1:15AM Eastern
Well, at least I got to see a game that was played at Yankee Stadium, though I’ve done that before. It’s a shame that it was close to a replay of a bunch of games that the Blue Jays played last season: Great pitching, crappy hitting with gusts to awful when it was most important.
There was a lot of good mixed in with the bad, but the standout fact is that the Jays got one hit in 12 at-bats with a runner in scoring position. If they had gotten maybe one more, which would have given them a .167 batting average under those conditions, they might have won the game. Of course, the Jays got one more hit with runners in scoring position than the Yankees did, but the Yankees won.
I’m not going to go nuts about the fact that Vernon Wells went 0-for-4. He worked counts nicely, which is new and exciting and bodes well, but it is troubling that well ahead in the count in his first at-bat, he tried to pull a fastball over the middle of the plate instead of looking to hit it where it was pitched, and pulled it foul. He’d been doing so well going to right-centre in the spring. And that fourth at-bat was ridiculous. To strike out looking on a curveball that started at his chin and was caught by Jorge Posada at Wells’ letters. Gary Darling should be ashamed of himself.
Nor am I going to get upset that Frank Thomas looked completely overmatched by Joba Chamberlain in the 8th. It’s troubling, but he’s been just this bad early in the last two seasons, and has rebounded to have very good years each time. Now, if he still looks this bad in two weeks, it’s time to take him out of such an important position in the line-up.
The good things about this game include the fact that the Jays scored all the runners who made it to third with less than two outs (one of the bad things is there were only two). Also, the Jays stole three bases and the Yankees failed in their one attempt. As well, this was a game that the Yankees needed breaks in to win, and not just those provided by the home plate umpire. They needed a 315-foot homerun, which is an out in any other ballpark in the majors, and they needed both David Eckstein and Aaron Hill to mess up on defense in the 7th inning. It’s a good thing when it’s the Yankees who need the Jays to screw up in order to win, as opposed to it being the other way around.
One thing I wanted to touch on before I go was tonight’s JaysTalk. It was especially raucous, and I’m not quite sure why. Good radio, though, I thought. I certainly didn’t go on intending to get into a couple of big arguments (but you know you can always get me going when you talk about how bunting in an incredibly wrong situation is a good idea), nor did I plan to quote John Lennon. I wasn’t sure how things were going to go, though I knew there would be alarm bells ringing if the Jays lost, and there were.
I went and did some research, by the way, and I found the resulting runs for every base situation in every major-league game played over a four-year period (1999-2002). This stuff is relatively easy to find when you look on the internet, which I understand is on computers now.
So, here we go: With a runner on second and none out - 1.189 runs. With a runner on third and one out - 0.983 runs. So even if your ill-advised “tie-game-in-the-7th” bunt is executed perfectly, moving the runner at the cost of an out, you have REDUCED the expectancy to score in that inning. Put that in your proverbial pipe and smoke it.
I know there are a lot of people who love to see bunts and who love to see runners trying to steal and guys hitting and running. I’m a big fan of the hit and run (providing the ball is hit), but my mind isn’t going to be changed on the other stuff, and the numbers (otherwise known as the facts) bear me out. A bunt in the American League is only a good idea in very specific, very rare situations. Stealing a base is a great thing, getting thrown out not so much, so you have to balance the two and only run when you have a very high percentage chance of being safe.
I should note that bunting for a hit is a good thing. I love that and I wish guys would do it more often.
Also - strikeouts are just outs. Same as a fly ball to medium-depth left field (unless there’s a runner on third). If a guy gets on base 38% of the time and strikes out 250 times, that’s fine by me.
Comments are encouraged, especially since there may be no JaysTalk after Wednesday’s game because of the Raptors conflict. Those of you in Toronto can hear the Jay game on 610CKTB.
Mike,
Really great to be listening to Blue Jays baseball on the FAN again…it was a long winter!
Its only been one game…if Vernon is hitless two weeks from now, and Hill has bobbled every ball hit towards him, we can start to panic :)
On the plus side, I thought I was listening to the wrong game when the Blue Jays, a) stole a coupe of bases, and b) caught a runner stealing! I’m not a huge stolen base proponent, but I do think that the Jays could stand to utilize the running game a bit more than last year.
