1:10 AM Eastern
It’s not Lyle Overbay who is overwrought, it’s JaysTalk Nation (that sounds awful, doesn’t it? I won’t use it again). Tonight, once again, the Jays’ first baseman was the target of the venom of most JaysTalk callers, upset that they didn’t have the chance to tear into J.P. Ricciardi, who will be on the show on Thursday night instead.
Yes, Overbay hit into a huge double play tonight. Yes, it was the 15th time he has hit into a twin killing this season, meaning he is GIDPing at a near-record pace. Yes, the double plays he hits into always seem to come at important times. No, he doesn’t suck.
It’s hard to define when an “important time” to not hit into a double play is, because really, hitting into a double play at any time is pretty counter-productive. Five of Overbay’s DPs have come with the Jays in the lead, though, and another seven have come in games in which his teammates combined to go 6-for-56 (.107) with runners in scoring position. The Jays went 1-6 in those seven games, and each one of those six losses was by one run. Sure, Overbay hitting into a double play didn’t help, but neither did the rest of the Jays barely outhitting me with an opportunity to drive in runs.
No double play is good, but Overbay has only hit into three really ill-timed ones. Tonight’s - bases-loaded and 1 out, in a tie game in the 7th inning; a 3-2-3 job with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 10th against Seattle when the Jays were down a run; and one against Texas with runners at first and second and nobody out with the Jays trailing 3-2 in the 6th. They wound up winning that game, though.
So, is Lyle Overbay killing the Blue Jays? Hardly. He’s second on the team in on-base percentage, RBIs and extra-base hits (tied with Scott Rolen), third in homers and doubles and first by a mile in walks. Is he your classic super-banger, middle-of-the-order first baseman? Not by a longshot. Is he an above-average major-league hitter? Without question. Is he having a disappointing season? Absolutely. Is he a main reason that the Blue Jays are having a disappointing season? Absolutely not. How many question can I ask of myself, then answer? I think this is the last one.
OK, one more. Is his standing on the team leaderboards a result of him having a good year or the standards on those leaderboards being so low due to a team-wide offensive failure? It’s the latter. It’s a TEAM-WIDE OFFENSIVE FAILURE. Everybody. Only Rod Barajas and Joe Inglett are performing above a level that could reasonably be expected of them.
Sorry, but I don’t like it when everybody gangs up on one guy like it’s his fault that things aren’t going well. It’s never one guy’s fault. Not even Gary Denbo.
Now then, onto the game. First - it was near-miraculous that Roy Halladay was able to make his start, never mind throw 121 pitches and basically dominate save for a bad change-up to Ken Griffey, Jr. and a four-batter blip in the 3rd inning. I know he’s just a human being, but I’m not so sure sometimes.
The feeling around the team has changed, without question, as a result of the 22 runs over two games going into this one. They’re starting to score, so they don’t look as flat. When they fell behind 5-0 in the 3rd, I didn’t think the game was over. A week ago, I would have. Even though they didn’t hit with RISP (2-for-11 tonight), they still scored five runs because they’ve remembered how to hit home runs. Adam Lind hit a laser beam the other way (Denbo would be proud), and Joe Inglett jerked one down the line, but after Inglett’s homer, the Jays fell back into the old pattern, scoring one run on eight hits and leaving 10 men on base.
One thing that always infuriates me, and I suppose managers and pitching coaches even more, is when a pitcher won’t throw a strike to a hitter who is trying to get out. It happened in the 10th inning tonight, and resulted in the winning run. Didn’t cost the Jays the game, because they’d had many opportunities to win it before that happened, but it did result in the winning run.
After Brian Wolfe walked Norris Hopper on five pitches to lead off the 10th, rookie Paul Janish came up to bunt, and Wolfe wouldn’t let him. He threw a ball, then Janish fouled off a bunt attempt and Wolfe didn’t hit the plate again, walking him on five pitches, too! He then missed with a fastball before throwing a buntable pitch to David Ross, who got himself out, as planned. My philosophy has always been that if a player wants to get out, I’m more than happy to oblige. If you get too caught up in throwing a pitch that’s going to be difficult to bunt, you risk walking a guy. Just put one right down the chute, let him get out - had that happened, that game might still be going on right now.
Before I go, I had one of the greatest conversations I have ever had with a pro athlete tonight, and I wanted to make sure I mentioned it, because so many of these guys get a reputation for being jerks. Ken Griffey, Junior answered 10 questions (posed by our own Jason Rozon, you’ll be able to hear them on TBJTW this week or next) and then after he was done, stuck around for a good half-hour, just talking. About our kids, about golf, about paintball, about Pop Warner football in Florida, about anything and everything and not about baseball. He even commiserated with me about the fact that I have two young girls, and felt for me that I may yet have to go through cheerleading. Griffey and I are the same age, but his kids are a lot older than mine. I asked for his advice on what to do when young men start coming by to date my girls, and he said “All you have to do is shoot the first one, then they’ll all think you’re crazy and no one will come around.” That’s a much better strategy than what I had been kicking around.
I’ve been around pro athletes the last 20 years, and never with one so comfortable, friendly and engaging with people he had just met. It got to the point where I felt uncomfortable about being down there so close to go time, since I had work to do upstairs to get ready for the broadcast, but there was no way I was going to leave. I’m thinking it’s getting late, and he has to face Roy Halladay in half an hour! It was tremendous.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk - unfortunately, there was no J.P. Ricciardi, though it was a pretty good show nonetheless:
Before everyone starts to think that J.P. is running scared because of the events of last week - this isn’t the first time that he’s not come on after a game goes late (this one was 3:35), and he always shows up the next day, so we will have Wednesdays with J.P., The Thursday edition after the series finale with the Reds.
Comments are encouraged as always. I’m sorry for not getting them up quickly today, I’m doing the best I can.
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Hi Mike -
I have a question about an AB in the first inning. With 2 outs and an 0-2 on Brandon Phillips, did you think Doc was getting too cute? He had a chance to put him away, but gave Mr. Phillips way too much respect. He ends up walking him and then Griffey hits it out.
I’ve seen Doc do this a few times where he perhaps out thinks himself and is behind a few runs to start the game. Was Doc not being aggressive enough in that situation?
It’s a different ballgame if he nails Phillips and gets a 1-2-3 first inning.
I love Doc. One of my all-time favorites. But, I’ve noticed this of him from time to time.
Also, with all this talk of Schilling being a borderline candidate for the HOF, I want to know what your opinion is AND do you think Doc is on his way to a HOF career? Right now it doesn’t seem like he’d get more wins than Schilling and surely won’t get to the Fall Classic as many times as him (hope I’m wrong there).
Thank you. I live in NY and listen to your show and read your blog daily. Keep up the good work … don’t always agree with you, but I always listen.
MW: I don’t think he got too cute, or that he gets too cute. Halladay throws every pitch with a distinct purpose, and it’s usually to retire the hitter with as few pitches as possible. I can see Halladay getting more wins than Schilling, and pretty easily if he stays healthy (he’s already more than halfway there and has only had four full, healthy seasons). I think the standards for the Hall will change soon with regard to starting pitchers, and Halladay may well be on his way.
- T from NYWhat’s your batting stance like?
Do you waggle it like Sheffield? Are you quiet and still like Moises Alou?
Batting gloves? Pine tar? Switch hitter? Do you jump on the first 17 MPH fastball that you see or do you like to take a few pitches? Can you hit the curveball?
MW: I’m reasonably quiet, I think. Gloves, no pine tar, right-handed hitter. First hittable pitch gets smacked.
- JohnLyle’s DP was a killer to be sure, but I can’t blame the loss on that one at bat. Last week I may have simply because the club was floundering so badly. Maybe it’s my imagination, but the guys seem to have a lot more fight in them all of the sudden. Like yourself, I knew it wasn’t over when the score was 5-0.
Cincinnati’s radio announcers raved over Halladay even though he did not pitch his best game. Announcer Jeff Brantley noted that even when “Doc” was in trouble, he never once looked to the dugout for Cito to come and get him. Brantly said he sees pitchers do that far too often. To win the series would be nice. That would be a step in the right direction. The club can only make up the ground they have lost one day at a time. Here’s to tomorrow.
- Jim BranscomeIf this trend continues,when do the Jays realize some player changes need to be done. Offensively Lind looks like the only guy worth keeping into the future. Its sad when our bench players like Inglett and scutaro are out performing our big money players. I wish some of our guys were on incentive heavy contracts, then maybe they would get paid for driving in runs (or wouldn’t get paid as per recently). I guess I am still praying for a miracle, but am getting more disgruntled with every step back in the standings we take.
MW: Scutaro isn’t outperforming the big-money players. Only Lind and Wilkerson have a lower OPS than he does. It is particularly crazy that Joe Inglett is leading the team in OPS, but he has only had 100 at-bats. Still, ride the hot hand.
- jasonHi Mike
Actually, Overbay’s 15 GIDP’s make him a very dubious player from an offensive standpoint. GIDP’s are like an anti-single … so it’s like basically taking away someone else’s single. The average AL 1B doesn’t hit a lot of GIDP’s; a quick “eyeball average” is around 6-7. There’s a few of AL 1B’s who absolutely refuse to ground into any DP’s (Giambi, Pena).
