1:00 AM Eastern
This one’s going to be short and sweet, because I have to get up really early in the morning to run my sim league auction, sorry about that. I’ll let you know who I land tomorrow night, I have a few targets in mind, but might not get any of them.
So the Blue Jays fly out of town at 2:00 AM after a disheartening 12-inning loss, get to their hotel rooms at about 5:00 AM local time (6:00 Toronto time), and then go out and pound the Rangers in the series opener.
The struggling offense managed 13 hits, but only two for extra bases. They made up for it, though, by taking advantage of the suddenly weak-armed Gerald Laird (that was different – good advancing by the Jays, though), and steal four bases, and they watched the Rangers trip all over themselves on the field.
It’s pretty obvious, to anyone who reads or listens to me, that I don’t like the sacrifice bunt. Actually, that might be a little conservative. I detest the sacrifice bunt. But a lot of people have taken that stance to mean that I also don’t like the stolen base, and nothing could be further than the truth. Like the phobic who isn’t afraid of flying, but crashing, I love the stolen base, but I hate the caught stealing. When the opportunity presents itself wherein the odds of a successful steal are greatly in your favour, you have to run, and it’s great to see that the Blue Jays are doing that this season.
Last year, there were dozens of times when the opposition was all but handing Toronto baserunners an extra 90 feet, and they would say “thanks, but no thanks.” The threat of the possibility of the consideration of a stolen base wasn’t even there. Now, all is different. They nabbed four bags tonight, and twice Laird threw the ball past his middle infielders into centre, allowing the runner to advance to third. Another time, on the Coats-Zaun double steal, Laird short-hopped it to second, and the bounce away allowed Zaun to score without a problem. I’m really hoping the Jays keep this up, but that they don’t get overzealous about it like they did in the second game of the season.
Nice to see Vernon Wells do some damage in his hometown, it’s something that hasn’t happened a lot (on the baseball field, at least, I know nothing of his personal life). He hit two absolute ropes tonight – one for the RBI double in the 4th on which Frank Catalanotto almost made a spectacular running catch – and he took advantage of some I-got-it-you-take-it between Ben Broussard and Kazuo Fukumori to pick up a third hit.
Jesse Carlson looked great again. He’s certainly showing the Jays’ brass that he can help them. He’s going back down to AAA in a week, more than likely, but he’s leaving an impression, at least.
People will debate whether the appearance of Scott “SnakeFace” Downs to pick up the save was a vote of non-confidence in Jeremy Accardo. Notwithstanding the fact that if the vote of non-confidence were to pass, the Governor-General would be forced to dissolve the Blue Jays’ bullpen and they’d have to go to Spring Training again, I think it probably was.
Accardo did some great things last season, and some great things the first week of this season, as well, but he seems obviously to have lost either the feel for or his confidence in his splitter, which served him so well in picking up most of his 30 saves last season. Until he’s comfortable bringing that weapon back, he shouldn’t be the automatic option at the end of every game. With a switch-hitter at the plate and two lefties to follow, Downs was the right guy, and thanks to his newly-shaven head and fierce tattoo, he was able to intimidate two batters into getting out, and thereby pick up the save.
This unsettled bullpen situation is likely to only last a week, because B.J. Ryan should be back that soon.
One last thing before I go – if Buck Coats is going to be a reliable defensive replacement for Shannon Stewart or Matt Stairs in the outfield, he’s got to learn to call off his infielders when they’re sprinting back to try to catch a pop-up whether they call it or not, and whether or not they’re former World Series MVPs. The fact that he let Eckstein try to make the catch on Milton Bradley’s pop-up in the 7th is pretty much inexcusable. There was no way Eckstein had a better chance of making the play than Coats, and rookie new guy or otherwise, he has to get the shortstop the Eck out of there and make that catch. Both Stewart and Stairs make that play.
Comments are encouraged, as always, but I probably won’t be able to answer them tomorrow. The auction is going to go from 9:30 AM until I have to leave to get to the radio station for the pre-game. I’ll try to find some time somewhere, though.
31 Responses to “Not Going Deep In The Heart of Texas”
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In the 6th when Zaun stole home, I thought that was really smart baseball by the Jays. Then I thought about it some more and realized that it’s also a HUGE flaw in the game of baseball. Basically, any time a team has runners on 1st and 3rd with a bad hitter at the plate, they should do the double steal. It seems like a win-win; if the catcher throws (bad idea, like today) then the runner on 3rd comes home easily. If the catcher doesn’t throw, it’s an easy steal of 2nd base. The only condition is that it has to be timed well. I’d say that situation presents itself at least 2-3 times per game, so why don’t teams do it all the time?
