11:40 PM Eastern
I’m sure if you look back in the archives of this fine blog you might find that I’ve written more than once that the Blue Jays had hit rock bottom. The 1-0 loss to the Red Sox at Fenway and Saturday night’s 12-0 pounding in Cleveland spring to mind immediately. I think, though, that both those instances were passed tonight in the nightcap of the double-dip in Cleveland, first in the 5th inning, and then in the 9th.
In the 5th, I don’t know that it was so much “rock bottom” as it was summing up the Jays’ season so far in a nutshell. Kevin Mench and Marco Scutaro lead off with line singles, bringing Lyle Overbay to the plate. With the runners going, Overbay squares up a tough lefty in Cliff Lee and hits a rope back up the middle. In a normal baseball world with a normal baseball team, it’s an RBI single to centre, runners at first and third, here we go on the way to a big inning. With your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays, the best-hitting team ever to not be able to score at all, it’s the 14th unassisted triple play in major-league history.
The beauty of the unassisted triple play, the rarest event in the game, is that it only takes a split-second, and sometimes you don’t even realize it’s jaw-droppingness until a few beats after it’s done. Asdrubal Cabrera made a nice diving catch to his right, and the rest was cake. Doesn’t seem like such a big deal, but man oh man. And how cool was it that a guy who had turned the trick 40 years ago was sitting in the stands watching? Way more eerie than Kelly Gruber hanging out at SkyDome the night Jeff Frye hit for the cycle.
So the UTP gets turned, folks marvel, and the Jays go back to their requisite offensive flaccitude until the 9th inning (excepting a Scott Rolen ballboy-aided double), all the while watching Shaun Marcum pitch his best game of what’s been an eye-poppingly terrific season - 8 innings of two-hitter without a walk, retiring the last 15 hitters he faced. As every Jays pitcher does, Marcum pitched with absolutely no margin for error, and pitched brilliantly.
In the 9th, the Jays’ bats spring to life. They’d been shut out for an incredible 30 straight innings, and had gone a total of 39 having scored only one run. But Shannon Stewart walks and is bunted to second by Aaron Hill (solid move, because Hill had hardly hit a thing for a couple of weeks). Alex Rios follows with a blistering line drive down the first-base line for a go-ahead RBI double. In the real world, anyway. In bizarro Blue Jay-land, he’s robbed by a fantastic leaping grab to his left by Victor Martinez, the first baseman who HAPPENS TO BE A FREAKING CATCHER and has no business whatsoever making that play.
Still, all is not lost because Stewart is smart enough not to get doubled up. The inning stays alive for Rolen, who hits a grounder into the 5-6 hole that Jhonny Peralta can’t get over to first in time. Once again, right out of the 2008 Blue Jays playbook - a hit with a runner in scoring position that doesn’t actually score a run. Kevin Mench is next, and he rips a line shot of his own, a laser beam to right field, and Franklin Gutierrez lays out to make a fantastic diving catch, stunningly not breaking his wrist in the bargain.
That, ladies and gentlemen, was absolute rock-flippin’-bottom. Twice robbed of a go-ahead hit, each time by an amazing defensive play. It simply cannot get any worse. And after B.J. Ryan gets the meat of the Indian order in order in the 9th, good things start to happen.
A pinch-single by Matt Stairs starts it, then a grounder up the middle that’s usually a Blue-Jays-Special 6-4-3 double play instead goes off the left elbow of pitcher Rafael Betancourt and ricochets towards third, but not fast enough to get anybody out. A sacrifice bunt, properly executed by Gregg Zaun. After an intentional walk to load the bases, Stewart refuses to look at strike three with a runner at third in extra innings again, and gets into one for a sac fly deep enough to advance all three baserunners! Hill, with the pressure off, blows the game wide open with a hard single to centre to plate two more.
Snakeface comes in to work the 10th, and just like that, a Blue Jays’ win.
Could it be over? Could this team now begin hitting to even slightly below its capabilities with runners in scoring position as opposed to slightly below mine? We won’t know until tomorrow, but any sign is a good sign, especially after plunging to the depths they hit in the top of the 9th.
I have long said that John Gibbons doesn’t deserve to lose his job, and that firing him wouldn’t be the right thing to do, but I believe that had the Jays not scored at all today, and been swept by the Indians having scored just one run over four games, Gibbons would not have been running the show tomorrow. It would neither have been right nor fair, but I think it would have been done. Now, if the Jays win four out of the next five, everything will be back on the path to fine, and a good man won’t be looking for work.
There’s lots of work to do yet, but as I said on a JaysTalk in which I didn’t yell at anyone (what’s wrong with me?), the Jays are one game behind the Yankees and Indians and a game and a half ahead of the Tigers as we speak. This thing isn’t even close to being close to being over. Still, this is a team that has only scored in three out of the last FIFTY INNINGS it has played. That takes the definition of craptacular to new heights.
But they scored three in the last one. It’s got to end sometime, and there’s no time like right now.
Remember, there’ll be pre-pre-game shows Tuesday and Wednesday with the Jays off to the Central Time Zone! 7:00 pm Eastern on the Fan590 and on this very website.
Comments are welcome, as always, let’s keep The JaysTalk going 24/7!
Mike, sorry if this is obvious, but why did Ryan get the win? I thought that since the Jays scored in the tenth, the pitcher of record is the dude who… starts the tenth? Finishes it? What does the ninth have to do with it?
MW: The guy who throws the last pitch for the Blue Jays before the winning run scores gets the win. Ryan did that.
- RussellMike,
great read. first time posting so be easy ;)
this team can be summed up in one simple and easy word…FRUSTRATING! Now granted, it was nice to come away with a win but i still believe change needs to come.
No not the usual suspects; “Fire Gibbons, JP has to go” blah blah blah. My beef is with Mr. Denbo (spelling?). Two or three seasons ago the Jays were one of the American League’s best hitting clubs, the following year they tank, despite being the hitting coach of the very same players who were the cream of the crop the previous season Mickey Brantley was still let go when the bad hitting got worse. How is it that Mr.Denbo is still around?
Now i know he can’t go up there and swing the bat for these so called proffesional hitters, but i mean come on!
Something has to happen to bring about a change. This team is WAY better then they are playing and in my opinion a shake up might be a blessing.
In other thoughts, just a little something that has me scratching my head…
It could be argued that the NL East is as tough if not tougher a division then the AL East with the likes of Philly, Atlanta, and New York. So with that being said, how the H3LL are the Florida Marlins leading that division? With no real superstar, a manager whom which i’ve never even heard of and a team payroll less then that of Alex Rios’ contract extension these guys have almost double the HRs as Toronto and are 6 games over .500
How Mr. Wilner, how do these guys do it? what do they do or have that
Toronto does not?
keep up the great work…
Cheers
MW: Thanks for the post. First off, though, it can’t be argued that the NL East is a tougher division than the AL East. It’s simply not so. This holds even if the Phillies sweep the Jays this weekend. The Marlins are off to a terrific start because right now they’re hitting a bunch of home runs, getting great pitching out of the bullpen (last night notwithstanding) and riding two hot starters, one of whom is Mark Hendrickson. They will be an afterthought when it’s all said and done.
- slomo76I don’t think firing Gary Denbo will solve anything, he’s not the one taking the bat to the plate.
Thanks for the optimistic take on this game, Mike. Lord knows Jays fans need it. What an incredibly frustrating team to watch this season. The UTP didn’t even surprise me, nor did the grab in right by Gutierrez. Bizarro world indeed.
One more thanks, for this line:
“….and a good man won’t be looking for work.”
Do you think Ricciardi flew into Cleveland ready to pull the trigger? Does this mean Gibbons is basically walking the tightrope with nary a false step to make for the forseeable future?
hello,
JC.
MW: Nice Bizarro-World sign-off, I’m really hoping that was on purpose. No, I don’t think Ricciardi went to Cleveland to pull the trigger, though he may well have. He had always been planning to go to Minnesota for that part of the road trip, so I’m guessing that once Sunday was washed, he headed in to Cleveland to watch two games in one day. He wanted to see an unassisted triple play.
- JCWow, was totally expecting Shannon Stewart to ground into a double play in that 10th inning, but then again it was a fastball right down broadway so pretty much anyone else on the team would have gotten a double out of that.
MW: Yes, because Stewart is awful.
- FrankIf the Jays pitching ever declines what do you think or the Jays’ catcher, whether its Zaun or Barajas, intentionally making himself smell bad to distract the hitter? A few days without showering can get a nice little man musk going.