Also, I was glad to see that Scott Downs is going to pick up right where he left off…terrific job cleaning up after Wells’ ill-advised dive.
Scutaro looked good too. I thought he was a great pick-up in the fall; a really great guy to have on the bench, and I’m confident he’ll fill Rolen’s shoes adequately for the next little while.
And Halladay. Well, what do you say? We’re all privileged to be watching him. I especially loved his reaction after the Cabrera home run…
Great broadcast as usual; and fun (if quite raucous, you’re right) JaysTalk! Looking forward to 161 (or, gasp, more!) games.
- PeterHey Mike,
Despite the loss, I thought tonight was an OK game for the Jays. It could have very easily gone either way, and I liked what I saw in general.
Considering they’ve got the Yankees and the Red Sox to begin the year, what do you think would be a reasonable start? I’m thinking if they start the season 3 - 3, that’d be pretty decent, all things considered.
MW: Nothing wrong with 3-3 against these teams. I know people want long winning streaks and big 12-2 runs, but all they need to do to make the playoffs is just win three out of every five.
- JamesHey Mike I tried to listen to Jays talk after the game but I keep getting an annoying message saying that the game is still on and I couldn’t get through. How soon can you get the radio back on your web site after the game is over? I just want to listen to Jays talk!
MW: Thanks! I’m not sure if the post-game show is covered as part of the mlb audio thing or not, but I’ll try to find out.
- Matt from BCHey Mike,
It’s good to finally see some Jays action again. Even though they lost the game the team seemed to have a more patient approach at the plate which I think will do them well for the long-haul. That was the number #1 pitching matchup, i’m interested to see the next four because thats where the depth should help the Jays excell.
I’m probably wrong about this but I think your numbers for situational scoring might take into consideration the people who get moved over to 3rd then score…so the extra .200 is just because some people just get driven in from second…I also dont think that with a runner at 2nd and 0 out, batters in MLB hit .333 which is what it would take to have a 1.000 mark
MW: They absolutely take into consideration everything that happens after that situation. Whether the run scores on a hit, on two groundouts, on three walks, whatever, but the situation begins with a runner on second and nobody out.
- Todd TI am the complete opposite of a bunt fan, but run expectancy isn’t a solid argument against not sacrificing in last night’s situation. What those numbers say is that bunting the runner to third (and in pretty much every other situation as well) reduces the average number of runs that will score from that point on in the inning.
But nobody is arguing that a bunt would have scored MORE runs in the inning, rather that it was time to try and score (at least) ONE run - even if it does lower the overall average. And successfully bunting the runner to third will indeed increase the chance of scoring a single run (the % rises from 62.5 to 66.6% according to Baseball Between the Numbers).
That still doesn’t mean it should be a no-brainer, but you have to wade into a way more complicated statistical argument of win expectancy and whether the 7th inning is too soon given the run environment. Expectancy only works to show why bunting is a really bad idea when the game isn’t that late and close.
MW: I gotta check out Baseball Between the Numbers. But I still don’t think that the 7th inning on the road is late enough, even in a tie game. Also, there’s way more than a 4.1% chance of the bunt attempt not being successful - it’s probably closer to 40%, so in my mind, that would outweigh the gain made. But thanks for looking it up!
- Jonathan HaleMike how bad was the call the home plate umpire punched out overbay on in the ninth, the pitch looked atleast six inchs off the outside corner.
MW: Not as bad as the strike three call on Wells in the 8th.
- Dan M.Different scene, but same movie; can’t hit with runners in scoring position and can’t win on the road. Nice outing from Halliday is spoiled.
So why does Gibbons have Wells batting 4th? If Epstein keeps going 0 for 4 in the lead off role, they’re gonna wish they hadn’t dumped Johnson.
MW: Yeah, because Reed Johnson’s 0-for-4s are way more fun to watch than Eckstein’s. No, wait a minute, they’re both scrappy and gritty and hustle all the time, so they’re equally fun to watch. I guarantee you that Eckstein will outhit Reed by a wide margin against right-handed pitching this year, and Eckstein isn’t even that good. I love that you only comment when the Jays lose a game, by the way.
