2:00 AM Eastern
You know, I still believe that the Blue Jays hit rock bottom last Monday in Cleveland with the ridiculosity of the 9th inning of the nightcap before they rallied to win in the 10th, but I guess it turns out that the climb back from the deepest depths isn’t without its share of stumbles.
Tonight wasn’t as ugly as last night, though you don’t need degrees of ugliness. It was more unlucky than anything else, given the events of the bottoms of the last four innings.
By the way, sorry for the late post – I had to rush home after Wednesdays with J.P. to see a good, winning team in action. The Missouri Jailbirds of the FEBC (www.fat-elvis.com) swept a doubleheader 10-6 and 3-1 to improve to an incredible 17-5 on the season. Now THAT is about which that I am talking.
Anyway, back to the Jay game. So they’re down 4-2 going into bottom of the 6th, with Shaun Marcum having recovered from giving up two bombs to Big Daddy Vladdy (Rex Hudler’s nickname for him) to retire 11 Angels in a row. In that bottom of the 6th, six Blue Jays come to the plate, five Blue Jays absolutely scorch the ball, and they score one run on three hits. Matt Stairs started it by ripping a line drive right back through the box that, for the second straight night, the pitcher caught. Lyle Overbay then doubled into the gap in right-centre and Shannon Stewart came up with the only non-laser beam of the inning, a little humpback looper to shortstop for the second out. The much-maligned Gregg Zaun tonged one right off Jon Garland’s glove and into left for an RBI single, Marco Scutaro hit a hard grounder up the middle for another hit and Brad Wilkerson ripped a ball down the first base line that Casey Kotchman snared with a nice dive to his left to end the inning.
If the Blue Jays’ hitters actually played in the real world, Wilkerson is standing at second having hit a two-run double, four runs have scored in the inning and there’s still only one out with the Jays leading 6-4. But life doesn’t work that way for the boys in black, white, gun-metal gray and a little bit of blue. At least not in early 2008, anyway.
In the 7th, not bad luck, but bad baserunning. After Aaron Hill and Alex Rios led off with back-to-back singles, Scott Rolen swung and missed at a pitch that Mike Napoli couldn’t handle and went all the way to the backstop. Both runners either lost sight of the ball when Rolen swung or thought it was fouled off – Hill got a very late break to third, and Rios didn’t go at all. It’s impossible to explain, and impossible to excuse. Even if you think it’s a foul ball, YOU RUN UNTIL SOMEONE TELLS YOU IT’S A FOUL BALL, preferably someone who is wearing blue. Hill got to third, on a play that was closer than it should have been, but Rios stayed anchored at first. And he remained there as Rolen struck out, and again as reliever Jose Arredondo threw two balls in the dirt to Stairs, at least one of which kicked away far enough for him to try to advance. Stairs wound up hitting a hard grounder to first that Kotchman turned into a 3-6-3 double play.
If Rios runs on any of the three occasions on which he could easily have taken second (or if he’d stolen second), Kotchman would have been playing in, and Stairs’ grounder gets down the line for a two-run double. That wasn’t bad luck, that was Alex Rios not being aware enough on the basepaths. I don’t think it’s lack of focus, as we’ve mentioned with him before, and I don’t think it’s the new contract that has made him lazy. I just think it’s lack of instinct. Some guys are great baserunners (honestly, Brad Fullmer is the best Jays baserunner I’ve seen in the last 10 years, I think), and some guys aren’t. It doesn’t mean you can’t work on it, though, and Rios really needs to. All it takes is to be on the balls of your feet, ready to run at every opportunity. You don’t have to do it, you just have to be ready to do it so that you can get moving in a hurry when the opportunity presents itself. It’s really too bad, because a lot of players can find other ways to contribute when they’re not hitting. Not only is Rios not hitting right now, he’s not running the bases well when he’s on them and he’s not throwing particularly well, either. He will come out of it – he’s starting to already with the bat – and he’s going to be a great player for a long time. Tonight, though? Tonight – ARGH.
In the 8th, another chance, but Marco Scutaro’s scorched grounder was hit directly into second baseman Sean Rodriguez’ glove for the Jays’ SIXTH double play of the homestand that’s only two games old.
Finally, in the 9th, it was Rios’ shot at redemption, and he took advantage. With Hill on first and one out, Rios ABSOLUTELY DRILLED a line drive to deep left field, over the head of Garret Anderson, heading for the wall to be a game-tying double. Anderson (who, it should be noted, is no longer the defensive standout he was 10 years ago) made a superb running catch over his head. A spectacular game-saving play. Scott Rolen then followed the directions of everyone who has been whining that the Jays aren’t aggressive enough at the plate, and popped up on the next pitch to end the game.
The Jays were 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position tonight (.273), but all three hits were singles. In fact, ten of the Jays’ 11 hits were singles. For the two games with L.A. of A., the Jays have pounded out 20 hits and drawn 11 walks for a grand total of 31 baserunners. They have scored four runs. As pathetic as that is, it’s equally ridiculous, and that’s why I continue to insist that they can’t possibly keep this up.
These things simply do not happen over the course of an entire season, and in fact they’ve continued to happen this season a whole heck of a lot longer than they usually do. The Blue Jays are hitting .221 with runners in scoring position. The rest of the time, they’re hitting .265. That’s an amazing difference. The overall AL average is .258, and the league average with runners in scoring position is .265 – including those abysmal Jays numbers. It’s stupid, it’s almost unheard of and I am steadfast in my belief that it simply cannot continue.
J.P. Ricciardi joined me tonight for his regular Wednesday visit, and I was really happy that the commenter who suggested trading for Juan Pierre got through. We talked about offense, we talked about managers, we talked about trades, we talked about the farm system (yes, I asked him about Scott Campbell), we talked about all kinds of things, and you can hear it right here:
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It’s pretty plain to hear that he’s just as frustrated by what’s going on as the rest of us are.
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Hey Mike. Love the blog, love the show.
Wow, this team can really make losing two in a row seem like a torturous process.
If these losses were 6-1 and 7-2, it would be a bummer, but somehow more bearable in my opinion.
Instead, it’s almost been hilarious. The Jays have probably both out-pitched and out-hit (generally speaking, NOT with runnings in scoring position obviously) the Angels this series, and have managed to lose both games. It’s almost mind boggling.
Mike, what’s the last Jays team you can think of that was as frustrating as this one? Where does this team rank so far in all time frustrating-ness?
MW: In the overall, I don’t know that there has been a Jays team as frustrating as this one, though for short periods of time, I’ll say the last week of the 1987 season was more frustrating than this.
- James HStop with the “scorched” and “laser” and “hard grounder” nonsense already! For someone who hate intangibles, you sure have been bringing up luck a lot recently.
The real reasons for the suckage are that they lead the majors in GIDP, last in extra-base hits, 3rd last in AB/HR, and 13-24 in night games. That is one horrendous team. If anything, they’re lucky to be only 2 under .500.
MW: 13-24 in night games????
- ShawnThis is why gibbons should be fired. When you continually put your highest obp guys at the bottom of the lineup and the lowest obp guys at the top. Scutaro and Overbay have the highest obp, yet they bat at the bottom. Whoever heard of a team’s highest obp guy batting ninth? And on a team that can’t score runs? Scutaro should be batting leadoff and Overbay second. No if’s and’s or but’s. Done deal. Wilkerson has near the WORST obp on the team and he bats leadoff????? Scutaro has the HIGHEST obp and he bats ninth????? Is this the twilight zone??? Is Gibby intentionally trying to lose games? And why is Stairs with his .167 risp avg batting cleanup? You have to blame a lot of the offensive woes on Gibby with his stupid lineup card! STOP THE INSANSITY!!!!!
MW: Yes, the insansity must stop. It’s interesting, though, because I certainly don’t see Scutaro as a lead-off man, even though he has the best OBP on the team, and it’s even higher against righties at .392, though we’ve seen him at the top of the line-up against lefties. A lot of it is about labels. Scutaro is a bottom of the order guy, Wilkerson is a guy who has hit at the top of the line-up most of his career. Overbay hit second for a while last year and didn’t do well, so he doesn’t get that shot again. It’s certainly not Gibby-specific. I wonder, though, why Wilkerson gets a free pass. Granted, he hasn’t even been here two weeks, but he’s not producing at all – his numbers as a Jay are worse than Frank Thomas’ were, at .167/.255/.238.
- roccoOkay Mike, so at what point do you stop saying “its early” for a team that cant hit when it counts?
MW: When it starts to get late.
- DaveJP – “I don’t know what kind of bats are out there, what bat can you add, who can you bring in here, it’s not like there’s an elixir out there for us”
While it is still too early to land a Bay or Dunn-type bat, there are useful left-handed OF bats that could be picked up. Chris Duncan, he of the .287/.398/.457 line vs RHP is an obvious candidate to me. Ludwick and Ankiel are both hitting extremely well, and TLR likes Schumaker leading off. With Barton on the bench (huge minor league #s) and a TOP prospect in Rasmus waiting in Memphis (although he isn’t doing very well right now), I’m pretty sure St. Louis would be willing to move Duncan to bolster their struggling bullpen. The Jays have the lefties the Cards need, no offense to Ron Villone and Randy Flores.
I guess what frustrates me again is JPs commitment to a lineup that clearly isn’t getting it done. I just don’t think the Jays are in a position to stomach Shannon Stewart’s abysmal SLG in LF, especially when JP openly admits that the team needs to start hitting more than just singles. And maybe I could live with Stew’s (presumably) .350 OBP in the outfield if he wasn’t paralleled in RF by Brad Wilkerson. The Jays seriously need to go get an outfielder with some pop (or not cut bait after 5 games on their top prospect), especially when you consider that Overbay was done in 2007 after his broken hand. There’s a very real chance the team finishes with 2 sub-.400 slugging outfielders, and when you already carry Zaun, Eckstein, and Overbay as regulars, that’s just bad. There’s a reason this team is only hitting singles – it’s how you built it JP! Fix it!
“Holding the fort down a little bit until Vernon comes back, hopefully he gives us a shot in the arm” is a TERRIBLE idea.
MW: I don’t think that the Cardinals would trade Chris Duncan for Brian Tallet or Scott Downs, not even close. Good points about the Jays’ lack of slugging, though.
- AriHey Mike;
I know you are of the opinion that this is simply poor luck, but at some point doesn’t poor roster construction have to be a factor here?
There are almost no left handed hitters with power on this team. There is no legitimate 40 home run power threat period. How many doubles does JP expect this team to hit?
In addtion, I’m not sold on the “there’s nothing out there” business JP is selling. It seems to me he is basically saying he won’t sell the pitching. Well, you have to give to get, right?
Frankly, he is simply ignoring the reality that the divison we are in is an offensive division. Have the Red Sox and Yankees had some pretty good pitching over the last couple of years? Sure. But not GREAT pitching. Merely good enough pitching. He asked everyone what they would do? Here goes.