MW: A fine idea.
- AlThe boys really showed some grit out there tonight. They really looked like they wanted that one. Gibby was marshaling the troops beautifully. He kept his shirt tucked in and looked like a professional. A couple more closed-door players only meetings per day and I can really see them going on a big roll. I think the injuries have really inspired the boys.
/Facetiousness
- ShawnMike, I heard Alan tonight say that he thinks MLB ought to enforce a time limit on pitchers. Take too long between pitches and be penalized with a ball. A great idea. It made me wonder, however, when was the last time a rule was changed in baseball? Was it the DH?
thanks,
MW: There is a rule on the book saying a pitcher has 12 second to deliver a pitch with no one on base or a ball is charged. They just don’t enforce it a lot. MLB tweaks little rules all the time, but certainly nothing big. They got rid of the tie game a couple of years ago, though.
- bgWould it be bad if I reminded everyone that the 1989 Jays started off 12-24 before axing Jimmy Williams. That team went on a tear through the summer and took the AL East. Just goes to show that it’s not too late to make the playoffs and by no means is it impossible.
- BrendanLet’s hope they don’t hit rock bottom and then start to dig.
I watched both games tonight (you can do that when you get Indians games on TV) and your summarization is spot on. The triple play and the defensive gems in the ninth inning had me wondering. I know you think this is ludicrous but I keep thinking there will be a discernable turning point somewhere and this club just takes off. I know people will think that nearly impossible without Vernon, but maybe the other players will play harder in his absence, you know, reach back for that something extra and pick up the slack. I know there were people wondering why Adam Lind was demoted so quickly, but with Vernon out there is no way they have time for Adam to right his ship.
Oh by the way, next time someone accuses you of knowing everything, simply reply” I don’t know everything, but I do know more than anybody else, so feel free to ask any question you like”. I’ve used that line to shut people up for years. You have my permission to use it.
MW: I wouldn’t say something like that, not only is it not true, but it comes off as awfully arrogant.
- Jim BranscomeThe guy that called into your show and asked about the origins of “Snake Face” hung up thinking that Downs actually does in fact have a tattoo of a snake on his face. Why must you toy with people Mike?
MW: Who, me?
- AndyJust to post it somewhere so we’ll have a benchmark when (not if) it turns around:
here’s our current line w?RISP
.209 .297 .284 .581
All of those are last in the AL, the slugging is last by a staggering .084 below the next lowest!!!!!
And the OPS is a fantastically freakishly insanely unrealistic .134 below the next lowest OBP on the list. By comparison, there is a spread of .136 between #1 Oakland and #13 Kansas City in that category.
Furthermore, since the Baltimore game that we won 11-3, the Jays (10-17 in that span) are 32 for their last 197 w/RISP (by my count….I seem to get numbers different from published reports for some reason) - that’s a .162 BA
Before that game, they were only 31/135 which works out to .230 and in all games except that Baltimore game, they are hitting .190 w?RISP
That would be .040 below the next lowest if you don’t count that one game.
For comparison, the lowest OPS in the last seven years was the .647 posted by the 2003 Tigers who lost 119 games. That team also posted a .228 BA that year, the lowest in the last seven.
Read that again - a 119 loss team had a 20 point higher BA with runners in scoring position than our current team does, and .066 higher than what we have done over the last 27 games.
I challenge anyone to argue this is the true talent level of these players.
MW: You’ll get that argument. Or you might get “just because it wasn’t doesn’t mean it now isn’t.”
- WillRainMike,
What is Wilkerson thinking tagging to 2nd base in the 10th? With all the crazy things that happened in this game, I don’t see how tagging in that situation makes any sense whatsoever. If he gets thrown out, Stairs may not have scored (it would have been close).
Thoughts?
MW: The ball was deep enough that he knew he wouldn’t be thrown out (the only reason you would ever advance in that situation), and it worked because he wound up scoring on Hill’s single that followed. That was a good, heads-up play.
- CavanMike:
Just because you’re such a stickler for the stats, I wanted to correct you. As we speak the Jays are 1.5 games behind the Yankees, 2 games behind the Indians, and 1 game ahead of the Tigers. You went 0-3 there … like a Blue Jay hitting with a runner in scoring position.
MW: Well what do you know? You’re right. I have to change my source for standings.
- Peter B.Man, oh man, what a disaster thus far. I went to the Cleveland series and travelling 5 hours to see what I saw just sickened me. one run in 18 innings and a rainout that they could have played. Now im stuck with access to any remaining Cleveland game for the rest of the season! Great, just what I’ve always wanted. Then to sit and watch game one of the double header and yes no runs yet again. I started to watch game two and was actually trying to impress my 11 year old by telling him the amount of scoreless innings the Jays offence had been able to put up. I cant help but think that this team has crashed and burned. But something keeps telling me to put that aside and keep watching. I dont know if its the fan in me or what, but I refuse to give up on this team, even though they keep bringing in these rejects that could once hit a ball hard. Help Mike, give me some positive feedback to keep this season alive. I dont know how many more scoreless innings I can take without falling asleep in a drunken stupor!
MW: Did you not stick around for the 10th?
- DaveBut Mike every week you keep saying the same thing and every week it is one more week off the schedule. Yes it is early but lots of teams are in front of the Jays so when you say they are only one game back of the Yankees does that mean that fourth place is the goal instead of last?
In summary, third place .500 team is what the Jays are.
MW: Are they? I would say last place, under .500 team is what the Jays are.
- Stan BenjaminPLAYOFFS!
MW: That is about which that I am talking.
- StoetenSurely you don’t think 1 game makes or breaks a manager? I think you’re wrong in your assesment that Gibbons’ job was essentially on the line tonight. If Riccardi feels Gibbons should or shouldn’t be the manager, 1 win shouldn’t change it.
MW: You are correct, I’m just telling you what I think was going to happen. If the Jays get shut out in Game 2, then that’s a four-game sweep to start a road trip, scoring only one run in the bargain. I think that would have been the point of no return.
- terryHey Mike, while I’m glad to see that a lot of the other preseason contenders are off to a bad start, is there any part of you at all that think the A’s or Rays can contend? I know you seem to be down on those teams but could you explain your thoughts on why they won’t contend?
I know you’re a busy guy so a sentence or two for each team works fine if you can manage it. Thanks!
MW: They’re not good enough.
- Matt SIf your pitchers giving up 3 runs in 7 plus innings is considered a “ho hum” outing, than all perspective is lost…and i blame the hitters for this . They are the people who have made it seem that scoring 3 runs in a game is like scoring three goals in the recent golden era of trap hockey. (hint its not).
Currently, there are only two jays hitters that i have any reasonable confidence in making something good happen..stairs and rolen. everyone else has forgotten how to hit or has never learned. Hitting better isnt about emotion, pride, effort, but i DO feel that having an expectation of positive outcome does allow one to perform better. baseball is the ultimate sport because of its humbling nature. i mean why hasn’t anyone ever had a hot streak last an entire year? same person, same skill, same athletecism..same hand eye coodination..right? thankfully it doesnt work out that way…and that mystery is what keeps us coming back, day after day, month after month, and year after year….this hitting thing turns around right now BOOK IT.
- sammyi have no idea why but optimism has hit me I have a feeling that the Jays will score at least five runs in two of these games…but baseball karma being what it is will the Twins score 10? Love the show and blog Slowey Bonser and Perkins? let’s get some wins.
Sirotka, Dayley and Erik Hansen for Vaughan, Garces and Carlos Quitallna or is it too early ( I think we have Sirotka til ‘11)
MW: I’m assuming you meant Mo Vaughn (not Ricky Vaughan) and Carlos Quintana. I’d make that trade.
- owenMike,
In regards to all this talk of how bad can it get for the Jays offensively, I would just like to point something out. Here are Pecota projections for some of the Jays players and their actual OPS prior to Monday’s game.
Overbay: 760, Pecota Proj: 761
Wells: 787, Pecota: 789
Hill: 708, Pecota: 733
Zaun: 734, Pecota: 745
Rios: 775, Pecota: 810
Eckstein: 637, Pecota: 680
With the exception of Eckstein, nobody listed here is really that far off their expected output. Now, not that I think Pecota is infallible, it sure doesn’t seem like this utter lack of hitting should come as that much of a surprise.
