11:30 PM Eastern
For the first time this season, the Jays had a game that they were never in. They got their heads handed to them in a 12-0 loss, it was over after the first inning. You can kind of understand it, though. After a couple of tough losses and then finding out that Vernon Wells was lost for six to eight weeks -it’s never an excuse, but it’s an excuse to drag your tail into the ballpark and be emotionally down.
Nevertheless, this was just the second time this season that the Jays had trailed by more than TWO runs entering the 7th inning. Yes, they’re 17-21, but that’s still an achievement. And that stands even though they’ve lost the last three games by a combined score of 26-4.
I was only going to post that the top of 7th inning was the Blue Jays’ season in a nutshell – four hits, no runs and a hit with runners in scoring position that didn’t score a run. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!
But then we had The JaysTalk, and there were some interesting callers, mostly accusing me of being an optimist at least, and a homer/shill/apologist at worst. I defended myself on the air, and I’ll restate it here: I am a teller of truths.
If you want to see that as being an apologist, that’s your prerogative. Everybody’s talking all this stuff about me, but they don’t understand me, they really don’t know the deal.
Among the truths I tell:
-With 124 games remaining, the Blue Jays’ season is not over.
-The Blue Jays are performing at an historically poor level with runners in scoring position, and without even invoking the law of regression to the mean, it can’t continue.
-Despite how horrible the offense has been, the team is four games under .500.
-At close of business tonight, the Blue Jays are two games behind the Indians and Yankees, and one game ahead of the Tigers – the three teams likeliest to be the main competition for the wild card spot in the American League.
Say what you will, but those facts are indisputable (unless you buy the starts of the White Sox, Twins, Orioles, A’s and Rays). And fine, if you really want to buy the Rays (don’t) – the Jays are four games behind them. With 124 to play.
Longing for the days of Pat Gillick is a fool’s errand. He left this team (in terrible shape, I might add) fourteen years ago, and he’s not coming back. Comparing J.P. Ricciardi to Gillick is equally ridiculous. Gillick is one of the most successful GM’s in history, and almost every other GM working in the game today pales in comparison. The fact that Ricciardi isn’t Gillick isn’t reason to dislike him.
The caller who longed for the days of 1998 when Gord Ash showed “guts” by bringing in Jose Canseco, who hit 46 homers to propel the Jays into a playoff race was misguided, to say the least. First, remember that no one wanted Canseco, coming off a season in which he’d hit .235/.325/.461 with 122 strikeouts in 108 games and having not played more than 119 games in six years, which is why Ash was able to get him to sign a one-year deal.
Second, remember that in 1998, the year in which the Jays compiled their best record in the last 15 years under the great Tim Johnson, the team was TEN games out of the wild card on the first of September. They finished that season four games back (26 out of first), but it was illusorilly close because of their 17-8 run in September – they would have had to go 22-3 to win the wild card outright, and only the Colorado Rockies can do that.
Let’s not revise history, folks. Memories are fallible, facts is facts. I state facts.
Remember to call your Mom! After you leave a comment on this blerg, of course.
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Hey Mike, in light of the Jays hitting woes, do you think the time is right to unleash Russ Adams?
MW: I don’t know if the time is ever right for that. I’d rather give Adam Lind another shot.
- NickI wouldn’t say you tell the truth so much as what you say has truthiness.
And even if your facts are irrefutable, so too is the fact that a more pessimistic stance on the Jays prospects for the rest of the year would result in a loss of listeners, lower ratings for the FAN590 and lower ad revenues for Rogers. As a minor-league Rogers shareholder, I’d be quite upset if you were responsible.
So keep on being truthy, Mike. I need the cash.
And remember (to use your words), even if you disagree with the above, doesn’t mean you’re right.
MW: Actually, disagreeing with you on my motives does mean I’m right. If you believe that I say what I say to keep listeners, ratings and ad revenues up, then I don’t want you listening to me at all.
- bgMike, I disagree. Losing your star centre fielder should have been just the think to motivate these guys to come out and play at another level. Instead they came out and got embarrassed. To me that doesn’t show a lot of mental toughness and perhaps thats why these guys just can’t seem to get the job done with men on base. I know that these guys have hit in the past and I’m confident (like you) that they will come around. But a performance like this one was just pathetic. Is it all in their heads right now or what? Does every single hitter in the lineup not have the confidence to swing the bat with men on base? Or is it their approach? Are they not being aggressive enough, or are they too laid back? I mean are they at least swinging at good pitches but just not squaring them up or what? I know you said that getting hits is gonna fix the hitting but how exactly do you see that changing? At some point don’t you think they need to make and adjustment at the plate?
MW: I do think it’s in their heads, but I also think that even though it’s in their heads somebody could still break a bat and doink one in, or hit a ground ball that gets through somewhere, or flare a little nothing that just drops in an inch fair or something, and it’s really mystifying as to why even that’s not happening at all.
- ChrisMW..factmaster general. here’s some facts.
the jays today featured in their lineup the following
brad wilkerson
Joe Inglett
Kevin Mench
Shannon Stewart
Marco Scutaro
Jorge Velandia
all but Inglett started.
Fact: that team would have trouble beating many AAA teams, including the jays own AAA team if Purcey were starting.
something has gone very, very wrong. the jays may not have jumped the shark yet, buy JP’s got the motorcycle on the ramp…
MW: There’s no question that something has gone very, very wrong. No shortstop and no centre fielder will do that for you. I don’t have a problem with Mench and Stewart starting against a lefty, though, even when the team is at full strength.
- sammy jalalzaioh, and JP’s revving the thing real, real loud
- sammy jalalzaiHi Mike,
I think you’re right, the problem is not so much a lack of offense, but a lack of offense when it counts and that situation can only be attributed (well not entirely but in large part) to plain bad luck, eventually things will sort out. It’s certainly not the GM fault and we do have a pretty good team here.
I’m also glad they got Wilkerson. I liked him when he was with the Montreal Expos. He hasn’t been as good in recent years but he’s still an interesting addition.
MW: I liked him when he was with the Expos, too, but he hasn’t really been a good hitter since then, which is problematic. Still, he’s worth a look.
- AndréSome facts about this team and the players on it, that you may or may not agree with.
-David Eckstein is even more overrated than Derek Jeter (sorry Mike) he has no range and no arm and this perception that he is fast is so not true. He was lucky to fall into the Angels lineup in 02 and that propelled him to get a contract with St. Louis after he was not re-signed. Nice hitter, terrible fielder, no way he should be leading off or batting second.
-Vernon Wells is a solid player bit he is no superstar. Great Defense and two good hitting seasons. Outside of 03 and 06 he is a career .268 hitter.
-John Gibbons does a very good job putting the right pitchers in the game at the right time. Even in 06 when outside of BJ Ryan the bullpen really struggled I thought he did a good job with the pen.Unfortunately Gibbons continuous to bat Alex Rios leadoff where he has batted well under .200 since the move. GIBBONS HE IS NOT A LEADOFF MAN. The perfect leadoff man that would fit this teams philosophy is a guy who hits .270-.280 with an on base over .360. This player also does not need to steal any bases and doesn’t necessarily need any power. You may think the Jays don’t have this guy but they do the name, Greg Zaun. Just because you don’t see catchers bat leadoff doesn’t mean they cant just like moving Eckstein to the 9 hole is a bad idea because he has batted leadoff for his entire career.
-Also, why he starts Wilkerson yesterday against LEFTY CC Sabathia over Shannon stewart is ridiculous. Just because he is new to the team doesn’t mean he starts right away.
In Conclusion Eckstein stinks, Wells is solid, Gibbons is okay and Zaun yes Zaun for leadoff.
Lineup vs Lefties
C Zaun
LF Stewart
3B Rolen
DH Mench
CF Rios
1B Overbay
2B Hill
RF Wilkerson
SS Scutaro
Lineup vs Righties
C Zaun
DH Stairs
3B Rolen
1B Overbay
RF Wilkerson
CF Rios
2B Hill
LF Stewart
SS Scutaro
When Eckstein returns he replaces Scutaro 9th, will worry about Wells later.
What do you think?
MW: I think it’s odd that you would rip Gibbons for starting Wilkerson yesterday against Sabathia, but then have Wilkerson in your line-up against lefties. I wouldn’t lead Zaun off, but I might hit him second. I certainly wouldn’t hit Stairs second and Overbay fourth against righties. Actually, I don’t really like the line-ups you’ve given at all, but at least you put a lot of thought into them.
- BrendanHey Mike,
Yes or no: in or out this year?
I wouldn’t give up at 4 games under .500 in early May, but it does subjectively look grim. JP could either buy or sell given the chips he holds and what’s known to be available. How would you play it?
I’ve got my opinion, but I’d rather hear yours first.
No matter what happens, you remain The Oracle.
High five,
JW.
MW: Still in, not giving up the ghost yet, and not even close. The decision on whether to buy or sell doesn’t need to be made for another 2 1/2 months yet, and if they’re still within 2-3-5 games of the wild card then, you buy. I might try to do a little purchasing now, but I don’t think the sellers would be willing to sell this early, unless you overwhelm them.
- johnny wasHey Mike,
I’m a little confused as to why you think the Tigers are going to be good this year; their pitching staff is pretty awful, especially the pen.