So if I assume an average of 7 GIDPs instead of 15, and subtract 8 singles from his OBP and SLG, you get a .350 OBP and .730 OPS player, which is basically what David Eckstein is producing … basically the bottom 1/3 of AL 1B’s. And Overbay doesn’t provide great defensive value, nor does he have speed which can help negate other players GIDP, or take extra bases, etc, so even when judged on an overall basis, he’s just downright mediocre, and that’s not even accounting for the position that he plays.
Can World Series teams carry someone like the 2008 Overbay on their team ? Sure, if you have guys with OPS over 1.000 playing other positions … which the Jays don’t have currently or in the immediate future.
And given that 2 of the 3 outfield positions, 2B, 3B are locked up, and SS and Catchers who can really hit are too costly anyways, I would be looking hard over the offseason to improve this and the DH position.
Alex
MW: I don’t agree with you that grounding into a double play takes away a previously-hit single. You can add an out if you want, that’s fair. I would say all three OF positions are locked up, and I agree with you that they should look hard to improve the DH spot in the off-season.
- Alex HuangToday Mike..I have a few proverbial bones to pick. I think it might just be cause im sort of peeved at tonight’s loss because I, like you, thought that change was in the air..that this would be the game that they would not only come back and make a game of it..but win. alas, it was so similar to several games in the past that i have to make mention of it.
Here are some games that come to mind.
1. Tuesday 4/8 Jays down vs oakland 8-6..come back to tie with two runs in the eighth..lose in 9th.
2.wed 4/16 Jays down 5-2 in the bottom of the 8th vs texas..score three to tie. lose in 14 innings despite having two separate chances with men on 1st and 3rd and one out.
3. fri 4/25 jays down 2-1 in the eighth vs KC..score 3 to go ahead by two runs…defense chokes its way to an 8-4 loss.
4. thurs 5/8 vs rays. jays down 3-0 in the 9th!! score THREE to tie. lose in 13 even though had leadoff triple in bottom 10th…didnt score..
There are a few more games that are close..but not quite as painful. tonights game is perfect for number 5 in that they came from behind to tie..and then had multiple chances to take the lead and just didnt. in fact, as you’ve pointed out..they’ve only won a SINGLE game in which they were ever down by three runs or more. that is an amazing stat given how many games there are where a team might get three early runs and then give it up. amazing. so when u say that there’s a different feeling in the air..and that you didnt feel the game was over after they got down early..i have to point out to you that you should look back and see the number of games where they have been down and come back…they are great at tying..they just dont win..i really thought this was gonna be a corner turning game..instead more of the same.
MW: They are pretty good at tying, but not lately.
- sammy jalalzaias for overbay..theres good reason why people are annoyed by his situational performances. check this out..
avg/obp/slg
none on 276/364/428
RISP 211/385/368
RISP 2out 154/389/423
so it would seem, the bigger the situation..the crappier he has been hitting. maybe its luck. but it is still true and people do tend to get annoyed by such performance..
i find it odd that u minimize the RBI stat as a marker of player success then refer to overbay’s rbis to justify his production. of course he’s gonna have some RBI’s just cause of where he bats.
finally..what is going to give this weekend when atlanta comes to town?
an 11-20 team in 1 run games meets a 4-20 team? can they both lose??
MW: Overbay’s far from the only one on this team whose performance declines the bigger the situation goes. Overbay has hit 5th, 2nd and 7th this year, so I wouldn’t say that he’d drive in runs regardless of where he bats. I do minimize RBIs, but when a caller says “he doesn’t drive in runs”, the natural answer is “he’s second on the team in RBIs”. It’ll be interesting to watch what happens when the Braves come - could it be the perfect storm?
- sammy jalalzaiHi Mike,
Stayed to listen to JP last night and was curious about his no show, for sure!
I’m with Rob on the team dynamic issue. Too many bodies creates frustration, can upset chemistry and players seem to feel some discomfort when being moved around in the batting order.
There’s no question in my mind that JP/JG were in favour of the more the merrier syndrome.
Hey, even my own slo-pitch members are very sensitive if I move them around in the batting order!
I read a quote from Frank Thomas after his good start in Oakland and he attributed his
successful return (until injured) to being able to stay in the batting order spot that he was most comfortable with,
not his spot when he was with the Jays. Is that realistic or just BS?
And to the other bloggers, it would be awesome to have Carl Crawford, if the Jays couldn’t get my Boggs choice from Texas
I noted on the comparable Rays blogs that some fans are starting to consider Crawford “over rated” and we all know about the Rays limited budget.
With Rios in Right (or centre) and Crawford in Left (or DH)
that might actually sell some more tickets!
MW: Why on earth would you DH Carl Crawford?
- BRick from Oakvillethe jays arent good enough to get away with a 1B like Overbay. thats all there is to it. that being said, Stormy Weathers made a sick play to come up with the ball and start it…
MW: If Wells, Rios and Rolen (and Overbay) were all hitting as they’re capable, they could get away with Lyle at first just fine.
- slobberfaceTwo things regarding the previous thread:
On comment #71 - as much as I LOVE “One Night In Bangcok” I think a “between innings anthem” ought to have kind of a motivational theme so I think, given the constant ill-informed grumbling about whether or not the guys “care” enough maybe T’Pau’s “Hear and Soul” is what we need.
re #79 - I too have been greedily eyeing Matt Laporta but agree with you that AJ alone won’t cut it….so how about AJ + Tallet + Ginley or something along those lines?
MW: I don’t think Tallet adds value, Ginley does, though. Might still not be enough, but it might.
- WillRainp.s. cool about Griff
- slobberfaceHey Mike,
Tuned into the game just after Joe Inglett crushed another fastball! I bet that put a smile on your face (actually, I’m assuming it was a fastball, like I say, he had just hit it when I tuned in).
People want to complain about Overbay, but your stats don’t lie! I won’t lie that I wasn’t disappointed that even with the new regime at the helm we didn’t manage to score with the bases juiced and no outs, but again, it’s not the managers who do the hitting.
It could always be worse though, I mean, we could have one of the Jays attacking the GM, throwing him to the ground and what not… oops, sorry Shawn Chacon…
MW: It was a fastball, but only 90 mph.
- LukeHi Mike, Thank you for sticking up for Lyle. I am a a big fan of his and as you say, he is not responsible for all that is wrong with the Jays. The doubleplays are frustrating but he gets his walks and doubles. Thanks for doing a good job.
- Lizliz
Man oh man it sure doesn’t take long for the vultures to land when something dies - so Overbay hit into a dp whoopee do! Yip, wasn’t hard to tell that was his plan and he was able to get it done - gimmee a break. Overbay has been steady and fairly consistent of late and I have no idea why there are so many ready to pounce on this guy at the first opportunity - give it a rest.
The “Doc” is unbelievable - you mentioned last week Mike - that if he doesn’t miss his next start (after the head hit) then he is a “monster”! No kidding!
Just getting by the mental part after his ordeal in PA would have been tough and may have played a part in the start he had. Talk about a guy with “True Grit”!
All you JP bashers take a minute to think of the positives - how about him picking up Scutaro as an “insurance policy” and the trade for Rolen. What a difference those two alone have made. Both have fast become favorites for the fans.
Nice to hear Mike you had “non-baseball” chat with KG-Jr - speaks volumes of his upbringing doesn’t it. Just looking at the guy and his “boyish” grin you just know he is that kind of person. Sounds like you really enjoyed it a lot.
Tought loss for sure last night - but coming back from a 5 run deficit is still something positive to take from the game - prior to this game being down 5 runs left you feeling pretty empty - for whatever reason I too felt they would come back and had Doc had one of his usual starts - 5 runs would have been enought to win it!
I still feel the positive as to the change and only time will tell.
Thanks.
- BobHello Mike
Interesting comment about Overbay. The problem here is that fans (and human beings) have a bad tendency of remembering the bad things and forget about the good things, unless the good thing is something spectacular, like a Joe Carter home run. It is an unfortunate human trait.
Question - is it my imagination that Halladay is more prone to people hitting his pitches now (and getting hits), because when you look at his record, he is still the best..or did he just change is philosophy how he approach hitters. Get them to hit and if he pitched it right, it will be an out.
MW: Halladay’s actually striking out more hitters this year than he has the last couple of seasons. But he’s all about pitch efficiency.
- francisMike, do you think Roy Halladay will make the all star game. Also, Rios is starting to get hot and if you attribute it to Gene Tenace?
MW: I think Halladay will go to the all-star game, and I attribute Rios’ heating up to Rios. If all someone has to tell him is “pull the ball” to get him out of a rut, what does that say?
- andrewHi Mike, great to hear your story about Griffey Jr. It’s always nice neat to meet famous personalities and find out they’re not arrogant bums, but rather ordinary people who appreciate their followers. In my travels, I’ve been fortunate to run into a number of athletes and celebrities randomly on the street over the last several years, such as Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, Mike Tyson, WWE wrestler HHH, Owen Wilson, and Christian Slater. All were more than friendly and more than happy to snap a quick picture with me. Sadly, the only person to ever refuse me a quick picture was our own surly A.J. Burnett. He’s a decent pitcher, but I don’t have much respect for him beyond that.
- James GlasbergenWhat the heck did I do to anger you?
MW: Honestly? Are you that dense that you don’t realize?
- antonMike
- TPDoc is just simply the best.I can’t think of any other pitcher right now in the league that I would have as my ace.He may not have the win/loss that some of the others have,but he is still head and shoulders above most.Unfortunate last night was one of the rare nights he gives up a few extra runs,but the Jays wasted many more nights when he pitches a shutout.