However, with as bad as things are going, why is it that Gibbons insists on finding Scutaro and Ingett extra AB’s? With the offense struggling as much as it is, wouldn’t it be prudent to get your best hitters out there as much as possible?
MW: I have no problem with using Scutaro over Wilkerson against a lefty right now, especially one who has been swallowing lefties whole like Cliff Lee (.140 obp against so far). It’s not the expected PECOTA-ness that’s failing the Jays. They’re 5th in the league in obp. It’s the RISP action that’s failing so miserably, and I’m not sure PECOTA has a rating for that - they’d be underperforming it spectacularly.
- Jays fan in NVHi Mike, lovin’ the blog it’s an excellent way of killing an hour or so of my time in work so keep it up!
I’m a huge Jays fan and part of me hates myself for what I’m about to suggest but I think it’s time to consider trading Halladay for some offensive help. I never thought I’d say that but please hear me out there is method to my madness. Firstly I think he is at the peak of his trade value and by giving up a guy that starts every 5th game for us we could in theory acquire some serious everyday help for this abysmal offense. Secondly there is enough pitching depth in the organisation to still have one of the most talented pitching staff in baseball especially considering guys like Accardo, League, and Janessen are to return to the fold. And finally I think it’s the right thing to do morally. Halladay is a guy who, palying with a little more run support over the past few years, could and should be now a multiple Cy Young winnner and a shoe in for a place in Cooperstown in years to come. Playing with this team is not necessarily killing his chances but definately jeopardising them and I think eventually he’s going to realise that and as a Halladay and Bluejays fan I think trading him could in the end benefit both parties.
I’d be interested to hear your reaction.
Keep up the good work we all appreciate the time and commitment you make for the fans.
MW: Well, some of you do. Some of you hate me, but still listen. Anyway, I don’t think trading Halladay is the right move. You couldn’t get enough offensive help back in order to sustain the dropoff from Halladay to Purcey, I don’t think. And I don’t care about doing what’s “right by Halladay”. He chose to sign here, to commit to this organization, and he can leave after another 2 1/2 seasons if he wants.
- BarryMike,
Did you catch Shannon Stewart’s comments in Griffin’s article over the weekend? I know you don’t really buy into team chemistry but wouldn’t it just be better to let him go. He sounded very much like a guy who feels sorry for himself and I think that’s selfish considering his decisions over the off-season put him into this position. Let him go and bring up Lind for good.
MW: He did sound like he’s feeling sorry for himself, but he’s not a guy who would spread that air around the clubhouse.
- JeffWhew - that was close! I thought for sure the Jays were “cursed” again in the ninth with great defence by the Tribe and after that (who’d a thought) triple play in the 5th - I just thought -what else could possibly go wrong.
Now after the good bench moves by Gibby in the tenth - I think the run of bad luck is finally over (and there has been a lot of that) - you coulod just feel and see the huge sigh of relief in the Jays dugout and on the field after the game. I do think this is it - we are going to be ok.
I was beginning to think the Air Canada Center was built too close to the Rogers Center and the “negative vibes” from there were drifitng into Jays territory (maybe they should keep the lid closed).
I couldn’t believe my eyes when Cabrera just “matter of factly” tossed the ball from his unasssisted triple play in the stands as he walked to the dugout - from what I read elswhere he muttered a big “oh no” right at the time he did it - yikes - what a great catch that is for some lucky fan.
Marcum - what else can you say - he looks so cool and collected out there no matter what the situation. I feel for AJ - watching him leaning on the rail of the dugout watching Marcum pitch - made me wonder just what he was thinking - he deserved (again) a much better fate.
Thanks again!
MW: I didn’t see Cabrera say anything, but I couldn’t believe that he threw that ball into the stand.
- BobYou said you would consider trading Roy Halladay for a Da Haren package but not a Johan type package. Why’ s that?
MW: I didn’t think the Twins got enough for Santana.
- andrewMike - and how weird was it that the same umpire who robbed the Jays of an incredible triple play in the 1992 World Series, was in the game last night ? Very interesting that on the broadcast Jerry pointed out said Umpire later admitted he blew the call when Gruber tagged Sanders for the 3rd out. I cannot recall the umpires name but that’s ok because I was at the game and he robbed me of witnessing an official triple play. Jerry also had it right - if not for that blown call, the play would have been a staple clip everyone would recognize.
Who was the player you mentioned from 40 years ago ?
Lastly - a message for Jaystalk callers who suggest we trade any of our starting pitching with 120+ games left in the season….please give your head a shake. Mike I compliment your patience with your callers sometimes.
MW: Thanks. The umpire is Bob Davidson, one of the worst in the business. The player was Ron Hansen.
- Ian CGood morning, Mike, hope all is well. So, holy crap.
First of all, you are rapidly becoming the guru in our house, and our first thought when Cabrera made the triple play was “Wow, what will Wilner say?” But it was really cool to see. I think I mostly enjoyed Peralta’s “tag him, tag him” and Scutaro’s shock.
When Gutierrez caught that Mench ball, I gently removed my glasses and then beat myself in the face a bit with a throw pillow. I then turned to Mr. Kita (names have been changed to protect the innocent) who was researching unassisted triple plays online, and said, “That’s it, go buy a bucket of chicken, Jobu is p*****!”
I agree with you, that had to be rock bottom and hopefully we are on the road back. It’s probably a long road though, so there will be plenty to Chicken Little about, I’m sure. I am still in awe of some of the rudeness that is displayed towards you, both on the blog and on the radio. You show more forebearance than I would if I gave people a forum and they used it to be rude.
And now, my question. Ever since spring training it has seemed that in talk of future catchers, Diaz and Jeroloman are getting a lot of mention, Thigpen not so much. I was quite impressed with him when he was up, a little bit of pop, good arm and two position versatility. Is he currently slumping or injured, or have they decided that he has the makings of a better first baseman, what with all the other prospects behind him? Thanks.
MW: As I mentioned in the spring, Thigpen is probably fourth on their list of the four good, young catchers. He’s been playing some third base in AAA as well as behind the plate, and I think they see him as a super-utility guy in the future. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit in his big-league trial last year, and he’s not hitting AT ALL right now in Syracuse (.179/.203/.241). As for the rudeness, it’s part of the gig.
- kitaHey Mike, what’s so bad about Juan Pierre?
MW: You can’t steal first.
- WillI am surprised by the low number of triple plays. When there’s a full count, the runners at 1st and 2nd take off anyway, all it takes is a liner to the 2nd base or SS and there you have a triple play. Should occur much more frequently.
So the first quarter of ‘08 is in the books. Despite the terrible hitting, Jays are RIGHT THERE. With some bounces going there way, they could have easily been 22-18, if not better. My MVP for the first quarter is none other than Marcum. It’s good to see your 4th starter outpitching the entire rotation. Who is your MVP so far?
MW: I think it’d have to be Marcum, too. Runners at first and second don’t take off with a full count when there’s nobody out, at least not usually.
- BeburgHi Mike,
Let me start by thanking you for the great job you are doing with this blog! Your response rate is really fantastic!
A quick question: Did I perceive a sense of relief in you when you say that a “good man won’t be looking for work.” I’ve been puzzled by your downgrading of the manager’s role in winning games. I agree with the argument that success/failure depends, to a greater extent, on the pool of talent available to the manager at a given time. You cannot expect great things from a team full of mediocre players. However, I think managers play an intrinsic role in managing that pool of talent to obtain desired outcomes. I don’t see this black and white, but perhaps 75% talent and 25% management. It’s just like any organization, where you can have the best pool of talent, but if you don’t know how to manage it you don’t achieve the desired outcome. There’s something about being a leader and a manager that makes the talent achieve their full potential.
Having said that, I must admit that I have seen Gibby mature into a better manager this season. There’s been a couple of questionable moves (or lack thereof), but overall his has demonstrated tremendous improvement over past seasons. I agree with you that it would be unfair and not the right thing to do to fire Gibbons. What has happened has not been entirely his fault. I also agree with you that while managers should bring a motivational component into the game, these are PROFESSIONAL players. They’re main motivation should be the big bucks they get biweekly.
However, just following your logic in dismissing the role of the manager, I ask a couple of questions:
1) If the manager does not make a difference, then why not change the manager every time the team hits “rock bottom.” This is also following your logic in defending the Okha,Zambrano signing… Changing the manager would be a cheap move with a potentially high reward? Obviously, the manager role matters, otherweise the turnover rate would be excessively high. This is tantamount to getting a haircut: it does not make a difference, then why not change the manager?
