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	<title>Comments on: Well, What Do You Know?</title>
	<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/</link>
	<description></description>
	<pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2008 09:13:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Shmuel</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4627</link>
		<dc:creator>Shmuel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 15:21:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4627</guid>
		<description>I'll admit, I enjoy being contrary for the sake of it.  But while I get your point, I'll add that even for someone in his prime, there are many factors that affect how a player performs, and so I really don't buy into the idea that a guy's chances of, say, getting on base are the same every time he comes to the plate, even within a narrow range when he's healthy and at his peak.  Somehow things seem to work out in the aggregate, but I'm not sure I'd make assumptions about any discrete data point.  I think someone else might have pointed this out - that baseball is not quite as straigtforward as flipping a coin.

In any event, what I really want to say is that I can't understand J.P. for the life of me.  The Jays lose both of their shortstops, so he goes out and gets a couple of outfielders?!?  That makes little sense to me, in and of itself.  (Unless he only thought of it after Wells got injured, in which case it makes more sense, but still not too much sense; but I was under the impression that Wells got injured after they were acquired).  But add the fact that the Jays have Adam Lind, who is better than both of them, and who the Jays gave up on way too early.  Add the fact that (hate to bring this up) the Jays had so many outfielders they supposedly didn't have any room for Reed Johnson.  Now, as you pointed out, when all the injured players return there will be one player too many - but I wouldn't be so quick to think that either Wilkerson or Mench will be the odd man out.  Think about it: the Jays been after these guys for a few years, so they're not going to just let either one of them go so easily.  Personally, I think McDonald will be the guy to get axed; the Jays have repeatedly shown that they don't understand the value he brings to the team.  It will be a sad day in Toronto when Johnny Mac is left out to dry.

MW:  I have trouble with the "two shorstops went down so J.P. got two outfielders" argument.  Two shortsops went down for probably no more than 15-18 games each, and the Jays had a back-up with the big-league team in Scutaro and another in AAA in Velandia.  They didn't need to go out and get another shortstop.  What they needed was a boost to the offense, so they took flyers on some freely available talent and brought in Wilkerson and Mench.  Mench they needed, because they didn't have a platoon partner for Stairs at DH.  I'll give you that the Jays don't see McDonald's value the way the rest of us seem to, but he has a two-year contract.  I don't think he goes and they keep Joe Inglett.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll admit, I enjoy being contrary for the sake of it.  But while I get your point, I&#8217;ll add that even for someone in his prime, there are many factors that affect how a player performs, and so I really don&#8217;t buy into the idea that a guy&#8217;s chances of, say, getting on base are the same every time he comes to the plate, even within a narrow range when he&#8217;s healthy and at his peak.  Somehow things seem to work out in the aggregate, but I&#8217;m not sure I&#8217;d make assumptions about any discrete data point.  I think someone else might have pointed this out - that baseball is not quite as straigtforward as flipping a coin.</p>
<p>In any event, what I really want to say is that I can&#8217;t understand J.P. for the life of me.  The Jays lose both of their shortstops, so he goes out and gets a couple of outfielders?!?  That makes little sense to me, in and of itself.  (Unless he only thought of it after Wells got injured, in which case it makes more sense, but still not too much sense; but I was under the impression that Wells got injured after they were acquired).  But add the fact that the Jays have Adam Lind, who is better than both of them, and who the Jays gave up on way too early.  Add the fact that (hate to bring this up) the Jays had so many outfielders they supposedly didn&#8217;t have any room for Reed Johnson.  Now, as you pointed out, when all the injured players return there will be one player too many - but I wouldn&#8217;t be so quick to think that either Wilkerson or Mench will be the odd man out.  Think about it: the Jays been after these guys for a few years, so they&#8217;re not going to just let either one of them go so easily.  Personally, I think McDonald will be the guy to get axed; the Jays have repeatedly shown that they don&#8217;t understand the value he brings to the team.  It will be a sad day in Toronto when Johnny Mac is left out to dry.</p>
<p>MW:  I have trouble with the &#8220;two shorstops went down so J.P. got two outfielders&#8221; argument.  Two shortsops went down for probably no more than 15-18 games each, and the Jays had a back-up with the big-league team in Scutaro and another in AAA in Velandia.  They didn&#8217;t need to go out and get another shortstop.  What they needed was a boost to the offense, so they took flyers on some freely available talent and brought in Wilkerson and Mench.  Mench they needed, because they didn&#8217;t have a platoon partner for Stairs at DH.  I&#8217;ll give you that the Jays don&#8217;t see McDonald&#8217;s value the way the rest of us seem to, but he has a two-year contract.  I don&#8217;t think he goes and they keep Joe Inglett.</p>
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		<title>By: Rob_NS</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4597</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob_NS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 11:24:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4597</guid>
		<description>Oops... Make that Joe Maddon! John Madden's opinion might not mean as much.