D-Train’s coming off an awful year and didn’t look good in his few starts before the DL; Verlander seems to have lost something – or the league’s caught up with him; Kenny Rogers is old; Robertson was never good and Bonderman … may turn it around, but he’s not looking too hot so far.
Sure, the offense is good on paper, but I don’t think that’s enough to overcome an under performing pitching staff.
(I am trying to avoid thinking about the Jays right now. Please humor me in discussing another team. Thanks.)
MW: It’s funny, because the Tigers and Jays stand in diametric opposition right now. One hits and can’t pitch, one pitches and can’t hit. I think they’ll hit enough to overcome their poor pitching and get back into it, but not make the playoffs. Mostly, I don’t believe in teams like the Twins, White Sox, Orioles, A’s and Rays.
- DougI think its ridiculous to blame JP for any of the problems this year. How can anyone truly say he didn’t put together a good group of guys that can win alot of games in the toughest division, if they played to their career averages. When almost every player is slumping offensively at the same time, how can blame be placed on the front office? Its not like they are all at the twilight of their careers and the FO could see this slump coming (Thomas and Stewart not included). But the Stewart decision doesn’t upset me because if Reed were still here and slumping (which everyone knows he is right now) you would hear the same crap. He had two decent players, and had to pick one. Live with it. The simple truth is that they are in a massive offensive slump, and there is every reason to believe they will come out of it because the law of averages doesn’t lie, even if Vernon is gone for two months.
- BrettFinally a game where I could shut it off and do some studying.
I was at the prog last night when Vernon wrecked himself, and i can’t believe he is now getting critized for diving(people saying it is dumb of him to risk injury and he should be smarter)….give me a break…first you complain he isn’t intense enough and then you harp on him for diving for a ball with a runner on and nobody out in a close game…by the way Hell of a catch Vernon.
- PeeWeeMike the reason so many of use like Reed Johnson over Shannon Stewart is because at the end of each game Reed has his jersy dirty while Shannon’s is sparkling clean and soft. It’s a little something I like to call GRIT.
MW: You like to call it grit, huh? Other people do too, I think. Grit doesn’t win baseball games.
- AlexHey Mike,
Didn’t hear jays talk tonight b/c I couldn’t bear to watch the rest of the game or listen anymore to Jays’ stuff tonight.
But, 38 games in and, yes only 4 games under .500, but looking REALLY bad. And, without Vernon, it should NOT get better … if it does, what does that say about Vernon? … Mench, Wilkerson? Oy! Trading away Marcum, McGowan, etc is not the answer. I don’t know what is … but, its hard to be optimistic and excited for the season ALREADY. Very sad. But, I’ll keep watching everyday.
Happy Mother’s Day.
MW: Someday we’re going to have to have some sort of “slow start group therapy” thing for all these Jays fans. I know that it doesn’t look good, but we haven’t even hit the quarter pole yet, and as bad as they’ve been, their record just isn’t that bad. That should be encouraging, people!
- MichaelHey Mike…..I don’t think you are an apologist at all…I’ve heard you be critical many times and supportive when you deem it appropriate….I will say this, though….despite being just 4 games under .500 and even with things bound to improve with RISP, bottom line is bottom line…..a team has been assembled here(even when healthy) that is simply not good enough to make the playoffs…there’s just no way around that.
MW: Actually, there is. You can’t make that judgement with about 78% of the season left to be played. Are you saying the same of the Yankees and Indians? Because they’re only two games better than the Jays.
- SamHey there Mike,
I’ve been in China for the last 10 years so I want to thank Jerry, Alan (Warren as well) and yourself for providing an entertaing radio call complete with a solid understanding of the game and stats.
My point:
I don’t blame John Gibbons for the situation that the team is in but at the same time baseball is a business and if the customers are not satisfied then a head needs to roll.
The fact that almost all hitters (with the exception of Rolen) are having sub par years cannot be a coincidence. Something isn’t right in the clubhouse and a new face will allow the guys to play “with a clean slate”.
I flew over for spring training and saw Cito Gaston there…he looked like a man ready to leap into the ring again.
I agree that Gibbons hasn’t made many serious errors but Cito would put fans in the seats, creat a buzz about the team, and and give hope to the folks who buy the buy tickets.
…and I think Ted wouldn’t need to break the bank to get him.
Your thoughts?
Brad
MW: My immediate thoughts are that going back to the past to try to repeat it is rarely, if ever, a great idea. Cito was the best manager this team has ever had, but was a train wreck his last couple of seasons. I do think it’s mostly coincidence that everyone is going so badly, and I definitely don’t think that heads need to roll when the customers are dissatisfied. If that were true, there would be a new manager every week.
- BradOk teller of truths. The Jays need to go 78-46 to win 95, anything less may not be enough.
Given that our pitching may not hold up to this standard all year. Wells is out, both shortstops are out and no one can hit, do you truthfully think the Jays can go 78-46 (.630)?
I don’t mean is it possible, but do you think they will do it?
MW: It’s possible. I don’t think they will, but I don’t think they need to win 95, either.
- WayneYup, Jays are indeed in the hunt, mathematically, for the wildcard. But no one on Planet Reality thinks that the Jays have the depth of talent, nor the economic resources (like when a CF is lost for 8 weeks and a quality player needs to be purchased) to compete with Cleveland, Detroit, and especially the Yankees.
BTW, I find it quite humourous that in this current blog you did not mention catching Boston. If I recall, you laughed at me when I stated there was no chance they could catch Boston, all of 4 games ago. Funny how that goes, eh?
Two upcoming comments from the GM:
1. 6 weeks from now, when they are 5 games out a WC spot, “we are competing on a nightly basis, and when we get our roster back complete we will certainly challenge for the playoffs”.
2. Late August, when we are 9 games out of a WC: “this has been a frustrating year, given all the injuries we have had to key players, but we still have a chance, if we get hot”
MW: I don’t have a problem with the comment six weeks from now – if they tread water while Wells is out, that’s cool. I didn’t mention Boston not because I don’t think they can be caught, it was just easier to concentrate on the teams that aren’t leading their divisions.
- Paul BI was hopeful while the pitching remained strong, but with 26 runs against in three games, I am admittedly having doubts. But above all, like you said Mike, there are still over 120 games to go.
- Minor IrritationMW…time will tell for sure, but you really have to reconsider the comments you are making about the Rays. Do you think they are incapable of winning because their name is “Tampa Bay Rays”? That is the attitude of a bad Jays Talk caller.
I love the Jays but lets seriously compare these two teams as they stack up vs one another.
1b: Pena vs Overbay : Winner…Rays
2b: hill vs Iwamura: Winnner Jays
ss: Eck/mac vs Bartlett: Push
3b: Rolen/Longoria: short term jays…but very soon Rays
Lf: Stewart/Lind/Wilkerson vs Crawford….ummm not close
Cf: Wells vs Upton: Ill take upton even before the injury
Rf: Rios vs Gross : Rios.
Dh: Stairs/Mench vs Hinske/Gomes: push
SP:
Doc vs Kazmir: push
AJ vs Shields: sorry..its shields
Mcgowan vs Garza..Mcgowan
Marcum vs Jackson..marcum for now
Litsch vs Sossan whatever: push.
Penn: Jays win this based on depth.
so while the jays have an advantage in starting pitching depth, at the positions, the Rays are a bit better i think. Now with the talent of Jackson and Garza, the starting pitching might tighten up as well. My point isnt that the Rays are great, its that they are very much close to the Jays in talent…i dont see why you’d so easily dismiss them.
also the Rays have some serious stud starters down in the minors that will push the guys already up in the bigs. this team has a great future. you better recognize.
MW: There’s no question that the Rays have a great future ahead of them, I just don’t think the future is now. And I wouldn’t take Pena over Overbay based on one great year (and a crappy start to this one), nor would I push DH or Halladay/Kazmir. Also, no question it’s Shields over A.J., but Shields/Marcum is a push, and A.J/Jackson is a win for the Jays.
- sammy jalalzaiMy teams cleanup hitter was Kevin Mench tonight no matter the injury’s that can never happen again I haven’t heard Jays talk lateley for varous reasons but do others share my sentiment Mench is a 7th place hitter (maybe 2nd on the 08′ jays not cleanup) but a question unrelated; Would you consider Harold Baines a better dh than Edgar Martinez and what ever happened to Pat Listach?
owen
MW: Listach faded into Bolivia after five crappy seasons wherein he never approached his ROY numbers, I liked Edgar better than Baines, and I don’t have a problem with Mench in the middle of the line-up against a lefty.
- oweni forgot catcher..
zaun/barajas vs navarro..rays in a landslide..and before you think navarros numbers are a fluke..please refer to his numbers for the second half of last year, they were getting very, very good..this guy is a player.
MW: Navarro’s numbers are a fluke, but he still has the chance to be a good player. He’s no .350 hitter, though.
- sammy jalalzaiExplain one thing to me. How do you figure Pat Gillick left the franchise in terrible shape? It was not Pat’s fault that LaBatts was taken over by Innerbrew, who cared nothing about baseball and let the franchise rot for years. I know Gord had his faults (believe me, I’d never defend him), but the clubs lack of solid local ownership until Mr Rogers bought the team was the biggest undoing as I watched the franchise become a skid row franchise and the fans which were once so plentiful turn the back on the team. If there’s something I’m missing here, please explain it to me.