2) Bloggers/callers have asked you to give reasons why Gibbons should not be fired. You have given reason why we should keep him (i.e. he’s a “good man”, “its’ the lack of hitting fault”). I pose a different question: Do you think Gibbons would find another managerial job in a team different from Toronto? Joe Torre, Piniella, Baker, Girardi, did… Who outside the Blue Jays organization be interested in pikcing up the Gibbons?
MW: I have ZERO idea who outside the Jays organization would be interested in picking up Gibbons if he were fired. Then again, I would never have thought that Boston would have hired Terry Francona after the Phillies got rid of him. As for the rapid turnover if a manager doesn’t mean anything, I would think that that would be the kind of behaviour that would get a General Manager fired, which not GM wants to have happen.
- Axel1.This is not a slump. This is black magic. Chicken’s must be sacrificed. Toads must be boiled and eaten. The golden locks of virtuous virgins must be sheared and set on fire.
2. If I’m J.P. I don’t only sign Barry Bonds, I hire Jose Canseco as the Jays new trainer.
3. After the UTP, all I could do is laugh and I couldn’t stop until the 10th.
- peteCleveland — where line drives go to die! Really, folks, it’s not that the Jays aren’t hitting with RISP (at least a bit), it’s just that their hits aren’t landing on the green stuff! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse stretch of (combined) bad luck and bad swings.
But, just to put it in perspective, here’s an edited quote from another forum:
“(They) have an incredibly inconsistent offense, and yes it is getting old. The starting pitching is pitching better than any rotation in the league. How is it that a team can have a starter go 9 shut-out innings and lose? Moving people to different spots in the order is not helping and something needs to be done. This lineup’s potential seems to get worse by the game. As fans, we remember when each of these guys have had a hot streak over the last couple of seasons and hope it comes back, but almost everyone is hitting in the low .200’s. I hope they somehow pull together because someone has to help this awesome starting pitching. This is pitching that can go through the playoffs, but you need some type of run support to win games.”
The team the above quote is referencing? The INDIANS!!!
Sound familiar?
On the Triple Play, Mike, a technical question — given that Scutaro had already touched second, and therefore would have been required to retouch before retreating to first, was he “out” as soon as Cabrera touched the bag at second? In other words, was the tag on him “superfluous”?
(I realize the point is moot, but I’m really curious as to what “might have happened” if, for instance, Cabrera had simply touched the bag and run off to the dugout).
MW: Nope, either Scutaro or the first base bag still have to be tagged. Good quote about the Indians!
- NormMike;
When someone is traded for “cash considerations” (Mench), what kind of cash are we looking at?
MW: They tend not to tell us. Not much, I’m thinking.
- Andrew NI think I know what’s been wrong with the Blue Jays this season- they are a team from the “bizarro world”. Remember on Seinfeld when the main characters each had an opposite character? Jerry read only comics, bizarro world Jerry read novels. In baseball, we are told that when an unlikely team wins a pennant or the World Series, a lot of players had career years. So is it not possible for a team to collectively have “un-career” years? What should be down is up, and what should be up is down. Career .300 hitters who drive in runs struggle in the mid-.200’s. Pitchers that we expect might have a sophmore jinx are all-stars (Go Marcum, go). And so on. This would fully explain the performance Blue Jays (til the 10th inning last night in game 2). Hopefully the bizarro world Jays are done and gone, but if not, as the person uncovering this great mystery, and bizarro world baseball afficionado I will say that the only way to break the cycle is reverse things. The 9th hitter bats first, Rios bats 9th and so on. If the starters go south, start Downs. Yep, bizarro world. Explains a lot of what has been going on, don’t you think?
Paul Ryan
MW: Ummmm, isn’t that what I said in the post? But please tell me you don’t think the “Bizarro World” thing is out of Seinfeld.
- Paul RyanMike,
I don’t know what was more shocking , the jays scoring or that it took them soo long to score. Marcum pitching as well as he did is a testament to his mental strengthen. To me it was an amazing feat to brush off an O that provides you with zero margin of error.
I know you really want to see the jays bust out but lets hold off on declaring the offense cured until, I don’t know, they score in 3 or 4 straight games.
You said that the 5th was teh Jays season in a nutshell. I think a caller you had last night summed things up for me when he said “even in my fantasy world, I can’t figure out how to improve the Jays O”.
Another thing creeped into my mind, you listed the top 5 worse moves of Gord Ash, I am temped to ask for the top 5 J.P moves. But mostly I am wondering why J.P. hasn’t been able to dig up a Jack Crust type. Maybe Mench is that type.
MW: Heh heh - Jack Crust.
- JWMike I agree with you that Gibbons hasn’t done enough to loose his job but really what percentage of coachs in professional sports that get fired actually deserve it????? Maybe 5% but I doubt its that high.
Mike when you were asked if the jays had the wrong mix of hitters you responded.
“Nope, it doesn’t seem like the wrong mix to me, not with this pitching staff. I mean, it does now, since no one has been hitting for a month, but I thought they were good enough when the season started and not much has changed”
Problem is you were the only one who thought this team was good enough offensively when the season started. I mean J.P. was saying it but I doubt he believed everyone else knew this team didn’t have the offense. Healthy or not Healthy they simply don’t have the offence.
MW: Check the pre-season predictions. I was FAR from the only one who thought the Jays were good enough at the beginning of the season.
- Dan M.MW “Overbay squares up a tough lefty in Cliff Lee and hits a rope back up the middle”
I believe you mean to say “Overbay got sawed off and hit a broken bat looper up the middle”
MW: The bat broke, it’s true. After hearing the highlight again that’s pretty apparent. But it wasn’t a looper, it was a line drive. Cabrera caught it about three inches off the ground in full divey mode.
- Dan M.I read that the Jays will likely call up a spot starter for Friday’s game in Philly due to the doublehader, with Burnett scheduled to pitch Saturday and Marcum on Sunday. Marcum clearly has pitched way superior than Burnet. Why wouldn’t Marcum pitch ahead of Burnett? They both pitched on Monday. Are we worried about Burnet’s ego?
MW: Who cares who pitches when? It’s not about being ahead of one guy or the other. All I care about is the Marcum pitches in an NL park so he can swing the bat.
- SteveMike,
I too got the impression that not only a game in the standings, but John Gibbons’ job was on the line in the double header’s second game.
This team’s offense may be completely impotent, but it’s nice to see they are still playing with fire/passion - as evidenced by the enthusiasm everyone showed getting up to congratulate Zaun on his sac bunt and the audible cheers you could hear on the TV broadcast when the Jays finally scored.
It’s an incredibly frustrating time to be a Jays fans, but these guys want to win as much as we all want them to win, so we just have to ride it out, keep supporting and hoping for the best.
I know you’ve said multiple times that you don’t consider TB, Oakland, etc. to be in the long-term playoff race, but at what point do you start to think that these teams may actually be for real? I mean, it’s not like just becuase they are the Rays, TB is destined to go on a 10-game losing streak and fall out of contention and teams like Oakland are notorious for overachieving and competing with down the stretch with the league’s payroll monsters.
It’s nice to look through rose colored glasses and say the Jays are still right in the thick of the teams they need to contend, but until the teams ahead of them show any signs of stuttering, I don’t think there’s any reason to think they can’t have a surprise season the same as the Jays have been having (albeit a bad surprise, in TO’s case).
MW: I’ll rethink it if the Rays and A’s are still in the race in August.
- ColeWhat’s wrong with Hill and Rios? Are they trying to impress after they signed those big contracts?
MW: Could be, things like that have happened.
- JeremyYou may be right that JP and Gibbons should not lose their jobs, because it is the hitters that are not hitting, not the GM not GM’ing and the Manager, not managing. However, what is becoming painfully obvious, is that the people who pay their money to watch this team, need to come to the ballpark and with a different viewpoint, and the only way for that to happen is to change the 2 top dogs in the organization.
I realize that this statement won’t be popular with either the players or you, however, as you have stated time after time on your radio show and on your blog, the players are not hitting up to their career averages in just about every category. It would not be possible to go out and trade everyone who is not hitting up to their career averages. Thank you for your patience and commitment to the fans of this team.
MW: If the GM and manager were fired every time the fans wanted the GM and manager fired, the longest tenure a guy would have would probably be about two weeks.
- RobMike,
Sure it may not be over YET but The Jays have to do things like they have never done before and that is go on a long winning streak at least 8 games. When you look at this line up it doesn’t look good.