MW: Because it doesn’t always work, the throw from the catcher can be cut off in front of the bag at second and then fired home to nail the runner, and that’s a huge risk to take, to eliminate that runner from third.
- ShawnMike, I’m concerned. If Scott Downs is so fierce now, won’t BJ Ryan look like a pussycat by comparison when he comes back?
I think BJ is going to need spiked hair, contact lenses that make it look like his eyes are glowing red, and if he can find the time, the ability to breathe fire. That *might* allow him to get a few good strikeouts.
The real question, though – didn’t MLB force Justin Miller to cover up his arm tattoos? Does that mean Scott Downs will soon be forced to wear a ski mask whilst pitching?
Last question – can Buck Coats bunt? I know he’s white, but he’s not short, so I’m horribly confused.
- TylerI’ve now officially heard it all. I almost fell over laughing when the caller last night on Jays talk tried to make the argument that John Macdonald is an inferior fielding shortstop to Derek Jeter and Julio Lugo. I loved it! Did he actually say if Macdonald was faster he wouldn’t have to make all those sensational diving catches and throwing from his knees?! I’m with you Mike; Johnny Mac should be an every day starting shortstop. I remember as a kid (15 to 20 years ago) that a shortstop and second baseman weren’t required to be .280 to .300 hitters as long as they could play exceptional defence. When along the lines did this change?
MW: It started to change when Cal Ripken, Jr. came up, and changed even more when guys like Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Miguel Tejada started playing shortstop.
- RyanMike,
I have to say I kind of sit in the middle on the bunt topic but I had been leaning towards your side.
I sit here tonight watching the west coast games and I’ve seen bunts work successfully on every attempt that I’ve witnessed (its hard flipping between 3 games so I may have missed something). I think we’ve become too accustomed to Blue Jay style (and AL East for that matter) baseball to realize that bunting really can be effective.
I think as Blue Jay fans (and management) we try hard to emulate the Yankees and the Red Sox expecting to score 8 runs a game when in fact the make up of our team (strong rotation, strong bullpen, good defense) is much more suited to the National League style of play.
I think its time for the Jays to develop their own identity in the AL East instead of trying to be followers hoping that the Yankees or Red Sox will have off years. We’re 0-4 so far in 1 run games and while bunting may not work 100% of the time the argument could be made that had we utilized the bunt, the outcome may have been different in at least one of these one run losses if not more.
Unless there is a Barry Bonds signing in the near future there are going to be plenty more one run games and this team needs to start “manufacturing” that extra run. While we were on the winning side tonight it was painful to see runners at 2nd and 3rd with no out yet again only to see them standing there 3 outs later.
I know you are busy but when you have a chance or being a mini celeb like you are, you must have “people” can you tell me the number of one run games the Jays were involved in post all star break last year compared to the Yanks and Sox. W-L records in those games would be an added bonus.
MW: Definitely don’t have the chance to do that now, sorry. But I’ll bet most of the people you saw bunting in those National League games were pitchers.
- Matt“…..that I don’t like the sacrifice bunt. Actually, that might be a little conservative. I detest the sacrifice bunt. But a lot of people have taken that stance to mean that I also don’t like the stolen base, and nothing could be further than the truth. Like the phobic who isn’t afraid of flying, but crashing, I love the stolen base, but I hate the caught stealing. When the opportunity presents itself wherein the odds of a successful steal are greatly in your favour, you have to run, and it’s great to see that the Blue Jays are doing that this season.”
Mike, you hate caught steals but are willing, no scratch that, insist on it in favourable situations. So how is that any different from sac bunts. The sac bunt shouldn’t be looked upon as giving up an out. Both the sac bunt and a SUCCESSFUL stolen base is to position yourself for a better opportunity to score a run. The stolen base forces the defensive to make a play as does the bunt. As you said on the radio, not everyone is cut out for a bunt and I agree, however in a situation where you have a weak hitter but decent bunter you have to do it.
An even more compelling argument is if there is a man on second with no outs. You know as well as anyone who watches baseball even the slightest bit, that getting that runner to third presents a vastly superior opportunity to score. Again, if the situation presents itself you bunt the runner over. These are calculated chances you have to take.
