Only Rios, Wells, and Hill (well, Lind too) are in their 25-30 primes, and over the past three seasons (ie. what should be in the non-Bonds, non-Stairs universe their BEST years) they’ve all had at least one year with an OPS below .750.

There’s a bit of hoping to catch lightening in a bottle in the way JP has constructed this roster. That’s not necessarily a bad thing from a GM that’s been unable to draft much hitting talent and whose ownership is unwilling to go above $100M. But it shouldn’t be a huge surprise when those same guys don’t get it done, either.

Looking at the lineup a part of me hopes that Rogers has been developing some kind of time machine, and JP will transport Wells, Rolen, Overbay, Stewart, and Stairs all back to 2004. (If that’s the case I’ll even take 2004 production from Hill, Rios, and Eckstein for the bottom of the lineup.) Fortunately, it won’t matter either way for Zaun-y.

MW: If you extend the prime to 31, Overbay is in there, too. This isn’t a bunch of old guys. You say “aging”, people think mid-30s or later.

But given these guys are a) aging, b) injury-prone, and/or c) just inconsistent, it may be much to expect even their career averages.

I think I said in the original post that if you squint you can maybe see the 2002 Angels–good defense, lots of starting pitching and a strong bullpen, with a some of very good bats with little dead weight (but also no superstars). My fingers are crossed…

MW: Everyone in the game is aging, and most players are inconsistent. I’ll give you that Rolen and Eckstein are injury-prone, but none of the other hitters are.

A few posts ago (around the Thomas dump and before their mini-hot streak) I characterized the Jays’ lineup as “mediocre”. You bristled, and I amended my comment to “average”.

The very pleasant surprise of watching Rolen hit like it’s 2004 after several years of suckitude, however, has made it clearer what I think I was trying to say.

All the Jays regulars have had very good seasons over the course of their careers. (At some point, I think they were all considered average or above-average bats relative to position.) The problem is that none of them can really be counted upon to produce that way in 2008:

-Rios seems to have all the potential in the world, but every year there’s a reason why he doesn’t reach it and settling instead for “merely very good”.

-Vernon Wells’ upside is .300/.350/.550, but apparently he’s just as likely to hit .260/.330/.470.

-Stewart’s a career .300/.360/.430 hitter, but hasn’t come close to that since his “MVP year” with the Twins.

-Hill was great last year, but the early returns on 2008 remind us that he’s still far from a sure thing.

-Eckstein’s clutchitude is ever dwindling, and his 2004 season is looking more like the anomaly in his career.

-Stairs out-produced his career rates at age 39 last year (something only thought possible of the Bondses of the world), and isn’t likely to continue at age 40. (Just look at Frank Thomas.)

-Overbay’s first year with the Jays was also a career year, and now 31 the odds seem longer that he’ll repeat and find that power stroke.

That leaves Zaun, what, as perhaps the one regular I’d be comfortable meeting or beating his 3-year averages…

All these guys at their best would clearly be a formidable lineup. But while there’s clearly a lot of talent 1-9, there isn’t a lot that you can take to the bank.

This isn’t a case like the Tigers where we still don’t know whether it’s a historically great lineup or just very good. (And clearly the Tigers hitters need to be historically great in order to compete.) There’s a real chance the Jays lineup just isn’t very good at all, and the odds all of of them (or even most of them) finally clicking at the same time looks ever more improbable.

Every fantasy player knows crossing your fingers and hoping all your guys have career years is no way to manager your roto roster if you hope to win.

It’s not about batting orders or firing Gibbons or the hitting coach. This is JP’s problem to fix.

MW: I really don’t think that it’s about all the Jays having career years at the plate. If they all just have their career AVERAGE year, they’ll be fine. But most importantly, they have to start getting hits in the right situations. No matter how average or below-average you think the Jays’ hitters are, you’d have to agree they’re not HORRIBLE, but they’re hitting horribly when they have the chance to drive in runs.

If we can find the room on the 40 man roster, and in case we can’t get Wilkerson (who admittedly has a lot more power upside), I think that it is worth the risk to at least sign him to a minimum or at least non-guaranteed contract (Detroit pays him his 6 million for the year once he clears waivers) and try him out in a ‘platoon’ situation, where he sits against lefties, can come in as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch run, and see if he can get a bit of his mojo back. Worst case scenario we release him if he doesn’t play well. Problem with this is we may be fighting with Florida who are looking at him as a temporary bandaid until Maybin comes up.

Anyways, if not Wilkerson, he’s likely the best we’re going to get.

Unless of course, we trade Snider or Purcey (OR Marcum…eeeep), or sign Shawn Green or Barry Bonds…but I guess that’s not happening… (someone will need to explain that to me someday…its not as if the Jays clubhouse has that ‘winning edge’ right now anyways, how bad could Bonds be?)

MW: I’m with you on Bonds, but it ain’t going to happen. Jones isn’t an altogether bad move, but he can’t hit lefties and doesn’t help with the fact that they need someone to share time with Stairs at DH. He’s no Gary Pettis, though, not close. You’re forgetting just how awesome that guy was with the glove.
And by the way, just since you said “winning edge” - had the Jays been able to score Rios tonight, they’re a .500 team coming off a 6-1 homestand with seven wins in their last eight games. It wasn’t a lack of a “winning edge” that failed them. It was a lack of contact.

Take care.

MW: Why do I have to choose one or the other? No question it’s Carmona over Lee, though.

MW: I don’t foresee the pitchers giving up.

MW: See above.