Your “preachin to the choir” Mike when you mention Wolfe”s night.Man that was hard to watch. I kept saying to myself “just throw him something to bunt already!”He obviously didn’t have his command but could’t he have threw something over the plate and got the ball in play?
On the brighter side,a coulple of weeks ago,extra innings wouldn’t have been necessary as the Jays probably would have been shut out.Turning this thing around is a process not something that’s going to happen overnight.I’m confident Cito will have this club looking pretty respectfull by season’s end but it may well take other teams faltering to have a true shot at the post season.
What was going through Dusty Baker’s head when he had Jay Bruce bunting with one out and men on 1st and second??
MW: Old-time baseball.
- Chris JonesI’m sorry Mike. I hear your brilliant defence of Overbay but cannot be moved on this one. Overbay IS killing the Jays whether or not you want to admit it or not, well, that’s your bag. Appreciate your opinions, but I still must classify his performance this year as pretty much indefensible. His double plays are getting on my nerves too much. He needs a bus ticket outta here. And please I hope to God he takes Vernon Wells with him.
- Vito From Hamiltonits funny that we are shocked when an athlete has a good conversation instead of being a jerk. That is a shame.
MW: That’s not what shocked me, what shocked me was the half-hour after the interview.
- kevinMike…
What do you think the chances Adam Lind leads our team in Homers by years end? I think it’s going to happen.
MW: I wouldn’t bet on it.
- Andrew (Guelph)Mike, I don’t know if you’ve noticed but Gregg Zaun has been dropping a considerable amount of balls behind the plate. He’s really looking scrappy but hey he is hitting like a champion so…
I’m so jeleous about the ‘Griffey” chat you had. The guy is a true pro. Who else ranks among your favourites?
WO.
MW: Zaun has dropped a couple, but he still has a long way to go to catch The Captain. Wow, my favourites? That’d be a long list.
- Warren OwenMike - I’m sure Ken Griffey Junior is a nice guy but your praise of him seems way over the top. If you had a similar conversation with your mail man would you be equally impressed? Probably not. Mike - I’m glad you met a new friend. It is thrilling to read that a superstar MLB future Hall of Famer descended from his cloud to talk to a mere mortal.
MW: I wouldn’t call him a friend at all. It’s not about a Hall of Famer deigning to talk to me, it’s all relative.
- DanielAnother one run loss in extra innings. Is this becoming another Blue Jay record this year along with GIDPs? It has to be a psychological as long as performance related because I don’t remember a team losing so many extra inning games at home.
Blaming Overbay is oversimplified. The circumstances of these one run losses have a pattern that include the entire team. Quite franky, Overbay is not the only Jay that does the GIDP thing. Also, the bases were loaded and there were no out…..how many times has the team come up short in that situation. Halladay did an OK job given the circumstances ( his head injury) but those runs still were part of the loss. It wasn’t as if he gave up 1 run or 2 runs and that’s what makes the loss more painful. Because the Jays scored runs but just came up a little short.
Last but not least, are the Rays a legitimate playoff contender? They are one game behind the Red Sox and 10 games ahead of the Jays. The Rays are in the thick of things, while these one run, late at home losses and GIDPS have the Jays in the background. BTW, the 89 Jays didn’t have the 2008 Red Sox ,Yankees,Rays and Wild Card teams to contend with . That makes the Jays’ task almost insurmontable. If Cito turns this ship around, it would be more impressive than 89 because of the hole the Jays are in, but also because of the competition.
MW: I don’t think the Rays are a legitimate playoff contender yet.
- jayMike,
It was a painful loss to say the least, especially when you strand the bases loaded with no outs. On a positive note, BJ looked very sharp (although it wasn’t in a save situation). My main reason for writing is to tell you how much I envy the fact that you got to spend some time last night with Ken Griffey Jr. I am a huge Griffey fan and I must admit he is my hands down all-time favourite baseball player. Unlike many other athletes, Griffey seems like a class act who just goes about his business in a professional manner and does nothing but produce huge numbers. Over the span of his 20 year career he’s never once been involved in any on/off the field controversy, which is refreshing to say the least. Pat Tabler and Rod Black were mentioning last night how his sweet swing hasn’t changed in the last 20 years. It looks the same as it did when he took his first at bat. Away from baseball he seems like a very family-oriented person as well, which is great to see. Based on what you said last night on Jays Talk, it seems like he’s really proud of his kids and he’s a really down-to-earth guy (despite his superstar status). I would’ve given my eye teeth to have traded places with you for just 5 minutes Mike. I hope [although it looks doubtful] that he gets the opportunity to win a World Series ring before his illustrious Hall of Fame career is over. It would definitely have to happen somewhere other than Cincinnati. Mike, that must’ve been one of your top 5 baseball moments I’m sure….I’m green with envy right now!!!
MW: I don’t know if it was one of my top 5 baseball moments. It was definitely one of my top 5 conversations with a pro athlete.
- BernardI couldn’t agree more about Brian Wolfe. That was painful. Now that they are hitting a little better it would be so nice to see Aaron Hill in the #2 spot right now. I imagine Eckstein is on the block now. Can they get anyone of immediate use for him? Have you heard any rumours about it? Alex Rios looks better at the plate but almost every game he does something that makes me wonder if he is the All Star I believed he was (e.g. baserunning errors). Tonight he charged and short hopped the hard hit ball into right. It looked like a gamble that paid off but when the ball was going into his glove he turned his head away like he was afraid of the ball. It wasn’t subtle either. I have seen him do that more than once now. If he missed that ball everyone would have noticed. If he continues to look away he will miss some. What is he being paid to catch baseballs?
MW: I don’t think he looked away because he was afraid of the ball, he wanted to throw to first, I think. He’s not being paid to catch baseballs, he’s being paid to hit them. I don’t think Eckstein is on the block just yet - a lot of people are jumping the gun with that. I think we’ll see him in the line-up tonight.
- The ChadHi Mike,
I have a question… If a batter has a 3-0 count do they EVER swing at the next pitch? Obviously the pitcher needs the next pitch to be a strike but more often than not it seems the pitcher throws straight down the middle which (to me) looks like the perfect pitch to hit. It happened tonight and the batter had no intention to swing the bat at all. I would have thought that’s the time you know what pitch is going to come next?
I thought the game (compared to the last few weeks) was actually a fun game to watch, a few home runs, hits, they looked way better.
Johnny
MW: Batters swing at 3-0 pitches all the time.
- JohnnyIn response to the idea that Overbay is killing the team by hitting into double plays these people must not look at the person who is second in the AL in double plays, Vladimir Guerrero.
Overbay has hit into 15 double plays in 104 PAs with a runner on first, this is once every 6.93 times he’s up in that situation. Vlad has hit into 13 double plays in 91 PAs with a runner on first, that’s once every 7 times.
I doubt that Angels fans want to sit Vlad just because he’s hitting into so many double plays and say that his 349 OBP and 502 SLG don’t matter with all those double plays.
- JasonMike I follow the Jays and listen to your postgame show often. I like your interaction and defense of the team. However, if your stats analyses of this team is true they wouldn’t be where they are. Or would they? Their problem as exemplified by Overbay is not that the players are below average. The problem is that no on on this team is well above average. Wells is a good player at times but he is not an A level superstar nor do I think he will be anymore. Until this team gets real A level everyday players they can’t hope to contend. Not with the Big Boys.
MW: I disagree. The Big Boys can’t pitch like the Jays do, nor can they defend the same way.
- JoeOh my. The Jays now 11 games back, 10 back of the wild card, behind what, 10 teams?
Yet reading the hype around this team it sounds like they’re a front runner?
Adam Lind hits a home run and he’s suddenly a superstar?
Roy Haliday is barely about .500, yet he’s the best pitcher in baseball?
They Jays score some runs finally, and its all attributed to Citos’ new philosophy? After two games?
Are Toronto baseball fans that dumb to buy into all that malarky?
MW: Yeah, Roy Halladay is nothing but a .500 pitcher. I don’t know anyone who is insinuating that this team is a front-runner.
- Rick GRaceWondering if you could assess Cito’s management of his pitching staff over his career. Has he been considered good at this aspect of managing a baseball team, or not? I was not around during his first go-around and would like to know what one can expect from him going forward, especially given that he comes from the hitting coach side of the game. Thanks!
MW: He was a pitcher when his career started, so he knows a bit about the goings-on on the mound, and had to delve into that side early in his managerial career when Al Widmar took ill. It’s tough to say how good a handler of pitchers he was, since he had such a great bullpen in the early years, but he used it to its best effect. He is loyal, without question.
- VavaAnother one of those games that get filed by Blue Jay fans as should have won, but lost. There seems to be alot going into that bin this year.
For Saturday, do you think they are leaning towards Parrish over Purcey for the callup?
Hope for a bounceback tonight against a tough pitcher. Sure would be nice to win a series this month. Litsch needs to pick up a W as well.
Hope all is well Mike. I like the shoot the first one philosophy of Griffey when it comes to dealing with my little girl.
MW: They were down 5-0 in the 3rd inning, how is that a “should have won”? I think they’re leaning towards Parrish.