MW: I don’t remember exactly when the ownership change happened, but Ash had more money to spend on payroll than Gillick did. Interbrew, for the most part, signed the cheques and stayed away.
- Jim BranscomeWith Wells out for a significant period of time, is it not time for a trade to at least keep us in the race or at the very least a new manger just for the sake of change.
MW: It’s never time to switch managers just for the sake of change. I think you give Wilkerson a chance, and if he’s not up to it, give Lind another shot. I just don’t think that there are other teams out there looking to deal talent just yet.
- MikeAll I can say is, the way things are going it feels like our record is 10-28…so it’s somewhat comforting to look at the standings and see that we are only 4 games under .500.
A couple things:
-Scoot is making it easy to forget we lost 2 shortstops to injury in one game.
-One win in the last 15 games in Cleveland??? Ouch. I knew we sucked there but didn’t realize it was that bad.
-We desperately need Hill and Rios to be what we know they can be…without them contributing we are in serious trouble.
Keep up the good work Mike. In baseball-starved Alberta your blog is a must-read at least once a day.
MW: Thanks. And I give Scoot 2-3 more days before he hits the wall like he did in April.
- B-rad from CalgaryMike you state facts that do not overshadow the lack of success.
These are the Truths
2002- 78-84
2003- 86-76
2004- 67-94
2005- 80-82
2006- 87-75
2007- 83-76
J.P is 481-487
J.P is 2006 where boston was killed with injuries had his best season getting four more wins than Gord Ash in 2000 winning 87 games finishing 10 games behind the yankees. Ash finishing 4.5
The Truth Is
Both Gillick and Ash Provided Solid Bats through the Farm Gillick Providing Delgado, Ash Providing RIOS and WELLS, REED JOHNSON,
J.P Aaron Hill
The Truth is
Hitting is about Mechanics,Philosophy and phycology. These area’s contribute to one’s success at the plate. According to you Jays need to just hit the ball. Are you trying to say they are not hitting the ball because they don’t want to or something within their abilry is not right. It has to be one of the two because you suggesting that they are not winning because they are not hitting is too cut and dry.
J.P’s in his tenure regarding Games Behind in the division has never been in single.
digits in semptember
When Gord Ash was fired in 2001. Godfrey’s statement according to CBC news was that the jays must go in a different direction because they were six years without a playoff birth, we are now fifteen years without a playofff birth and seven years into a regime that hasn’t got us there. Why is this regime still in place. Do we not need to go in a different direction as Godrey did when jays were six years without a playoff birth.
The Facts is Gillick swung a Gutsy Deal Which solidified our offense. Brining Great Players in Alomar and Carter. And trading great players in Tony Franandez and Fred Mcgriff Ash made a Gutsy move bringing in Conseco and an amzing move bringing in Clemens. J.P has not made major moves that impacted this team in the standings.
These are the Facts.
MW: You must be the guy from last night. The Canseco deal wasn’t “gutsy”, it was a shot in the dark that worked, and that’s fine. But that you think the deal was “gutsy” doesn’t make it a fact, that’s an opinion. Ash didn’t bring in Roger Clemens, Paul Beeston did, and the move didn’t impact on the Jays’ playoff chances, since they didn’t make it then, either.
FACT – Reed Johnson is NOT a solid bat.
And seriously, are you saying that because a J.P. team with a better record finished farther behind in the standings than an Ash team with a worse record that that’s a poor reflection on Ricciardi? Because that’s insane.
- JohnIn the mid to late 90s my eyes were opened to a simple fact : Maple Leafs ownership simply was not interested in winning, it was all about the bottom line. It was at that point that I lost all interest in them, and unfortunately for me it ruined hockey for me for at least 10 years (I am only slowly starting to come back now).
To me, the writing is on the wall here with the Jays. JP hasn’t accomplished one thing on the field since arriving, but where he has thrived is by growing attendance each year and the coffers of Mr. Rogers. No one can put a true value to having the Rogers brand being pounded into the heads of millions of Jays fans anywhere they are following the team. So Mr. Rogers has no problem with JP because financially the team is healthy. Is there Mark Cubanish passion there to win? Absolutely not. If there was, this wouldn’t be tolerated.
I was very annoyed when JP brushed off the Bonds issue on Wednesday. It was as if he was saying in his head that he had already said what he needed to end it, so why did he need to address it again? The fact is that the week before he sounded way more open to the idea and that there was a reason holding him back that he couldn’t share, and then the next week he comes out firing nonsense about winning with the right guys and what not. Um what was with Paul Lo Duca? Gregg Zaun? Troy Glaus? And that’s just what WE know. Who knows what inside baseball information JP might have on some of his own guys. I really wish you would have challenged him right then and there and ask why he didn’t have strong opinions about Bonds the previous week when he was asked.
Sorry for the rant, 12-0 games can do that to a guy. There are things that can be done to improve this team, but we have a GM that won’t do them, and an owner that is apparently more than content with the situation. All I want is an exciting baseball product, and the Jays are truly failing.
MW: The last point I don’t get. The Blue Jays have been an exciting baseball product for the last three years, at least.
- AriHey Wilner,
I noticed that “WillRain” claimed that the jays offense in 06 was only bad for a month last year, well that’s not true at all. I would really like to see his “closer examination” because when I went back and did some research, it was even worse than I thought. Excluding the 1st 2 months of the season, the Jays averaged 4.58 runs per game, just to give you an idea of how bad that is, that would have put them in 22nd in runs scored in 06, had they hit at that rate all season. That is 4 bad months versus 2 good months, I fail to see how it is just 1 bad month. Furthermore, after the all star break it was even uglier, and one of the worst in all of baseball. This furthers my point, that this core has been horrible offensively for a long time now, and them just turning it around out of the blue is definetly not a sure thing.
MW: Nothing is a sure thing, but they haven’t been THIS bad for a long time now, which is the point everyone seems to miss. NOBODY HITS .200 WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION! NOBODY!
- TerryYes, Mike, you tell the truth.
But what exactly about this team makes you think they are playoff-caliber?
Let’s be optimistic and suppose that a 90-win season will be enough to secure a wildcard spot (probably not, but let’s play along).
The Jays must win 73 of their remaining games to win 90 total. That is a .589 clip (which over a full season equals 95 wins).
Could they do this? It’s possible. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Unless you think that this team, without its best position player for the next 50 or so games, is in reality a 95-win quality team.
MW: And yet, if they’re a 90-win team, then you shouldn’t necessarily expect them to have a 17-21 either, so it should even out. I don’t like the whole “because they did this, they now have to do this” because it all changes so quickly. If they have another 6-1 week like they just did, then they take a big chunk out of that .589.
- Robert DudekThere has to be something behind the Jays poor performance in Cleveland. 1-15? I know the Indians have had good ballclubs but 1-15 is unimaginable.
I keep coming back to scouting, can you shed any light on the Jays major league scouting practices? Do we have the same number of scouts as other clubs? Fewer?
Seems like the Jays need to hire someone to sit at the Jake for a summer and figure out how to pitch to these Indians.
MW: Sometimes teams have another team’s number. It sucks, but it’s one of those things about sports. The Jays couldn’t win in Texas for years and years, but they swept the Rangers there this year.
- MCHi Mike,
As the small print says:
“Past performance is not an indication of future performance.”
According to my detailed calculations no matter what batting average, on base or slugging or any other stat a player has, when it comes down to any individual plate appearance, the chances are 50/50. A batter will either get on base, or they won’t.
They can’t get .326 or .201 of a hit. They can’t get .416 of a double. They’ll either get on base, or they won’t. It’s 50/50!
This is why I love baseball.
This is why my eternal optimism will keep me rooting for the Jays until that magic number is down to zero!
Keep up the excellent work MW!
Aneez
MW: Thanks, but it’s not 50/50. The odds are much higher, in every situation, that the player won’t get on base. Unless he’s Barry Bonds.
- AneezMike,
You made a comment last night, “if these guys all have average years they’ve got a shot at the playoffs” or close to it. First, just making the playoffs now, you must have 2-3 guys with career years or above avg ones.
Sure we’ve got pitching, so what? Who’s hitting for us? Don’t tell me Rios, please. Certainly to this point no clutch hitting, and lots of fellas left on base, so I’ll stick with my prediction, these guys will be out by 15 by the all-star break. They showed no heart last night whatsoever, very disappointing.
I haven’t mentioned the injury bug either, so far up to four on the DL. One more ‘freak injury’ and then what? So I figure if the Jays lose another 5 on this road trip, it’s time to start pounding the drum for change.
MW: I don’t agree with your first point, unless you count pitchers as having career years, too, because if the Jays are average at the plate a couple of pitchers will have to have career years, which more than a couple are doing right now.