McGowan (keep Burnett/Jannsen/Ginley…etc)
Lind (replace with Snider)
Litsch (replace with Cecil)
Purcey (meh)
for
Adam Dunn/legit lefty power threat.
Some semblance of that deal has GOT to be starting a conversation at least.
No one scores a goal without going into the corners, JP.
And no one trades anything of significance for nothing.
Give the pitching up now or doom the team to more years of pathetic offence.
MW: And who are the two starters who move into the rotation to keep the Jays competitive this season?
- David MoroJust an addendum to the above post.
I might also add that the overall quality of the pitching is what I was referring to.
The Yanks and Boston’s rotations were fairly comaparable, it was their bullpen’s minus the closer that were fairly poor to bad
- David MoroWe should change the team name to the “Toronto Probability Defiers” for all the bad luck they hit into and for the ridiculous disparity between hitting with and without runners in scoring position. Per your statistics, i find it interesting that the league as a whole hits much better WRISP than without, likely because the pitchers are in the stretch and they cant often nibble.
now for my “question”
how long before the toronto brass and manager figure out what the entire rest of the league and otherwise known universe already knows..Brad wiilkerson is done..done..done…but this band of fields medal winners not only keep him on the roster..they give him a regular turn…not only that..they make him the leadoff hitter. oh..but it cost nothing to get him right?? nothing but games and time.
MW: First off, Ricciardi and Gibbons are too old to qualify for a Fields Medal. Second of all, I think that when Vernon Wells comes back, it’ll be Wilkerson or Shannon Stewart who goes, but hopefully sooner than that Wilkerson is removed from the line-up unless he turns things around. He hasn’t hit since 2004, though. Like I said above, I don’t know why they’ve been so impressed by him.
- sammyHi,
How many times did you say this can not happen Mike and it continue to happen? When will you stop making excuse for this pathethic offense team and start putting the blame on someone. I’m really wondering why you haven’t.
I’m just laughing now everytime you write or say this comment on Radio, it’s painful. The Jays will not get better, and they will not for the entire season. They’ll bust out for a game or two and it’ll be the same consistenly again. Unless something changes.
Let’s hope I’m wrong and you’re right. I’m pretty sure I know the answer to the question.
MW: If you’re right, this is the worst offense in history. I don’t believe that to be the case.
- NealMike:
All your statistics and all your optimism aside you remain a hopeless Blue Jay apologist! Guess you don’t want to offend J.P.
MW: It’s funny – lots of people think I’m way too hard on the Jays.
- c.shawRios will be great one day I agree – however we need him to be semi great right now by at least getting “set at the plate”.
It’s next to impossible for any hitter to make contact when they are not “frozen” at the plate during pitch delivery – total concentration and eys on nothing but the ball!
Rios – when he does make contact right now – it’s more or less a “lucky hit”.
He is so fidgity at the plate – hands and fingers twitching – his head no where where it should be (always pulling back off the ball). The outside portion of the plate is a huge meal for opposing pitchers – he is always bouncing up and down and moving around like some kid just learning to hit.
Any good hitter will tell you if your head and most every other part of your body are not still while at the plate there is no way you are focused completely on the task at hand or watching the pitch on the way – your mind is just too busy on other things – like the afore mentioned.
Rios is having trouble concentrating at the plate – then carries his hitting woes into the field defensively.
It’s not an easy fix for sure – but not an impossible one either – watch when he does make “good driving contact” just how much more settled he is at the plate Vs other times – he is not seeing nor watching the ball at all for the most part – and that is a “must”.
Things will turn around team wise – it’s impossible for this team to continue to do what it is doing with so much talent. The lousy luck – dp’s and incredible stops by the opposition on balls that should find there way out of the infield can’t keep up forever. Stay positive.
Side note – If “Big Brown” wins the “Triple Crown” – the Jays will win their division or a wild card spot – make a note of it!
Thanks.
MW: Tony Fernandez – maybe the Best Blue Jay hitter ever – was busy at the plate with his wrists and hands. Reed Johnson never stops moving his top hand on the bat until he swings it. Rios succeeds when he’s quieter at the plate, true, but there are lots of hitters who succeed without being frozen when the pitcher is delivering. I do agree with you, though, that Rios can carry his hitting issues into the field with him (and probably the basepaths, too).
- BobGood morning Mike, hope you had a chance to sleep in. I still think you keep ridiculous hours, but I do like the daily bloggage, so if you can keep it up, good on ya!
Well, yes, that wasn’t so great last night, but I don’t think it was an unmitigated disaster either. If the first quarter of the season had been anything even resembling normal last night would have simply been a hard luck loss. It’s the earlier RISP issues that make this appear part of a pattern. I think it’s too early into this homestand yet to predict that they’re returning to their state of offensive unhappeningness. I hope so, anyway.
Some of Rios’ troubles remind me greatly of Adam Lind last year. Lind had a lot of trouble with base running, and I believe it was Alan who first posited that he was simply not a ‘natural’, or instinctive base runner. I’m sure that’s been heavily addressed with Adam Lind in AAA, but what about Rios? Obviously he’s not getting sent down to AAA, but what are the sorts of drills and fundamentals that a caoching staff get a player to work on to improve their base running skills? Thanks, Mike.
MW: I’ll wager that Lind’s baserunning hasn’t been heavily addressed in AAA, and I’ll bet that Rios isn’t getting any baserunning drills up in the majors, either.
- kitaHey Mike,
How are you?
TFC, Man United, and even a crooner named David Cook have had incredible occurances of good luck happen after putting in some good ol’ fashion and determined hard work.
I know the bats of my Rogers Toronto Blue Jays are getting the good cuts in, and soon, very soon the payoff will come!
GO JAYS GO!
PS – I wonder if playing the violin is part of Vernon’s rehab? I think they should make similar promo spots for you, Alan, and Jerry called ‘Born to Broadcast’. That would be fun to hear!
- AneezJust listened to the JP audio, and I have to say again that while I’ve never been his biggest fan, I really respect the guy for doing these shows with you.
I don’t think firing Gibby will make much difference. I don’t think firing JP will make much difference. I don’t even think adding a bat will make much difference. What I see in this team is a perennial underachiever, and I’m beginning to think what’s needed is a blockbuster, multi-player trade that changes the entire face of the franchise. I realize it’s hard to find dance partners for that sort of thing, and there’s always the chance it could backfire and leave you worse off. However, what’s frustrating to me is that it feels like we’re SO close to being really good, but something — luck, karma, “grit” — keeps us mediocre. If I were JP I’d put out the word that Hill, Doc and the M&Ms are untouchable, but everyone else is fair game and I’m looking to make a big splash. Thoughts?
MW: They started down that road with the Glaus for Rolen deal last winter, but I don’t have a problem making any trade if it makes the team better. It’d be tough to put together something like that, though, but fun to try.
- Rob_NSMike,
I’ve been meaning to ask about the double plays for a while. Are the Blue Jays the best in the league at hitting into them? Is there a way to monitor that? Everytime they come up with someone on first I figure they will hit into one, especially late in the games.
MW: The Blue Jays are easily the best (worst?) in the league at hitting into double plays and are on pace to be the all-time leaders in that category for a single season. Still, they’re hitting into fewer than a DP and a half every game, so it’s still not happening as often as you think.
- MarkPersonally, I think that the problems Rios is having with “concentration on the basepaths”, and to a lesser extent with his defense, are directly related to his problems at the plate. I think he is taking his frustration with his AB’s with him, and as such is losing just a bit of focus on the other aspects of his game.
One evidence of this is that he is not “busting it” out of the box when he hits ground balls — accordingly, he is not even picking up infield hits on the close plays he used to beat out.
When (not if) he starts hitting again, I think we’ll see a marked improvement!
The last two nights he is showing signs of swinging the bat better — maybe he’s coming out of it.
MW: I think he is, too, but he never has “busted it” down the line with any sort of regularity.
- NormMike, you make your own luck. The Jays came up against an excellent defence and suffered accordingly. Occasionally, hitters get unlucky. When they get unlucky this often it’s because there’s something they’re not getting right. To ground into this number of dps is, well it was finally funny to me and all the fans sitting around me. Because there was nothing left to do but make small bets as to how the next batter was going to make his out(s)_
By the way, thanks for this blog. None of my family and friends like baseball, so I have nowhere to go but here to vent, chat and discuss!
MW: You’re welcome, but you don’t make your own luck. I believe that you can put yourself in the position to be lucky or unlucky more often than others, but luck is still luck.
- reyesWhat would aquiring A. Dunn demand from us, as far as a trade goes ?
MW: Good young pitching.
- Nicky ZI enjoy listening to your commentary when I can, as you seem very knowledgeable. The feeling I get though is that your station, except Bob McCowan (unsure of spelling) pander to the Jays and Rogers because or your station’s relationship with them. I am a very long baseball fan and it seems to me that you are all avoiding the simple fact that the Jays farm system is ranked one of the poorest in baseball and the proof of this is the lack of depth on this team and the fact that the GM has resorted to picking up cast-offs from other teams (not just the recent outfielders picked up), rather than having good young players ready for the majors in the wings. That is the fault of the GM but you and your station treat the GM and the team with kid gloves and don’t tell it straight that the GM has done a poor job, not just of building a real contender, but in rebuilding the farm system. The young pitchers performed last season and so far this season beyond expectations, which is the only thing which has saved this team from being truly one of the worst in the major leagues. J.R. is no Pat Gillick (who drafted and recruited well and had good people in place, developing a terrific farm system), and is not even as good as Gord Ash. He also has let go of or traded players who have done well or are doing well elsewhere. Just for fun, why don’t you put down on paper all the players who are doing well or have recently done well on other teams and used to be Jays or were drafted by the Jays. Tell the truth, please, the whole truth, or please pass this on to Bob McCowan. I have heard him say that J.R. has done a poor job, and I couldn’t agree more, not just for the on the field product, but especially because of the poor farm system.
MW: It’s J.P., by the way. You’re entitled to your opinion about the people at the radio station, but that’s not the case. No one treats the Jays, or Ricciardi, with kid gloves because we’re all owned by the same company. It’s interesting that you blame Ricciardi for everything that’s gone wrong but that the pitchers are performing “above expectations”, so he gets no credit for that. To suggest that Ash was a better G.M. is absurd. And who has gone on to great things after J.P. let them go – Reed Johnson? Troy Glaus? Gabe Gross? Jose Cruz, Jr.? Tanyon Sturtze? Shea Hillenbrand? Miguel Batista? Scott Schoeneweis? Josh Phelps? Mark Hendrickson is having a good year this season, four years after he was traded, Eric Hinske likewise, two years out. Yes, Orlando Hudson has been terrific since he left, but Glaus was pretty good when he was here, and Scott Rolen is the Best Blue Jay Ever.
- BlairMinor correction:
but Rios stayed anchored at second (first).
I think Murphy’s Law is going to kick in sooner or later…
MW: Right. I’ll go fix that. Murphy’s Law hasn’t already kicked in? How could things get worse?