MW: Hey, a comment from you after a win! Well done. They don’t have to win eight games in a row.
- brunoUntil they start hitting, how close they are in the wildcard won’t matter.
Shaun.Freaking.Marcum does it again, just goes out and gets the job done. Best #4 starter in the bigs.
Going to be tough to turn things around in Minnesota. Maybe we will get to face some RHP that we can actually hit. It would be nice for this anemic offence to pick it up. This can’t last forever, can it Mike, CAN IT???
MW: Nope, it can’t.
- Aaron KerMinor league report:
AA — Snyder — finally showing some signs of life — last four games 6 for 17, incl. 2 HR and 8 RBI — also picked up 3 BB and only 4 K’s.
Of course, his overall average in AA is only .192, but at least there is some reason for optomism.
AAA — On the down side, Adam Lind since his latest demotion is hitting only 4 for 19 (.211). He has one double, three singles, 2 BB, and 3 K’s. Seems like the slump he started with the Jays is continuing.
MW: Don’t know why you do this, but cool.
- NormHey MW,
I’ve got a quick question about the regression to the mean (RTM) theory you’ve employed to describe the Jays’ offense. Isn’t RTM only applicable to tests exposed to random error, and not systematic error?
MW: I don’t know, I’m not a statistician. But wouldn’t you call what the Jays have been going through random error?
- BrandonShaun Marcum was spectactular and dominant. Jays faced a tough Cliff Lee. Huge win, maybe this is the start of something postive. Nice line last night, if the Jays lost, John Gibbons would not be on the bus, so true. Thanks, Mike
- tom stewartMike,
Can you please explain in detail the sequence of the unassisted triple play last night once Overbay hit the ball to Cabrera. I didn’t watch the game and I’m still not 100% sure of the 3 outs that he made on the play.
Thanks for your help!!
MW: Runners at first and second, both of whom were running with the pitch. Overbay lines to second, ball is caught for the first out. Cabrera steps on second to double up Mench, then tags Scutaro, who had been on first, for the third out.
- BernardThe Jays are a dead ball-era team right now with superb pitching. Like I said previously, they should play every inning for one run. Some games, that is all we need.
- Jim BStrangely, after the 5th inning and 9th inning episodes happened last night (the ones you described, Mike), for me it was suddenly not so stressful. Why? I suppose because the rarity of these events made it crystal clear that the Jays are simply snake-bitten right now (or at least were at those moments). And you can’t do anything about those things. No managerial strategy, no GM-moves, no trades, no batting coach —none of that would stop that sort of craziness from happening. And to emphasize your own point, it just can’t continue to happen, because as much as it seems, the Bizarro World doesn’t really exist –at least not for extended lengths of time. (That’s why that comic appears in only one boxed frame, in one moment of time in a daily newspaper –but I digress).
So… maybe it’ll all even out in the long run. It’s got to!!
- StanActually I think you could have a full debate about the rock bottom point. You could get five or six experts together, and they could all pick a moment from the season and argue why it was the low point. It’s just too bad that thus far this is what we are reduced to talking about this season, because this team should not be this bad. Personally, I’d probably argue for the time that Alex Rios hit the leadoff triple and then the Rays struck out the side last Thursday, but a strong argument can be made for many other times as well, including the ones that you mention here…
MW: It couldn’t be last Thursday, because it got worse from there.
- Mike MHey Mike,
What’s up with all this Jason Bay talk? Are the Pirates really shopping him? I’d imagine they would be looking for one of Marcum, McGowan or Purcey in return. Trading the young pitching prospects is a road the Jays shouldn’t go down at this point. It would be great to have another Canadian on the Jays but not at that price.
MW: Maybe Purcey. The Bay talk is because he wants out of Pittsburgh.
- BrianMike, can you explain to me why the hitting coach is still here 6 weeks into a season where the offense has been a complete disaster? I understand J.P’s reluctance to fire John Gibbons, because it isn’t his fault that the players can’t hit worth a lick. However, there needs to be a shakeup somewhere, and the player moves that J.P. has made have clearly not been the answer. Someone needs to be made a scapegoat, and since J.P. can’t fire the players and doesn’t want to fire John Gibbons, it is clear to me that the guy who needs to pay the ultimate price is the man whose responsibility it is to ignite the offense — the hitting coach. Thoughts?
MW: You can’t go through hitting coaches like Shawn Kemp goes through baby mommas.
- JamesHey Mike - What’s with the mohawk haircuts? I noticed that Alex Rios had it at the beginning of the season, and that AJ Burnett was sporting one yesterday.
Is Mike Wilner going to follow suit soon and pay a visit to the barbershop?
Aneez
MW: No.
- AneezI listened to the Jaystalk last night - it was a weird one. Why were you in such a good mood yesterday? What have you done with the real Mike Wilner, that delightfully irascible curmudgeon?
MW: I think it was a combination of the callers being reasonable and rational, and me being a little punchy after six hours.
- WojtekI always knew the team would have to hit rock bottom before they bounced back. I thought the 12-0 loss was it. Must have been the triple play though, summing up all of our struggles in one 30 second play, which was a gift to see even if it was on the Jays. What’s up with Rios though is he trying to challenge Ryan Howard in the strikeout department or is he just trying to force it now that he is “the guy” ?
MW: I think the triple play turned things from depressing to laughable and in the 9th inning it went from laughable to hilarious, which might have taken some of the pressure off - not that the pressure being on fully explains just how bad things were going (and may still be). Rios is going through it pretty hard right now, it’s true.
- NickJays’ 50+ league-leading DPs were crowned last night with a rare triple. Then somebody got an Einsteinian brain wave, and invented THE BUNT. Voila! Three runs and a WIN. Now, if this amazing tactic had been tried a few times when those DP situations arose, who knows? They might have scored a few more runs and wins.
MW: Right - because they’ve been hitting so well with RISP. After (if) the bunt moves the guy over, why wouldn’t they get the hit they’d need to score him? From now on, every time the Jays are in a situation where a double play could possibly be hit into, they should bunt. That’d get you that 58-72 that guy mentioned - maybe.
- JRps: we suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.
MW: I don’t know about you, but I certainly don’t think I do.
- pete“It’s no secret that the world is in darkness tonight…” - U2
I, for one, don’t beleive that the Jays have gotten out of their hitting funk. Especially, their Hitting with runners in scoring position. However, even with the loss of Wells, on paper this team is better than the one that plays!
Seriously, if firing the coaches and/or managers is not the answer, then WHAT-IN-GEORGE-BELL’S-NAME is?!? Is it a mental challenge? Do they need Dr. Phil to make an appearance?
On a lighter note, what is your fav baseball book?
KK
MW: Who has time to read?
- karim kanjiHey Mike, 2 things…
1. what are the chances Bonds becomes our hitting coach?
2. what’s up with all the broken bats this season? is it just me or are bats shattering almost every second out?
MW: Zero, and it’s just you. Jays pitchers break a lot of bats, though, because they’re really good.
- Randywhen will J.P finally learn you can’t win in the east with matt stairs and a triple A player Kevin mench as your DH. Does he not have a clue how much Berry Bonds would help this team, I think J.P is a joke and should get fired he doesnt know how to run a team or a farm system. Over the 7 years he’s been here we’ve drafted crap and he over pays and gets nothing back. And Mike can you expain why he loves wilkerson so much?thanks
MW: Wilkerson used to be really, really good and worthy of such love. There’s a chance, however slim, that he gets back to that, and it’s worth the nothing that the Jays have invested to see if it happens in the next month. Stairs was arguably the best hitter the Jays had last year, and Mench is a proven major-league lefty-masher.
- GabeHey Mike,
As much as I hope the Jays turn their play around (as my baseball entertainment depends on it), it is hard to be optimistic when the trend of GIDP and stranding runners continues. I hate too say it, but never before have I found it more interesting to watch the Jays on defense rather then offense. It really is hard sitting down and watching a team put out a lineup that features Stew, Scoot, Wilkerson and Barajas all at one time. But really, what else can you do. So I shall sit here and pray that Snider figures things out in AA and wont be a letdown like Rios and Hill.
MW: Yeah, those three bad weeks for Rios and Hill have really killed their careers.
- Ryan - BellevegasMike
I don’t think that a team like the jays can just up and get out of this slump. It is much easier to get into a slump than to get
out of one. Just ask the Ottawa Senators who never recovered from there historical slump.
