
MW: The Rays ARE the best team in baseball right now. Of course, the Mariners were the best team in baseball on July 1, 2003, and didn’t make the playoffs. It does happen.
- MikeI agree its easier to make the playoffs in the NHL..But 14 years?..Imagine what would happen in Leafland?
I don’t think the Jays have been horrible since 94..We had a juiced up Rodger Clemons for a few seasons..The Jays have tried to build a winner but they have confused me at times with their methods..Since the mid 90’s or so, the Jays tend to trade for or sign “risk” players..There always seems to be some kind of angle to bring players here..Clemons was coming off a poor season and some thought he was done..So Toronto was able to sign him..That deal worked out very well for us..Clemons had some “help” but he was successful.. Frank Thomas was Almost 40 with one decent season in almost 4 years and the Jays sign him to a 2 year 20 mill deal..A.J Burnett is another one..55 million for a .500 pitcher with mental issues..Troy Glaus accepted a trade here but he had injury concerns..Not to pick on J.P..Ash had a few doosies too..Raul Mondesi and his what 17 million?..for Shawn Green?..You see the trend..
- gumpI have a question for you Mike..I have been told by many friends that Gavin Floyd could is lucky to have the stats he has today. Do you think Floyd can keep his #’s up throughout the season??
MW: Gavin Floyd is a very good young pitcher who has taken a while to hit his stride. He’s no flash-in-the-pan, but is he going to have a WHIP of 1.14 and an oba of .212 all season? Probably not.
- Sox FanMike, talk to me about how great Downs’ stats are. Don’t forget to include when the game is on the line or in serious situations. You Downs lovers are a riot.
- Vito From HamiltonI’m so sick of this team, Mike. Again they drag me through to 1AM only to lose in despicable fashion in a game that they had no business being in aided by a huge error against a last place team. I CANNOT watch this crap anymore.
MW: Promise?
- Vito From HamiltonMike…you know how the Jays have ZERO wins when they trail in the 7th inning or later?
guess how many games they have LOST when they have had a lead in the 7th or later…EIGHT!!!!. i just went back and counted every game.
god, you arent going to in the playoff hunt with a split like that… i mean if the split were even half that bad..they would be so much better off. i dont get it.
MW: It’s really sad, isn’t it? The bullpen is, what, 4-17?
- sammyThank JP for Shaun Camp for me Mike. What was he smoking that day he decided to bring this guy in here? And Carelson…what a bust!
- Vito From HamiltonPythagenport 3rd order wins and losses: Tampa Rays 52.4 29.6
And I’m not mistaken, their PECOTA projections had them winning 85+ games this year.
A fluke? Certainly not.
Will they decline? At this point, it’s not very likely at all.
MW: You have to explain Pythagenport 3rd order wins to me. They’re on pace to win 99, which is a lot more than 85+.
- SteveNot my description, it’s Baseball Prospectus’:
W3, L3 (”Third-order wins”): Pythagenport wins and losses, based on AEQR and
AEQRA.
AEQR, AEQRA: EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the
quality of their opponent’s pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR,
the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting.
———–
So Tampa has faced better than average pitching and better than average hitting, and has taken that into account for their 3rd order wins record. Every statistic around suggests this team is a very good one.
MW: Hard not to be when the team has the best record in baseball. But thanks for the info!
- SteveAre you some kind of idiot Vito?
This was only Downs’ 2nd blown save. He hadn’t given up a run in over 2 months. If there is such a thing as clutch, Scott Downs is it. He’s basically been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. What the hell isn’t to like about him?
- Steve@post 83
“…hoards of Rays supporters…”.
Surely that’s one of those joke phrases like ‘inflatable dartboard’ or ‘underwater hairdryer’?
- BenWell I may not be able to keep my promise Mike because I need my fix of baseball, but I can’t afford them my respect at this time. Same old crap. Blow big lead in late innings, lose it by one run in extras, apologize for the bullpen. In retrospect knucklehead Wells’ baserunning mistake was just the kind of blunder to set the table for this latest failure. What a panzy-a** baseball team if I ever did see one.
- Vito From HamiltonI’m not Dunn ranting yet, Mike. The best complement to this team would be the addition of Maxwell Smart President.
- Vito From HamiltonCan a playoff spot now be clinched in July?
I was pretty drunk when I posted that, and took it to mean it could never happen. You’re right in that it can’t be done this year.
“As for the Rays, would you really rather have a team lose at least 90 games 10 years in a row and then give you a thrill for four months before falling out of the race?”
This is pretty unfair since you’re choosing to include the past 10 years of results but not factor in the expected performance over the next 10 years.
And yes, OPS+ adjusts for park effects.
To sum up, Pythagenport adjusts for your opponents winning %, and your opponents opponents winning %.
Now, I’m not sure exactly what this says about Roy Halladay, but here are his BABIP’s from 2002 on:
.289
.285
.311
.264
.277
.301
.286
MW: I don’t think it’s realistically possible to clinch a playoff spot in July. You’d have to have a 55-game lead (or so) on the 5th-best team in the league. Even if every team but you loses all its interleague games, chances are that you’re going to have at least three .500 teams. Let’s say that through 110 games, the 5th-best team in the league is 50-60, a stretch to be sure - you would have to be 106-4 to have clinched a playoff spot.
- Dan WThe Rays’ expected performance going forward is very good, but it’s still hypothetical. I should have added “give you a thrill for four months and look like they’ll be really good the next few seasons.”
Oops, guess I messed up that 3rd order Pythagenport thing.
Not sure what I was thinking of in the opponents winning % and opponents opponents winning %, but I have a feeling it might be something that’s used for football, not baseball. Or, I might have just made it up completely, not sure.
Thanks to Steve for giving the proper answer and letting me waste a good 30 minutes researching Pythagenport and Pythagenpat.
- Dan WTo #99: Yeah it’s definitely not realistic, but it is mathematically possible and I was just being a dick lol.
MW: Yes, you were.
- Dan W