- Aaron KerFunny Bruce a rookie comes up against a nasty left hander, gets down 0 and 2, yet is good and smart enough to serve a ball into left for a SF. We get 2 vets in the same position with none out and they can deliver anything but a soft infield fly and a pitcher to catcher DP. The Jays have an opportunity to do something good after 2 convincing wins, but same old Jays they stumble just when you start to believe again.
As far as Overbay goes yes he stinks, look at stats all you want, I guess you consider that 2 out 2 run Homer vs. the Brewers last week down by 6 a good thing. How about when we need it, the guy is a disgrace for a major leaguer, he looks overmatched atleast 3 times a game. Lets face it while he and Rolen occupy the two corners this team ain’t going anywhere, they get hits with 2 outs and nobody on meaningless!
MW: That’s funny.
- tonyMMJP constantly reminds us that he is “responsible” for the team as stands. But then he fires everyone else. How many managers and coaches have they gone through in the last 7 years? And I would like to point out he always qualifies his statements by saying that he is responsible for the team “under-performing”. Talk about double-talk. Is this his code for telling us that he is willing to take responsibility for building a potentially winning team but that it is the players/managers/coaches fault for not performing and actually not winning? Seems to me JP is doing everything but owning up to
his responsibilities. In both words and in actions. Just another example of why this guy and his approach to building a winning/competitive baseball has been nothing but an abject failure in Toronto.
MW: He has been far, far from an abject failure.
- reneQuick question. Why is it that you are so adamant that the Rays won’t be in contention for a wild card spot and at the same time ridiculing those have given up on the Jays’ playoff hopes? You seem fairly confident that a team that is currently 46-31, a game behind 1st place in the AL East and would be atop the Wild Card standings, has no shot at the playoffs.
I think this is merely a sour-grapes where it seems unfathomable that a petty franchise like the Rays can actually be performing at this level and putting the Jays (and a whole lot of other organizations) to shame.
They’re finding ways to get it done and to simply dismiss this team without any basis rather than perhaps a subjective view much of us have of the franchise, is not in line with the manner in which you expect callers and fans to back up opinions with stone cold facts and figures.
And glad to hear Griffey is a standup guy. I think sometimes athletes want a bit of normalcy in their lives as I could only imagine how day to day traveling and being in the spotlight this much can affect them mentally. Casual conversations without a notepad or voice recorder should be an escape.
MW: You could think my stance on the Rays is sour grapes, but if you look back, you’ll realize that I have said they weren’t a playoff team from the get-go, regardless of how their first half has gone. I have also given the reasons for my opinion many times, but I’m glad to hear you think that I’m just throwing things out there with no basis for it.
- RagzMike,
I try to listen everynight to the post game, and you consistently use stats to back your case for or against a player. The trouble is, as all are aware, stats are as misleading as we want them to be.
While I am certainly not an Overbay detractor, I do think it is quite convenient to make a case for him against other players on this team as they are posting numbers which may rival the worst offensive teams in 100 years of baseball history.
The truth is, he is an average player and a below average first baseman in the league (offensive statistics). You made the case last night he was better than average in the league, however that stat takes into account all players who are not regulars, who have struggled and are since demoted, etc.
Wherever you get these stats from (and so quickly always impresses me), please look up and compare him to players with as many games played, and to starting first basemen, then and I suspect (and may be wrong) as a starting major leaguer he is below average this year.
That being said, he is a number 7 hitter, a terrific defender and historically has had power to the gaps and beyond and people need to lay off of him.
cheers,
MW: Of the 12 AL first baseman with over 200 plate appearances this season, Overbay ranks 3rd in on-base percentage, 5th in batting average and 8th in slugging percentage.
- chrisI’ll try to keep this concise. Plan for keeping the jays as good a team if not better next year. All this rests on the hope that the offense can’t be this bad two years in a row:
1) Trade Aj for viable 4/5 type pitcher. We have doc, Dustin, Marcum so we the hole will be in the bottom two slots when AJ leaves. Maybe we can get a litsch type with a slightly better stuff. I would also be fine with a veteran signed to good contract. Result? very solid staff.
2) Make a package around rios or lind to get a young major league ready shortstop. I know we’re not going to get hanley ramirez. That said if we can get a guy who can play defense with some offensive upside. It would be awesome if he had the potential to be a lead off hitter. Result? Shortstop situation resolved for the next few years. Also i can’t think of a better mentor than McDonald
3) take the money from Aj And thomas’ departed contracts and make a run at the best LF bat available. obviously if we trade rios we have a defensive minus in right with whoever plays there. I can live that.
Love to hear your thoughts Mike. i know the season isn’t over but it certainly is an uphill climb. if we have to opportunity to be better next year i’d be fine with losing aj this year and living with stairs/inglett/stewart in the LF.
One last point:
I am the best bat boy the jays never hired.
MW: I’m sure you are. I don’t think a team would subtract from its major-league pitching staff in order to add Burnett, and I don’t want to give up the power bats of Lind and Rios for a shortstop to fill in for a couple of years until Justin Jackson is ready, unless you can get a REALLY good, young guy. I’m with you on making a run at a big bat with all the off-season money.
- jeremyHey Mike, long time listener, recent convert to the Blog…I think your chat with Griffey was so good because it sounds like he was listening and talking with you, not just talking at you. In a way, much like the better calls that you get on the post game show, people that listen, state their opinions/observations, and listen to your replies (btw, why do people feel they have to make a comment, ask a question, then “hang up and listen”?) You do a super job of keeping people engaged, really good radio…like many, I envy your job, but I know there’s lots of uneviable stuff involved as well…good to hear that Griffey “took you away” for a brief time…I appreciate the work that you and your team provide us with, Thanks again Mike…
Tim
Guelph
MW: Thanks, Tim!
- Tim CallanCan’t really say Lyle Overbay is Mr. Clutch can we? or Scott Rolen for that matter - say wasn’t he supposed to be the best Jay ever?
MW: You can’t say anyone on this team is Mr. Clutch.
- JeremyHi Mike,
Question for you. What are your thoughts on instead of pitching to Jay Bruce in the 10th, giving him an intentional walk and pitching to Dunn. The theory would be that your odds that Bruce makes contact would be higher then Dunn making contact (he did strike out in the 10th). Him striking out would eliminate the sacrifice, and make the chance of walking away from the 10th still tied.
Thanks1
MW: The question is, do you pitch to Bruce and Dunn with two on and one out, or do you pitch to Dunn and Griffey with the bases loaded?
- SeanFar more upsetting than Overbay’s broken-bat double play (has Louisville changed where they get their lumber from? Wow there are a lot of broken bats) was Rios’ failure to run out what he either thought was a homerun or a flyout. Had he shown any hustle, he might have ended up on third instead of 2nd and the Jays would have had a chance to take the lead on the fly-ball out that followed.
MW: I don’t know if Rios had a reasonable shot at third on the fly ball off the wall in the third inning. Generally, conservative baserunning is the call there, because you don’t want to make the first out at third base. I wasn’t watching him run, so I don’t know if he jogged it or not (though I’d suspect, given his history, that he did), but that’s a tough triple regardless.
- Ryan KMike,
I have always like the Value over Replacement Player - The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.
Mr. Overbay’s stands at 9.4, behind lovely 1st basemen as Sean Casey, Casey Kotchman, Joey Votto, Youkilis and James Loney, not to mention players clearly out of Overbay’s league. He is below his peers and don’t give this junk about position not mattering.
Is Overbay a good hitter? yes
Is Overbay killing the Jays offense? no
Does Overbay deserve to be above comparison with the rest of his peers? no
Does Overbay compare favourability with them? no Would you like to see more out of him? yes
Is it a position that the jays should think about upgrading? I dont see why not.
MW: I like your question-answering style! I believe, by the way, that the Jays should always be thinking about upgrading every position.
- JWMike, I just wanted to share something with you in regards to hitters and hitting coaches. When Joey Votto was invited to a workout camp in front of some big league scouts they had him take some BP.(He was about 17 or 18) The hitting coach was there telling him that he wanted five balls hit to left field, five to centre and then five to right. Votto responded by saying “I don’t hit that way coach.” Now obviously they were quite upset and they insisted that he do it the way he was told. Votto was insistent that he doesn’t hit that way. So they let him take BP and after he had pulled the first 6 balls over the right field fence the coach just said “Okay, you can hit any way you want.”
- CPThat just shows you that if you’re a great hitter and you know what works for you then you don’t need a hitting coach to tell you how to hit in BP. Sure if you’re struggling then a hitting coach can be of some help for sure but I don’t think that one approach works for an entire lineup. I believe that if you’re leading off then you should try an take more pitches and work the count but if you’re a slugger with guys on base you need to be more aggressive. Different approaches work better for different hitters. That’s why I agree with you that Denbo couldnt(or shouldnt) have had THAT much of an impact on the hitters. They had all had success before and they should have been able to tell him that his way doesn’t work for them.
Mike,
I heard some of the post-game comments last night. I had just finished playing ball and got in my car to hear about how well Carlsson had pitched by getting his two outs and only giving up a fly ball and a ground out….I heard this from you and Jerry at the end of his effort. Sometime later you both let the listener in on the fact that the fly ball was also the game winning Sac Fly. Small little detail but exactly what the young Bruce went to the plate for. Exactly what any hitter should be trying for with one out and the winning run at third. He went there meaning to hit a fly ball to the outfield so that his man at third would score. Mission accomplished and, therefore, mission failed on the other side. Sorry, rookies, but the pitcher was looking for a K, a pop out or any kind of out that would equate to the run not scoring. Anything else was to be considered less than what was needed.