There is only few teams especially in a tough division in proffessional sports that bounce back to go where they ultimately want to go.
Jays are not the type of team that can flip the switch, Especially in their division.
The problems with this team is not as simplistic as you describe, It is not just a “They need to hit the ball” There are things they have done in their careers that have contributed to their ability to hit the ball and they need to get back to that, Or ownership must completely renovate the front office and many of the personell on the field, which I feel is a better option. Question is, what hitting do we have in our farm that is ready to make an impact?
This brings me to a question. The Marlins, Clevland, Minnesota,Baltimore and Tampa Bay hurt for years and have a wealth of hitting and pitching to show for those struggling years, Other than Mcowan,Doc,RIOS,WELLS, Which are not assets brought in by J.P
What good young prospects did J.P groom that gives fans an indication that this will be as good as the teams above in the future. I belive Baltimore and Tampa Bay have shown with their good young core that they want to take over this division moving foward. Jays on the other hand with their lack of hitting prospects have shown otherwise.
, Jays and management have work to do.
MW: The pitching, of course, has nothing to do with anything. When a team sucks for years, such as the Marlins, Baltimore and Tampa Bay have, they’re going to get some very good players in the draft, and the Rays, for one, have done an exceptional job of drafting early (for the most part). The Marlins method of winning, tearing apart and winning again five years later looks pretty good, but how many people would be clamoring for J.P.’s head now if he had come in and said “this team is going to SUCK for four years, then we might win”?
- JohnMike it must be very difficult performing a job that requires you to criticize a product that is under the Rogers umbrella. I have been annoyed at your inability to criticize JP and Gibbons for their role in this disaster. Do you think you would be free to really speak your mind under different circumstances of employment? The reason I ask you is because you seem to be the only person who isn’t upset at the way the team has been managed from top to bottom. We all know which way the wind is blowing. Gibbons and JP will both most likely not be back next year and I say good riddance. Do you not see an upside or advantage to getting some new blood in the front office?
MW: I don’t think what’s gone on has been John Gibbons’ fault and that has nothing to do with who signs my paychecks. If these hitters are legitimately this bad (which I don’t believe and NOTHING about their careers would indicate), then Ricciardi seriously overestimated them and deserves to lose his job. It’s very easy to point fingers when things aren’t going well, it’s harder to look at the big picture, which is why most don’t.
- mikeJaysTalk with Mike Wilner: Where the Twins are leading the NL Central!
So let’s take a look at a couple of recent statements by ye Mike Wilner, the King of Rationality and Logic. The guy that needs proof to back up everything, and proceeds to try to embarass anyone who doesn’t have proof. The guy who believes it’s ok to belittle anyone who makes an illogical statement. After all, I just want to make sure that “irrational opinions get the respect they deserve”.
“And yet, if they’re a 90-win team, then you shouldn’t necessarily expect them to have a 17-21 either, so it should even out.”
“There’s no question that the Jays need more than a little luck, but given how much bad luck they’ve had over almost the whole first quarter of the season, I’m thinking it’ll even out.”
Yeah, and while we’re waiting for it to even out how bout we head down to Vegas and play some roulette. If it lands on red the first 1700 times in a row, we’ll bet black for the next 1700 rolls, since you know, it has to “even out”.
Now, Mike certainly can and probably will argue that he’s simply arguing for the “regression to the mean”. But does it really sound like that, or does it sound like a guy that’s trying to argue that the Jays should be receiving a few lucky breaks based on what’s happened in the past? Look at the second one closely: “given how etc…”. “Given”:acknowledgedas a supposition;
MW: Wow. I said NL instead of AL on the radio at the end of a doubelheader. I’ll submit my resignation in the morning. If you don’t think the Blue Jays have been extraordinarily unlucky over the course of their first 40 games, that’s your prerogative. I think, though, that that has just as much to do with this as anything else.
- Dan WAll I can say about last night’s game was that it was a pleasure to watch Marcum pitch a gem….again.
- DerekMike,
I’m gonna take a page from the book of Wilner and say one game (and really, one inning) is way to small a sample size to even think that this could be over.
We can hope though.
MW: Yes, it is, but you never know.
- KevinHi Mike,
- marioWe needed that win like no other so far this year.For anybody who doesn’t believe that sometimes there is nothing you can do but wait it out I give yesterday.The hiitters did all they could do to score a run in the 9th and came up empty.In the 10th what could easily have been a doubleplay ball goes off the pitcher and the break we couldn’t buy get’s handed to us.Hopefully all the negatvity gets left in Cleveland and we can take advantage of some average starting pitching in Minnesota.If we don’t then unfortunately somebody is going to be out of work.Hoping that doesn’t happen,mario
GO JAYS!!!
How many times have you posed the question “could it be over?” I will believe it when I see it. You said the team was taking baby steps vs. the White Sox last week and look how that turned out. The team was shutout for 2 cg against opposing pitchers. They were bound to get at least one run somewhere. I still think they will still struggle offensively and particularly with RISP. Some changes to the team and management need to be made. Even if they turn things around and play reasonably well they will still be missing that one impact bat.
MW: Yes, they will, but they don’t need it if everyone hits and pitches like they’re capable. I don’t know how many times I’ve thought it could be over, but that’s because teams don’t sustain runs of craptacularity like this.
- aviMike, knowing who the Jays had penciled in for the starting 9 in their opening day line-up, would you consider the stats below to be a conservative estimate what we “would/should” expect at year’s end at those slots from the “regulars”? I use these stats because they’re the ones that casual fans focus on in the morning paper.
Which ones are shall we say “on pace”, which ones could we expect to be exceeded and which ones are below pace? Just curious on your take if you have time to comment.
POSIT AVG HR RBI
C 0.260 10 65
1B 0.300 18 80
2B 0.290 15 75
3B 0.300 25 95
SS 0.285 3 55
LF 0.295 12 65
CF 0.315 30 110
RF 0.295 25 100
DH 0.290 20 95
MW: Those stats aren’t the most important ones, so I don’t want to get focused on that. They all seem to be pretty fair, and I doubt any one is on pace to do it.
- JJJays starters this year so far, ranked on how they’ve pitched:
1. Marcum
2. Doc
3. McGowan
4. Litsch
5. Burnett
Agree?
MW: I might flip Litsch and Burnett, but maybe not.
- DerekI understand your point about this season not being over for the Jays. I however have decided that I have seen this show too often and will tune out until the time comes that the Jays do more than sign two washedout outfielders.
MW: OK. See you after the next three-game win streak!
- CoreyMike,
You optimism has inspired me to look again at how this team has performed.
Wins-Losses 18-22 (.450 winning percentage)
Have they been unlucky?
total runs scored 148
total runs allowed 153
pythagorean W-L 19-21(.475 winning percentage)
So first off we can say the Jays should probably have an extra win. That’s not very much to get excited about. Let’s see if we can do better:
expected Runs Created 163 (AB*OBP*SLG)
runs created pythagorean W-L 21-19 (.515 winning percentage)
Using Bill James’ Runs Created formula, the Jays are about 15 runs short of where we’d expect given their OBP and SLG. That makes up for another two wins, puts the Jays about even with the Rays in W-L. Why are the Jays underperforming in runs? I think we know what the culprit is:
runs scored with RISP 114
The AL average with RISP is .342 runs per PA. That’s well, well above the Jays’ current performance of a .268 runs per PA with RISP. If the Jays became “average” with RISP (which would actually mean being above average by hitting a healthy .271/.360/.407), we can guestimate they would have scored 146 runs. Let’s add these 32 runs to their actual total of runs scored and call this new total their “clutch runs scored”:
clutch runs scored 180
clutch pythagorean W-L 23-17 (.580 winning percentage)
So, can we conclude with a little good luck Jays could perform as a .580 club for the rest of the season?
How would that need to happen? Needless to say, the pitching and defense would have to remain boss.
Considering the club right now is hitting .254/.331/.364, here’s the optimistic (but reasonable) scenario: Rios, Overbay, Hill and Eckstein all add .100 points of OPS, Wells has one of his 50 points of OPS over his career average seasons (rather than one of his 50 points under seasons) when he gets back (and his replacements until then don’t suck), Rolen keeps hitting at or slightly above his career average (dragged down by injury plagued seasons of late), Mench and Stairs form an above average DH platoon, Zaun keeps trucking, and someone, ANYONE manages not to embarrass themselves in LF. But even if they reverse their unlucky ways and trade in their A-Rod in the playoff tendencies to being a team of Jeters and Ortizes, that still only gets you to about 87-88 wins for the season given their start. And while it’s all possible, it’s still a lot of if’s.