- BrendanWilner, you’ve finally gone enough over the deep end that I have to say something (long-time listener/first time writer). You simply need to stop defending this pathetic team!! It sounds ridiculous. For at least three or four weeks now you’ve been saying that this team can’t continue playing this way because “they just can’t”. (Very compelling.) And for the entirety of that whole time you’ve been WRONG!! At the beginning of that stretch there was no logical reason that their fortunes had to change; and there is even less reason to believe it now. If anything, your argument is considerably weaker now because this offence has proven for an extended period that they just flat-out SUCK. At what point will the evidence be overwhelming enough for you to see the facts for what they are? Your regression-to-the-mean style argument isn’t “truth”; it is simply hope. And probably false hope at that. Eventually you will have to forget about what guys like Overbay, Stewart, Eckstein, etc. did three or four years ago, because the 2008 versions of those players just can’t get it done. That to me matters far more than what they might have done in 2003 or ’05 or so. A lot of the guys on this team were brutal in ’07 too, so it’s not like it can be called one fluke season. JP probably doesn’t think he can politically make another hitting coach his designated fall-guy so quickly, otherwise he’d probably jump at the chance.
On top of defending this team so much, you just have to stop defending JP!! The guy is a disaster!! This is his 7th year running the team. Not only have they never made the playoffs–how many times have they even been in the playoff race in September and given us something to be excited about?! Zero. It’s always some new excuse with him, whether it be the budget, the competition, the hitting coach, injuries, whatever. Always something. Meanwhile a once-proud franchise has been mediocre for years now under his watch. And he has embarrassed the franchise in the eyes of baseball followers everywhere through the handling of situations like B.J. Ryan, Hillenbrand, Thomas, etc. It’s like a bunch of clowns running this organization. Even this whole “throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks” philosophy they’ve had with LF this year had precedent last year with the pathetic way they tried to bring in mediocre players to fill out the pitching staff (Ohka, Zambrano, Thompson).. and that didn’t work either!! They only got lucky when McGowan and Marcum turned into gems unexpectedly, even though management had no confidence in them out of spring training and had no intention of using them in the rotation.
Bottom line, the entire JP era has been a disaster, and he simply has to go. It is negligent on the part of upper Jays management to let the mediocrity with this team continue to fester for as many years as it has without him losing his job for it. Gibbons I don’t think is as faulty for taking the mediocre roster he’s been given and making it mediocre.. but on the other hand he’s been in his role long enough now to conclusively prove he’s not part of the solution either. So they could can him too and I wouldn’t care; but nothing is going to fundamentally cure what ails this team until JP is gone.
Thanks.
MW: I’m glad you finally commented, because you’re exactly the type of fan this post was aimed at. But your mind has been made up for a long time now, so I’m not going to change it.
- BenUnfortunately, JP is not the innovative man they thought he was when they hired him.
Minor league system sucks,his trades suck, his signings suck, his handling of people suck.
I remember when he first came and he ran most of the scouts out of town. The guys responsible for their best players today.
I am baffled that he still has a job.
Surely there must be other people floating around who could do much better.
MW: Well, if everything he has done has sucked, then there definitely would be lots.
- OwenThanks for your optimism. I woke up this morning thinking that the Jays season was as good as over. But having read your post,I now realize that’s simply not the case. Thanks for turning around my thought process.
Having said all that, enough is enough with the poor hitting. It’s almost like a really really bad dream, watching these guys hit (or not hit, especially with RISP.)
Last weekend I predicted the Jays would take at least 3 of 4 from the White Sox, so today I’ll predict the bats will come alive in a Blue Jays win behind a solid performance from AJ.
- Cam1. A true Cleveland Steamer
2. Mom always told me there’d be days like this. Today I’ll thank her for that.
3. The only thing more horrifying than listening to the Jays game last night was hearing the repeated adds for Sinbad’s upcoming performance at a local Casino and the gobsmacking realization that I have somehow wandered into this target demographic. How did this happen? Where have I gone astray? Has it really come to this?
4. Oddly enough, after McGowan’s six spot in the first, I thought this might be exactly what the Jay’s offense needed: no pressure because the game was already over. Didn’t exactly work out that way.
5. The Jays made a huge mistake in signing Brad Wilkerson. They clearly should have singed Chuck Norris as he would make opposing pitchers cry like babies every time he stepped into the batters box. Chuck Norris roundhouse kicks both left and right handed pitching to the tune of a 1.000 avg and averages 1 homerun in every sinlge at bat. And yes, sometimes he hits more than 1 homerun in an at bat despite the fact that this defies the laws of physics. (He round house kicks the laws of physics into submission.) Chuck Norris also plays every field position and has never been charged with an error. Chuck Norris is incapable of error.
MW: To point 3 – it’s sad because it’s true.
- peteMike, just a question on the “option” technicality, re: Joe Inglett.
I thought that when a player was optioned out (as Inglett was on Friday), he had to stay in the minors for a certain time (7 or 10 days?). But now Inglett is recalled even before getting on the plane to Syracuse. How come this was possible?
MW: Because it relates to a move with the disabled list.
- NormMike, I’m really concerned about the callup of Benitez; one good appearance for Single-A Dunedin does not a bullpen stud make.
Please tell me he’ll only get garbage innings and not be a setup man
MW: It was one good appearance for Syracuse. I don’t know how they’ll use him, but I’ll bet Gibbons trusts him in a big spot more than he does Frasor.
- ZackMike, really appreiciate what you do and the time it takes, we’re all just hyper frustrated at the moment, this should really be the best Jays club since 93. Which other Baseball media people in TO do you read and most respect? {other than Gerry & Allan of course}
MW: I love everbody.
- Phil SmithEver notice when there is a blow out in MLB between two teams they always seem to come in numbers – seems there were a few blow outs again last night.
No biggie here for the Jays – maybe a wake-up call who knows. Not the first time this has happended nor the last – giving up 12 runs doesn’t bother me as much as scoring none does.
Living in the past fans as far as Gillick etc goes is ridiculous – accept what is fact – JP is the GM and a damn good one.
Look at the positive a 17-21 record with basicaly no hitting just good strong pitching. If the pitching continues even at a slightly lesser rate and the hitting (risp) grows to even mid league levels the Jays will be fine.
As I watch the Jays at the plate player after player – a pitch goes by sometimes two in the same at bat and I wonder what the heck was wrong with that pitch – sometimes I think they are being a bit too selective and patient – too many times as I see it the Jays batters have allowed the count to go into the pitchers advantage – then look out it’s tough to get a hit when they start throwing “junk”.
Stay positive – plenty of games to go!
Very nice touch Mike to remind em to “call Mom!
- BobAs usual your the voice of reason amongst the shill voices of the panicked passionate fans. I agree at some point they have to regress/egress to the average. Hopefully a loss like this will snap something into them but with the next two pitchers they are facing I’m not very optimistic. Anyway, with Wells injured it looks like grabbing a couple OF was a good idea but do you think JP makes another move or are players we have now good enough to fill in?
MW: If the regression to the mean starts happening now, then they’re good enough to fill in now. I think whether another move is made depends on how Wilkerson does at the plate, and the returns since 2004 ain’t good.
- NickMike I think you are one of the fairest guys in accessing the team. No homer bias, however I think you thinking we are still in is crazy. 38 games in and I believe the Jays need 95 wins to make the playoffs, thus a 78-46 win to loss ratio in the final games. No Chance. In addition Gibbons may be doing his best job this year but he has to go to make the fans mildly happy. He has no emotion and the team takes that atitude. Well you you know, that that that’s base ba baseball and Iit it it goes that wa wa way sometimes. No more Elmer fudd running millionaire ball players. And he always gives guys days off for no good reason. And Finally, two guys off the scrap heap hitting 2nd and 4th come on. These two guys are going to be like the pitchers last year that were released. Thanks, Scott.
MW: But the Indians, Yankees and Tigers have the chance to go 76-48, right? I don’t think that they’ll necessarily need 95 wins to make the playoffs, but that’s a whole other thing.
- ScottTruths Continued.
What is not true is that Pat Gillick left this team in terrible shape.
What is True is that Gillick left this city after providing two world series championships. That is not terrible shape.
What is true is that Previous Regimes aquired better, more impactful personell.
What is true is that Alex Gonzales who was drafted by Ash who you say was stealing money from us is the equivalance of John Mcdonald on the offensive end and not as strong on the defensive end but still very good.
The truth is Despite last years injuries, we still had great pitching combined with Wells (who’s injury you make seem like Mike Sirotka, but yet a year later he’s pounding the ball) Rios,Stsirs,Hill,T
homas,overbay up until July. Who we didn’t have was REED who you say can’t hit, Greg Zaun who was hitting .190 befor his injury, Overbay who was hitting .230 befor the injury. I guess what your saying is seasons hinge on our role players.
MW: Overbay up until the beginning of June, and you can’t argue with the years that Rios, Hill and Stairs had last season. If they were still doing the same thing, this team would be in much better shape right now. That Gillick won two World Series titles doesn’t mean that he left the team in good shape to win more in the future, which he didn’t.
- JohnGonzalez was slightly better than McDonald offensively (little better obp, more HR, WAY more strikeouts) and slightly worse defensively, but he was making about 8 times as much as Johnny Mac in relative dollars and was hitting second!