By the way, there was an easy Horshack joke to be made here, and I apologize to those of you who were looking forward to it.
- gerryMike, I called last night and I made the comment that ideally I would like to see Stairs and Thomas platoon and Lind and Stewart platoon. I didn’t hear your reponse. Can you repeat here? Thanks.
MW: Yeah, sorry you got dumped so early, that shouldn’t have happened. My response was that I think there are a lot of expectations on Lind that he hasn’t earned yet. Last year was an off-year for him in the minors, and in the big leagues he was awful (.238 avg., .278 obp), so I don’t really think having him in the line-up over Thomas is an upgrade.
- Chris JonesAlso, in The Star it was reported that before last night’s game Gibbons said that Stairs was available to pinch hit and he would probably start tonight. So, why wasn’t he pinch hitting in the ninth last night?
MW: You’d rather have righties than lefties against Rivera, believe it or not, but I’m not sold on the health of Stairs yet. The only reason not to use him there was to protect a potential DL stint, so I have to think that’s still a concern.
- Chris JonesMike,
Although I find the stats regarding bunts interesting, I still feel that you have to look at each situation individually. In some games you should definitely “hit away”, but in a game like last night I think the bunt should have been put on.
MW: You’re entitled to your opinion, but remember these: 1 - bunts don’t always work (that’s the biggest thing to remember), 2 - you would be setting up a runner on third, one out situation for your two worst hitters if the bunt was successful, 3 - Scutaro was about three inches away from an RBI double, 4 - it was the 7th inning of a tie game. It’s a losing strategy, and if Giambi doesn’t get Scutaro’s line drive, not one person would have suggested that it would have been the right thing to do.
- JMHi, Mike
Thanks for the above stats on the bunting situation — I had suspected something along those lines, but had not seen the “facts” before.
On another subject, whatever happened to the Cabrera/Duncan suspensions? I had thought the Jays might have a bit of an advantage with them being “out” for the opening series, but instead Melky “steals” the game. Nuts!!!
MW: In baseball, you get to appeal suspensions, and they don’t take effect until such time as the Commissioner’s Office decides to talk to you about it. Ridiculous, but so many things that MLB does are.
- NormMike,
Ok, so if you have a runner on second, with none out you will score 1.189 runs. (as per the numbers of course) Now, if you bunted in that situation, the 1.189 run/inn. stat would still apply to this situation, because that’s how you started the inning, correct? I think baseball is a game on momentum, and if your team or your opposing team watches basic baseball executed to a tee, then the other guys in the line-up are easier to follow suit. It is tough to explain what I am trying to say by writing it, but I think it makes sense. Thoughts?
MW: I think I get what you’re trying to say, but I don’t buy it. It’s not like a guy getting a good bunt down (and you’re assuming it would have been good) would have gotten Zaun so excited that he would have gone up and hit a sac fly.
The 1.189 run per inning stat would no longer apply, because you’re intentionally turning the situation into a runner on 3rd/1 out (assuming you haven’t turned it into a runner on 2nd/1 out or runner on 1st/1 out), therefore giving away all the chances that your bunter had to be the guy who scores the runner from second.
- ChrisMike,
Good blog this morning, but I have to say I disagree with you about the 7th inning. I was watching the game and I for sure thought that marco was going to bunt hill over to third.
First of all there is the non-stat side of things:
1. Your late in the game, it’s tied and you have your ace on the hill.
2. Marco is a capable bunter. It’s not exactly Frank thomas at the plate.
Since you threw out stats in your blog here is what you didn’t consider.
The stat you gave was the average number of runs scored from that scenario. Just because on average you score more runs from that scenario doesn’t say anything about the chance (percentage) that you score a SINGLE run that inning. The reason I’d imagine that no out with a runner on second has a higher average run rate is because you have extra out for someone to come and blast one out of the park.
In a late game scenario where the game is tight you should be looking at the chance to score a run rather then the average runs scored from each scenario.