- Chrishow bout Tuesday’s with J.P …busy on wednesdays
MW: Sorry. But you can listen to it here whenever you like.
- TomHi Mike,
We’re almost 50 games into the season, at some point this HAS to become more than bad luck. I mean, being 30th in MLB in BA w/ RISP, 29th in OBP w/ RISP, 30th in Slg % w/ RISP, 1st in MLB in # of GIDP, and being 1st in the AL with 10 games lost by 1 run has more to do with poor performance by the team (players AND coaches) than just plain bad luck. This trend has continued for almost 50 games (with very minor blips…)
I understand that they recently went on a little tear, and I was every hopeful they’d snapped out of it, but I’m beginning to think that the hitting was an aberration and not the lack thereof. Also, before tonight I looked up the Jays Record when trailing after certain innings:
Blue Jays Record when Trailing heading into the:
5th inning: 1-8
6th inning: 1-12
7th inning: 1-17
8th inning: 0-20
9th inning: 0-18
Those are not the numbers of a team that seems capable of sustaining any sort of long winning streak (which the team will need to get itself in a good position to make the playoffs). I guess the solution to these problems and trends is to sit idly by, while the we get deeper into the season when it’s going to be way tougher to , and just hope that things turn around.
MW: That’s my solution, because the fact that things have been as bad as they have is unexplainable.
- KevinDid anyone ask J.P why Wilkerson is still in the line-up and why he is batting 1st?
I know the “plan” was to have Lind play the whole season in triple A but it makes no sense anymore. Surely Lind is a better option??
MW: Nope, nobody asked. They all wanted Jason Bay.
- Chris JonesMike
This teams lack of doing the little things to win is the most frustrating to me.Pitching is great and their defence is there.But when they get get runners on and a chance to tie up or win a game they just don’t get it done,they look bad trying.Some heads up baserunning and the odd sac fly would do wonders.
Is it just me or are these guys waiting for the perfect pitch to hit a bases clearing double or a grand slam when they get the bases juiced as in tuesday’s game?
MW: Nope, they’re just trying to get the runner in. Just not doing it.
- TPMike
No offense, but what’s the saying “If its and buts were candys and nuts….”? Rationalizing losses, which every fan has to do, is getting old around here.
I have been an avid Blue Jay fan going back to the early 1980s. I am a fan of baseball and understand it’s intricacies, quirks, etc. That’s why I love it. As a result, I am not a bandwagon fan, nor give up when things are bleak, because as we all know, there have been some bleak times in Jays land. Having said that, this team, without a doubt, has to be the biggest disappointment of all Jays teams. Maybe I drank the koolaid, but “on paper” these guys should be okay. Last week, in my opinion, WAS the aberration. They only scored a league average number of runs per game, so it wasn’t like the bats took off.
Enough of my rant. My question to you is at what point will you admit that maybe, just maybe, these guys are not what is advertised? I don’t want you to go “Griffin” on the Jays, but the truth seems evident to a lot of us that have been around a long time.
MW: So long as they continue to put runners on base and get themselves into situations where even an average team should be scoring a bunch of runs, I won’t believe that they’re no good. Like you said, all they need to do to win on a regular basis is score just the league average amount of runs.
- DanSame script, same actors, same result. I wish Jays find some other way to lose ball games. It’s plain frustrating to see double plays in later stages of the game. To make it worse, Jays have been in the ball game almost every time. Except that royal butt-kicking in Cleveland, how many times Jays have not been in the game this season? Jays need some luck, it’s time some bounces go their way. They arent as bad as their record.
MW: They’re exactly as bad as their record, but can play much better. There have only been two games that the Jays were out of all season, and only one that featured a major-league starter on the mound.
- BeburgMike, I love your blog and Jays talk. I am really beginning to think what we see is really what we are going to get with this team. A 500 team. I was reading the jays website today and I really believe I must be living in bizarro world as I read this quote from Gibby…
“I like everything about Wilkerson,” Toronto skipper John Gibbons said prior to Wednesday’s game against the Angels. “We’ve been winning with him in there. He’s a very good outfielder. He’s got a good eye at the plate.” Wilkerson is hitting .167 as a Jay and we have the manager saying he likes wilkerson at lead off? Isn’t a lead off hitter supposed to get on base? Wow, I really think I am in bizarro world. I am with you, I would rather have Obay up top or perhaps Stewart. I know they were winning with Wilkerson at lead off but I really don’t think it has anything to do with Wilkerson. The logic just baffles me.
MW: Me, too.
- KenMike, I agree with you that luck is an uncontrollable factor in sports- just like hustle/knowledge/confidence are ‘intangibles’. As for the passive/aggressive debate… you say you can’t have it both ways, but that’s baseball- running on passed balls, laying off filthy curves.
The jays were hitting, raking the ball right up the box, but they are plagued by poor decisions on the basepaths and at the plate in critical moments. They did face superior pitching last night, Lackey was dominant and Frankie wasted no time.
What bothered me most about that game:
7th inning- why not send Rios to second to avoid the DP? Hill could have even swiped home if Napoli did attempt a throw.
8th inning- why put Luna in the game and not use his speed? I’d rather see Scutaro bunt and sacrifice.
9th inning- I was amazed when Scioscia put F-Rod back in. He threw over 30 pitches last night… and the jays managed to go down in under 10.
I was frustrated when Rolen and Stairs seemed to be swinging for the fences- granted, these are our RBI machines right now but I hope the hitters stop pressing, take it the other way, and make their pitchers work.
I know, hindsight is 20/20, but I was squirming during those innings. However, Marcum pitched strong, and our Rod made a helluva catch beside their dugout.
Tonight’s matchup is going to be tough, I hope Gibbons shakes up the lineup-but Wilkerson as our leadoff batter is mindboggling- who would you start? Hill? Rolen?
MW: Up top? I’d go with Stewart or Overbay. There’s a lefty pitching tonight, so we may even see Scutaro in the lead-off spot (even though his obp against lefties is 41 points lower).
- AdamMikey!
A buddy and I were talking after last night’s game about the effect an umpire has on a pitcher’s game.
For example, a guy like Rick Reed, when he’s working the plate, he seems to have a pretty wide strike zone while others have their “own” strike zone.
Are you aware of any stats resources for umpires’ stats? i.e. pitcher’s ERA, anything else related… We tried to Google for that last night and found nothing.
Make it a great day…
MW: There are umpires’ ERAs, and umpires’ K rates and stats like that – try Baseball Prospectus, but you’ll have to subscribe.
- SSAt what point does it change from the jays are having bad luck and are slumping to this is what they are? Forget last nights game Im still scratching my head at how you strike out looking with the bases loaded to end a game.
MW: What are they? An average-hitting team unless there are runners in scoring position, in which case they become the worst offense ever? That just doesn’t happen.
- kevubFrustrated like the rest of us? How much money is he getting paid for being just frustraded. We feel that way for nothing.Get somebody that can turn thia mediocre team into a team that one enjoys watching.
- JimMike,
Have you ever been to Christie Pits to watch the Toronto Maple Leafs (baseball version) play?
What are your thoughts and comments about them?
KK
MW: I’ve never been.
- karim kanjiMike, I was just checking Hideki Matsui’s career stats. He played 163 games in 2003 season. How come?
MW: The Yankees had a tie game that year.
- BeburgThis most recent string of ineptitude has led to my wife and I trying to call the double-play before it happens. If the Jays have a runner on first and less than two out, one of us will say ‘here comes the double-play’. If it happens then the other person has to fold the next load of laundry, if it doesn’t, then the person who predicted the double-play gets the honour. Yes we’re lame but so is the Jays’ offense these days!
MW: What happens the seven or eight times a game that there’s no DP?
- DerekBaserunning has been an issue for the team for the last couple seasons. It’s not something that can be tracked, but it seems like they make elementary mistakes every other game or so. Some major, some minor.
As for last night, Rolen is partly to blame, as he should have been waving to signal that the ball had gotten away(and it also would have clued the runners in that he hadn’t gotten a piece of it).
MW: Whether he got a piece of it or not, they should have been running.
- BrendanMike – Is there a specific coach used for working on running (not during the game) and are basepath drills a common thing for teams to work on during practice?
MW: Nope. There are very, very few (if any) drills that any team works on during batting practice. They do it in Spring Training and, generally, that’s it.
- Dave GAnd PS, reading about Marcum taking the blame for the loss made me sick. The guy pitched beautifully and kept his team in the game. Thank heaven the sports reporters weren’t buying it. But it’s only a matter of time before morale in the pitching staff goes down enough to affect their performance on the field.
- reyesUsually, I would agree that statistical anomalies such as the Jays’ batting average with RISP can only last so long and would inevitably be followed by a prolonged offensive display worthy of the ages. But, alas, it should be clear by now that the Blue Jays’ woes are not merely statistical. The problem is mental. Pure and simple. Yogi Berra would concur.
Therefore, I suggest three measures to adopt to break through this mental madness, and I am completely serious about each one. Desperate times call for desperate measures, including the use of Caps Lock in lieu of italics. I generally try not to write novels on this blog, but please bear with me:
1) Every time a Blue Jay is on base Gibbons should put on the hit and run. I don’t care how many times the baserunner is caught stealing, and I don’t care how many times the baserunner is doubled up. This strategy will force the Jays’ hitters to make good contact with runners on base. They shouldn’t even try to necessarily hit it on the ground; they should just hit the ball. When they do hit the ball they will avoid having the baserunner thrown out and will avoid many conventional double plays. Getting doubled up on line drives and the like doesn’t usually happen. Of course, you know how hit and runs are supposed to work already, but I propose that it be used EVERY SINGLE TIME. Good things will happen, and eventually it won’t be necessary.
2) The problem with the Jays’ hitters goes well beyond the manager, and I’m not about to point a finger at Gibbons at this point. HOWEVER, I really don’t think the lineup is appropriate; too many guys are hitting in spots where they haven’t hit before and/or are not taking a natural approach to hitting specifically because of the expectations that come with hitting in a certain spot. I don’t care what Rios says, or how well he hit yesterday, the guy does not hit the same in every spot in the lineup. He should be leading off (ideally he should hit second, but not on this team). I’m sorry, but he’s not the power guy everyone thinks he is. What he is is a 20+ homerun guy with speed and patince at the plate. I don’t care how well Stairs hit last year or how many clutch home runs he hit. I don’t care that he’s doing well so far this year too. The guy is a 40-year-old career .267 hitter and career .487 slugger. Much of his performance, especially last year, was unusual, and it should be no surprise that his sluggin is down. Put Overbay fifth instead. While his career SLG is lower, his career also isn’t nearly as long, and he’s used to an everyday role. The guy is a doubles machine, and he should be coming to the plate with the team’s best hitters ahead of him. I don’t care if Hill is supposed to theoretically potentially probably eventually become a great guy for the number 2 slot. He’s more comfortable hitting lower in the lineup. Period. And I don’t care if Adam Lind went 1 for 19 when he came up ealrier, he should be the left fielder. It boggles my mind how somehow Wilkerson or Mench with their pristine .200 averages are supposed to ride into town on their white horses and save the Jays’ season. With everyone healthy, the Jays lineup should look like this:
Rios (RF)
Lind (LF)
Wells (CF)
Rolen (3B)
Overbay (1B)
Hill (2B)
Stairs (DH)
Eckstein (SS)
Zaun (C)
I’ll just note that Eckstein is 8th instead of 9th because usually opposing pitchers are right handed and this way the lineup has another righty-lefty sequence. Of course, Wells being injured messes up everything, but I would seriously consider putting Stewart, Wilkerson or Mench in Wells’ spot for now just so that everyone else can get in their comfort zone. Yes, comfort zones, whatever the heck that means, are important.