Is it possible that we could forget how inept our own team is (and was last night in the 7th EEEEK!!!!!!!) at getting that mere fly ball to the outfield when we report on how the other team routinely did get the execution down?
MW: Rookies?
- BsterAlso, on the Juinor front. I have often heard that Griffey will speak about his kids with anyone who will take the time to listen and care. He loves HIS kids a whole lot…or at least he loves speaking of HIS kids a whole lot. He has exhausted his own team, press, close fans, so he is quite happy to have a fresh round of ears to listen to him as he speaks about HIS kids.
It is quite endearing to the fresh ears at first. Soon, the wise ones figure out that he is still speaking of an extension of himself and is only engaged to speak of others when it is in the form of advice. Your story fits under both blankets.
MW: Why would he talk to me about my kids? He doesn’t know my kids. It seems to me to be quite a leap to say that someone being proud of his/her children, grandchildren, whatever, is so because s/he is arrogant and self-centred.
- BsterGreat story about Griffey.
What’s your take on Inglett? He has hit for average everywhere he has been (including a .407 clip in Syracuse this year). It looks like he never got a chance with Cleveland and rotted in the minor leagues. A nice pick-up by JP and not the “roster fodder” as suggested by some.
MW: He has certainly hit for average everywhere he’s been, and has really impressed me in spurts - though for some reason, only when the Jays are losing. He hit .200/.259/.360 in May when they were going 20-10, and has hit .360/.435/.533 the rest of the time. I want to see more, but so far, so good. And hey, Sunday is his 30th birthday.
- Jim BMike, who made the decision to call up Lind? Because if it was Cito than J.P looks a little ridiculous the way Lind is playing (granted it’s only been a few days).
MW: J.P. makes those decisions. At least, I think he still does.
- Chris JonesHey Mike
I have a little behind the scenes question. During the blue jays broadcasts when Alan is doing the innings, it seems like you are involved alot more and talking. When Jerry is doing the innings, you are silent and even Alan isn’t talking as much. Is this just my imigination or is it designed this way?
MW: It’s neither your imagination nor is it designed this way. It’s just the way things tend to shake out.
- JonI’m not going to criticize Lyle because he’s one of the more consistent guys in the lineup but my goodness it seems the guy comes up small in just about every big moment this season!
I can understand why he was hammered on the JaysTalk last night and I agree with you it’s a bit unfair but on the other hand when was the last time Lyle came through in a “clutch” situation?
(not trying to start anything. Just an honest question)
MW: Last time Lyle came through in a clutch situation? That depends on a lot of definitions, but I’ll see what I can find. How about this? The last time Lyle was actually up in a clutch situation was in the 6th inning on Sunday, with two on and two out in a 4-4 tie. He hit a two-run double. That’d be the last time he came through in the clutch. So he’s 1 for his last 2.
- Chris F.Mike,
Is Joe Inglett an everyday MLB 2nd baseman?
Obviously, there isn’t room on this team with the signing of Aaron Hill at the beginning of the season (or is there) but with his solid defense, versatility, and emerging bat, do you think he would be attractive for other teams?
As well, it looks like Cito has decided on Scoot for his everyday shortstop. Do we really need 3 SS up with the big club? Does this make Eckstein potential trade bait at the deadline?
Thanks as always
MW: I’ve already addressed the Eckstein thing a lot. As for Inglett, a 30 year-old who has never played even half a season in the bigs, and has never been an everyday player but who has had 100 good at-bats doesn’t bring anything back on the trade market.
- Andrew NHi Mike
- marioAnother tough loss.Iseem to repeat that to often.I understand why people are getting on Overbay.It’s frustrating to see a batter with his talent hit into so many double plays.It truly seems that he has a black cloud hanging over him so far this year when it comes to hitting into double plays.I thought Doc had Philips struck out twice but the 2 umps that mattered didn’t agree with me.Also Stairs seems to be in a funk.He had a couple of at bats yesterday in which he let a couple of fastballs go by.If people want to put blame on Overbay they can easily put some on Stairs also.I guess you can go right down the lineup if you want to assess blame.I like to think you win as a team and lose as a team.It is going to be tough tonight against Volquez hopefully Litsh can keep us in the game.With how bad the season has gone we are only 4 games under .500with some luck we still might have a shot.
mario
Go Jays!!!
Thank you very much for your Ken Jr. story! I hope we will be able to hear it on a broadcast or was it off the record?
My brother and I are attending the game today to not only see the Jays but hopefully see Ken Jr hit a home run. I’m excited about seeing a for sure Hall of Famer! Any tips on where we can snap a cool photo of him after the game tonight?
KK
P.S. Our seats are right above you. So if you hear a Wilner chant…
MW: You won’t be able to find him after the game, the Reds are more than likely going straight to the airport. The post-interview conversation with Junior wasn’t off the record, but there were no recording devices involved.
- karim kanjiGregJP - Wednesday, June 25 2008 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#188044) #
OK. I think I’m losing it. A certain Jays’ blogger thinks that Rios/Lind/Zaun for Crawford/Upton is “close” (a fair deal) I think it’s laughably lopsided and the Rays wouldn’t consider it even for a millisecond..
Which opinion is closer to reality?
Magpie - Thursday, June 26 2008 @ 02:33 AM EDT (#188052) #
Which opinion is closer to reality?
Oh, maybe a millisecond. Just long enough to be sure they heard it correctly. Then, you know, comes the giggling. And then the laughter. And then the hysteria, and the falling on the floor and rolling around.
MW: You’re now quoting comments from other commenters on other blogs in order to discredit me? That’s brilliant!
- GregJPHi Mike
My granddaughter (she’s 5) is coming to visit and I’d like to take her to a Jays game. I assume Sat. is better than Fri. night? Is there a best area for some one her age?
MW: There’s a kids zone on the 200 level. Saturday would be good, because it’s a Jr. Jays day, so there’s all kinds of stuff going on outside before the game.
- Larry SiposHey Mike,
Funny the Jays once had an all avg/OBP no (or little) power fist baseman a long time ago. Hmmm what was his name again? … … Oh that’s right John Olerud! Just goes to show you don’t need a masher at first if the rest of the team can.
Anyway I did want to make a comment about Lyle though. It does seem to me that Lyle has lost a little bit of power and possibly that the injured wrist is still hampering him. To whit (or is it wit)
Lyle has just 14 doubles this season putting him on pace to be 10 doubles short of his career avg and one of his worst years in terms of doubles in his career.
But I think the more telling number is his Ground ball to Fly ball ratio. He has a 1.82 GB/FB ratio this year which is 0.2 higher than his career of 1.62. I can’t do the math right now but I think that’s about 40 more balls put in play on the ground over 200 hits.
Lyle strikes me as the kind of batter who needs to lift the ball over the infielders heads and drive it to left centre and right centre (and in between). If I recall correctly most of a batters power comes from their bottom hand right? Which is the hand that Lyle injured.
So do you think his wrist injury has sapped Lyle of some of his power?
MW: Not the wrist injury, because he broke his hand, but I think it does still bother him from time-to-time, though not a lot.
- JohnHi Mike!
I don’t understand all the Overhate. The WHOLE TEAM has been lacking at the plate this year in all situations!
Do you know if Cito Gaston is going to be the new ‘Insider’ on Wednesday mornings at 8:10am on Fan 590?
I enjoyed listening to Gibby in that slot, and would love to hear Cito’s thoughts on the team on a regular basis.
Also, I was wondering on average, how many comments get left here, but do not get published on the site due to inappropriate content.
Aneez
PS - I love The ECKS Factor! That little guy is so fun to watch on the diamond!
MW: I’d say, on average, one out of every 300 comments or so doesn’t get published.
- AneezHi Mike,
I meant to ask in my last post…
Would it make sense to have Overbay in the lead off spot?
Having someone with his OBP would surely be an advantage, and it would also ensure that he has the opportunity to hit in one less double-play per game (which everyone seems to think is an issue).
Aneez
MW: I think he’d be a great fit in the leadoff spot.
- AneezThese are the all-time leaders in GIDP. I think there are some pretty decent players on this list. Longevity plays into this, but it just means that there are usually guys on base when they come to the plate, just as in Lyle’s case.
1. Ivan Rodriguez 279
2. Mike Piazza 229
3. Manny Ramirez 223
4. Frank Thomas 221
5. Jeff Kent 220
6. Royce Clayton 218
7. Gary Sheffield 213
8. Luis Gonzalez 206
Vladimir Guerrero 206
10. Sammy Sosa 202
11. Paul Konerko 201
12. Edgar Renteria 200
13. Chipper Jones 199
14. Brad Ausmus 197
15. Moises Alou 195
16. Miguel Tejada 192
17. Omar Vizquel 189
18. Magglio Ordonez 184
19. Ken Griffey 183
20. Derek Jeter 181
MW: Not Derek Jeter!!!!!!
- BrettMike, I agree with you that a week ago with the Jays down 5-zip, the feeling would be that the game is over. My questions is whether or not you still believe the Leardership has little to do good performance. I’ve heard you say before that the players are professional hitters and should do just that — hit! It seems you never bought the argument that Leadership, mind-set, accountability, etc. had much to do with it. I can see both sides of the argument, but am curious if your thoughts have changed any?
