I (obviously) agree with you about the Jays’ playoff chances; disagree with you about Bonds. I say SIGN HIM. (Really. Anyone.)

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Tom,

Don’t have that info, but it would be interesting.

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Mike,

If you’re saying curing their woes with RISP alone gets them to the playoffs, I disagree. The numbers don’t support it–not without some real luck. But if JP can somehow improve this offense without hurting their run prevention very much, well, that can only be a good thing.

PECOTA is certainly not infallible, I just used that as an example. I also mentioned that there are a number of other bases for win% from this point on that would give similar results. Keep in mind though Mike, that as you spout off about how if these guys were hitting “the way they should be”, PECOTA has been proven to give the best approximation of “the way they should be”. I’m sure it gives a better approximation than whatever you’ve come up with in your head. I have no problem with you saying ‘the way they should be w/ RISP”, but especially early in the year you would often give that line about their entire performance.

Bonds is one of many, but he is the best, and therefore most notorious. He also gives off the impression of an a*****. If I hated guys who did steroids, I’d hate all of them as much as I did Bonds. But, he is the epitome and the standard by which others are measured because he is so damn good, and I can certainly respect those who feel that signing him would be a much bigger statement on the PED issue than signing Zaun would be.

MW: So it’s OK to sign ‘roiders if they’re not really good? It’s not just you, but that seems to be the argument from so many people and it makes ZERO sense to me.

Any idea on what their LD% is in RISP and 2 out RISP situations, because that’s the number we need to look at when talking about this team. I don’t think LD% gets looked at in clutch situations though: pity that. You have to admit though that .238 and .227 are incredibly low figures in those situations and that once they improve them which they’re bound to we’ll start seeing some runs.

MW: No idea, and there’s no one number that needs to be looked at in any situation.

Mike, I really, really hope you understand and don’t dispute the point we’re trying to make, because it’s an extremely important one.

“Why can’t they be a .580 ballclub that gets as lucky for a month as they were unlucky for a month?”

They may very well go through a streak just as ‘lucky’ as the ‘unlucky’ stretch they just had, but the truth is that the odds are just in much in favour of yet another ‘unlucky’ stretch as they are a lucky stretch.

Also, I’m guessing Alex knows it’s a fact in the same way you know that none of the Devil Rays, Athletics, or White Sox will go without having a 17-21 stretch is a fact.(The odds of this happening and the Jays making the playoffs aren’t all that different when using many probabilities that were projected at the start of the year. ie: If we simmed the remainder of their seasons based on preseason PECOTA projections.)

“He is SO not everything that’s wrong with the game”

I know you believe that, but for a lot of people, he does epitomize most of what is wrong with the game. That’s something you’re going to have to live with.

MW: I can live with it, but it’s not true. He’s one of HUNDREDS, if not thousands of players who (allegedly) used illegal performance-enhancing drugs. And what’s with the infallibility of PECOTA?

At the start of the season I saw the Jays as a 85 win team who might win 90 with a little luck (ie. if people performed to expectations AND everyone stayed healthy–possible, but to my mind improbable.) Now it’s looking like they’ll need that luck just to get back on track to 85 wins.

With the disappointing starts of the Tigers, Indians, Yankees (and to some extent Red Sox), and the surprising starts of the A’s, Rays, and White Sox, you’re right that the Jays still have a real chance. But my point is that even if their hitting normalises, they’re still facing long odds. Curing their woes with RISP alone doesn’t get this team to the playoffs. It just means they’ll cease sucking.

Thanks for the opportunity to follow this little argument. I admit I’m slightly less pessimistic about the team now than I was before I started this exercise, even if I still don’t see a way we can expect 90+ wins (and a playoff spot) without another major roster move. J.P. has said that he’s done making deals… fortunately, I’ve learned not to take J.P. at his word.

MW: Yeah, that’d be a mistake. I’m not sure why you only saw that Jays as an 85-win team at the beginning of the season, but that’s your opinion and you’re welcome to it. I believe that curing their woes with RISP does, in fact, get this team to the playoffs.

MW: How is it that you know this for a fact? And how can we make a profit on your ability to see the future?

MW: I’m surprised, because I didn’t think Bay hit even 20 last year. Still it was an awful year by his standards, what with the .327 obp and .418 slg. I didn’t say I didn’t want Bay here, but that Dustin McGowan was too much to give up. I think the threesome you suggest is too much, as well – the price tag doesn’t have to be that high. I’d be interested to see what Bay’s HR per plate appearances numbers are, since he walks so much more than Wells and Rolen, at least, and more than Stairs.

MW: Isn’t it, like, a 1-in-14 million chance of hitting the 6/49? I daresay that’s a little different.

MW: I went to high school with a kid named Danny Mammon.

Tried to phone in tonight but Alberta folk just can’t contend. I just wanted to bring some ringing endorsement Gibby’s way. I think since his mini blow-up after Jesse Litsch’s “not so great” game in Orlando Gibby has got Jesse pitching to his strengths. He’s hitting for contact, not giving up walks, which sometimes leads to home runs albeit the solo variety. Low and behold there he sits at 5-1. These things should also be looked at when judging horse-whipped John Gibbons. He is motivating his guys, and people need to lay off, because as bad as the (clutch) hitting has been the pitching has somewhat been lost in the frustration of Blue Jays fans.

Keep up the great work Mike.

MW: It’s “lo and behold”, but congrats on being one of the only people so far to actually give John Gibbons some credit for what the pitching staff is doing! He deserves it at least as much as he deserves the crap he takes for the hitting woes.