It’s easy to say that they need to start hitting. But what specifically do they need to do. The struggling hitters need to try to hit to the opposite field more regularly. Cito Gaston always said that the best way to end a slump is to hit to the opposite field. Marco Scutaro has been the teams best hitter lately. If you look at Scutaro’s hitting chart at Rogers Centre more than half his hits are to right. The vast majority of Wells’ hits are to right. Then look at Aaron Hill’s chart. It looks like a clogged drain on the left side. Stewart- clogged drain. But most of his hits are to right. Stairs-you guessed it-clogged drain on the right side. Look at Overbay who’s going well and you’ll see he uses all parts of the field. Denbo should say to everyone who is hitting below .280 to try and hit the other way at every at bat. The entire team should try to hit opposite when they have runners in scoring position. Why do they hit into so many double plays? They are trying to pull. They try to pull and they ground out weakly. I’m not calling for Denbo’s head. I’m calling for him to start coaching some of these guys.
- DAWGMaybe the readers of “Miked Up” cant handle the truth?
Do you think Accardo has been hurt all season or was this just a recent thing. Think the Club knew about the injury?
MW: If they did know, they should have been smart enough not to keep running him out there in big situations, so I don’t know if he’d been hurt a while and they didn’t know, or it just cropped up. I would suspect that the injury is part of what’s prevented him from throwing his splitter effectively.
- Brett VHey Mike, do you think that since A.J. Burnett is going to opt out of his contract next year, if we are a still far from a playoff race we trade him for maybe a bat, or some prospects
MW: Yup
- TomHello Mike, You know, for mother’s day so far, I’ve gotten an opportunity to sleep in, a hand made card from my son, breakfast made for me and a new planter for the deck. I think I will also count your new entry as a gift. It’s so easy to panic and lose perspective when you are passionate about a sport or a team. It’s also very easy to turn on a person like you who manages to keep their perspective in that situation. That’s compounded in your case by people thinking that since you make your living related to baseball you are either a) a partisan playing politics (whoa, alliteration!) or b) so emotionally invested that logic is thrown by the wayside. Personally, I like you. I don’t agree with all your opinions, but I respect your greater knowledge and exposure. I also think calling you or blogging disrepectfully about your motivations is rather distasteful, like clipping your toenails at someone else’s house.
In short, thank you for this reality check, and I agree with you. I still think that the seeds of greatness in this team are not early blooomers, and if there were some way to speed it up I wish they would. But I doubt I wish it as much as the people who are playing the game. I’ve been thinking lately that it must be a great deal easier to be a Royals fan, none of that pesky playoff ambition to get in the way of enjoying baseball. I’m not changing my allegiance though. I’m a baseball fan in Canada, what’s a little challenge to me?
And as always, a question. Yesterday, Jamie Campbell and Pat Tabler were mentioning that Russ Adams is seeming to settle in all right in the outfield in AAA. He’s a nice left handed bat, any chance of us seeing him up here soon, or will they wait a while to make sure he’s got the fundamentals down? Thanks.
MW: I’d give Lind another shot before I brought Adams up, but it’s nice to see him settling in somewhere. I’ve always thought he could wind up a Chuck Knoblauch-type as an OF. Happy Mother’s Day!
- kitaTough news on Vernon. I actually broke my left wrist exactly the same way. I was sliding for a flyball and my glove caught the ground in the same manner while my body kept going. Mind you, it probably didn’t look nearly as impressive as Vernon’s catch and it was during a co-ed softball game but I did come up with the ball at least.
It took me six weeks to get the cast off and then another two or three weeks to get the strength and mobility back in my wrist. However, I didn’t try swinging a bat again until the next season. Hopefully, Vernon, as an elite athlete (this may surprise you but I’m nowhere near an elite athlete) can recover more quickly and get back in this lineup.
Losing Vernon may not be the end of the world here. It may just be what some of the guys need to get them going, to re-focus and carry the load in Vernon’s absence.
And as a side note Mike, “facts is facts” should read, “facts are facts.” Just stating the facts.
MW: Thanks for the grammar tip – I did that on purpose, but I appreciate the correction. True, you’re nowhere near an elite athlete, nor do you have the access Vernon does to trainers and doctors and whatever they can do get the healing process going faster. Nice job holding on to the ball, though!
- Derek ParkinHey mike, where’s gillick the gm now?
MW: In Philly, winning the NL East last year.
- WillThan I guess You would call a Barry Bonds signing a shot in the Dark.
MW: No, Bonds is WAY more a sure thing than Canseco was 10 years ago.
- Johnand in your mind is gillick doing well?
MW: He was in the playoffs last year, he’s taken three teams to the post-season since he was here, so I’d say yes.
- WillMike, fine if you consider Marcum having a career year after 30 + games, and no fielders/batters having a career year, than you still expect the Jays to be contending by the time September comes around? Tell you what, up until two days ago and Wells injury, the Jays offense has been non-existent and how do you propose this will get better with 2 decent hitters being on the DL?
Even with a fully healthy lineup, these guys were not hitting!
Been watching this club since the early 1980′s. Love the Jays, been through the high’s and low’s with this club.
Riccardi’s been talking through one side of his mouth and then the other. I can do this in 5 years, on a budget of $50 million a few years ago, so on and so on. The “if this and if that happens” for the Jays has to stop. 7 years of this now, I tired of the promises, the let down, the garbage hitting, no clutch hitting, no consistency through April to September.
Still a Jay fan, but I’ll start pounding the drum for heads to roll soon, and I don’t think i’ll be the only one.
MW: Soon? You’ve already been passed by the multitudes.
- BrendanOh ya to this point Jp has won four more games than Ash than Ash did in 2000. J.P has been here for seven years and has been through several lineup changes. Jays are Four games better than they were in 2 000. One 87 win season, BUT they finished 10 games out of first and 1 game in front of Boston who was hammered with injuries. What an i mprovement J.P. Mike your right you do tell the truth that are the easiest to tell, much like how many games are left in a season.
MW: I know that one. 124.
- JohnHey Mike,
I was just wondering — off topic im sorry — if a batter has ever charged the mound and instead of standing there to receive the angry batter, the pitcher opted for running away ?
I saw the video of Sexson running into Gabbard the other night and it made me wonder what if that was not 6,2 Gabbard and was rather 5,8 Scott Kazmir. Im thinking it would be no shame in running away from a 6,8 angry Sexson — but is there some sort of baseball code where you have to face an angry batter ?
MW: I have seen pitchers try to run, and be chased. I saw a third baseman intercept an angry hitter once as he chased a backpedalling pitcher, can’t remember who the combatants were, though.
- DaveHey Mike
- marioTough loss.What was tougher though was knowing that we actually had almost no chance of winning after Sizemore made it one nothing.Although I kept watching there was no optimism.I hate feeling that way with that offence you can hardly blame me.I would like to point out Rios running to first on the grounder to second in the first inning he looked almost non-chalant.I hope it was just me but one thing I don’t want too see is the players giving up on themselves and the team.Like you keep saying averages will average out until then we got to keep beleiving.
GO JAYS!!!
MARIO
I don’t understand your “everything is ok” approach with the Jays all the time. Your basically saying no matter how poorly the Jays are doing right now, everything will be all right at the end. Meanwhile, writers like Blair are much more blunt and pessimistic and choose not to always look at the positive side of things. Do you realize what kind of hole the Jays have put themselves in early in the season for a team that was supposed to compete? This team has showed no signs of going on a long winning streak under Gibbons and especially this season. Also, how can you be so sure the Jays will turn it around offensively? History in baseball happens all the time and maybe this is the jays year to make history for hitting with RISP. In addition, you are contradicting yourself by saying the Jays should get an impact bat now and by saying the Jays offense will turn it around. Lastly, I have never heard you openly criticize Gibbons or Ricciardi. You might undirectly criticize JP for signing Barajas, but it is not really criticizing. Instead, you choose to continuously defend them for everything and anything. You would gain more respect from the fans if you were more critical of the team and management.
MW: You’ve never heard me criticize, unless you’ve heard me criticize, but those criticisms don’t count. If you haven’t heard me criticize Gibbons and Ricciardi, you haven’t been listening, but if you expect me to tear a strip off of them each time the Jays lose, you’d be disappointed. I didn’t like the signings of Barajas or David Eckstein, thinking they were unnecessary, and I’ve said many times I’m surprised at how short the leash was on Adam Lind. Last year, I tore a strip off Gibby for not using Scott Downs against Curtis Granderson in an obvious ninth-inning situation in Detroit in a game they wound up losing. I think I’m pretty blunt, but more realistic than pessimistic. Look, if you choose to believe the season is over on May 11th, that’s up to you, but it’s pretty stupid to write off a season that’s not even 25% done.
- aviHi, Mike
Is it now time to cut John Gibbons loose? It appears to me, anyway, that the club has stopped playing for him. Further to that, the ball club has looked completely apathetic while at the plate for the last week or so, and has struggled (to put it lightly) all season offensively. So…possibly Gary Denbo needs to go as well. I do know he’s only been with the club for less than 2 months (not taking the Spring into consideration) but it’s quite obvious that whatever he’s saying or doing isn’t working. Just look at Alex Rios for example. Who, as an aside, in my mind is NOT your leadoff man, regardless of who is healthy and who is not. Furthermore, while on a rant I may as well add someone else to the chopping block. If Marty Pevey sends another runner with nobody out and forces a close play at the plate he is demonstrating that he does not belong at third base. Although it may seem severe, a major coaching personnel move is necessary. And although I defended him up and down for the past three seasons, maybe it’s time to send J.P. packing also. How important does Reed Johnson look now. Not to mention he was the heart and soul of the team and the only player last year who actually played with some fire. My solution… give this ball club to Ernie Whitt. Is he ready to be a Major League manager? Maybe not, but in my opinion he can’t be any worse that John Gibbons.