The Jays are still “in this”, but people in Cleveland, Detroit, New York could make equally plausible scenario for how their clubs can turn it around, and fans in TB, Oakland, and Chicago could make arguments as to why their clubs are just as likely to continue their winning ways. Saying the Jays only need to worry about those first three power houses is misrepresenting the situation.
MW: Good research. But I’m saying the Jays will, at some point, perform at an above-average level with RISP that will eventually get them back close to average, so throw in a couple of extra wins there. Yes, all those other teams can make cases for such improvements or continuations, but I believe it’s the Tigers, Indians and Yankees who will be around at the end, not the A’s, Rays, White Sox and Twins.
- MichaelYou seem to have left out one of the most important details - both Stewart and Hill swung at first pitches! They were actually aggressive at the plate!! They did not wait and allow it to get to a pitchers count!!! I know you talked about this during the rain delay/rain out show but even if the philosophy wasn’t to wait until late in the count it sure seams that it was the prevailing practice. Maybe it truly is over - we can only hope.
MW: Hit your pitch, whether it’s the first one or the fifth.
- MikeHow did Scott Downs come to be known as ‘Snakeface’?
MW: Asked and answered, many times.
- Benno you didnt mention bizarro world in your post, and yes I was referring to the episode of Seinfeld that brought the concept to mainstream.
MW: Sorry, you’re right, I mentioned “bizarro Blue-Jay-land”. I think Superman brought Bizarro into the mainstream, at least that’s where Seinfeld got it from.
- Paul Ryan…but they haven’t even been through one yet. Who knows, maybe the hitters would respond to someone with different insight and fresh ideas.
MW: Huh?
- JamesThis is an interesting notion that you put forth: sports fans saying we/us in referring to the plight of the team they support. It is certainly the terms that I use. I think it’s because, as fans, the teams that we support are like our elected representatives. They are a part of our personal identity. They represent the city that we live in (and maybe even, in our case, the country.) But even if we don’t live in the city that we support, we choose our allegiances early in life and stand by them. (I’m, gulp, a Detroit Lions fan also.) In a lot of cases, we’re born into these allegiances. The teams are ours regardless of who actually owns them. The players are ours and they are us until they get traded or leave via free agency. Then we usually hate them for awhile because they slapped us in the face by leaving. (How could you Robbie?)But then finally when they retire, the good ones are ours all over again.
In some countries, people get killed over this stuff.
MW: Yes, they do. How pathetic is that?
- peteFire Gibby. Hire Stilanovich.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=kH4KP6uqtMg
MW: I really don’t think Gibbons deserves to lose his job, but if you can bring in Stilanovich, I don’t see that there’s any other choice.
- MichaelMike,
I think the Jays need a bat, and I don’t think that I’m alone. Tell me what you think (that is one scary question)? Lind, Accardo, Parrish, and Davis Romero for Josh Hamilton. I think that Lind and Accardo have trade value, Parrish could probable move into the Rangers starting rotation for Jennings, and Romero has potential. Lind and Accardo have good futures in front of them but, you have to give something to get something. Also Hamilton would be contractually controlled for the next few years which (if his trade value ever goes back up) would make Wells expendable in the 08, or 09 off season (he doesn’t start making huge money until 2011). Not that I want to get rid of Wells but, Hamilton is going to be a cheaper option (assuming that Rios will play center). Do you think that is enough to give? I know that the Rangers could use pitching, or do you think that Purcey, or Cecil would have to be included?
MW: The Rangers would never do that trade, and probably not even with Purcey or Cecil included.
- SteveWe need a nickname for you. How about Willybuns?
MW: Not so much.
- AndyWhat are the odds of Ted Rogers stepping in and ordering JP to go out and sign Barry Bonds (whether he wants to or not)? I know it is pretty much slim to none, but wouldn’t it be great? Dare to dream!! The Steinbrenners get a lot of criticism for their meddling in New York, but it sure would be nice to have an owner who lives and breaths baseball and will do anything to win.
MW: That’s not the kind of owner we have here. I still think, by the way, that J.P. would sign Bonds if he could, but it’s Godfrey/ownership that’s standing in the way.
- JamesDo you know anything about baseball… Because many dont think you do
MW: And do you include yourself in that many?
- Patrick BatemanMike, you like facts, and so do I. Here is a cheat sheet for you for anytime a caller says it’s Gibbons’ fault.
The AL team avg is 33 HRs, the Jays have 24. The AL SLG% is .395, the Jays’ is .364. The AL GIDP avg is 33, the Jays have 51!! The Jays are actually above average in SB by 3 (27). The OBP is coming back down to earth; the Jays are at .331 compared to the .330 average. The line drive BA is .684 compared to the .730 AL average even though the Jays have 145 LD hits, which is the exact AL avg for LD hits. The Jays bat .186 and have a .556 OPS with 2 out and RISP compared to .242 and .706 for the AL.
And those AL averages INCLUDE the Jays numbers. I was too lazy subtract the Jays numbers and redo the calcs for the 13 other teams. So the numbers are even worse than above.
MW: But the Gibbons-haters would say that the reason they’re doing so poorly is that John Gibbons is a bad manager.
- ShawnGot me there mike, but he almost never strikes out, only around 15% career, that can’t be bad…
MW: Huh? 100 comments a day - I have no idea what you’re talking about.
- WillMike,
With inter-league play upcoming I have a couple questions for you.
In your exposure to the Jays over the years who is the best hitting pitcher you have seen?
Who is the best hittting pitcher on the ‘08 starting rotation?
Thanks
p.s. I know you haven’t been to Citizens Bank Park yet. You should give Teddy a call and do your show on the road for the series. It is a beautiful place to see a ball game.
MW: I’d love to, but it ain’t gonna happen. Best hitting Jays pitcher I’ve ever seen has been Todd Stottlemyre, I think. Best on the squad right now? Shaun Marcum.
- PatHey Norm,
It’s Snider not Snyder.
And his first name is Travis not Duke. =)
- PeeWee“Bunting EVERY TIME a DP is possible” - your words, not mine-and, of course, silly. Bunting judicially - right on, as proven last night. If hitting into DPs with monotonous regularity, almost predictability, is your preference, then you are either cataleptic or masochistic.
MW: By bunting judicially do you mean bunt every time the hitter would otherwise hit into a double play? Because that would be a great strategy. You just have to let me know how you figure out when the right time is.
- JRMan, Downs doesn’t have a snake tattoo. I think you’ve been continuing this joke a little too long.
MW: This from a guy named “Flaming Moe”.
- Flaming Moe“Who cares who pitches when” re Marcum vs Burnett. My point is you want to put the best guy out as much as its possible. I know its only a difference of 1 day, but that may lead to another start for Marcum instead of Burnett later in the schedule.
MW: The likelihood is VERY slim, since theoretically there are only two starts at the end of the season up for grabs after everyone gets their 32. So many things can still change at this point, it’s not like hitting a guy higher or lower in the line-up.
- SteveMike,
Thanks a lot for clearly explaining the triple play sequence from last night. No more confusion on my part.
MW: No problem.
- BernardAny news on Dave Berg?
MW: The Ambassador? What kind of news would you like?
- AlexRegarding Mcgowans new found cleanshaven chopless look, i put it to you. Is it possible against the Sox a biblicalesc loss of strength was yet to manifest itself to the fullest extent thus allowing Dustin to perform to his regular almost superhuman standard, whereas this new aerodynamic look was exposed in the most awful fullest horrific manner in Cleveland. I’m calling on all Jays fans to support Dustin in the only way we can, with our facial hair! Mike as the man we all look up to might i suggest you lead the way in this latest endeavor to lift our Jays to new hights. Might we see an updated photogragh on the website tomorrow?
MW: I will lead this charge, sure, but not by example.
- Phil SmithHi Mike: Watched a couple of the Stilanovich videos…hilarious. Nice to know that there is someone that can be called in…lol
Watched most of the Boston/Minnesota game on the w/e. Verrrry interesting. I can’t see MN dropping out of the pennant race any time soon. The Jays will have their hands full. This team(Twins) is in-your-face and hungry(they stole home one play). Maybe it’ll rub off.
The nap is over!!!
MW: They may be in-your-face and hungry, but they’re not all that good, which is more important. At least, not good enough to win that division, I don’t think.