Here are the stats to back it up:
Chance of scoring ATLEAST one run, from each base/out state:
0 outs 1 out 2 outs
1B .38 .25 .12
2B .61 .41 .21
3B .86 .68 .29
Source: http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html
With a runner on 3rd with 1 out you have a 68% chance of scoring. Where as it’s 61% with someone on 2B and 0 outs. I think thats a much better indication then average runs scored.
Damn, I should the award for the longest comment ever. I hope that made sense.
-Ak
P.S Put that in your proverbial pipe and smoke it.
MW: I already smoked it, and you can see my answer above. How does Marco Scutaro get the reputation as a capable bunter, by the way? Because he’s short and latino and a utility player? He has averaged 4 sac bunts a year in his career, and I’ll wager no one who is reading this has ever seen him try to drop one down. I’m not saying he can’t, I’m just saying a lot of people are making an assumption about something about which they have zero knowledge.
- AKI can’t help but notice that the people who think the team should have bunted in a particular situation only bring this up when the batter didn’t advance the runners when swinging away.
When a batter gets a hit in a potential bunting situation, these people are never heard from.
It all comes down to the usual lame second-guessing that always follows a loss.
- FrankMMike, when did crying become allowed in Baseball? What is up with these ‘know it all fans’ who call in or comment only to take such great offense to your responses? Is it possible that Jays nation are the largest group of softies in sport? I would like to think not. With this said it does make good radio and blogging when people get their panties in a knot.
- KeithKeep up the steller work.
I cringe when I see hitters turning to bunt. The only other situation that you did not mention where I would consider condoning a bunt would be a REALLY bad hitter (like a pitcher, John McDonald, etc) who is probably going to get out anyway trying to advance a runner, and therefore staying out of a double play. But the numbers don’t lie, giving away outs is never a good idea.
- Mike MMike,
Would John MacDonald have helped drive in a run for the 1-for-12 with risp Jays? Maybe not. Would he have saved a run in the 7th inning? Almost certainly. Ask Roy Halladay (secretly) who he would have wanted in the lineup at short. A lot of teams have won championships by playing a player who is below average in some skill, but stellar in others. It seemed the Jays were ready to do that with John Mac when they signed him to two years. Then I think JP saw that the grass was greener on the other side (Eckstein) at short. But now that he’s over there, he’s looking back and thinking the grass back there was pretty green if you tilt your head and look at it the right way.
MW: Yes, John McDonald would have gone 0-for-4 just as nicely as Eckstein did and would have played better defense. But the Blue Jays lost because they didn’t hit, which is why the better offensive player was in the line-up.
- KevinMike, Will Stairs be in the lineup tonight?
MW: I don’t know.
- Dan MI couldn’t agree more with you comments about the questionable call(s) by the umpire. It seemed the Yankees got most of the breaks in the game. One less break for them and one more for the Jays and we are probably talking about a Bluejay win.
Keep up the Good work Mike
- DaveAs Earl Weaver once said, “If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.”
Why in the blue hell would you be so obsessed with scoring 1 run in the seventh? Is nobody interested in *winning* games these days?
It’s like a listenership full of Ozzie Guillens, except more ridiculous.
Good on you for not letting those callers off the hook, Mike - the last thing we need are people calling in and being told that sort of thinking is the sort of strategy any major league manager would consider.
Sure it was heated, but you were doing a public service.
- TylerIn response to Kevin’s comment about Eckstein’s D;
What did he do wrong defensivly last night? He made a great diving play on what I thought to be a sure single up the middle. The first “double play” ground ball in the 7th inning when he came in front of Hill was NOT a double play ball. They only got the batter out at first by a step as it was. No way they have time to turn 2. And the next ground ball, he had to bare hand Hill’s flip.
Where is the defensive problem?
MW: The defensive problem was not taking the extra step to tag Giambi on the first double play ball in the 7th. Otherwise, he was terrific.
- ChrisOh, and one more thing. The Yankees ALWAYS get calls. Jeter should have been down on strikes in the first, on a pitch that was all over the outside corner. But instead, he ends up on base, because Halladay has to throw the ball over a plate the size of a quarter. This will happen all year, so we might as well get used to it.