3) The Jays’ lineup for tonight’s game should be as follows:
Coats (CF)
Inglett (2B)
Lind (LF)
Cannon (1B)
Luna (3B)
Diaz (DH)
Adams (RF)
Scutaro (SS)
Zaun (C)
Every other hitter on the Jays’ 25-man roster should spend the night at Canada’s Wonderland. In particular, they should probably get soaked several times on Timberwolf Falls (I think that’s what it’s called). When they return to batting practice tomorrow, one of the coaches should stand on second or third base throughout the entire session. The coach should stand there every day for batting practice (with a helmet, of course) without exception.
The end.
MW: You need to start your own blog. Most people stopped reading four paragraphs ago.
- ShmuelAt what point is this the worst offense in history?
MW: When they also hit .220 without runners at second or third or both.
- DougJP – “It’s not like (Bay)’s tearing it up either, if you look at the numbers” & “(Pierre)’s got about a .320 lifetime OBP”
It might also help if our GM actually knew what he was talking about. Maybe you can pass along the message that Juan Pierre has NEVER had an OBP of .320 (career .350), and 30 points is a bit of a stretch on the word “about”. And Jason Bay is churning out a .259/.392/.487 line, something that would like look nice in our OF, regardless of if he’s not “tearing it up” in JP’s eyes. LOL I wish ONE player on the Jays would have EITHER his OBP or SLG, even if he wasn’t “tearing it up”.
I’m not sure what’s more frustrating, as a knowledgeable fan of the game/team – watching the Jays play this season, or listening to the verbal diarrhea that emanates from his mouth on a weekly basis.
MW: I thought Bay was having a better year than J.P. was giving him credit for, but he’s not “tearing it up” even though he’s having a better year than any Jay. As for Pierre, yes, his lifetime obp is .348, but he hasn’t been over .331 in four years outside his quick start to this season. Whether Ricciardi thinks his career on-base is “about .320″ or not, he’s not interested in acquiring him, not should he be.
- AriA hitter can’t do anything other than try to hit the ball hard. If you hit it hard and they catch or make a nice play, there really isn’t a whole heck of alot you can do. Baseball is a game of inches, which makes it so enjoyable, at least for me. If the Jays were whiffing all the time, then there would be real cause for concern.
I didn’t see the game, but heard parts, and it sounds like Vlad hit his 2 jacks on really good pitches that a normal hitter wouldn’t have a chance on. Vlad has made his living doing that.
I don’t think there is a move out there the Jays could make that would change there fortune. Another blog on the Fan website made a mention of a Griffey for Burnett swap. Would you see this much like a Frank Thomas signing, or would Griffey as a DH have a bit of a rejuvenation because he wouldn’t have to take the pounding of playing the OF?
MW: Griffey for Burnett would never, ever happen. What would the Reds want with Burnett, first off? Second – Griffey wouldn’t waive his no-trade to come to Toronto.
- Aaron KerHalf way through reading Game of Shadows, maybe J.P’s right Bonds is a guy we could do without.
MW: Elijah Dukes played centrefield for the Washington Nationals last night.
- Phil SmithI think the Cardinals would take Scott Downs in a heartbeat for Chris Duncan.
MW: There’s not even the slimmest slim chance of that. Duncan has a career OPS of .934 against righties and he hasn’t even hit arbitration yet! Downs has lifted himself beyond the “dime a dozen lefty reliever” status, but he’s not worth anything close to that.
- AriWe also talked about the War of 1812 (sorry if you found that a bit of a waste of time, but it was just a quick followup and figured a curveball might be mildly entertaining to change pace from the endless “why won’t you take responsibility” calls).
Going off memory here, but as for the White House, I don’t think we burned it down because it wasn’t the White House until after the fire. Like every public building in Washington, we set it on fire, but it didn’t burn down, so they painted it white to cover up the burn marks. That’s why it’s the White House now.
Oh, and in response to my first question JP said once the injuries healed up they’d keep as deep a bench as they could – does that mean he’ll go to a 5-man bench with 5 outfielders? Because when I asked you about that, Mike, you’d agreed with me that he was most likely to release either Wilkerson or Stewart.
MW: Yeah, I did, but it sounds now like he might keep everybody and drop a reliever, which I think is terrific. I liked the 1812 question, and so did he.
- TylerJP mentioned last night when asked about what they’ll do with Mench and Wilkerson once Wells comes back, that teams will need as much depth on the bench as possible due to “Baseball’s Crackdown on things.”
It seemed like a strong inference that most players were on the juice in prior years, thus able to avoid injuries and burn out, etc. Is that what he was in fact inferring? What did you take from that comment?
MW: That’s exactly what I took from it.
- CamMike, when the GM indicates that “he has no answers’ for the Jays’woes, where does leave the fans? I know that J.P. doesn’t swing a bat, run the bases or throw the baseball, but if he doesn’t have any answers, then who does? Some seem to suggest that time will heal the Jays problems or that when Wells returns from the DL, he will lead them out of the wilderness. However, we have heard all this before and while the team has had some flashes of “greatness”, the results seem to be the same year after year. If the players can’t be changed, then do something (anything) to show the fans that this team does care about winning. What Toronto doesn’t need is the baseball version of the Maple Leafs and that’s where I fear the Jays are headed (or maybe already there).
MW: They’re not even close to the baseball version of the Maple Leafs. If baseball let everybody into the playoffs like hockey does, the Jays would have been in the post-season three of the last four years, and with last year’s pitching, probably would have done some real damage. Ricciardi has no answers because what the Jays are doing right now is thoroughly unexplainable.
- KenI don’t think the Jays can win 7 more game than the Red Sox over the rest of the season.
MW: They don’t have to.
- LexMike there has been considerable discussion surrounding the Jays inability to score runs but there does not seem to be many answers as to what the Jays can do to fix this.One of the key elements which seems to be missing is team speed or having a few players which can contribute to a teams success without huge power numbers or big on base numbers. I will use a couple of examples to illustrate the value of this type of player. Jacoby Ellesbury and Carl Crawford are two players neither of which have big power numbers nor do their batting averages standout but, what does standout is there ability to score runs and yes I realize that the person or persons hitting behind them have an impact. In the case of Ellesbury he has scored an astonishing 60% of the time he has reached base either via a hit or walk (yes I realize he can get on in other ways). In arriving at this stat I have deducted his HRs from his runs and hits totals. In the case of Crawford it is 50%. Not only this, but I can guaranty you that hitters hitting behind these players are seeing a lot more fast balls or are seeing pitchers rush there deliveries to compensate for this speed. This type of player in my opinion has a lot more value offensively than power hitters for the obvious reason that it is a lot easier to hit a single or walk than it is to hit an HR,Double or Triple. Why are the Jays not targeting this type of player either through drafting or via the free agent market. PS- The Player has to be able to defend at least a little. Juan Pierre is an abolute horrible defender. I didn’t look at Jose Reyes but I suspect his numbers are fantastic as well.
MW: Speed is a great weapon to have, it’s true, and it helps a ton when there aren’t big sluggers behind you. The Red Sox are the highest-scoring team in the league, though, and Crawford hits at the top of a top-heavy T-Bay line-up. There’s no argument, though, that once those guys get on, they have a better chance of scoring than the average player.
- mike glattHey Mike,
I appreciate you asking JP about Campbell. Next question for you, after JP made it clear that they will not re-negotiate with AJ, would it not make sense to consider trade options or do you think the supplemental pick would be of more value? AJ isn’t doing much for us this year and the Mets and Tigers could use rotation help.
MW: A.J. is doing a hell of a lot more than whoever they replace him in the rotation with would.
- JeffWhad up Mike,
Great bloggage BTW.
So you guys touched on Rios plenty last night. He seems to be coming out of this slump but at a slow pace. You mentioned his lack of instinct and i could’nt agree with you more but don’t you think that him being in the bigs for a number of years now makes him more than capable of having better instinct??? How much longer do you think Gibby will keep Rios hitting at 3rd for???
Mike, I want to talk combinations here. I’v been watching teams like the Red Sox play and I’v noticed how each player in their line-up compliments one another. It seems that the Jays don’t have that. Also, they have five or so guys hitting around the 300 mark(Pedroia,Youkilis,Casey) and i think that’s what really makes them such a dominant force. Each player in that line-up is consistantly hitting every game where as the Jays are so streaky and rely on individual performances. Are the Jays ever going to settle on an established line-up where they can get the right combinations going? To me that’s what is needed to actually get some kind momentum going for this team.
Always a fan,
WO!
MW: I don’t think line-up combinations have anything to do with it, honestly. And it’s also not true that each player is consistently hitting every game.
- Warren OwenHey Mike,
Unbelievably frustrating baseball to watch.
Just wondering what J.P. sees in Brad Wilkerson that virtually the rest of the league doesn’t. Clearly the numbers don’t support his presence in the lineup. I realize Adam Lind didn’t look good while he was here, but he is hitting well again in Syracuse and it is hard to see him there and Wilkerson in TO. I don’t believe 19 at bats or whatever it was is enough to judge him by. I apologize if this has already been asked.
Also, Richard Griffin recently compared this starting to rotation to the 92 group. I think they are comparable, but the 92 bullpen is what sets that team apart: Henke, Ward, Timlin, Wells, Hentgen, Leiter and in the playoffs Stottlemyre. Is that one of the best overall pitching staffs of all time?
MW: It was a terrific bullpen, but one of the best pitching staffs of all time? I don’t think so. I’m with you on Wilkerson – he gets more rope because he has a track record (though from a long time ago) and a lot of the Jays’ front office-types have loved him for a long time.
- Rob H.Thanks as always.
You shot down some guy for wanting Carl Crawford (btw, I am not saying that the Jays could or should make a package deal for him). Your reasoning was that he has a career OBP of .330. Seems we have a 140 million plus guy on the team with a career OBP of .331.
Based on your reasoning, you should be excoriating the Jays every day for that deal. (and it was indeed a disastrous signing).
And Crawford is twice the ballplayer Wells is.
MW: I shot down the package that the guy wanted to give up for Crawford.
- Paul BUse a reliever like everybody else does for their fifth starter.
Howabout Brian Wolfe? Seems to have the stuff for it, and he could be stretched out soon enough (given health).