- JackGood work done Michale I enjoyed reading your post.
Same to you Norm love the Minor League updates.
Mike when you said to go back read pre season predictions and there were lots of people that predicted the jays to be there in the end. I did read alot of pre season predictions and honestly you were the only one I read that had them in the playoffs. I read SI, ESPN, baseball prospectus.
Mike you also said. “If these hitters are legitimately this bad (which I don’t believe and NOTHING about their careers would indicate)”
I mean at the Jays PECOTA projects the jays were projected to score 753 runs (that was with Frank Thomas) thats only 3 more then the O’s are projected to score. There were alot of people (the good baseball writers at least) that knew this offence wasn’t good enough right out of the gate and I’m sure J.P. knew it too he was just hoping for a miracle.
Now the Jays have been alot worse then what PECOTA predicted as they are on pace to score just 599 runs and I know their offence will pick up when the RISP avg. picks up but I just don’t think it will be enough. The most frustrating part is that Barry Bonds is just waiting for his phone to ring so he can start being on of the top ten hitters and baseball again.
ps. Saying the good baseball writers knew the jays offence wasn’t good enough wasn’t intended as a slap in the face to you Mike. Just that my favorite and most trusted writers all said the Jays didn’t have the offence to contend (except for you). I love your work Mike and admire you baseball knowledge. I just find that you constantly over estimate the capability of the Jays offence. I DO NOT think its because you work for Rogers, I think your probally just remeber 2006.
MW: Look at more pre-season predictions, there were people at ESPN and USA Today who predicted the Jays to win either the division or the wild card. They’re five games back of the division now (closer to the w/c) and, as you say, on pace to score less than 600 runs. If they get back to where they should be, why wouldn’t it be enough?
- Dan M.Think the T Bay Rays are for real yet? This could be the Wilner jinx that carries them to an AL title like the 06 Tigers.
MW: No, I don’t. What would have changed in the last couple of days?
- Brett VMike, I was willing to live with a crappy LF (once Thomas was released), in the event Stewart could actually bring his line up to what he’s done the last 2 years, a sparkling .290/.350/.380. But now that Wells is out, it’s absolutely incomprehensible that with the way this team is going Ricciardi can come out in public and say this is the team he is going to be rolling with. It was fairly obvious that all the offense had to fall into place for this team to be successful, hoping that a lineup of 9 solid yet unspectacular hitters could get the job done reasonably well enough to combine with great pitching and make some noise. But their best qualifying hitter just went down, and they were already an atrocious lineup. When your 1B and C need to perform at their max just to be league average, it’s nuts to field 2 mediocre corner outfielders. There’s a reason nobody wanted Stewart this offseason, and there’s a reason Seattle, a team STARVED for hitting, released Brad Wilkerson. To play Wilkerson and Stewart EVERY day in your OF and expect to contend in the AL East is INSANE…Unless of course it’s 5 years ago, in which case I’m even worse off because I can’t even legally drink away the frustration the Jays cause me.
MW: Yeah, the five years ago Wilkerson would be nice, but I’d take last year’s Stewart, no problem.
- AriMike you keep saying Oakland wont be there in the end and your probally right, but in the weak AL West, with Lackey and Escobar hurt. Don’t you think its possible the A’s could sneak into the playoff with 85 wins?
The A’s are my secound favorite team (a distant secound) so im hoping for some good news.
PS. I just have a good feeling about this Twins seriers.
MW: I don’t think 85 wins will be enough to take the West.
- Dan M.On wed with JP, can you please ask him what the plan is for Manuel Rodriguez? I can never get a hold of a line so I though you are my best bet.
MW: Sorry, but I leave the questions to the callers. There’s no way I’ll remember by then, anyway. Try really hard to get through!
- JamesRe. bunting. I hope your response was tongue-in-cheek, and not mere obstinacy or obtuseness. When to bunt depends on many factors: state and stage of game, who would be doing the bunting, who is or are on base, surprise bunt, sac bunt, etc., etc. Effective use of the tactic calls for astute judgment. Beating one’s head against a brick wall, on the other hand, does not.
MW: It does call for astute judgement, indeed, and that judgement should be astute enough to almost never use the strategy. But saying that bunting a runner over is better than hitting into a double play does nothing to move the conversation forward.
- JRSorry Mike one more question? Do you like Bay as a hitter I read a good article on him last year explaining how he didn’t have a good year until he was older then most prospects and doesn’t have much of a minor league track record.
MW: I do like Bay as a hitter. Major-league success means more to me than minor-league track record.
- Dan M.I agree with your post-game assessments Mike. During the second game as the zero’s kept piling up on the scoreboard for OUR Jays (sorry, couldn’t resist) I was also figuring another loss would mean the end of Gibby. I feel he has done everything in his power to make this team win but he still will be the guy to take the fall if that is needed.
The thing that makes me sick is that if the Jays were even hitting at a mediocre clip we would be looking at a first place team because of the unbelievable pitching we have seen.
By the way, I think we finally found the winning combination as far as line-ups go: I predicted back in Spring training that by mid-May we would see Jorge Velandia at short, Scutaro at DH and Rios batting 3rd playing center. Ok, maybe not but that just puts into perspective how this season has taken such drastic turns from what we all expected and hoped for out of the gates.
Speaking of which, Armando was throwing a few pitches in the bullpen last night, chances we see him pitch in Minnesota?
And one more thing, anyone else see Burnett massaging Marcum’s scalp and Shawn nuzzling himself in AJ’s shoulder when he was being congratulated after his 8 inning gem? Funny stuff.
Thanks Mike.
MW: Nuzzling himself? Of course there’s a chance we see Benitez pitch in Minnesota, that’s what he’s here for.
- B-rad from CalgaryMike,
Fine. Concerning teams that could be above 85 wins at the end, I guess we’ll just agree to disagree about Oakland and TB. (I’m not sold on Chicago, and like you really don’t believe in the Twin with guys like Everett, Gomez, and Punto eating up AB.)
I’m also not sure I agree with you that the Jays will be above average with RISP. Just because they’re having bad luck now doesn’t mean they’re going to have good luck later on (just like the fact I’ve yet to win the 6-49 means I’m more likely to win it next week). If their luck normalises and if they play like an averageish offense (and those aren’t small if’s), they might be good for 87-88 wins. I don’t see how you can pull any more wins out of those figures without being labelled (gasp!) an “optimist”.
I will say this… whoever of Tampa, Oakland, Toronto, Cleveland, and Detroit comes to their senses first and signs Barry Bonds as a LF/DH immediately separates themselves from the pack and becomes the favourite to make the post-season.
Thanks again, Mike.
MW: None of them will do that. Nice 6/49 comparison, I’m sure you realize just how incredibly wrong that is, though, right?
- MichaelI say the jays bring back Jacob Brumfield - Greatest Blue Jay ever!!!!!!!!!!…
Any takers?
- AdamIf you are right about Gibbons going if they were swept, that was the worst possible time ever to break the hitting slump!!! Horrible luck! Worse than the Leafs going on a winning streak to drop their chances of first pick!
Good men get fired all the time. Especially in sports. So stop the wimpering.
MW: Whimpering?
- JohnMike…ignore everyone’s comments…its still early in the season…uhm which I remember is exactly what you also said last year at this time.
MW: Last year was a train wreck. This year has yet to approach near that level.
- JeremyYe Mike Wilner, King of Rationality and Logic:
“I didn’t think it needed to be said that the Jays outdraw the Argos and FC on a per-game basis, they do, and by a bunch.”
Last time I checked, the Argos 2007 per-game attendance of 30,931 was higher than the Jays 2007 per-game average of 29,143. Ah, but alas I shall be mocked, for unlike King Wilner, I am unaware that 29,143 is a higher number than 30,391!
Ye Mike Wilner, King of Rationality and Logic:
“If you don’t think the Blue Jays have been extraordinarily unlucky over the course of their first 40 games, that’s your prerogative. I think, though, that that has just as much to do with this as anything else.”
That doesn’t disprove my point in post #64 at all. I never said they haven’t been unlucky. I merely stated that because they’ve been unlucky, that doesn’t mean they will become above average lucky from this point on. If a roulette wheel landed on red 1700 times in a row, I think it’d be safe to say that black had been extremely unlucky. That doesn’t give black a better than 50% chance of hitting on the next spin. Your statements quoted in post #64 give the impression that you believe that to be the case. Regression to the mean simply states that over a prolonged period of time a merited result will occur.