- ChrisMike,
From listening to the game on the Fan, I could not see the missed double play from Eckstein. Although he would’nt have made a difference with the bat, would Johnny Mac have made that play??
Finally, People need to chill out abotu this game, the Jays merely lost this game by What I would say a couple of feet. Melky Cabrera saved a couple of runs on Defence and hit a HR that would not have been one in any other ballpark…maybe except for Fenway and that Pesky pole.
As for tonight, I am predicting a game completely opposite of last night..Jays win 12-10!
- Markanother call I thought the home plate ump blew is the 0-2 pitch in the first when he didn’t ring up Jeter.
This is probally really nit picking because the umps have a really tuff job and i know i could do it but that pitch sure as hell looked like strike 3 to me. and Mike i thought the third strike to overbay was worse then the one to wells
- Dan M.Mike, the only issue I have from your post-game comments is when you said that Gibbon hasn’t had a chance to prove himself as a manager. Isn’t this his 6th year? How is that not enough time?
Look at Joe Girardi with Florida. He took a young team that wasn’t expected to do anything and won manager of the year. Gibbons has had 6 years to distinguish himself and hasn’t done that.
MW: Girardi won manager of the year with a worse won-loss record than Gibbons has AVERAGED over his career - it’s a lot easier to manage with horrible expectations, that way a 78-win season makes you look like a genius. What I meant by saying he hasn’t had enough time is - look at the managerial records of guys like Jim Leyland, Terry Francona and others (that I mentioned in a post in December or January) over their first four full seasons. Almost all worse than Gibbons’, and they’re some of the best managers in the game.
- Chris JonesHEY MIKE
IM GONNA START OFF BY SAYING WE AGREE TO DISAGREE,YOUR FAVORITE QUOTE.
I HEARD YOU SAY A MANAGERS JOB IS TO PUT THE BEST NINE GUYS OUT THR.OK BUT THIS TEAM
AND THE OTHER TEAMS UNDER GIBBONS HAS TALENT AND FOR YOUR MANAGER TO COST YOU 8 GAMES THAT I COUNTED IN THE SECOND HALF LAST YEAR,THREE I MIGHT ADD THAT U AGREE WITH MINUS SAY 2-3 CAUSE YOU DONT KNOW WHATS GONNA HAPPEN CANNOT BE PUT UP WITH,ESPECIALLY IN THE AL EAST.examples= BULLPEN BLUNDERS NOT STEALING BAGS(rios,wells) SACRIFICES.THAT BEING I CAN HONESTLY SAY IN THE FIRST HALF I DONT KNOW.MY POINT IS GIBBONS DOES NOT HAVE A HOLD OF THIS TEAM OR ANY OTHER IF HE CONTNUES TO MANAGE IN THE BIGS,AND IT IS MY OPINION THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE OFF SEASON.I WILL ASSUME YOU WOULD ASK ME WHO IS GONNA REPLACE GIBBONS, MY ANSWER TO THAT IS ANY ONE WHO IS AVALABLE BECAUSE YOU CANNOT BE PULLING TEMPER TANTRUMS IN FRONT OF YOUR PLAYERS ON NATIONAL TV (3 times) SAVE IT FOR THE CLUBHOUSE.PLS DO NOT TREAT ME LIKE A BASEBALL DUMBY BECAUSE LIKE YOU I HAVE BEEN A JAYS FAN FOR AS LONG AS I CAN REMEMBER.IVE ALSO PLAYED COMPETIVE FOR TEN YEARS=WE ARE NOT ALL HOCKEY GENIUS NORTH OF THE BORDER.ANYHOW IM INTERESTED TO HEARYOUR COMMENTS TONIGHT AFTER THE GAME IF OU REMEMBER,I WILL BE LISTENING
IF NOT WELL TAKE CARE MIKE AND GEZZ MAN LIGHTEN UP A BIT.
JASON F.
MW: You want ME to lighten up? Quit screaming at me! And you’re completely wrong, by the way.