MW: They haven’t, really.
- SandyMike, just curious..do you collect sports memorabilia? If so, what are some of the “cooler” items you own?
MW: I’m not a big collector.
- BernardMike, let’s see how Overbay ranks among player who plaY 1B in the big leagues:
34th in HR(6)
18th in R (36)
29th in RBI (30)
3th in BB (45)
20th most in KO (56)
17th in avg (.2685)
I don’t know why you always come up with his OPS stat. His OPS is high only because he is among the best to get BB, but look at his batting average… His job is not to get on base, but to drive-in runs…. He is not a lead-off man!
If his OPS is so high, why not make him a lead-off man?
Sorry, but you are defending an overrated 1B.
MW: I don’t think he’s overrated at all, everyone seems to think he’s awful. Your numbers are wrong, by the way (of course). I don’t know where you got them, but looking at the numbers of everyone who has played any first base at all this season (including guys like David Ortiz, Eric Hinske, John Bowker, Nick Swisher, Russ Branyan and Mark Teahen, who are most assuredly NOT first basemen), Overbay is tied for 29th in HR, tied for 15th in R, tied for 24th in RBI, tied for 3rd in BB, tied for 11th in strikeouts (I’m assuming that’s what you meant by KO), and 14th in batting average. So you were only right about the walks.
- AxelIm not gonna lie. Im an Inglett fan..could it just be that Joe has been one of those guys that never got a fair shake? that since he doesnt do anything particularly well but does many things quite well..that he is the exact type of player that is undervalued? to say minimize someone by saying they “have never been an everday player” can be just as big an indictment on talent evaluators/team management than on the player. its a self fulfilling prophecy…’X” isnt an everyday player so ‘X” isnt gonna get a fair shot…well “X” might not be an everyday playe because he’s never been given a fair shot. in fact..eckstein is the righthanded inglet..he just happened to be in a positive situation where he ended up getting a foothold..he coudl very easily have become inglett.
here are joes Career MLB stats
306 at bats..
avg obp slg
.301 .355 .428
and those numbers are all better vs. right handers. i dont know..but those are pretty good numbers for a two bagger. 306 at bats isnt a ton..but its not a tiny sample.and the fact that its through mutliple years shows that he’s consistent.
some guys just never get a shot..i think joe might be getting his now..and so far so good. im not expecting him to hit 300 but if he can hit a good 280 with a 350 obp.decent defense…speed..he becomes a guy that is more productive than half the guys on this team.including those in power positions. i say GOOOO JOE
Hill’s concusion problems are scary. unfortunately there is no guarantee the guy ever recovers although i wish him the best. some people just dont come back from them..inglett could be a solid stop gap until the new Zealandear comes along.
MW: 306 at-bats over three years is, in fact, a tiny sample. But you may be right. Inglett may just be one of those guys who has never gotten a shot for no other reason than he got labelled undeservedly, it happens all the time. It’s certainly fun to watch him take advantage of this opportunity.
- sammy jalalzaiMike,
“I don’t think the Rays are legitamate playoff contenders YET”. When they are Mike, the Guru of Baseball let us know. Your word means so much, your so objective. When they do, make sure to tell the listeners how you predicted it. You definitley have an agenda Mike. Let us all know what is. Listening to you is like watching a train wreck. You just can’t believe what your hearing.
MW: Why are you even here? And don’t quote me and then make spelling mistakes inside the quote.
- brunoHey Mike
I’m working tonight, so i can’t phone in, but i will be listening to the post game talk with Jp tonight. Could you do me a favour? He doesn’t want Dunn or Bonds, and i’m starting to believe JP doesn’t think we are desparate for a big stick in the middle of the line-up. Could you ask him if he even acknowledges that the 3/4 spots in our batting order is a problem?
Don’t worry about this one going extra innings, as i think Volquez is going to mow down the entire lineup in stunning fashion, and Dunn will go deep on Litsch a few times.
Thanks in advance Mike.
MW: Good prediction.
- rickInglett’s AAA numbers are pretty decent too, and that’s over 876 AB.
.290/.351/.408
MW: Yes, but those are AAA numbers. And they’re just decent.
- AlexYikes, Royce Clayton? Was he really the Jays’ starting SS for the first half of last season, or was I just having a very bad dream?
MW: No, you were awake.
- JohnJust to chime in on the Overbay pros and cons, I note that out of all the comments posted in the last couple of days there is only one commendation of his outstanding defense (and in fact I believe I read one comment in yesterday’s blog with the opposite opinion).
I believe going into yesterday’s game the Jays were ranked fourth in the AL defensively, with only 41 errors. In my opinion, a good share of this high standing is the result of Lyle’s play at first — he may not be the absolute best at the position, but in my opinion he is among the top three or four, saving the infielders countless throwing errors all year long.
Couple this with his good offensive stats (good, not brilliant), and you have an excellent all-round first baseman, one for which I would be hard-pressed to find an “upgrade”.
- NormIn reference to my earlier question (post #37), I haven’t heard your explanation as to why the Rays aren’t playoff contenders. I try keeping up with the blogs and noticed you dismissing their playoff chances and these posts didn’t have any reasoning to them. Just simply, “The Rays won’t be playoff contenders”.
So do you have objective reasons to point to a second half collapse? Their starting pitching keeps them in games; they’re scoring a descent amount of runs and have the sixth best bullpen ERA in the majors with a proven closer in Percival.
Is inexperience the key? I have no clue. But whatever it is, I know you’re a numbers guy and after 80 games, I don’t know what more else you need. I wouldn’t care much if it weren’t for the fact that you still think the Jays still have a good shot at making the playoffs. I have a hard time grasping this view.
Rays (after their win this afternoon, with Garza pitching a 1 hitter) are 0.5 game back from the AL East lead while the Jays are 11 games back.
I’m assuming you would say that the Jays have a better chance at making the post-season than the Rays?
Well whatever. I respect your passion for the game but impartiality is definitely not in the books when you speak of the mighty Jays or their competition.
MW: I’d have to be crazy to think that the Jays have a better chance of making the playoffs than Tampa as things currently stand. But if I’m saying the Jays’ season isn’t over and that Tampa won’t make the playoffs, I can see where you’re going. I believe that it will be extraordinarily difficult for the Jays to make the playoffs, given the hole they have dug themselves, and I don’t think the Rays have the horses to sustain this type of production. I have gone into greater detail about them a bunch of times.
- Ragz“Five of Overbay’s DPs have come with the Jays in the lead, though, and another seven have come in games in which his teammates combined to go 6-for-56 (.107) with runners in scoring position.”
Oh come on Mike, this is blatant manipulation. The way his teammates hit w/RISP during those games does not alter the importance of those GIDP’s. There’s nothing technically wrong with what you said, but it’s pretty slanted. The last paragraph pretty much fixes what you said in the first place, but I still think the way it was worded gives the impression of bias.
Anywho, Overbay’s been fine against righties, but I have no clue why they haven’t found a better option against lefties at this point. He’s been terrible against them. He’s also started more games batting 6th than all of the positions you stated combined. I’d say 6th is generally a decent RBI spot, but on this team it hardly seems to matter.
Ginley’s been pretty bad of late. Considering he wasn’t viewed as much of a commodity before his hot start, I doubt he has much(if any) value.
The Jays have put the ball in play 4 times in 83 PA’s with a 3-0 count. Now, they may have swung and missed a couple of times, but I’d guess not more than twice. It does happen, but very infrequently.
To Jimmy in 39: That last line was great.
Finally, I’m not sure why that Yankees offensive productive thing is so damning to Denbo, as the lineups were completely different year to year. Drawing any conclusions from that without looking at player to player performance is pretty silly and careless.
Counting only the guys with a full season of PA’s who could be considered “in the middle” of their careers and who formed the heart of the Yanks lineup for a number of years(Posada, Tino, Bernie, Jeter), the combined OPS+ of the 4 was 496 in 2000, 491 in 2001, and 476 in 2002. Most of the other players were either just starting their career, just ending it, or were only part time players so I didn’t include them. If you do, you’ll find a couple that hurt the case for Denbo(Justice, maybe Soriano), and a couple that help the case(O’Neill, Brosius). That 2001 Yankees lineup had poorer bench production, and a declining corps. Either way, no matter what stats you throw at this, you’re not going to come to a good conclusion about Denbo’s effect, because we simply don’t know enough. There’s too many factors.
MW: There are indeed too many factors, it’s true, but everything is a piece of the puzzle. As for the Overbay DP thing, how can you say that the incompetence of his teammates with RISP in those games doesn’t change the importance of those double plays? If one or two of them had been able to get a hit, those games would have been very different.
- Dan WONE NIGHT IN BANGKOK????
You’ve really upset my wife mentioning ‘Come on Eileen’ She’s Scottish, her name is Aileen, and she was at school when Dexys Midnight Runners where strutting their stuff, we can only imagine the trauma!
You sounded in such a good mood last night, must have been time spent with Junior. Just on the off chance, he didn’t happen to give you a signed Baseball, made out to ‘Phil my best mate’ did he?
Do you ever get signed stuff from players?
It wasn’t that long ago people were saying Scoots was not an everyday player, and there would be a noticeable drop off in production if he played everyday (when Rolen was on the DL)
Now people are saying he is a possible cure to this teams ills.
Finally Mike, a tough one for you, were the season to finish today, who would you suggest would be our position player of the year?