The odds of getting the runner over to third and excepting 1 out to allow for a sac fly opportunity far outweighs trying to have a mediocre base stealer attempt to swipe third on his own. The bunt in this all but gurantees an out but at least you have a man on 3rd. Whereas an attempt to steal 3rd and getting thrown out leads to a 1 out none on situation. Either way you force the defense to make tough plays but I’ll take my chances with the bunt in such a situation on any given day.
MW: Let me clear one thing up – I NEVER insist on the caught stealing. I just wanted to make sure you meant what I think you meant. The active phrase in your comment is “when the situation presents itself”, which you had earlier explained to mean when you have a weak hitter but a decent bunter. The Jays don’t have any hitters who are so weak that I’d rather they just give themselves up to move a runner instead of trying to move them along with a base hit, walk or productive out.
I don’t understand that notion that the sac bunt and the stolen base are the same thing, even the stolen base attempt. With one, you’re hoping to improve your position by 90 feet at no cost. With the other, you’re hoping to improve your position by 90 feet at the expense of an out.
- kelvinHi Mike, good performence by the jays in the first game against Texas this year. I have to say that I really like Carlson, since his two times he’s pitched have been flawless. , Therefore, I think he definitely is going to be a good possible call up when they need him. Something I’ve never understood is when a baserunner just takes a base on Indifference,like what happened in the 9th inning? Could you explain exactly what indifference is? As far as the comments about Eckstein, like you said in your response to one of the comments, the season is just starting. However like Thomas, is Eckstein known for having a slower start to the season at the plate? I definitely agree with starting Johny Mac against left handed pitching. Gibby definitely has to give Mac some starts at short, considering how he was defensively last year. And if they want Eckstein’s bat in there when Mac’s at short, , why not DH him, and sit Thomas? Just thought i’d put my thoughts in here, since the lines are usually jammed and can’t get through to ya. Totally love the blog, it’s awesome. And having a podcast for JaysTalk, very, very good idea. Hope that’ll eventually happen. You, jerry and Alan keep up the good work, always love the broadcasts, rely on them totally since I’m totally blind here.
I’d like to hear Alan call at least one more inning than he does, since I love his style over the last year, and into this year, and also his insite into the game. maybe he could take the 8th as well? I know Jerry took both the 7th and 8th when the late Tom Cheek was still active in Jay’s broadcasts.
MW: First of all, there has yet to emerge the situation in baseball in which an ambulatory Frank Thomas should ever lose an at-bat to David Eckstein. As far as indifference goes, that’s pretty much it – the runner advances a base because the defense doesn’t care, they’re indifferent towards him. So as opposed to awarding a stolen base, which implies that there’s a need to steal, they call it “defensive indifference.”
- DanOf course, Coats was sent down for Joe Inglett after the game, so the point is a little moot.
- TorgenJim Lang weighs in on bunting and is shredded on firejoemorgan.com. LOL
http://www2.sportsnet.ca/blogs/jim_lang/2008/04/11/no_reason_to_celebrate/
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/
I sometimes think that a very small minority of baseball fans, announcers, newspaper columnists, etc. really have a clue about what constitutes playing winning baseball.
And Moneyball wasn’t about OBP and not bunting. It was about finding inequities in the system to be able to compete against teams spending much more money.
- GregJPGreat work as always, Mike. Just wondering if you think that Joe Inglett will now serve as a platoon with Marco Scutaro considering that Scutaro has been struggled the first 10 games and Inglett has been tearing up AAA. Thanks!
MW: Maybe not a strict platoon, but yes, Inglett will get a lot of work.
- RenegadeMike, you said you players bunting for a base hit. Why do you like guys doing that?
MW: Because it’s a great way to get yourself on base.
- andrewHi, Mike:
A quick “scoring” question — in the 7th inning last night, Scutaro popped a single into (I believe) left-center, on which Stairs scored from second. According to the broadcast, Hamilton “bobbled” the ball, allowing Zaun to reach third and Scutaro to advance to second. There was no mention of a throw home or to third.
Later during the game, Jerry and Alan mentioned that the Rangers’ “fourth error” seemed to be missing, and according to the official box this morning there is no error on Hamilton, nor is Scutaro credited with a double.
Thus I am left with the question “how did Zaun and Scutaro pick up their extra bases?”
If you haven’t already, could you please check with the official scorer and find out what he ruled on this play?
Thanks
MW: It’s a good question, but since I’m not in Texas, I can’t ask the official scorer. The word on the official website, though, is Scutaro and Zaun advanced on the throw. I think there was one, but it was late. That’s a little hometown scoring there to save Hamilton an error.