How about Brian Tallet? Or even Brandon League? The red sox are giving tryouts toguys like Sir Sidney in the five spot.
Heck, go to a four man rotation. Or simply replace prospect (cecil) for Litsch.
Look, no one has perfect answers for the team, but some balance is necessary.
I could a see a
Halladay
Burnett
Marcum
(reliever)
scrap heap guy/reliever
plenty competitive with the bullpen Toronto’s got IF THEY HAD A LEGIT THREAT.
But that’s just me.
MW: Yeah, I think it is just you. The Blue Jays have needed their pitchers to be almost perfect to have a chance to win, one legit big bat threat won’t change that enough to run two pieces of crap out there at the bottom of the rotation.
- David MoroHave you noticed that Lyle Overbay can’t hit a change-up? Kind of odd for a guy with little homerun power. It seems to be the go to pitch when runners are in scoring position for opposing pitchers.
At what point do we stop saying the Jays are unlucky?
MW: I noticed that he struck out on a change-up last night, but I have seen him hit change-ups before, and a long way. Your second question is answered higher up in these comments.
- Jim BIf they are sustaining this sine wave tpe of performance, there has to be an explanation. Their hitting woes are not ‘unexplainable’.
If we are willin to submit that these are indeed good hitters, it has to be attributed to the mental side. They have spiralled out to such a low, that whenever a bj hitter as at the plate with RISP, he probably feels the pressure and as such, they are pressing.
Its all on the players and if they continue this, the one who has to be held accountable is JP — this is something he fully accepts.
MW: Even if they’re all pressing so much that they’re soiling themselves right there in the batters’ box, there would still be the occasional flare, duck snort, broken-bat looper or “ground ball with eyes”. But even that’s not happening.
- AKI am starting my own blog, but it probably won’t focus on the Blue Jays. Most baseball fans couldn’t find Toronto on a map and couldn’t care less about its baseball team. In any event, I hope you didn’t stop reading four pragraphs before the end, since you’re the only person who I care to read it.
MW: I appreciate that, but you have to stop with the novellas.
- ShmuelHey Mike! I enjoy listening to your show. I still think the Jay’s could contend because their pitching is amazing. Like you said many times before on the radio, the Jay’s can’t continue to hit as bad as they are with runners in scoring position.
I hear many people who call in on your show and suggest that the Jay’s should trade pitching for Jason Bay or Adam Dunn right now. Also, I heard last night a commenter suggesting Juan Pierre which made me laugh. I would not overpay for Adam Dunn or Jason Bay because I think trading Burnett, McGowan or Marcum would create a big hole in the rotation. I would rather have an amazing rotation rather than an “OK” rotation.
One player I suggest the Jays should trade for is OF Frank Catalanotto from Texas. The Rangers have an overcrowded outfield right now, so Catalanotto could be available. Catalanotto was a professional hitter and loved playing in Toronto. Catalanotto was an excellent number two hitter against right handed pitching when he was with the Jays, and was always great in clutch situations. Catalanotto was a great hitter during his four year tenure with the team.
I know Catalanotto has started off slow in 2008, though he has picked it up as of late raising his season totals to .275/.362/.431. Catalanotto is no Jason Bay or Adam Dunn; however, I really think he would spark this offense. I sure wouldn’t mind a Catalanotto and Mench platoon in left field.
One fact which you should like about Catalanotto is that he has always loved to hit against Boston. Catalanotto has batted .316 alongside with 11 homeruns, 49 RBI, a .380 OBP and a .514 SLG in 383 at-bats versus Boston throughout his career.
What do you think about bringing back the Cat? Overall, I know Catalanotto is not going to have a major impact like Adam Dunn or Jason Bay and that he’s not going to be the saviour for this offense, though I think he would add a nice piece to the puzzle. He would provide a solid left handed bat for the number two spot in the batting order. I’m all for bringing back the Cat!
MW: I love Catalanotto, but he’s not what the Jays need right now. The Jays (note the lack of apostrophe) need a finisher, not a sparkplug. Someone who can put the ball in the seats on a regular basis.
- SilvioBTW, just to clarify my previous comment about my own blog: my point was that, among other things, if I’m going to predict that the Jays make the postseason I think I’m better off not sounding like a Jays fan lest nobody except Torontonians actually read what I have to say. Whatever, I’m sure you’re not so interested.
I’ll keep my point this time short and sweet (you’re not going to like this):
Cubs’ record with Johnson in starting lineup: 22-10
Cubs’ record without Johnson in starting lineup: 6-9
MW: Means nothing.
- ShmuelHey, Mike. Adam Dunn this, Jason Bay that. But as an American Jays fan I thought I’d pipe in with my two cents on the War of 1812.
Of course the Americans won! Yeah you torched some buildings in D.C., but the final conflict was the Battle of New Orleans, an embarrassing loss for the British Empire. 2,037 casualties to just 71 for the U.S.! Ouch!
P.S. So the best left-handed setup man in baseball won’t get us Chris Duncan? I bet the Cardinals would at least mull it over if not accept it.
MW: If the Cards are even semi-interested in mulling it over, I’d add any little thing to bump it over the top. I don’t see it happening at all.
- Matt S//It’s funny – lots of people think I’m way too hard on the Jays//
Maybe, but way too easy on management.
MW: I don’t have a huge problem with the management. At the beginning of the season, I saw a team that I thought would contend, and I don’t think anyone in their right mind could have seen them hitting .220 with RISP almost a third of the way through the season.
- Chris JonesI don’t think you can constantly attribute the Jays’ lack of success to “bad luck”. Sure, they are a statistical anomaly when it comes to the discrepancy in batting average with RISP, and that may well turn itself around, but a lot of what you cite isn’t really bad luck. At the major league level, players are expected to make plays. Most of the hard hit balls that resulted in outs or double plays were either routine plays, or solid plays that you expect pros to make – nothing really spectacular. Scouting and defensive positioning are part of the game – you’re supposed to “hit ‘em where they ain’t.” And if you want to play the “it should have been this way in the real world” game every time a Blue Jay hits into a hard out, you have to also do that for the opposition. If they went out there and consistently got broken-bat and blooper hits to drive in runs, you wouldn’t be talking about their good fortune, just that they are getting the job done. Results matter.
MW: Of course results matter, but it’s a little short-sighted to not look at how those results were achieved. I don’t think I’d be praising people for breaking a bat and dropping a little flare in front of the left fielder, but a lot of players do get hits like that – just not the Jays this season. You’re supposed to “hit ‘em where they ain’t”, it’s true, but how much control do you think a hitter actually has in that respect?
- JaymeisterI saw your response to my comment, but you haven’t addressed the fact that the Jays farm system is very thin and is very poorly rated by Baseball America I think or some such organization. Surely JP is responsible for that, is he not? And they don’t have good enough players in Syracuse to come up and perform at the big league level, which is why they have had to fill with the likes of Wilkerson and Hector Luna or whatever his name is. You have to agree that the farm system is not very good and JP is responsible for that.
MW: I don’t have to agree that the farm system isn’t very good. There are a lot of young players who are currently producing at the major-league level, like Marcum, McGowan and Litsch for example. It doesn’t matter how a farm system is rated, it matters what you do with the players who are down there. The Jays aren’t at the top of the list, like Tampa Bay for example, but they’re not at the bottom, either.
- BlairBTW, why do you correct peoples’ spelling and punctuation while at the same time making up non-existent words like ridiculosity?
MW: Because I believe in proper spelling and good grammar, even with words that I create.
- JaymeisterI am absolutely amazed that you are still JP’s main supporter other than Paul Godfrey. He has obviously failed in many ways and getting lucky with a couple of low draft choices was mostly the doing of his scouts. Riccardi comes across as an arrogant know it all and we might applaud him if he had any degree of success but changing your drafting and player philosophy so many time actually shows the lack of an actual plan for success.By the way, every baseball writer in town and the knowledgable baseball media seem to disagree with you.
MW: Yeah, every move J.P. has made has been a complete failure, except for the ones that worked, which were only lucky. A monkey could have done better. I don’t think that every baseball writer in town (or the “knowledgeable” baseball media) disagrees with me, but even if they did, that wouldn’t matter. Surely you must agree that because something is conventionally accepted doesn’t make it right.
- FrankACTION SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS
Hi Mike,
Its getting close to turning off The Blue Jays. I’ll turn them back on when is see some action, like 10 games over .500. Right now their just, as they have been for years another below .500 or just above .500 team. I swore that if I didn’t see more action this year than words I was turning them off. Use my baseball time for something else. This has been going on for too many years. J.P. Richardi as always has his excuses, hitting is down in the league as a whole. Yes, this is true but he doesn’t mention that The Jays are LAST in almost all offensive catagories. There’s none/nada/nill late inning heroics on this team, games are over almost as soon as the other team scores. You can go on and on. Winning the division, forget about it, Boston is built for 8th & 9th innings heroics. The Wild Card doesn’t even look good. J.P. says he’s responsible which he is. We can only hope he’s gone after this. Stop the excuses and the word “IF” after every game. Action speak louder than words.
MW: It’s either action speaks louder than words or actions speak louder than words, you have to pick one. And if you turned the Jays off, what would you have to complain about constantly?
- brunoMike
I don’t know if MLB’s crackdown on “juicers” is actually happening, but is it possible that pitchers, as all athletes have gotten bigger and stronger, may have gained an advantage over “non-juiced” hitters? The reason that there was a balance was by hitters juicing? In other words, maybe hitters benefit more from roids than pitchers.
MW: Maybe, but it would seem to me that there are far more tangible benefits to juicing for pitchers, like faster recovery time and gains in strength that are actually reflected on the radar gun.
- DanHi Mike
Tough loss again.
Almost as tough as ’87 but really not close.It must be tough semming like you’re the only Blue Jay fan that wants to see them win ,but you’re not i’m still on board.It’s just haertbreaking to see every hard hit ball turning into an out or a double play I hate to call it bad luck but what else is there.I think the only thing that can be done is stay the course and hopefully the game run by numbers will eventually average out.(couldn’t explain it any other way).Maybe move Wilkerson out of the one slot.Another thing for all the Ricciardi bashing he has put together probably the best pitching staff in baseball.I guess pitching isn’t important.
mario
Go Jays!!!
MW: No, the good pitching staff is just because of luck and Gord Ash left-overs.
- marioWooo Hoooo the 4th place Jays…plan the parade.
- dionDo you still think the Jays have a better team than Tampa? Just curious. And ifthe answer is yes, which i assume it is, why? Pitching?
KD
MW: Yep. Not the way they’re playing now, obviously, but once the next 114 games or so get done.
- kevinRegarding my earlier post on players “on the juice”, are you of the belief that most players were using it, both pitchers and hitters? Would it be more than 75%? Did you ever witness anything in the locker room that you wished you hadn’t in terms of performance enhancers?
Also, do you think the crackdown on steroids is a major reason for the poor offensive numbers across the board this year in the Majors?
MW: Yes, yes, no and no.