Thanks as always, during the most pull your hair out frustrating times, you have made those times bareable
MW: I don’t ever get signed stuff from players, that’d be unprofessional. The Jays position player of the year? Yikes. How about Joe Inglett? And please, please, keep your clothes on when listening to The JaysTalk.
- ukJayI’m wondering Mike did Lyle Overbay take some of these guys lunch money or something??
Take care.
- Troyhey Rick GRace to say halliday is a .500 pitcher is ignorant of the fact that he has at least 3 complete games that went for losses because the team could not score.
- kevinHey Wilner if Jeter was a jay would you suck up to him like your do every other Jay?
MW: My do?
- chicoMike,
Please join me in wishing Mr. Derek Sanderson Jeter a Happy 34th Birthday!!
MW: Happy Birthday, Hall of Famer!
- BernardJP Riccardi has done nothing in Toronto but turn a .500 team into a .500 team. What else should be the measuring stick. If you think he has not failed as a GM could you be so kind as to point out why you take this position.
MW: Go back and re-read the last six months worth of posts.
- KDMike
To follow up my question on Alex Anthopolous, I appreciate it takes smarts, etc., to be in that position, but when working for a team that isn’t exactly lighting it up, and your GM seems to have many detractors throughout baseball, how does he get noticed as “up and coming”? Did he sign some great undiscovered prospect? What? I’m curious because if JP’s tenure is up, he could be the Jay’s next GM but we know next to nothing about him.
MW: He won’t be the Jays’ next GM, but he might be the one after. Among his credits, he came up with the innovative “floating options” in Aaron Hill’s contract.
- DanOK, enough about Overbay. He’s just one under-performing cog on a wheel that’s out of alignment altogether. We agree, what we need is a mondo DH. If we get one, then I’ve a suspicion that Wells all of a sudden starts to hit a lot better. And if Wells hits better, Rios will hit better in front of him.
So who do we go after? Who do we have a chance of getting? And will we be able to get him in time to not finish last in all offensive categories?
MW: They’re not going to go after anyone right now.
- reyesMike, I know it is really soon to be discussing this, but do you know what the Jays have planned, as far as their catchers in their system go? I know you can never have enough quality players, but assuming everyone stays healthy and progresses at a reasonable pace…
Robinzon Diaz & Curtis Thigpen could realistically be the catching tandem next season, with Jeroloman & Kratz in AAA and Arencibia & Liuzza in AA, but then what?
I’ve heard in the past that Thigpen & Diaz may be converted to different postions to make them utility types.
Is Jeroloman the “catcher of the future” or Arencibia? Do you see either of these two as long-term catchers that will produce on both sides of the ball?
Personally, I see Arencibia as the starter with Jeroloman and his ability to take walks and play good defence as the back-up.
MW: I agree with you. Long-term, if everyone stays healthy and continues to progress, Arencibia and Jeroloman is the combo.
- Jarrettm-dub,
comment #9
how many more years do we wait for everyone to just perform at their average career rate? i’ll set the over under 15 seasons
MW: I’ll take the under.
- slobberfaceI think folks need to consider the role pure dumb luck has played in the Jays struggles. In particular, Overbay and his GIDP (or the whole team and their GIDP). Mike, you’ve mentioned this a couple of times, and I agree.
All anyone can ask of anybody who steps into the batter’s box is to simply put the ball into play. As long as one can do that consistently, the law of averages says a few balls are going to sneak through for a base hit.
Well, that law has worked decidedly against the Jays the season. Hitting into alot of DP’s means they’re at least hitting the ball, just right at an infielder! C’mon, Lyle couldn’t line into an unassisted triple play again if he tried. Do you think he’s going to go up and purposely try to strike out just to avoid hitting into a DP. Nope.
And to those who say “well, he should be hitting a fly ball in those situations” - yeah, no problem. A lot easier said than done against major league pitching, folks .
I know it’s frustrating, but lay off the guy. He’s solid and plays great D at 1st, to boot.
John Butcher
PS. love the guy who brought up Olerud. Great point! Johnny O’s my all time fav. Lyle is pretty much the same player.
MW: Lyle’s got a ways to go to get to that level.
- John ButcherMike,
- MarkA pleasant surprise noted in this Cinci/Toronto 3 game series is that there are 2 black managers, Cito and Dusty directing their teams.I cannot recall in recent memory two black managers facing each other in a game.
Kudos to the teams in MLB hiring them!!
Hi Mike,
Two things…
Saw this comment about Bedard on MLB.com: “The Mariners might get more bang for their buck by dealing with the Blue Jays, the team the native Canadian Bedard really wants to play for.”
Think there’s any truth to that statement? Would the Jays be interested? What do you think it would take to land him?
Secondly, Stairs strikes me as a guy who could walk from the field into the dugout, career-wise. Assuming he’ll call it a career eventually, do you think he’ll go that route? Maybe segue into a job as a hitting coach or something?
MW: There’s no way to know whether Bedard really wants to play for the Jays, since he doesn’t talk to anybody, and I think Stairs might be happier walking away from the game for a while when he’s done playing.
- Rob_NSI have never been a fan of Lyle Overbay..Riccardi overhyped him from the start..Can’t understand why..In his last season with Milwaukee he hit .276 with 19HR..He is currently batting .268 with 6HR..This is pretty much what we should expect from him..His RISP is .211 add that to the fact that he has hit into 19 double plays and you can see why people are getting a little down on the guy..He had a terrible year last season and even with two good hands he looks lost..If you go through the lineup you will find most of Riccardi’s pick ups are doing about what’s expected..
Overbay .276 in Milwaukee and .268 TOR, Rolen in STL .265 TOR .269, forever overhyped Matt Stairs .244 DET, TOR .258 ..Vernon Wells and Rios are almost dead nuts at their career average..Luckily for Riccardi, Halladay and Mcgowan were here when he arrived..He was fortunate to have had all those injuries last year or we may not have seen Shawn Marcum..Even Hardy Astrom made a good save once and awhile..Same can be said for J.P Riccardi..
MW: He hasn’t hit into 19 double plays, he doesn’t look lost at all, and people aren’t getting “a little down on him”. Look at some numbers other than batting average to get a clearer picture of what the hitters are doing and can do.
- RayMike,
I don’t think that you can tune out a coach and expect your technique to improve or even stay constant. You really need another set of eyes to make sure your make the right changes to the right degree. To that point, I dont think you can tune out or hitting coach and expect to preform at your best.
MW: I respectfully disagree, and it happens all the time.
- JWMike,
With Marcum out and the Jays needing a replacement starter this week, how about going with a committee approach by the bullpen? Perhaps 2 innings out of each pitcher until the game gets late, and then the usual L/R situational decisions are made.
I bring this up because while the Jays are down a starter, they are also carrying an 8-man bullpen. And one would have to assume the club feels those 8 pitchers are superior to any of the pitchers currently at AAA, John Parrish included.
Clearly not a traditional move, but one I’d love to see tried. It might even allow for more R/L matching up throughout the game.
MW: It’s not going to happen, but it’s not an altogether terrible idea. I’m not with you on the “everyone in the bullpen is necessarily better than Parrish”, though.
- Kieran RoyKen Griffey Jr v Alex Rodriguez. Who is a better overall player?
If you choose A-Rod then do you think he’s the best player of all-time?
MW: Alex Rodriguez and no.
- Beburg ZehriI don’t expect the Jays to hit with their career average very soon. Gary Denbo messed up their stroke and mechanic.
- Angel galangDo you think that Derek Jeter is finished as above aversge hitter? Also, if you were Jays management, would you make a serious run at signing C.C Sabathia when A.J burnett opts out of his deal?
MW: I don’t think Jeter is finished, and I’d take a shot at Sabathia, sure, but I’d rather land some hitters and a lower-tier starting pitcher.
- andrewAlso, can tell me how Eric Hinske is turning around his career?
MW: He has had a good half-season. More often than not, Hinske has been a good hitter against right-handed pitching.
- andrewScott Rolen
MW: Huh?
- JerryMike,
I’m DH (ing) Crawford only on his days off, of course!
Today I was reading that even
Randy Winn (although 34 y/o)
is probably available from
the Giants, even though he’s
over .300 from the left and
from the right side. A perfect
DH candidate for the American League and can still field.
But, what about this broken bat issue? Let’s say Lyle’s
bat doesn’t break on the
GIDP (1-2-3) from Wednesday night. Does he single up the middle and RBI/score the run?
I don’t think anyone should
overreact when the team ties
up a ball game from 5 behind,
but still loses in the end.
Sometimes, bad luck wins out!
MW: Winn isn’t the perfect DH candidate by a long shot, those guys should have power. Lyle figured that if his bat hadn’t broken, the ball would still have been corraled by the shortstop.
- BRick in OakvilleHey Mike, quick question. What’s the average runs scored with the bases juiced & no outs.
Thanks,
MW: According to the run expectancy matrix, about 2.4.
- The RatMike J.P. did say those things why did you call me a lier?
MW: What things?
- dan MHey lookit! They’re hitting again tonight! That makes four games in a row they got some runs!!! So disregard my previous post….
…nah, it’ll take more than a few good outings to turn this team around. But it’s nice to see them do so well. And Litsch is pitching pretty good. So far, nice night.
But I still think we need a bona fide dh.