MW:  Right.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops&#8230; Make that Joe Maddon! John Madden&#8217;s opinion might not mean as much.</p>
<p>MW:  Right.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4585</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 04:45:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4585</guid>
		<description>Well, it's a day late, so I don't know if you'll comment on this (which we as fans, really appreciate, and realize how much work you put into this), but I thought it odd that you didn't mention the fact that Litsch didn't issue a walk - again!  I know he only pitched five and some, but still, impressive.

MW:  VERY impressive.  Litsch has now gone 25 innings over four starts without issuing a walk.  The last guy he walked was Nathan Haynes, on Arpil 22nd at Disneyworld.  Litsch hasn't actually walked someone in a real major-league stadium in over a month, not since April 11th at Texas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, it&#8217;s a day late, so I don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;ll comment on this (which we as fans, really appreciate, and realize how much work you put into this), but I thought it odd that you didn&#8217;t mention the fact that Litsch didn&#8217;t issue a walk - again!  I know he only pitched five and some, but still, impressive.</p>
<p>MW:  VERY impressive.  Litsch has now gone 25 innings over four starts without issuing a walk.  The last guy he walked was Nathan Haynes, on Arpil 22nd at Disneyworld.  Litsch hasn&#8217;t actually walked someone in a real major-league stadium in over a month, not since April 11th at Texas.</p>
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		<title>By: B-rad from Calgary</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4584</link>
		<dc:creator>B-rad from Calgary</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 04:22:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4584</guid>
		<description>Speaking of Pat Tabler...he had a pure moment of prophecy during the broadcast tonight in the first inning when he said, "If you're Matt Stairs you're looking for one pitch right here, a fastball and you're gonna try and put 4 quick ones on the board"...and 4.5 seconds later Stairs did that exact thing...grand salami.

MW: Swell.  Ashby did that with Wilkerson's go-ahead RBI single in the 4th, too!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking of Pat Tabler&#8230;he had a pure moment of prophecy during the broadcast tonight in the first inning when he said, &#8220;If you&#8217;re Matt Stairs you&#8217;re looking for one pitch right here, a fastball and you&#8217;re gonna try and put 4 quick ones on the board&#8221;&#8230;and 4.5 seconds later Stairs did that exact thing&#8230;grand salami.</p>
<p>MW: Swell.  Ashby did that with Wilkerson&#8217;s go-ahead RBI single in the 4th, too!</p>
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		<title>By: Colin</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4583</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 03:55:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4583</guid>
		<description>re: Comment 88

I also read that article and I believe Rob_NS was referring to Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay manager, and not John Madden the football analyst. John is, however, Joe Maddon's middle name, although I suspect that is purely a coincidence.

MW:  Ah-ha!  Now that makes more sense.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>re: Comment 88</p>
<p>I also read that article and I believe Rob_NS was referring to Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay manager, and not John Madden the football analyst. John is, however, Joe Maddon&#8217;s middle name, although I suspect that is purely a coincidence.</p>
<p>MW:  Ah-ha!  Now that makes more sense.</p>
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		<title>By: Shmuel</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4582</link>
		<dc:creator>Shmuel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 03:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4582</guid>
		<description>I've been out of the loop for a while, and I have some things on my mind about what's been going on lately with the Jays.  But I saw this and couldn't resist:

"When a guy with a .360 lifetime OBP comes to the plate, he has about a 36% chance of getting on base, even if he’s just hitting .220/.310/.330 at that point."

That's like saying that the Jays should have signed Julio Franco before he got a chance to call it quits.  Or perhaps they should go after Hank Aaron and convince him to play one more season.

Not that I'm calling Overbay old, I'm just trying to show how faulty that line of reasoning is.  On the contrary, I've got no problems with Overbay, I think he's great, and I've felt all along and still feel that he'll come around.  I think he should be hitting 5th, in the heart of the order.  I feel like he hits better in the middle, that Stairs will do whatever he'll do wherever he is in the lineup, and that it's better not to have a guy in the heart of the order who frequently gets taken out for pinch runners late in close games (and Barry Bonds is not a helpful counter-example).