- CamHey Mike…..what is up with Davis Romero….seems to be putting up grood numbers at Syracuse…is he still on the map or a fringe player at this point
MW: He’s still recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum, but he’s progressing really nicely.
- RockNothing means nothing. It’s nobody’s fault. These things just happen. Gibby’s doing a fantastic job. The “Law of regression towards the mean” (Even if the mean is bad) is proof that we will prevail. Blah Blah Blah.
I’ve been lobbying Microsoft to install a sarcasm button next to my Caps Lock key but to no avail. So here’s hoping that you’ve all managed to locate the sarcastic tone in my first paragraph.
What ever happened to just plain bad? Or how’s this one for size…..I’ve heard they do this in other cities….get this….when a team is bad….i dunno maybe try something? Anything to make them better. Agreed, not much there in terms of trade relationships this early in the season but seriously. Bring Lind up……do something!!!!….who freakin cares if it doesn’t work out. Is the alternative (What’s happning now) any better? I don’t mind the signings of Wilkerson and Menche….what I do mind is the “nothing ventured, nothing gained” approach as being the only approach. Whatever…can’t say much else…We’re bound to break out of this. Maybe in 2010 with a vastly different team and GM. But really, who cares, it’s only the fans that suffer.
I consider myself a pretty rational guy. But seriously Mike, it’s getting a little homerish…this team needs a kick in the pants.
MW: I don’t think that a kick in the pants has any effect other than just optics. I don’t think a move made for the sake of making a move does anything other than “show the fans we’re trying”, it’s just a crutch. A sarcasm button would be AWESOME, though.
- Christopher MarinoniMike,
What a shame that the Jays’ little ‘spark plug’ (man I find that funny) is not due to start tonight. Perhaps he will come back and give us some much needed pop…though I doubt it. Still though, would far sooner see him lead off than Wonkerson.
A question for ya, can you remember the last time that a hitter has produced like Barajas in his last 8 games only to ride the pine for two straight?
And don’t get me wrong I like the GRIT (which Jay fan doesn’t) that Zaun offers, but I’m just sayin’.
MW: Those eight games by Barajas were over about three weeks, and he had a nice double off the wall in one of them before the big games Saturday and Sunday. I’m all for riding the hot hand when you can, but this canonization of Rod Barajas is getting a little silly.
- KeithWasn’t it us Brits who played a major part in burning the White House?
MW: There was no Canada then, we were all Brits.
- Phil SmithThe 1962 Mets batted .215(.598 OPS) w/RISP. So what exactly are you using to measure the “worst offense of all time”?
“Most people stopped reading four paragraphs ago.”
I didn’t know Mike Wilner had the supernatural abilities that would be required to know this.
To Mike Glatt: If you get a hold of BP 2008, you’ll find a great section in the back detailing the current most advanced measures of baserunning. You’ll find that guys like Crawford do add a lot of value, but I get the general feeling that you’re still overvaluing its effect.
And finally Mike, a point blank question: Rate the job that JP has done as a GM from A to F, C being average. Then, state the grade you think a GM would need to perform at from this point on in order to get the Jays into the post-season, considering their current personnel and financial state. I will always cheer like hell for this team, but I have very little faith that JP will be able to get them into the postseason in his tenure with the team.
MW: I’ll give J.P. a solid….hmmmm, I can’t decide between B- and C+. Since you all think I’m an apologist anyway, I’ll go with B-. He successfully shed the team of some ugly, ugly contracts in the early part of his tenure while never letting the team slip into the abyss that Oakland-Minnesota-Tampa Bay-Kansas City etc. found themselves in for years and years, he’s put together a phenomenal pitching staff and the team has looked good coming out of Spring Training each of the last three years. I don’t think it’s up to the G.M. to perform from this point on to get the Jays into the post-season. It’s up to the hitters.
- Dan WHi Mike,
I have some pictures from a few years back of you and Cito Gaston during an interview you did with him at a GM dealership. I can send them to you c/o The Fan 590 if you’d like.
MW: Sure, why not?
- BernardHi Mike,
Here are some factual numbers for you:
Rogers Toronto Blue Jays record when I attend home games in 2008 is 4-0.
Rogers Toronto Blue Jays record when I don’t attend home games in 2008 is 6-11.
With the recent string of seemingly bad luck of hitters smacking the ball directly at defense players, do you think that Jays Nation is not giving enough credit to the opposition for consistently being in the right place at the time? It looks as though they are using the spray charts very effectively, either that or they are getting quite lucky (which has already been established luck doesn’t really exist).
When was the last time D Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox hit a ball towards left field? Why can’t he hit the opposite way?
Aneez
MW: Ortiz hits lots of fly balls to left, just very rarely does he hit anything that way on the ground.
- AneezActually the Jays do have to win 7 more games than the Red Sox if they are, as you say, “just as good as the Yankees and Red Sox.”
MW: But they have to win -2 more games to be “just as good as the Yankees”.
- LexIt truly is frustrating to look at MLB.com’s top 25 player list with 26 others recieving consideration. That is a total of 51 players and not one of them Blue Jays.
This either explains that the Jays continue to get no respect from Major League analysts, or they trully are missing a quality bat.
Player Representatives:
Bos: 5, Phi: 3, Hou: 3, NYM: 3, Det: 3, Cle: 3, Stl: 2, Fla: 2, Col: 2, Ari: 2, Mil: 2, TB: 2, Chc: 2, Atl: 2, Tex: 2, LAD: 2, NYY: 1, SD: 1, SF: 1, CWS: 1, Pit: 1, LAA: 1, Cin: 1, Oak: 1, Sea: 1, Min: 1, Bal: 1
Total 27/30 teams
- ScottTor, KC, Wsh left out.
If the Tigers released Gary Sheffield, do you think the Jays would be interested?
MW: Seeing as they’ve been down a similar road with Frank Thomas, I doubt it.
- Andy“What are they? An average-hitting team unless there are runners in scoring position, in which case they become the worst offense ever? That just doesn’t happen.”
But it does. It’s happening right here, right now. You call it ‘snake-bit’ and I call it ‘broken’ but either way the result is the same. I can’t come up with any kind of panacea for this, and my instinct tells me that there is no point making another fast move. If we continue to be this kind of team all season–and there is nothing in the world to say that we won’t–then I guess we’ll have to suck it up. Again. And see what we can salvage going forward. I am no longer any kind of fan of Rios, but I doubt he’ll have a season this bad next year.
Talking of Rios, maybe this is a dumb thing to say, but where was Ernie Whitt when that ball went to the backstop? OK, Rios should have been paying attention. But shouldn’t Whitt have been watching the play? Shouldn’t he have sent him if he saw Rios just kind of standing there?
MW: It is happening, right here, right now, and it’s been happening for a month and a bit. But the thing in the world to say that the team won’t continue to do this all season is that it’s never happened before. I’ll grant you, there’s a first time for everything, but a team that challenges records for offensive futility should be a team full of poor hitters, and this isn’t that.
- reyesMike, can you do me a favor and find out how many times a manager has put a lineup out there where the number 9 hitter had the highest obp and the leadoff hitter had the lowest obp (min 100ab’s). I can’t believe this has ever happened in the history of baseball until now. If it has never happened before then maybe somebody should tell Gibby he just broke a 100 year old record!
MW: No, I can’t imagine being able to find that out.
- roccoHey Mike, it’s still early..ignore the others. If the Jays maintain the current pace, when is JP gone?
MW: End of this season, probably.
- JeremyListening to JP his despondency is palpable. But much as one wishes to emphathize with his plight, one quickly remembers, he has built a poor offensive club on the foundation of an unproductive minor league system and is reaping the results. There are no position players in the minors putting pressure on the major league group let alone ready and able to fill in when injuries strike. Wells goes down and JP has little choice but to play Rotisserie baseball, take a shot at Wilkerson and Mench and hope one of them gets hot for a month. Disappointing for all concerned.
MW: This is not a poor offensive club. It’s an average one, maybe slightly below.
- Steven ZHi Mike,
Everyone has been calling for a firing of Gibby. My question is if he goes who is the most likely candidate for the job. Is Butterfield really ready to take over that job ? I’m sure many fans would love to see Ernie get a shot at it if he had a chance although his new role as first base coach seems like a demotion. Cito is still involved with the organization as well, I remember you saying in a show last year that he could be a potential Jim Leyland for a club and step in and do great things, do you think that is a possiblity in the Jays future, I know he has been in contention for other jobs in baseball so is there a possiblility he might be interested ? Could he be mearly waiting in the wings for an opportunity ? Also one last thought, Marty Pevey seems to be doing a not so great job at third, communicating with runners, why don’t they put him back at first and let Ernie coach third ?
Aaron
MW: There is some sort of groundswell among the fandom, it seems, that Ernie Whitt deserves a shot at a greater role with this team, even to manage, and it’s based on nothing but the fact that he was a well-liked player. He hasn’t earned any of the confidence people seem to have in him.
- Aaron AWhen it comes to J.P. Ricciardi, the Blue Jays as an organization can’t have it both ways. First, he is portrayed as the Messiah . . . the smartest man in baseball . . . the most important hire in the history of the game. And then, after years of very moderate success, it’s turned around and thrown back at the fans that, “Well, he’s just a GM . . . what can he really do?” Folks, that just doesn’t cut it in the credibility department.
Personally, I believe Ricciardi is neither of the two extremes he’s now being portrayed as. He is neither the Boy Genius that Paul Godfrey continues to beat his chest about, nor is he the baseball equivalent of John Ferguson Jr. or Gord Stellick that many critics want to group him with. He’s just a MLB GM, not unlike most if not all of the 29 others. He has his good days; he has his bad days.
For everyone’s sake and sanity, though, can’t we just drop so much of the focus on him?
MW: He seems to be the thing on which people want to focus, probably because for some reason he’s become the most polarizing sports executive that there’s been in this city in recent memory. I’m happy to blame the players for the team’s ills.
- mike aOk, if it’s not the crackdown on steroids leading to the poor offensive numbers, what do you feel it is? Is the pitching just that much more dominant now?
MW: The thing is, if it was the crackdown on steroid use, it should have affected the pitchers just as much as the hitters. Let’s wait until the weather warms up and then see what the numbers look like across the game.
- CamI have read through most of the posts today just to make sure I don’t repeat the same thing everyone else has. (Original thoughts people)
I am a long time baseball fan, and yes I watch more Jays games then any other team, but I still look at myself as a knowledgable BASEBALL fan. The one thing I see with the Jays more this year then any of the “5 year plan” years, is that the line-up consists of players, for the most part, that would not be starters on perennial playoff teams rosters. They would be bench players. Think about the teams that are always in the playoff hunt. (Yankees/RedSox)Now look at the list of Jays Starters. How many make the cut.
Wilkerson – No
Hill – I’ll call a tie(Cano/Pedroia)
Rios – Yes
Rolen – Yes
Stairs – No
Stewart – No
Overbay – No (Maybe on the Yankees)
Scutaro – No
Zaun/Barajas – No
Injured Starters
Wells – Yes
Eckstein – No
So that being said, when healthy, your starting lineup consists of 3 maybe 4 players out of nine who would start for any other playoff contender in the East. There in a nut shell is your biggest problem.