- jason fmike
explain to people that one game does not make a season.If the jays play to there potential they will win.There are maybe 6 teams in each division that can say that and we are lucky to be one of them.GO JAYS!!!
MW: Good points, but there’s only one division with 6 teams in it. However, it’s true that any one of those 6 teams could win the NL Central.
- marioIf Francona or Girardi is worth about 3 wins by themselves and Gibbons costs us about 3 losses a year that is a 6 game differential which is huge.
Gibbons costs us at least 3 games last year and probaby closer to 6.
MW: It’s VERY doubtful that manager can have that kind of effect on a team. What I want to know is why he doesn’t get more credit for the Jays having won 83 games last season despite all those injuries.
- Chris JonesMike,
Hearing you argue vehemently with fans with whom you disagree is not good radio. In fact, it’s a little embarrassing. I’m not sure you want to emulate talk radio hosts who do nothing but bully callers and abuse their powers (one finger always on the cut-off button, a clearer, louder voice, frequent interruptions) to belittle the people that call in. I recognize that fans and observers will frequently disagree over aspects of a particular game, but it is far more informative and entertaining to hear the kind of intelligent discourse baseball permits. No other sport comes close to providing fodder for good conversation than baseball and by choosing to engage in somewhat infantile arguments, you may be discouraging callers who are better able to articulate their arguments. Simultaneously, you egg on the idiots who want nothing more than to get into shouting matches. I’m not sure if the FAN is encouraging the more argumentative approach, but I hope you will resist it going forward.
MW: I live for intelligent baseball discourse, I just don’t get it often from the people who either choose to call the program or who manage to get through. But I don’t feel as though I bully callers, and I very rarely hang up on people. The callers direct the program, that’s the way it goes.
- BruceHey Mike,
For some reason a prospect I have loved for the last couple of years that I would love to see the Jays go after is Ben Zobrist…. And I believe that by September 2008 he will be Tampa’s Starting Shortstop…
I was wondering if you have any prospects in baseball that for some reason you have high hopes for even though they don’t really appear on BA’s top 100?
MW: I definitely liked what Zobrist did in the minors with the Astros, but a lot of scouty-types didn’t see his skills translating into success in the bigs, and so far it hasn’t. I’m a big Brian Barton fan, the Cards picked him up from Cleveland in the Rule 5 draft - not sure if he was in BA’s top 100, but I doubt it.
- Steve“With a runner on 3rd with 1 out you have a 68% chance of scoring. Where as it’s 61% with someone on 2B and 0 outs.”
I don’t get why someone would gamble to get a increase of %7 of scoring a run, by wagering on the %40 chance that the bunt doesn’t work.
I think people should lighten up, because once people see how awesome Marcum pitches people will see how much potential the Jays have this year.
We barely lost by one run to the Yankees. And they had to get thier offense from the Melkman, not the usual suspects, so, I like what i see.
- DaveAK, your table is the 1974-1990 data. The 1999-2002 data is http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html, and it’s only a 3% difference.
- TorgenMike - I agree with you it’s hard enough to beat the Yankees at YS, yet alone having to also beat the umpire. The Wells called strike in the 9th was sad. What disappoints me is that Gibbons does not come out and let the umpire know he made a bad call. I’m not talkning about Gibby screaming, frothing at the mouth or throwin bats - just come out and let the umpire AND HIS OWN PLAYERS know it’s a brutal call. I think these can come back to help get a call, more importantly it shows direct support for his players.
I recall a play at Fenway last summer when Glaus made a great slide into 2nd to clearly beat the relay from LF. The ump clearly blew the call and called him out and it was the ONE time I can recall ever seeing emotion from Troy. He was pissed ! On the broadcast they cut to a shot of Gibby and he didn’t flinch - he looked like he was miles away, contemplating dinner or something. I thought it was failure to show support for his player…and to let the ump know the Jays care when an obvious bad call is made against them.
I realize it never changes an umpires call but I do think it does not have an effect.
What do you think?
Thanks Mike.