- reyesMW,
1st series win in a month. Let’s celebrate! What do you say, you, me, Anton and the wives? Saturday night? I’m buyin! Go Jays!
MW: You’re buying? Cool!
- kurt knostradamus mike, care to update all your predictions? you last prediction that tampa will not win 90 games is just plain stupid. they are on pace for 97 wins. please make more predictions. I would like to bet my farm.
MW: Am I imagining things, or has the season ended and no one told me? When did the Rays get their 90th win?
- bubbaM-Dub,
you’re outside in the shoolyard at recess, who do you take; Billingsley or McGowan?
MW: I haven’t seen Billingsley pitch enough, but what the heck, Dusty. I dig the chops.
- slobberfaceoverbay ? 2 out 2 rbi hit? back on the overbay bandwagon!!!!!!! there’s a lot of love Lyle!!!!!
MW: That’s two out of the last three times that Overbay has come through in a big situation.
- kurt kI would like to see them get Milton Bradley as their DH next year. That guy hit in Petco. He has issues, obviously, but that just means you can get him on a 1 yr contract. I would rather the Jays overspend on Milton (on money, not length of contract) than spend money on a middling pitcher ($5M say) to replace Burnett.
You can always try some minor league guy for that 5th spot (Parrish, Purcey, Cecil) and hope you strike gold, rather than waste money on known mediocre pitchers.
MW: I don’t want Milton Bradley here.
- Alex HuangMike hypethtical question.
if you have full control of the Blue Jays would you Trade A.J. or another starter for a bat and go with a four man pitching staff the rest of the season.
MW: No.
- dan MThanks Mike (forgot to do it earlier)
Chloe (granddaughter) is pumped.
Go jays
- Larry SiposHi Mike,
The other night you said that statistics are irrefutable. Have to remind you of Winston Chuchill’s quote that there are “lies, damned lies and statistics” although I don’t think he was referring to baseball.
A couple of comments. A few years ago on a visit back I went to as many games as possible and was blown away by Lyle Overbay. He was crushing the ball and even his outs were impressive. Is there any feeling that he still hasn’t recovered from his wrist injury?
Also, I read in Sports Illustrated this year an idea for the Jays to squeeze as many extra starts for Roy Halladay as they could, pitching him on 4 days rest whenever possible. It seemed like a nice idea on paper. What would be the reason for the Jays not doing this, other than to save his arm? It’s a good reason, but he seems exceptionally durable.
MW: If it were up to me, Roy Halladay would be starting every 5th day, regardless. Right now, that’s happening because of the injury to Shaun Marcum, and I hope it keeps up even after Marcum gets back. As far as Overbay goes, yes, the hand still bothers him every once in a while.
- RobTroy Glaus
MW: Again - huh?
- JerryMike,
It was great to hear JP appear and speak on Jays talk tonight.I was impressed with JP being open and frank with the callers despite the recent negativity surrounding him.
His desire to “listen and talk” to the fans will utimately earn their respect.
Keep doing what you are doing JP!!
- MarkTrouble in Syracuse?
David Purcey started tonight’s game, but left after 2 shutout innings — either because of an injury or perhaps a lengthy rain delay.
The other item to note is that after having three other pitchers lit up for 10 runs, Catcher Eric Kratz finished up the game on the mound, pitching a hitless scoreless 9th inning!
MW: According to the game story, Purcey left because of ineffectiveness - he threw 67 pitches in two innings, giving up three hits, walking two and throwing two wild pitches. Of course, it could have been injury that led to ineffectiveness, it’s worth keeping an eye on. There was no rain delay.
- NormMike,
I think dan M feels you called him a liar because you told him J.P. never said the things he said in this article:
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080624&content_id=2995181&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
Sorry for the humungous url, but I’m not sure how to use those tiny url thingies.
Brett, your list is the all-time active GIDP leaders list, although I think Piazza, Clayton and Sosa have since retired. Apropos of nothing and just for fun, here is the all-time GIDP leaders top 20 list:
1. Cal Ripken Jr. 350
2. Hank Aaron 328
3. Carl Yastrzemski 323
4. Dave Winfield 319
5. Eddie Murray 316
6. Jim Rice 315
7. Julio Franco 312
8. Harold Baines 298
9. Brooks Robinson 297
9. Rusty Staub 297
11. Ted Simmons 287
12. Joe Torre 284
13. Ivan Rodriguez 279
14. George Scott 277
15. Roberto Clemente 275
16. Al Kaline 271
17. Frank Robinson 269
18. Tony Perez 268
19. Dave Concepcion 266
20. Ernie Lombardi 261
That’s quite the list of players. There’s 11 hall of famers there. Lyle is probably only a better hitter than Dave Concepcion and Brooks Robinson, who were probably two of the greatest defensive players ever, so I don’t think he’s a better player than any of them, but than again there aren’t many players who are. For the record, Lyle Overbay has “only” 82 GIDP in his career, even though it seems like he hits into one every single time the situation presents itself.
MW: People have to reference the comments to which they’re referring. You can’t expect me to know what you’re talking about when I go through over 100 of these a day. Nice list, though!
- Tom the InternMW: I don’t think Tallet adds value, Ginley does, though. Might still not be enough, but it might.
My thinking, Mike, is that the Brewers only have one quality lefty in the pen (I checked to confirm) and thus, for a playoff run, Tallet (assuming he can do for them what he has done for us) should have some value I would think.
Still, I’m open to deal padding if I got close.
MW: Deal padding is always a good thing but remember, LaPorta is the Brewers’ Travis Snider.
- WillRainMike,
Your saying Tampa will not make the playoffs but will they be in the playoff hunt in September? Your earlier prediction was a fourth place finish. If your wrong about Tampa at years end. Please stop giving your predictions as there over whelmingly more wrong then right. Every year its the same old wrong predictions of teams and players. As much as you disagree with everyone and usually wrong there are people who disagree with you and right.
MW: Again - why do you come here? Why do you read this blog at all?
- brunoHave you thought of making a FAQ section of the blog? It might reduce the number of “Are the Rays for real?” and “Why did JP choose Stewart over Johnson?” type questions. Instead of instructing readers to troll the depths of posts and responses, you can simply tell them to refer to the FAQs. It probably won’t be that hard for you to do, as you have answered them dozens of times already. You can just get your intern Tom to do it if you don’t have any spare time.
MW: I have thought about doing an FAQ section. I wonder if that’s possible.
- Alex B#71: There are many pieces to the puzzle, but the information you were looking at is not one of them. Team names alone don’t mean anything. The personnel, does. The only way it makes sense to judge that 2001 Yankees performance vs any other performance is if you judge those players against those players prior and future years. Comparing a team that had Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi to one that didn’t does not prove a damn thing and isn’t a piece of any puzzle.
“As for the Overbay DP thing, how can you say that the incompetence of his teammates with RISP in those games doesn’t change the importance of those double plays? If one or two of them had been able to get a hit, those games would have been very different.”
Key words: “would have”. But they weren’t. The individual at-bats importance has nothing to do with past events(except for when using past events to project the future success of the players batting next, but your RISP probably doesn’t project into the future very well.). Yes, those games would have been very different if the Jays had hit better w/RISP, and maybe if they had Lyle’s at bats wouldn’t have been as important. But they WERE as important as they were, and no past events can change that. If Lyle Overbay steps into the batters box with men on 1st and 2nd, none out in the bottom of the 9th with his team down a run and hits into a double play the WPA is hugely significant and is the same whether his team is 0-12 w/RISP in that game or whether they’re 7-9.
And why wouldn’t you want MB here? He’s OPS’ing 1.070.
MW: I love that you speak with such authority and are so wrong. It makes the argument that much more fun. It could be argued that the fact that Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi were added to the Yankees (taking at-bats away from Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius, I believe) made the club even MORE of an offensive force, and yet their overall numbers still went down. That’s definitely a piece of the puzzle, never mind that everything is a piece of the puzzle.
- Dan WAs for the Overbay thing, your argument is completely nonsensical. Of course the double plays he hits into cost more because of his teammates’ incompetence with runners in scoring position. You’re exactly right in saying that a double play with runners at 1st and 2nd and none out in the ninth inning of a one-run game is huge no matter how the team has hit with RISP, but you’re conveniently ignoring the fact that had the team not been pathetic with RISP, it wouldn’t have been a one-run game in the 9th. Getting into hypotheticals and different space-time continuua is dicey, I know, but you’re being completely dismissive and that’s not a good way to be when you are, in fact, incorrect.
Mike,
I agree 100% that people need to reference the comments to which they are referring. I don’t know if we can make it a rule around here, but maybe your answer could be a short one: “reference please”. It will put the onus on the poster to dig up the url that contains the quote, save you the aggravation of being accused of calling someone a liar, and save time which would probably be better spent with your family.
Would an FAQ section really help though? I mean if someone wants to ask for the 2,745th time why Shannon Stewart was kept over Reed Johnson, are they really going to want to bother with looking in the FAQ section to see whether or not the question has been posed? However it does make your response very easy: “FAQ section.”, thus freeing up a little more of your time, which is a good thing.
The FAQ section is possible, but you’d have to consult with your web geniuses to get it set up. There are many questions which have come up goodness knows how many times so far. You’d just have to decide which ones you want in there and the answers to them, and then put those web guys to work.
- Tom the InternMike,
I don’t know why, I guess you can compare to seeing a train wreck. You just can’t believe what your seeing I mean what your hearing.
- bruno