I think we are expecting one time starting caliber players, B rate starters, or career back-ups to perform like All-Stars. If your line-up consisted of 8, even 7 actual contending team starters, you could hide a Zaun or an Eckstein (And yes I know the entangebles that Ecks brings).
So to sum it up, you can’t make something out of nothing. Expecting a line-up that contains a majority of back-up players to play like all-stars is something I think to many people are doing. So once again the grand 5 year or was it 10 year plan, put in place by JP when he came to Toronto, is nowhere near coming to fruition.
In this ball fans opinion, either a change needs to be made at the GM position or only expect the same type of .500 team that we have and have had for the past 15 years. Because JP has proven from the time he came to Toronto, that one of his weaknesses is judging talent. That is why the team is performing the way it is. We just don’t have the horses.
I’d love to read your thoughts Mike.
MW: I don’t think you’re being fair comparing the Jays to, arguably, the two best offensive teams in the game while also ignoring their pitching. Eight teams make the playoffs.
- Tommy“MW: It’s funny – lots of people think I’m way too hard on the Jays”
Please. Anyone who follows the Jays and listens to the show on a consistent basis knows that isn’t true. Who are these people? Are these the same people who “all think I’m an apologist anyway”? Make up your mind.
“He also has let go of or traded players who have done well or are doing well elsewhere”
I have a feeling he was referring to Chad Gaudin and Frank Thomas.
MW: Chad Gaudin is off to a fine start, as he was last year, but it’s debatable as to whether he’s better than any of the Jays’ current starting five. Regardless, Ricciardi has said that letting Gaudin go was a big mistake. I don’t think that commenter was talking about Thomas, but again, I feel the Jays were painted into a corner with him. Obviously, the people to who think I’m an apologist aren’t the same ones who believe I’m too tough on the Jays. Fantastic point, though.
- AriMike,
Reason #103 to take the A’s and Rays seriously (even more so than the White Sox):
We’ve all been talking a lot around here about trade ideas. J.P.’s protestations aside, the Jays clearly need another bat. We can debate whether the Jays would be better off with Bay, Dunn, or Holliday, but the consensus seems to be they don’t have much depth in the minors to deal, and they can’t afford to move any of their current starters. Other than traveling back in time (Thomas) or risking Selig’s ire (Bonds), no solution seems ideal to acquire that elusive slugger.
The A’s and the Rays, however, are loaded with young talent. While it seems unlikely the A’s would move, say, Gonzalez (or Gonzalez) or any of their other off-season acquisitions, Beane has been willing to make deadline deals to improve his playoff chances in the past. And the Rays are overflowing in top 100 guys like Brignac, McGee, Jennings, Davis, Neimann, Hellickson they could easily flip in a mega-trade–and that’s not touching their two best prospects or any of their young budding stars.
Even if you doubt whether Oakland and Tampa Bay are competitive enough to hang with the big boys right now, they’re both capable of making big big trades in a hurry without hurting their 25 man rosters (something the Jays arguably are not).
MW: They may be in better position to pull off those big trades minor-leagueically, but not so financially. Still, it’d be cool to see a team like that make a big splash.
- MichaelHey Mike,
Keep up the great work!
Do you see Chris Duncan as a good fit with the Jays? Does the fact that his father is the pitching coach(I think) change the way management deals with him?
Just out of curiosity – I’m not suggesting we should trade for either – at the end of ’06 did you agree with the Jays signing Johnson over Catalanotto?
MW: It’s not like it was a choice of one free agent over another, Johnson was in his first year of arbitration-eligibility, I think, and Cat got a long-term deal for a whole lot of money. It wasn’t really a tough decision. I also don’t understand why people think the Cardinals want to trade Chris Duncan. He’s young, controllable and under-market for the next four years and a terrific hitter.
- Ryan GI think that JP is very close to firing line. He hasn’t drafted that well for hitter, the only good hitter that he drafted was aaron hill, nobody else. Yes, I know that the draft is a crapshoot but arn’t you supposed to have more homegrown hitters that were drafted by JP other then hill? Your thoughts.
MW: It’d be nice to have a bunch of great hitters to go along with a bunch of great pitchers, it’s true. But he does have a bunch of great pitchers, which everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring.
- andrewHi Mike.
I have to agree with those who question JP Ricciardi’s draft record to date.
If you look at the ‘cream’ of the Jays current or potential young stars as a whole (Hill, Marcum, Jansson, Thigpen, Lind, Snider, Diaz, Cecil, Ahrens), I think they pale in comparison to the young talent of the Red Sox (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholtz, Papelbon, Lester, Delcarmen, Lowrie, Kalish, Hagadone), Yankees (Cano, Cabrera, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, Horne, McCutchen, Jackson, Brackman), and Rays (Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Kazmir, Davis, McGee, Brignac, Morlan, Price).
One of Riccardi’s strong suits when he was hired was supposed to be sniffing out great prospects and rebuilding the team via the farm system. After six-plus years, it seems he may have been outsmarted by three other teams, and that’s just in his own division. Now obviously, no one knows how all these young guns will pan out, but it sure seems that the future of these other teams look far brighter than the lot of youngsters the Jays have acquired.
Also, I don’t think JP’s performance to date is much better than Gord Ash’s was with the Jays. I suspect the cumulative winning percentage of their respective tenures is similar, and as far as drafts go, wasn’t it Gord Ash who picked Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, and Chris Carpenter during his time as GM of the Jays? It remains to be seen how many of JP’s picks will turn out to be superstars.
MW: It does seem as though J.P.’s original idea of rebuilding a low-payroll team by going after low-ceiling college players in the early going didn’t work out too well, with Russ Adams the most glaring disappointment. But he did turn guys like Adam Peterson, Tom Mastny, David Bush, Zach Jackson and Bubbie Buzachero into solid major-league players. You’re right, the cumulative winning percentages of Ash and Ricciardi’s are similar, but that’s not looking at the whole story.
- JamesYay for us all, it looks better white anyway.
Who in your opinion was the best Canadian born Jay so far?
Personally i always liked Paul Quantrill, who i believe was Canadian.
Is Lance Painter the only ever British born Blue Jay?
MW: Paul Quantrill still is Canadian. What looks better white?
- Phil SmithHey Mike
Always enjoy the blog. Just wondering if you could throw a Sryacuse update in. D Romero seems to really be throwing well (based on the numbers, I obviously havn’t seen him) I see Purcey threw real well his first start back, but I am suprised by some of the positons guys are playing. It looked like Cannon played SS, and I have seen Thigpen at 3rd, 1st, and 2nd. Adams has been back in the infield as well. Any info on what they are doing would be great.
cheers,
MW: Sorry, but there’s already WAY too much on my plate with this blog to give you minor league updates. We do seem to have the occasional commenter who does it, though.
- jackazzI just watched the Mythbusters episode on Baseball myths. They conclude through scientific testing that a) corked bats are worse than regular bats and b)sliding is indeed faster,
What’s your thoughts
MW: I have to see that – if sliding were actually faster, Olympic sprinters would do it.
- Sam McLeanSo, your view is that you don’t agree with the people who rate farm systems and presumably do quite a bit of homework and review data, more than you could possibly have time to do. I happen to believe that they can back up their rating of the Jays having a poor farm system. What sort of analysis or study have you done to support your view that the Jays farm system did not deserve to be ranked in the bottom 3 in all of major league baseball? Then you say that the rankings don’t matter, it’s how you use your farm system. How have the Jays used the farm system, players they drafted, in making additions to the team this year and filling in for injuries and non-performing players? They simply don’t have the players down on the farm at this point. The problems with their farm system will continue to hold this team back from succeeding this year and in the future.
MW: I didn’t say that I know more than the people who work very hard to do those rankings, but that’s what they are – a subjective ranking. If you honestly want to know what the Blue Jays’ farm system is like at this very moment, check back in 2014.
- Blairwhy don’t they play getaway games on thursdays anymore? I live in London and it’s killing me to stay up until midnight to watch the first inning. My life revolves around afternoon starts as it makes me feel like I’m back home for a while. ah… what do you care eh Mike? :(
Overbay should be hitting fourth, rolen 3rd, rios 5th
MW: Sorry – but there are three day games in a row after tomorrow’s opener against the Royals.
- Paul OHey Mike,
I enjoy your blog and JaysTalk. I also enjoy the postage of JaysTalk on this here weblog as I am not often privy to it on our local feed.
I found this quote on the Fox Sports site from the Brewers’ Ryan Braun:
“I almost felt like this series, we didn’t expect to win,” Braun said after the Brewers were swept by the defending-champion Red Sox. “We were competing; I know everybody tried hard. But it’s not about trying hard. You’ve got to expect to win.”
With all the talk this year about the Jays and “killer instincts”, I was wondering if you could comment on the difference between “competing and trying hard” and “expecting to win”. Are they synonyms for one another?
Thanks!
MW: I don’t think they’re the same thing. The San Diego Padres are trying hard and competing every game, but they don’t expect to win. They don’t expect to lose, either, but they don’t walk in with that swagger of a team expecting not to be beaten. Of course, expecting to win doesn’t have anything to do with actually winning.
- MarcIf this blue jays team could score half as many runs a game as they did in 2006 they would in first place in the al east for sure. Also if they could hit with runners in scoring position they wouldnt be 23-25 the would be 35-13!
MW: Well, maybe not 35-13, but close.
- JackIf jp doesn’t come into this organization crowing that the past administrations were incompetent, a whole bunch of us give the guy a bit of a break, but when he comes in and blasts away at Ash, then he should get no break from the fans, because he was the one who set the expectations, he was the one who surrounded himself with the Keith Laws, and couldn’t get rid of guys like Tim Wilken fast enough.
But, then who are we anyways, we fools pay our way into the games because we are fans, and we care.
MW: I don’t remember all this crowing.
- BobI just checked Ricciardi’s draft choices for his first 2 years when he was supposed to be a genius and super scout. From 2002 when he drafted Russ Adams first even though all scouting repoerts mentioned his weak arm, the Jays have 0 yes zero players on their major league roster. From 2003, only Aaron Hill are with the team.Since the jays drafted over 50 players each year, Ricciardi scored less than 2%.
MW: Of course, in 2002 David Bush (2nd round) was part of the Overbay trade, Adam Peterson (3rd) eventually turned into Jeremy Accardo and Bubbie Buzachero (23rd) is now Brian Tallet. From the 2003 draft, Tom Mastny (11th) became John McDonald. And then there was that pitcher, what’s-his-name, that they drafted in the 3rd round. Oh, right. Shaun Marcum.
- FrankI just watched the Mythbusters episode on baseball myths – they found that
a) sliding is faster than running
b) corked bats are half as effective as standard bats – balls came off the bat half as fast
c) humid balls definately go farther
what are your thoughts on the second one?