- NormMike,
Do you think the good start for Vernon is attributed to the shoulder surgery or the new hitting coach?
MW: I think it’s attributable to the fact that Vernon Wells is a good hitter, but I guess if I had to choose between the two options, I’ll take the shoulder surgery, since I believe a great many of his struggles last year were because he wasn’t healthy.
- JamieFire Joe Morgan
agrees with you about bunting Wilner. Bunting: useful in certain limited situations depending on what you need to happen but definately not the saviour of a baseball team.
MW: They’re a smart bunch.
- omurchuCoates shouldn’t be here, it should be Lind, particulary with both Stairs and Stewart struggling. Lind should be here playing with both Stairs and Stewart on the bench.
The way Lind’s started off in Syracuse proves he’s over the swing problem he had last year. The guy’s tearing it up down there and in the meantime Stairs is below the mendosa line and Stewart’s not far away from it.
Both Diaz and Lind are in the top 5 in BA in AAA (.409 and .424). They should both be called up.
I do realize we’re only 10 games into the season, BUT, I don’t expect Boston to keep playing the way they are and right now; we need to make hay while the sun shines.
Not sure if BJ Ryan is ready quite yet. He had a forgetable outing last night in Dunedin in which he walked 1, balked,then gave up a hit for a run and blew the save and the game.
MW: 10 games in. 10 games in. 10 games in.
- GerryForgive me Mike as my knowledge on this specific individual is limited at best.
Joe Inglett.
If memory serves me correct here’s somwhere between 27-29 in age and has had about 200 AB for one season in the majors.
What’s the deal on him? Good fielder , good hitter?
There has to be something about him that has stopped him from staying up at the bigs for a while.
He was tearing it up down in syracuse and am i wrong in assuming he may be a suitable leadoff hitter when he plays?
Also: Why send Coats down and bring Inglett up… Seems like another j-mac type player.
Thanks a lot,
MW: Inglett is a solid fielder, decent hitter, nothing terribly special. He’s not the guy to lead off. Coats goes down for Inglett so that Scutaro could get a breather or two at third base with a left-handed batter being the substitute.
- ChrisMike, a couple of things.
1) I hate the idea of bunting for outs, it just seems that it’s a managers way of playing not to lose instead of playing to win. I would always want to play for the big inning, not for one run, so I agree with you on that subject.
2) I just read from the Toronto Star that Buck Coats was sent down for Joe Inglett.
I really don’t understand this move. I liked what Coats brought to the table in terms of being a defensive replacement in the late innings, and with his speed on the basepaths.
We already have a serviceable backup in the infield in Johnny Mac, you can even argue that he should start. Maybe Rolen’s hand is worse off than the 4-6 weeks that was forecast by JP or whoever came up with that timeframe.
3) I see alot of Pat Hentgen in Shaun Marcum. Do you see that comparison?
MW: See above for why I think Inglett is here. I see a lot of Hentgen in Marcum in his demeanour on the mound, for sure.
- MarkCan you check when Dustin McGowan, shawn marcum and Jesse Litsch are going to become free agents?
MW: Marcum and McGowan will be eligible for free agency after 2012, Litsch after 2013.
- mattHi Mike, do you know of any particular reason Frank Thomas had the night off, or was it just a break for him? Thanks!
Mike M
MW: Just a night off, nothing more.
- Mike Mi was wondering in you knew why jerry and alan take turns calling the game every couple of innings?
i think that’s lame
MW: Then you must think every radio broadcast in MLB is lame, except for the Yankees’. I think it’s nice to have a different voice every once in a while.
- Jim StuldryerWho do you going to make the hall of fame next year?” Im thinking rickey henderson and jim rice are going to make it but I heard that you do not think jim rice is not a hall of famer. Why don’t you like him as a hall of famer?
MW: I don’t think Jim Rice was good enough for long enough to be a Hall of Famer. It seems like all the arguments that his supporters make are refuted pretty easily by looking at the numbers (which is the only accurate way to tell what actually happened). Rickey Henderson goes in easily, I would love to see Bert Blyleven join him, but I’m beginning to lose hope on that one. Maybe Tim Raines, but probably not yet.
- daveInteresting Stat of the day.
With 8 more plate appearances he will set the record for the most PA’s ever without a scarifice bunt. Killebrew is currently the leader with delgado 3rd. Lot of Ex Jays in the top 40.
Courtesy: Baseball Reference.
- Chrishttp://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/sm6Z
And by he I meant Frank Thomas in my last post.