MW:  Sorry - I should have added that Overbay is 31.  You're just being contrary for the sake of it - you couldn't for a second have thought that was what I meant.  Thanks for adding to the debate, though!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been out of the loop for a while, and I have some things on my mind about what&#8217;s been going on lately with the Jays.  But I saw this and couldn&#8217;t resist:</p>
<p>&#8220;When a guy with a .360 lifetime OBP comes to the plate, he has about a 36% chance of getting on base, even if he’s just hitting .220/.310/.330 at that point.&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s like saying that the Jays should have signed Julio Franco before he got a chance to call it quits.  Or perhaps they should go after Hank Aaron and convince him to play one more season.</p>
<p>Not that I&#8217;m calling Overbay old, I&#8217;m just trying to show how faulty that line of reasoning is.  On the contrary, I&#8217;ve got no problems with Overbay, I think he&#8217;s great, and I&#8217;ve felt all along and still feel that he&#8217;ll come around.  I think he should be hitting 5th, in the heart of the order.  I feel like he hits better in the middle, that Stairs will do whatever he&#8217;ll do wherever he is in the lineup, and that it&#8217;s better not to have a guy in the heart of the order who frequently gets taken out for pinch runners late in close games (and Barry Bonds is not a helpful counter-example).</p>
<p>MW:  Sorry - I should have added that Overbay is 31.  You&#8217;re just being contrary for the sake of it - you couldn&#8217;t for a second have thought that was what I meant.  Thanks for adding to the debate, though!</p>
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		<title>By: Jet Li</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4581</link>
		<dc:creator>Jet Li</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 03:11:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4581</guid>
		<description>Alex Rios looks like he can't hit t-ball the way he's swinging right now.  Maybe move him down to 8th and everyone else up a notch in the batting order?

MW:  His last three at-bats today looked great, and MUCH different from about the last 50 or so.  He may be starting to come around.  Maybe a lesson from Matt Stairs was just what he needed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alex Rios looks like he can&#8217;t hit t-ball the way he&#8217;s swinging right now.  Maybe move him down to 8th and everyone else up a notch in the batting order?</p>
<p>MW:  His last three at-bats today looked great, and MUCH different from about the last 50 or so.  He may be starting to come around.  Maybe a lesson from Matt Stairs was just what he needed.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Rios</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4580</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Rios</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 03:08:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4580</guid>
		<description>If anyone has found my swing, I'd appreciate it back. I'm lookin' at you, Chipper!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If anyone has found my swing, I&#8217;d appreciate it back. I&#8217;m lookin&#8217; at you, Chipper!</p>
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		<title>By: Ari</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4579</link>
		<dc:creator>Ari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 03:03:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4579</guid>
		<description>Pat Tabler was talking about driving in runners in scoring position and how crucial it is to change your approach at the plate in certain situations...so I decided to look into his career splits to see if the mouth matched the bat. Here's what I came across, and it astonished me.

Bases Empty : .261/.324/.353
Men On : .305/.368/.408
RISP : .317/.388/.432
Bases Loaded : .489/.505/.693

A clutch hitter?!

MW:  Tabler was patently ridiculous with the bases loaded, a fact well known when he played.  I often wonder if now he raises his broadcasting to a different level with the bases loaded.  I don't know if his increases are statistically significant, but it certainly seems that way.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pat Tabler was talking about driving in runners in scoring position and how crucial it is to change your approach at the plate in certain situations&#8230;so I decided to look into his career splits to see if the mouth matched the bat. Here&#8217;s what I came across, and it astonished me.</p>
<p>Bases Empty : .261/.324/.353<br />
Men On : .305/.368/.408<br />
RISP : .317/.388/.432<br />
Bases Loaded : .489/.505/.693</p>
<p>A clutch hitter?!</p>
<p>MW:  Tabler was patently ridiculous with the bases loaded, a fact well known when he played.  I often wonder if now he raises his broadcasting to a different level with the bases loaded.  I don&#8217;t know if his increases are statistically significant, but it certainly seems that way.</p>
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		<title>By: Scotty</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4578</link>
		<dc:creator>Scotty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2008 02:11:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2008/05/14/well-what-do-you-know/#comment-4578</guid>
		<description>Hey Mike. Maybe you touched on this and I missed it, but why is Purcey pitching on friday?  Also with monday as on off day why don't the Jays pitch Halladay on tuesday and push Litsch back a day.  If it were me I would have my Ace pitch every five days.  Teams don't seem to do this with off days why?  Thanks a bunch. Scotty.

MW:  Purcey is pitching on Friday because of the doubleheader they played on Monday.  They need him to avoid throwing Burnett or Marcum on short rest.  I'm with you on keeping Halladay on his regular day, a lot of teams do skip their 5th guy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Mike. Maybe you touched on this and I missed it, but why is Purcey pitching on friday?  Also with monday as on off day why don&#8217;t the Jays pitch Halladay on tuesday and push Litsch back a day.  If it were me I would have my Ace pitch every five days.  Teams don&#8217;t seem to do this with off days why?  Thanks a bunch. Scotty.</p>
<p>MW:  Purcey is pitching on Friday because of the doubleheader they played on Monday.  They need him to avoid throwing Burnett or Marcum on short rest.  I&#8217;m with you on keeping Halladay on his regular day, a lot of teams do skip their 5th guy.</p>
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