MW: I’m surprised, but not stunned. I’m stunned by the first one.
- Sam McLeanThe one thing I did not mention in my previous post was the pitching. It has been the one thing that has kept the Jays respectable. You put this staff, the way they have pitched with the Boston offence and wow, the team may have 2 loses so far this year. Now of course I’m being sarcastic. (where is that button) Pitching will only get you so far. The Jays are showing you that now. But lets once again look at who put this staff together. By reading previous posts and listening to certain call in shows I think people need to understand how we got this pitching staff.
Roy Halladay – 1995 (Ash)
A.J. Burnett – FA pick-up (Ricciardi)
Dustin McGowan – 2000 (Ash)
Shaun Marcum – 2003(Ricciardi)
Jesse Litsch – 2004 (Ricciardi)
So yes JP has something to do with getting some of the staff. Now lets look at how they got into the rotation. At the start of last season McGowan was pegged to fight for the 5th starting job, Marcum was pegged for the bullpen and Litsch wasn’t even on the radar. JP had once again gone out and picked up a couple of cast offs to try and fill the last 2 starting jobs where Halladay, Burnett and Chacin were 1, 2, 3. The only reason the 3 youngsters that are in there now, got there, is because once again the talent that JP tried to pick up on the cheap didn’t work out and Chacin got hurt. If it wasn’t for the “bad luck” injuries and the bad judge of talent on JP’s part in the off season, we still maybe looking at McGowan and Litsch in the minors and Marcum in the pen. So really, JP didn’t make the decision and see these young pitchers as being ready, they had to put them in as they were the only options left.
So yes he saw the talent in Marcum and Litsch when he drafted them, but didn’t make the decision to use them until he was forced to by injury.
So really, what does he actually do?
Replace him, hire better pro scouts. Keep the pitching staff together, (other than Burnett who will opt out at the end of the season. So trade him now while he has value. Give Purcey an extended look to fill the 5th spot with Burnett gone, and he may shake the jitters)and blow up the roster of fielders. Because it is the everyday players who are costing us any chance of competing for the playoffs. With this pitching staff, at least you know you can’t get much worse if you change the hitters.
Once again Mike I look forward to reading your thoughts. Thanks for the forum.
MW: I’ve answered the point about Marcum and McGowan being “lucky finds” way too many times to do it again.
- TommyThis is officially depressing. The Angels announcers have seen this team for only 2 games and already they can’t stop talking about how badly the Jays need Bonds. Swallow some arrogance and open your eyes to reality, JP.
MW: The Blue Jays not signing Barry Bonds has as much to do with J.P. Ricciardi being arrogant as the Maple Leafs missing the playoffs three straight years has to do with John McCain winning the Republican nomination for President of the U.S.
- AriHey mike
some sports shows are posing the question “should the jays trade one of there starting pitchers for a hitter?” In my opinion i think if they need a hitter they shouldn’t break up there staff. And people are taking this hitting slump way to seriously. I was just wondering your opinion on that question?
p.s. I wish JP would consider getting Bonds
MW: I don’t think you can get enough hitting for one starter to make up for the loss of whatever starter you deal.
- blakeMike, it’s not as if I’m not crediting JP for the drafting of Jeremy Accardo, Casey Janessen, Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litish, but I think their needs to be more good hitters other then hill drafted by JP over a 7 year span. And let’s be honest, JP basically ignored Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan. What message does it send to them when you try to sign Ted Lilly and Gil Meche. He basically didn’t think Shawn Marcum or Dustin McGowan that highly.
MW: It sends the message that he’s trying to go out and sign established, good pitchers over two unproven kids. Ricciardi didn’t draft Accardo, by the way.
- andrewI listen to the show and you are sounding like Stormin Normin of the fan of many years ago……and its fun to listen to .
MW: I loved listening to Rumack back in the early 90s, but I don’t think I do the same stuff. Glad you like it, though!
- AlastairTo folow up on you comment of it being fair comparing the Jays to the Yankees and the Bosox. The reason I compare the Jays to them is because those are the 2 teams that the Jays have to beat to make the playoffs. If the Bosox and the Yankees finish ahead of the Jays, it’ll be yet another year for this fan watching some other team play in October and not the Blue Jays. So I think everyone including the Jays management need to and have to compare themselves to the 2 best offences in the league.
MW: Then they have to double the payroll. And you can’t discount the pitching.
- TommyWho are your top 10 in the AL and NL people who you would count on to steal a baee?
MW: Sorry, top 10 lists are too much work. I’ll take Carl Crawford in the A.L. and Michael Bourn in the N.L.
- SunkenDPr0I just checked Brad Wilkerson’s career stats on
mlb.com and he has struck out 305 times in 3025 at bats, a beautiful 30%. When your lead off hitter strikes out that much, it sure doesn’t inspire his teammates. career average .248. Wow.
MW: The strikeouts don’t bother me so much, this is a guy who used to get on base all the time even though he struck out a lot. He doesn’t do it any more.
- FrankMike,
I think the reason everyone wants Bonds has nothing to do with the expectation that he’ll come in and hit 45 homeruns for the rest of the year, and that the Jays will win the World Series. They want him because for the first time in 15 years there will be some excitement back with the team. Were talking front page news in every major newspaper in North America.
This city is just craving some excitement. The Leafs are terrible, the Raptors have always been bad and the Jays are the measuring stick for mediocrity. If were gonna finish 5 games below or above .500 again, can’t we at least have some fun doing it?
MW: I’m all for Bonds, but because I think he can help this offense tremendously.
- JakeTo Frank in post #111 — 305 of 3025 is not 30% — it is actually just a hair over 10%.
Like Mike says, what real difference does it make how a guy makes an out? At least a strikeout is (usually) only one out, not two.
MW: Excellent math skills, Norm. Way to not get confused by all those threes.
- NormThis is to karim kanji.
He asked about the Toronto Maple Leafs Baseball team that plays in the IBL at Cristie Pits.
I really enjoy watching a game at Christie Pits. Go to a store buy yourself some Big League Chew and enjoy some baseball! It is free and they play really good baseball. I saw a player for Hamilton make the most impressive catch I’ve ever seen live (and I’ve been to TONS of games. If you are heading down to the games sit on the hill even though it is higher up. You’ll be able to see a little better because you won’t have to look through the chain-link fence. Also they give out free programs.
Check it out, you won’t regret it (same with you Mike, although there are few off days that would have a game…)
- AaronI just read that Juan Pierre officially has the smallest hat size in MLB. JP should pursue him so that way the Jays can have the largest (Mench) and smallest melons in the league on the same team. Might help bring some exposure north of the border. See these are the things JP should be thinking of.
MW: You should send your application in to the marketing department!
- BrettMath obviously isn’t Frank’s strong suit. 305 out of 3025 is right around 10%, nowhere near 30%. Mike, did you not pick up on that? Or were you being nice?
MW: I’m really trying to be nice lately. Is it working?
- darrenMike, have you have considered doing a sports talk show on the radio now since Chuck Swirisky is gojng to leave to go to the Bulls and they need to replace him from the 1 to 4 hour. Has that ever crossed your mind because you seem to know about a lot of sports?
MW: I like popping in and hosting occasionally on the Fan, but on a regular basis? I’d MUCH prefer to keep doing what I’m doing. Being the Fan’s baseball guy is a great gig!
- andrewHi Mike:
I have never been a fire JR person, or really even a fire Gibby person, but I just don’t understand how a manager can put out 30+ different line ups, and not seem to have a clue what he is doing, and not have JR call him on it.
Wilkerson should NOT be leading off, ever, ever, ever. Maybe at one time, he was good, but the Mariners kicked him to the curb for a reason. And they are having as much trouble with offense as the Jays are. Hill was hitting great until Gibbons put him up in the 2 spot, because he “thinks” that one day he will be a good #2 hitter.
Rios is in some kind of funk, and should be moved down in the line up to take some of the pressure off him. He obviously, is having trouble dealing with it this year. Then you have Barajas who finally gets some playing time, starts to hit, and he gets put back on the bench, while the team continues in their same old patterns of hitting into dp.
It seems to me that Gibbons gets these ideas in his head, and he just won’t let them go, even when they don’t work.
But my main question is about Denbo. According to JP, he works so hard studying all these videos etc. And has all the Jays buying into his “new theory” about just getting on base and letting the next guy get you home.
It seems to me that he has taken all the aggression out of these hitters, while they stand around waiting to get a walk. Why is it that no one asks JP about Denbo?
MW: Denbo hasn’t taken all the aggression out of the hitters – for everyone you see standing around waiting to get a walk (a ridiculous notion) there’s someone swinging at the first pitch. How can you criticize Gibbons both for “getting ideas in his head and not letting them go” and also using too many different line-ups?
- sandyMike I’ll get the Gaston interview pics. this weekend and send them off to you on Monday.
MW: Thanks.
- BernardI can criticize Gibbons for getting ideas in his head and not letting them go, if they are the wrong way to handle a staff. Using 30 + lineups is a sign of a manager, trying desperately to hang onto his job. It is a sign of a manager that doesn’t know how to use the assets that he has.
A ridiculous notion that players aren’t standing around watching the 3rd strike down the middle of the plate, while hoping for a walk? Have you been watching Rios this year? He goes to that plate like he is afraid, and when he strikes out, he puts his head down and rushes back to the dugout. Hill has finally started hitting again, since he went away from watching that first strike down the middle of the plate.
Even Ashby has talked about Rios fooling around during batting practise, and not doing his work. Isn’t that Denbo’s job?
You didn’t answer my original question and that was why no one has asked JP about making Denbo accountable for his “hitters”.
MW: You can’t have a revolving door at the hitting coach position. Listen to Wednesday night’s show for J.P.’s answer about Denbo.
- sandyThanks Aaron!
I’ve met Paul Spolgeric (sp?) a couple of times after his Blue Jays days. I think he’s into home renovations…Nice guy.
Hope to catch a game this summer!
KK
MW: Spoljaric, but yeah, really nice guy.
- karim kanjiRe: Post #102
Yo, Frank, did you check and see how the Red Sox did in 2002 and 2003 in the draft?
Seems the mighty Theo Epstien must be a bum in the draft room too since he has put exactly TWO full time players on the Red Sox from those two drafts (Lester and Papelbon)
!
The Yankees? Try Zero. NOT ONE PLAYER on the current active roster from those two drafts. And only a couple of middle relievers to ever do anything.
But hey, why stop at 2003? In 2004 the Red Sox got…ONE more guy, Pedoria. The Yanks finally got their first notable guy in Hughes, and the Jays got Janssen and Litsch.
So, either JP can draft a little bit or Epstien can’t.
Can’t have that 2% both ways, chief.
MW: The Red Sox and Yankees have a bunch of great young players and the Blue Jays don’t. Or something.
- WillRain…but let’s face it people. Spoljaric was BRUTAL! I get that he is Canadian, but I’m not that patriotic.
MW: Where did that come from?
- Vito From Hamilton