I know this was extremely verbose, but I feel lighter after writing it!
Regards,
Ryan
p.s. continue correcting those who phone you and refer to the Jays as “us” or “we”
MW: I’ll never understand the people who want Ernie Whitt as manager. Because his name was fun to chant when he was playing doesn’t mean he can manage a major league team. He couldn’t handlt the job of bench coach last year. I’m glad you feel lighter, that’s what venting is all about. But how about placing the blame where it belongs – on the players who aren’t producing. I’m not even going to touch the Reed Johnson thing.
- Ryan McMillanSay thanks to Jerry and Ashby for a superb job yesterday. The game was over in the first innings but they really kept me tuned for a good part of the game. Tremendous skills! Campbell and Tabler should take a leaf outta their book.
- BeburgMike, your baseball knowledge is great. Love the way you break down your X’s and O’s. Get behind the Mike please!
Sadly, I do believe in the Rays and A’s (and even the White Sox to an extent).
The A’s look a lot like the Jays–lots of pitching, lots of defense, maybe not so much in the way of hitting–but have the advantage of a) being a team that’s getting better, not older, and b) getting to play the Mariners and Rangers instead of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays (yes, Rays). Just because the A’s pitchers aren’t household names doesn’t mean they can’t keep it up. (There was a time when people outside Toronto didn’t know McGowan, and even fans in Toronto didn’t know Marcum.)
(Seriously, now that the Wild Card is here to stay, when is MLB going to ditch the unbalanced schedule? The fact that strength of schedule is a huge factor in who gets to the playoffs… what is this, the NFL?)
With Kazmir and Shields, Tampa has a top two to compete with anyone in baseball. And between Garza, Sonnanstine, Jackson, Hammel, Niemann, McGee, Davis (and maybe even Price) they’ll cobble together something for 3-5. The bullpen looks good. They’ve improved their defense (getting Upton out of the infield, and getting Bartlett and Longoria in helps a lot). And they’ve got a lot of talent in the lineup.
The White Sox starters after Vazquez are pitching a lot better than anyone (except maybe Kenny Williams) expected. But while Floyd is probably the beneficiary of a lot of luck (I think he stole it from Buerhle), Danks has shown enough skills that it’s believable he’ll keep it. And the hitting should continue even if (when?) Quentin cools down as Cabrera, Swisher, Konerko all can’t be quite this bad.
My point is Toronto looks about as good (or as flawed) as any of these teams. I’d be interesting in hearing the case they’re clearly BETTER. (And then there’s the question if the Yankees, Indians, and Tigers ever turn things around–it might already be starting in Cleveland.)
OK, so the Jays are under-performing their expected wins-loss by about 2 wins based on runs allowed and scored. But they should have scored more runs, you say. Yes, the Jays can’t keep hitting this poorly with runners in scoring position. But what if that improves and they stop hitting well (relatively speaking) with the bases empty? How many wins does that net them? And that’s assuming the pitching keeps this up.
Or let’s pretend instead of hitting 60 for 300 with RISP they were hitting .300. That would be another 30 hits or so. Let’s be generous and assume all those hits would have resulted in 30 additional runs. (To put that in perspective, that would give the Jays the 3rd best offense in the AL behind only Boston and Detroit.) Using Bill James’ handy pythagoras formula, that would put the Jays at something like 22-16.
Let’s assume nothing else changes for the 17-21 Jays except they reverse this “bad luck” play like that 22-17 (.574 winning percentage) team over the rest of the season and win 71 more games. Is 88 wins enough to compete in the AL? That wasn’t enough for Detroit to make the playoffs last year, or nearly enough for the 87 win Jays in 2006. And 88 wins seems among the more optimistic upsides for Toronto–especially with Wells missing several months of playing time.
I don’t know, Mike. Yes, a lot of things will need to go right for any of Oakland, Tampa, and Chicago to be legit contenders. But no more so than for Toronto, and those other clubs already have nice little head starts.
MW: I think more has to go right for those other teams, and they’ll all go through at least a 17-21 stretch, guaranteed (take that to the bank, if you want). 88-90 wins may well be enough this year, given how everyone has gotten out of the gate.
- MichaelHi Mike. Sorry if I’m off-topic, but I’ve always wanted to ask you this: Do you think the ’94 Expos would have won the World Series? (I’m still in mourning…)
MW: No, I don’t. It makes things easier that way.
- TerryHi Mike,
I’m not the biggest John Gibbons fan, but you can’t blame every single woe on Gibbons. Now, every time I listen to your show I feel bad for the guy because everyone says ” Blah Blah Blah, Gibbons can’t get the guys to hit” Has anyone thought that John Gibbons isn’t the one batting? How come if John Gibbons is unfairly responsible for the batting woes, why isn’t he getting credit for the good pitching? I mean all the fans think “He can’t motivate the team” are just ridiculous. If you’re going to blame him for the hitting then you have to give him credit for the pitching. I don’t agree with that, but if you blame gibbons for the hitting then you give him credit for pitching. The team will break out of this funk eventually. And whats up with everyone ripping Shannon Stewart? He doesn’t deserve it.
MW: Most of the Gibbons-haters believe the pitching is succeeding in spite of him, but the hitting is failing because of him. It’s a strange world they live in.
- WarrenI think you threw that “Gillick left the Jays in bad shape” comment out way too fast. In no way did he leave them in bad shape. The problem was Gord Ash was an absolutely horrible GM. (Olerud trade, David Cone trade, Orlando Merced trade, Hanson signing, Joey Hamilton trade, Mike Young trade, etc). There is no need for you to diminish what Gillick did here for no reason. He left a pretty loaded system (Delgado, Green, Stewart, Hentgen, etc) and really, the downfall of the ’90′s Jays had everything to do with Duane Ward and Dave Steib injuries, not resigning Alomar and the Olerud/Cone trades. (releasing Wells and Derek Bell didn’t help) That is a lot of talent that was lost with close to zero return. Anyway, compared to Gillick obviously JP does not come close, but compared to Ash, JP is miles ahead.
- MarkHaving listened to your post-game show for a couple of seasons, I have come to the conclusion that you have a real talent for turning chicken crap into chicken salad. You attempt to dazzle your listeners with all the stats and the “facts”, but the bottom line is The Jays are an average team (at best). And God help them if their pitching staff starts to slide as in McGowan’s performance yesterday.
Riccardi is now working with a payroll of almost twice what he started with seven years ago and they still don’t have a team that can contend (despite your arguements to the contrary). But at least now J.P. will be able to resurrect the injury excuse as to why they are having a lousy season. If that is enough to save his job as far as senior management is concerned,then they deserve what they get!!
People question why there aren’t more fans at the games. Maybe it’s because they are tired of paying good money for lousy baseball and until that changes, they won’t come out. Most Toronto fans operate on the adage..”we are with you win or draw” so maybe a winning record would help.
And while I’m venting, why do you find it necessary to take what I consider an adversarial role with many of your callers. I always thought that call-in shows were intended to generate discussion between the caller and the host but you seem inclined to challenge many of your callers on the points they are trying to make. Please lighten up,Mike, it’s suppose to be a discussion, not The Great Debate.
Having said all this, I probably will continue to listen to the post-game show as I want to be there when you finally admit that The Jays are “done like breakfast” for another season. Like you, I am sure that the hitting will improve but when and by how much are the big questions. Maybe it’s time for The Jays to follow the Maple Leaf’s lead and have a good old fashioned “house cleaning” since changing a few players every year sure isn’t getting the job done!!
MW: Yeah, because that’s worked with the Leafs. I challenge callers on the points they’re trying to make because, well, why shouldn’t someone have to defend his point? A lot of people present opinion as fact, and that’s simply not the case. If you’re going to call and say John Gibbons needs to be fired, I’m going to make you tell me why you think so. I’m sorry that I use facts and stats to back up my opinions.
- Ken GrubbeI’m surrounded by Cardinals fans here in university, and they want some of the Jays relief pitching. They have their typical, healthy OF-platoon situation going on with La Russa, and Chris Duncan might be available on the cheap. Whaddya think?
MW: I’d do Tallet or Downs for Duncan, no problem. That kid can hit.
- AriGreat points, Mike.
The people who call in almost always end up making themselves look like idiots. A lot of contenders have struggled out of the gate and the Jays are no exception. There are over 120+ games left and we WILL contend and if not, then expect to see the changes that everyone seems to be pining for. We don’t have to make these decisions until the trade deadline anyways.
Go Jays!
- Matt SI know second post on this blog – can’t help it after reading the negative comments.
Yikes – take it easy guys – the season is young (so is half of our team) so lots to look forward to not just this year but for sure many down the road.
As with most things in life – we don’t know just what we have until it’s gone!
Lets be more appreciative of the fact we have MLB in Toronto – sure we all want to win but beating up JP or Gibby so much won’t do it – voice your opinion – great – but keep things in perspective.
Imagine….being an Expos fan!