MW: I was wondering. And it’s a good thing, because there’s no situation in which I would EVER ask Frank Thomas to drop down a sacrifice bunt.
- ChrisHey Mike,
What do you think about Frank Thomas’ start? I know he always starts off pretty slow but how do you explain all of the strike outs? He struck out 4 times the other night against Oakland; something he hasn’t done since his rookie season.
Thanks
MW: I think Thomas is off to one of his best starts of the century, maybe the best. Strikeouts don’t bother me.
- Bryan JacksonMike give me your 3 best players for each team in the minors:
Here’s what i’m thinking.
AAA Syracuse:
1) Lind
2) Diaz
3) Davis Romero
AA New Hampshire
1) Jerolman
2) Ricky Romero
3) Scott Campbell???
A Dunedin
1) Snider
2) Arencibia
3) Brett Cecil
A Lansing
1) Ahrens
2) Jackson
3) Tolisano / Chavez / Magnuson
MW: Good question, I haven’t seen all of those guys play, so I’m reluctant to make big proclamations. I’ll really have to think on that.
- ChrisI was wondering if the Jays will keep Carlson once BJ gets back. It makes sense to have 3 or 4 lefties in the pen in a division with an abundance of left handed hitters.
MW: I don’t think it makes sense to keep four lefties, unless you don’t think you have enough good righties. It depends on how much confidence John Gibbons has in Brandon League, and I don’t think he has much.
- Kirsten CMichael, again, the game is over — apparently a fine performance by the Doc — and those of us Jays’ fans out of market, who’d like to listen to JaysTalk online are stuck with some boring rerun from earlier in the day. I know you don’t personally have control over this, but maybe some one should be reminded that while many of your sponsors are strictly local, some have national profiles and might not like missing out on an audience anxious to listen.
Mikie
- MikieMike, I was wondering if you had read Jim Lang’s blog on Sportsnet.ca. He seems to disagree with you on the whole sacrifice bunt thing; tough to believe that he would so completely misinterpret the whole Moneyball concept given his many years of covering… oh wait, the Leafs. Fortunately FJM picked it up and pretty much reiterated everything you’ve been saying.
If you wonder where many of your callers get their illogical baseball strategies, perhaps you need look no further than the many hockey analysts cluttering Toronto’s sports scene who are trying their hand at baseball.
- ColinHurry up B.J. Ryan. Accardo is a set up man. Burnett is a complete waste of time and money. The so called No.2 man should be better than a five hundred pitcher. Sean Marcum has surpassed him in reliability already. Stewart and Stairs not good enough defense. They gave away a good every day left fielder. Whats th real story on that? It doesnt make that much sense. Was it money?
MW: I don’t recall the Jays giving away a good every day left fielder.
- JimHi Mike,
When you look at yesterday’s 4 to 1 win. Having Stairs out in the field late in the game with no defensive specialist on the bench its clear The Jays should of kept Johnson. If your going to platoon, like they have, there’s no argument that could be made. Of course you will but your wrong as usual.
MW: My wrong what? And, yes, you’re right – not having a defensive replacement in left field certainly cost the Jays the game.
- brunoHey Mike.
You work for the fan 590, and the Blue Jays which is owned by Rogers which also owns sportsnet. What do you think about Jim Lang’s comments. Do you know Jim at all?
They are as follows.
“The more I watch the Jays the more I despise the whole concept of Moneyball. What moron ever came up with the idea that it was bad thing to move a guy over with a sacrifice bunt or to steal a base? Sorry, but I will take Whitey Herzog baseball over Moneyball any time. For example; the Jays are trailing 1-0 in the sixth inning, there’s nobody out and men on first and second. However, thanks to the screwed up concept of “Moneyball,” the Jays go up there swinging away. Lineout, fly out and Vernon Wells caught looking. Thus endeth the inning and a golden opportunity to manufacture a run. Moneyball freaks will call me an idiot for even suggesting that you would bunt someone over to third base with no one out. Now, at this point, the Jays had not scored a run in the previous 14 innings. What have you got to lose by bunting a guy over and setting up an easy sac fly scenario? I have had it with Moneyball; give me good old Whitey Herzog baseball any day.”
- ChrisHi Mike. You must have forgotten Reed Johnson. Thats the kind of guy Id want on my team. Lets agree to disagree on him.Not every? How about three out of four days as opposed to the over the hill guys you would trot out there.
MW: Over the hill? Both Stewart and Stairs had terrific years last year. If they got over the hill this winter, it must not be all that high.
- Jim