Imagine….being a Mariners fan -they came into the league with the Jays – how many WSC have they won.
Imagine….if success in MLB is winning a WS – then we have a successful franchise that can only get better!
A little John Lennon for ya Wilner – Imagine!
- BobHey Mike,
Wondering if you knew how it’s gonna work tomorrow with tickets at the game. Do we need to buy for both games or just the one? (I know it’s in Cleveland)
MW: It’s a regulation double-dip, not a day-nighter, so one ticket is good for both games.
- DavidHmmmm……You and I remember the Interbrew years much differently. Interbrew took over Labatts toward the end of 1995 in a hostile takeover after the Canadian dollar fell drastically on the world market. Suddenly, the best franchise in baseball was owned by a European corporation that did not give a flip about baseball, much less know anything about it. The scouting budget was slashed and Epy Guererro was promptly dismissed. The fallout from Guererro’s dismissal led to a lot of hard feelings, particularly between Guererro and Gord Ash as Ash ultimately had to be the one to fire Guererro. In a curious side note, Guererro took a job as the Brewers director of international scouting from 1996 to 2003, where he was run out of Milwaukee by Ash again. Don’t invite those two to the same party.
By 1996, the Blue Jays, who had been the elite franchise in baseball just a couple years before, were now a skid row team. Gone were Pat Borders, Devon White, Roberto Alomar and Al Leiter. They were replaced by retreads like Lance Parrish, Otis Nixon and Erik Hansen. I read an iterview with Pat Gillick about this time where he said that he could not fault Gord’s job performance in the mid 1990′s because given his budgetary restraints he would have made those same moves himself. The club seem to make a comeback when they signed Roger Clemens and paired him with reigning Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen, but Hentgen got hurt and the rest of the club around Clemens turned out to be a bunch of stiffs (save for Carlos Delgado). Then Gord started making one bad decision after another. He wasted whatever money he had to work with on terrible players like Joey Hamilton and Randy Meyers. Clemens orchestrated his way out of town, Tim Johnson was fired for being a chronic liar and the club has meandered in a maze of mediocrity ever since. Interbrew’s final “gift” to all Blue Jay fans was to turn down an offer to buy the club from a group of investors led by one Pat Gillick. The Interbrew brass seemed to think the club was still worth what it was when they took it over and there were two shiny new World Series trophy’s in the trophy case, nevermind they had devalued the club with their absentee ownership. In the end, they had to accept over $50 million less from Rogers Communications than the Gillick group had offered. I have often said the lack of solid Canadian ownership that was locally based did more to hurt the club than anything else.
Okay, so I know you know all of this. For the most part I’m getting my frustration off my chest. Maybe you see things differently than I do. That’s your prerogitive. I suppose that the rest of the fans and I get frustrated by the team seemingly being without a direction, all the while claiming to be on a course that only seems to go in circles. Maybe we are spoiled by the 1983 to 1993 era where the Jays enjoyed tremendous success. Perhaps those days are gone,never to return. I’d hate to think the club could go in to a 40 year stretch of mediocrity like the Indians did. In the end, it always seems like the Blue Jay management reminds me of a blind man in a dark room, looking for a pair of black socks that do not exist.
Sorry about the long post.
MW: It’s OK, you had a lot to get off your chest. Just don’t put too much stock in Gillick saying he’d have done the same things Ash did, he wouldn’t throw his longtime assistant under the bus.
- Jim BranscomeMy issue with the playoff projections being batted around is that not only do the Jays need a dramatic turnaround, but they also need to play better than a bunch of other teams–which could include Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and LAA.
Now, the Jays might play better than some of these teams–although so far they’ve shown little to suggest that this will happen–but are they likely to:
1. Finish first in the AL East, or
2. Finish second in the East but beat out all other wildcard contenders?
It’s possible, but unlikely. At the moment, most of the other teams listed are looking stronger than the Jays–the Bluebirds’ pitching notwithstanding. Especially when you look at each team’s overall strengths and weaknesses, which includes defense, speed, bench, baseball fundamentals, depth in case of injuries, farm strength, and financial resources.
The unbalanced schedule also puts the Jays at a disadvantage–and they’re four games under .500 after playing the softest part of their schedule, which doesn’t bode well.
So, yes, they have a shot. And yes, a 6-1 run would make things look rosier. But I agree with those posters who contend that the odds are against the Jays’ making the playoffs.
MW: Of course the odds are against the Jays making the playoffs, and I don’t believe I ever indicated that they’re a favourite to be in the post-season, but they don’t have to play much better than any of the teams you mentioned besides Oakland and Tampa, and I don’t believe that will be a problem. The fact that they have a lot of teams to climb over doesn’t mean nearly as much with 120 games left as it would with even 40.
Great work on the air and online.
- GeoffLet the slide begin. Gbye Ricciardi. Gbye Johnny.
- JimMike, Kenny Lofton is still available.(I’m sure you know that) Why haven’t the Jays signed him to play left? I know he can’t throw anymore but he hit .296 with an OBP of .367 last year and he can still cover some ground in the outfield. Plus he’s a sparkplug type player, he can make an offense go. Wouldn’t he look really nice at the top of our lineup? His arm is certainly not that much worse than Stewart. It must be a money thing right? Do the Jays have absolutely no money left that they can’t throw a few million at Kenny?
MW: Lofton would look really nice at the top of the line-up, but last I heard he was demanding two years, guaranteed, and no one will do that. Besides, the Jays don’t need a sparkplug, they need a finisher.
- ChrisI sent this e-mail to The Fan and BlueJays.com but I just wanted to spread the word a bit more:
Dear Mike, Jerry, Alan, the entire radio crew, and the entire Blue Jays’ office;
I’ve listened to the Jays’ games on the radio since I was ten-years-old…and I have wonderful memories of Jerry and Tom calling the games….giving great insight, stories of its history, anecdotes about the game and making it fun, interesting and relevant. I’m thirty-seven-years-old now. I wrote a while ago about my dislike of Warren Sawkiw as a Jays radio colour analyst…and I feel bad about the fact that he’s gone…but I love Alan Ashby as Jerry’s partner…you guys respect the game, the players and the fans…and make each other laugh…which in turn makes the fans laugh (or at least smile)…I think Tom would be proud.
But now I must lament Mike Wilner’s call-in radio-show and his confrontational attitude. It seems that every caller is greeted with a condescending “Hello” and subsequently given an immediately confrontational response (unless they are “praising” Mike for his great show). Is it the “Mike Wilner Radio Show”? Or is it the “Blue Jays’ Radio Show”? It seems like it’s the former. People call the show to voice their opinions about their Jays’ to other fans who are listening…not to get a tongue-lashing and to be humiliated by Mike Wilner…they’re not asking for his blessing to rant (even though some do)…they want to let Jays Radio Fans know how they feel….not how Mike WIlner feels about their rants. I think it gives a “glass half-empty” feeling for fans of the struggling Jays when they listen to Mike lament those who call in to voice their frustrations…it just casts a darker shadow on the Jays play (and players) to hear him respond to fans’ comments so negatively.
This might seem petty but it’s a great example of my frustration with Mike Wilner: To make it humiliating for callers he’ll correct their annunciation of words and pronunciation of players’ names…and he’ll make sure he takes a little pause for dramatic affect…and there’s NO need for it…he does it to belittle them…and that is not what a professional does.
And why is Mike so confrontational during “his” radio-show and so agreeable and contrite and loves every player who ever played when he’s broadcasting with Jerry and Alan at the Rogers Centre? Smacks of duplicity me thinks…and gives Mike dwindling credibility in my opinion.
Lastly…Alan, a friend of mine just got back to Toronto from seeing the Astros play at Minute-Maid…he said it was the best ball-park he’s ever seen! I hope to get there one day.
Best regards and I hope Jerry and Alan can keep “Getting Her Done!”
Loyal fan,
Rob
MW: Thanks, Rob. Glad to hear you’re a listener! And it’s “enunciation”, by the way.
- RobWho prayed for rain?
MW: It might not have been a bad idea, all things considered.
- TorgenThe Jays should sign Barry Bonds because all that matters is what you accomplish in life, not how you do it.
MW: That’s not true at all, but the fact that the second part of the statement is wrong doesn’t mean the first part is, too.
- NickIn regards to post #71:
Now wait a second. I think you do a very good job Mike. I love “Jays Talk” when I can catch it (make that engineer turn that internet feed back on after the game, he’s killing me) and I also enjoy the blog. The truth is Mike you’re a very opinionated person and that’s what I like about you. You don’t let people get on the air in a lame attempt to get their 5 minutes of fame. You keep them on topic (as it should be) and you offer an opposing viewpoint (when needed) and there are certain individuals who are too thin skinned to accept the fact they could be wrong or they may not have all the facts to make a competent conclusion.
Yes the club is not playing well, and yes, we all get upset about it, but you are right to point out the season is not over and the bulk of this story has yet to be written. I’ll admit, the current direction is not good and if a turn-around does not come soon the season will be over, but I am a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays and have been for 32 years. I’m not about to quit now. I was there in the good times and God willing, I’ll be there when they win again (I believe). Keep doing what you’re doing Mike. Heck, at the rate things are going, you might be the next GM. Just be sure to do a Wednesday night call-in show if that ever happens.
Oh yeah, it’s “effect”, not “affect”.
MW: Yeah, it is. I didn’t want to be too harsh. Didn’t want him not to like me or anything.
- Jim BranscomeMike,
One of the symptoms of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
You have been saying for the past year that the Jays’ hitters have “track records” and eventually they will begin to hit.
Maybe. But how long do we have to wait before we decide the current gang won’t get it done and that it’s time to shake things up?
I think that time is very quickly approaching. As Yogo used to say, “It’s getting late awful early.” Sure, the Jays are right there in the playoff mix right now, and myabe they’ll stay in the mix. But they sure aren’t giving us any indications that they can play the kind of consistent, winning baseball they will need to do so and to contend in ’08.
MW: They sure aren’t, but they’ve already made a myriad of changes.
- Ken C. in KIngstonTouché, Mike…and that was a great come-back (for real). Can you forward my previous e-mail to Jerry and Alan? They’re e-mail addresses are hard to find.
MW: I don’t know, it was pretty mean.
- RobOoooops…I meant “their”…have to be careful with you.
- RobWell, Mike…you call it mean but I call it Truth. And, yes, Truth is hard to take.
I’m not saying your show is without merit…it has merit to certain people…not me…not to kids as far as I know…but certain people.
I like to gauge all aspects of Sport enjoyability (including radio shows) on youth…and (as such) I ask myself this question: Would I ever let my son or daughter call your show with a question if they wanted to? No. No because you’re dismissive and confrontational and have your mind made up before the question is even articulated…and you lack tact.
I guess the question is about you and your show. Is your show for die-hards, non-die-hards or kids? It’s definitely only for die-hards right now…why not loosen-up a bit and give the kids a chance to speak their minds without fear of your gloomy and angry look at all questions?
Remember, Mike…no question is a stupid question!
Rob
MW: I couldn’t agree with you more on the last point, there are no stupid questions. And I don’t think I treat any question like a stupid question, except maybe “is it time to panic?” or “when should we start to panic?”. Those questions are just silly. I’m a big fan of kids, but my show usually starts around 10:15 pm, when kids should be in bed. Weekends are an exception, it’s true, but I don’t gear my show towards kids, nor do I believe I should. I don’t think it’s just for die-hards, either, judging from the calls I get. You’re entitled to your opinion, of course, but I’m happy that the vast majority of the feedback I get is positive.
- RobI meant that there is no such thing as a stupid question! You’re helping me with my grammar and tenses anyway.
MW: I knew what you meant and I answered, even though you think I’m an ass.
- RobMike,
Sure, Tampa, Oakland, and Chicago will all go through rough patches. Like Toronto, they’re all flawed teams.
But it isn’t really clear why you think things have to go more right for them compared to the Jays. If anything, Oakland and Chicago have underperformed their expected W-L to date. Tampa Bay has Kazmir back in the rotation. While the Jays’ task is to reverse their performance with RISP without one of their 3 best hitters until June-July? Maybe I’m misreading the situation, but it seems the Jays are the ones in need of a little luck.
MW: There’s no question that the Jays need more than a little luck, but given how much bad luck they’ve had over almost the whole first quarter of the season, I’m thinking it’ll even out. Oakland and Chicago have indeed underperformed, but so have the Jays.
- MichaelMW: Also, no question it’s Shields over A.J., but Shields/Marcum is a push, and A.J/Jackson is a win for the Jays.
I think your totally right Mike to compare Marcum to Shields as both are changeup artist and it is obvious that Marcum is a far superior pitcher to Edwin Jackson. Unlike Marcum, Jackson is actually a #4.
Marcum has the third lowest WHIP amoung pitchers in the majors: .93 — while Jackson is almost double that. That means that only Cliff Lee and ?Santana? are above Marcum and those two are both undefeated pitchers.
Jackson’s k per 9 is 3 something while Marcum’s is 8.14. Thats top ten in the majors people. If Jackson’s infield fly ball ratio wasn’t %77 for his first few games (league average is 18% in AL) then he wouldn’t even have those two wins he has this year.
Where am i going with this ? The Jays has a rock solid team, with some of the best players in the Majors. People shouldn’t rag on the team because of the slump. It’s okay to get upset, but the season is long and a team this strong will pull through and improve.
It could be worse though, we could be Mariner fans.
- DaveRegarding the reply to #75: “made a myriad of changes,” really Mike. Remember what you always say about word usage. It should be “made myriad changes.” Myriad is akin to many. I’m just being a smart ass, and I’m sure you know better, but that common mistake grates on me a bit. And to the responders, “your” and “you’re” are not the same thing.
Your blog entertains and informs.
MW: Thanks, but you didn’t get me. According to the dictionary, “myriad” can be used as a noun, as well as an adjective. In fact, the nounic definition is the first one listed. Glad to see you’re trying, though!
- GThis Rob disagrees completely with the other Rob. Mike, you are a better man than I, because I wouldn’t have nearly the patience with some of these irrational idiots that you do. I don’t know why everyone gets on your case for being optimistic/realistic. There are enough negative media types out there as it is, and you don’t have to look far to find them. And what is wrong with wanting people with outlandish opinions to back them up with some sort of fact-based argument? Keep up the good work, Mike. Don’t let the lunatic fringe get you down!
MW: I try not to. Right-thinking folk like you help, though.
- Rob_NSI totally listen to JaysTalk to hear Wilner degrade and belittle the callers. That’s the best part!
- Douggame 39 and counting…and yes, it can and is continuing. this IS the worst hitting team with RISP of all time. That is a fact. The teams’ OBP is exactly at their career averages. They simply do not have what it takes save Rolland and Wells. These are the inconvenient truths I have yet to hear you discuss.
MW: The team’s OBP is 5th in the league. There’s nothing to indicate that this will continue towards being the worst RISP-hitting team of all time.
- Jasoni agree w/ #84
MW: OK
- andrew - KWthanks for the response, I hope you are right, but I do not believe in blind faith
MW: No one is asking for blind faith.
- JasonI don’t think you’re an ass, Mike…in fact I think you can be quite funny…and you do offer great insight into baseball. I disagree with your attitude and demeanor when responding to calls, that’s all.
Take last night’s Jays’ Talk show (May 12)…probably the best show I’ve heard since you started…you weren’t combative, confrontational, presumptuous, condescending or smug (you were a little smug but then again you always are and I can let that slide)…your responses were tactful and conversational and you actually let callers finish their comments and questions before responding. I think that that’s what average fans, occasional fans prefer to hear…and it will perhaps encourage more average / occasional fans (and maybe even kids on weekends!)to call with questions and / or comments.
No need to respond to this, Mike…just wanted to get the last word on this thread.
MW: I don’t think I was any different last night than I am any other night. It was the callers.
- RobI ask you to re-listen to this past Sunday’s rain-delay (and eventual postponement) edition of Jays’ Talk and I think you’ll see what I mean. In fact…I ask you to re-listen to pretty much every Jays’ Talk show you’ve done over the past few years…in almost all you’re being belligerent to almost every caller who called in…even when callers’ questions and comments are reasonable.
My point in the previous thread is that last night’s “good” show was a rarity…you set the tone of the show by being light and conversational and fun…most other times you set the tone of combativeness and condescension. (I think I need a thesaurus over here).
And you can’t blame the callers for setting the tone of the show…they can set a theme…but isn’t it your job to maintain the overall tone of the show? And wouldn’t the Blue Jays’ organization rather have a positive, fun, open, insightful tone instead of the opposite of that?
Is Jays’ Talk a Blue Jays’ sanctioned show or it exclusively a Fan 590 show? If it’s exclusively Fan 590 then, okay, more power to you and I’ll stop adding to this thread.
You do get a lot of positive feedback…mostly people saying that the best part of your show is when you belittle and humiliate the callers…but I think that represents a small fraction of the Jays’ fan base…it seems that that small fraction call into your show and provide you this positive feedback. Don’t you think the entire fan-base should be involved in your show? Or at least feel that they could be a part of your show without getting tongue-whipped? I do…but you make it impossible with your attitude.
The past Sunday my mother and I were listening to Jays’ Talk and half-way through the show she asked me: “Who is this belligerent person?”. No my mother doesn’t like baseball…but if she notices the belligerence in your comments…don’t you think everyone can? Even kids who might be listening?
MW: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – rational, reasonable calls are welcome and happily accepted on The JaysTalk. The unreasonable and irrational are welcome, as well, but those callers had best be prepared to defend their position. I hate talk-show hosts who have callers call in with absolute nonsense and just say “uh-huh” and let them continue.
- RobWho’s going to get the last word here, Mike? I’ve got lots of time.
You can ask callers to defend their positions and still keep it light and fun…and you can offer insight into their comments, too, and keep it light and fun…even if you don’t agree with the callers’ comments…that’s why we listen. But the tone of your show is often times “Mike vs. the Fans”…maybe that should be the name.
I guess you don’t think that you’re belligerent and combative in responding to questions or comments…I happen to think that you are…and I guess there’s no way I can convince you that you are and there’s no way you can convince me that you aren’t…unless, of course, the tone of your show changes as per my suggestions noted throughout this thread. Till then I guess we’re just going to have to stay at odds.
MW: Which is fine with me.
- RobMe, too.
- Rob