MW: I’m not sure that arguing with an umpire helps to buy a call the next time, but I’m more sure that it wouldn’t help at Yankee Stadium. Had Gibbons gone out to question the strike call on Wells, he would have been immediately ejected, so that’s why he didn’t go out. I don’t know why he didn’t argue the Glaus play you mentioned, but I’m sure he wasn’t contemplating where to go for dinner. Personally, I believe that while arguments with umpires can be fun to watch, they’re pretty infantile and an incredible show of disrespect. In no other sport is a coach/manager allowed to go onto the field of play to yell at an official, and I think the other sports have it right.
- Ian CRelax folks!! Didn’t the Jays face Wang, Joba & Mariano last night?? Both teams had it in tuff. It felt like a playoff game. If they only get two runs off Meche & Co. in K.C. we can panic!
Question: Do you think it is smart to have Overbay hit behind Thomas? It almost cost them a run in the 2nd when most players could of went first to third on Lyle’s line drive. If Overbay is going to hit 40 dbls this season it will be a waste with Big Frank hitting just ahead of him.
MW: Thomas has to hit in front of somebody.
- Justin EdwardsGood point about the 7th inning. I think the odds were better that Marco hits the ball to right field (which he did on a line) to move Hill over than bunting. People get too over the top with one play and one game. Do all these people think the Yanks finish at 162 - 0 and the Jays 0 - 162. Give things two or three weeks then start your complaining. I’ve had enough already. Give your heads a shake! Keep up the good work MW.
- CameronIgnoring for the moment the minute advantage people suggest you might get by bunting, I’d just like to point out that it’s incredibly stupid to play for the tie (as would have been in the case in bunting last night) on the road.
It’s simple common sense. The other team’s always got another set of at-bats once you’re done. Take advantage of your opportunities when you have them and go for the lead. Don’t go wasting outs.
Beyond that, I have to agree with some other posters who said that the strikeout call on Overbay was worse than the one on Wells. The Wells K was bad, and there’s no question it should have been a ball, but if Gary Darling suddenly decided to call the strike zone by the book (which no umpire has done in years), it could have been borderline defensible. The pitch against Overbay was a good six inches outside.
MW: They wouldn’t have been playing for the tie by bunting in the 7th, because it was 2-2 at the time, but the bunt was still the wrong idea, which is why they didn’t do it.
- JustinMike,
Great to have ball back! There are thoughts that if Thomas is a flop this year that the Jays should take a look at bonds. Listen, I don’t even care about the steroids because he’s not the only one, but his attitude is ridiculous and do you think that this is the sort of circus the Jays would be willing to consider?
PS As far as steroids go, I don’t think you can punish the past, but I certainly hope the game is clean now. We don’t need that in sports for them to be entertaining.
Thanks
MW: I don’t care about the circus, he can help them win games, that’s all that matters.
- ScottMike,
Melky’s home run is an out in most major-league parks but thats OK because new parks must be at least 325 down the lines.
Why is the new Yankee Stadium going to have the sane dimensions as the old one? It wouldn’t have anything to do with all those left-handed bats that NY has in its lineup?
MW: Nah, it’s about tradition. It’d be a little silly to tailor the dimensions of your new ballpark to the line-up that you have at the moment.
- PaulI say the Jays should bunt everytime somebody gets on base. We need to “scrap and claw” for all the runs we can.
PS: this team is nothing withoug their offensive sparkplug.
MW: I couldn’t agree with you more.
- TimMike…enjoy your blog. More of a question or perhaps even a plea….looking ahead, and assuming no ppd’s, please tell me that Gibby will throw Wells or somebody at Baltimore in order to match our Top 4 vs Detroit starting April 18th. Doesn’t that make sense?
~Andy
MW: Nope. Never throw a game away.
- Andy BernierI must echo your caller last night looking on the bright side of things, and be glad to take any loss for the jays early in the season, each being one more reason for getting rid of ol’gibby.
Not attempting to bunt the runner over in last night`s game was a poor decision, period, did it cost them the game? NO, but it sure didn’t help. Your expected runs analysis is also poor, as AK shows, you should have been looking at scoring AT LEAST one run (you can look that one up on the interweb too if you like). As for your points to remember, I got 3 of my own: 1) NOTHING ‘always’ works, 2) your two worst hitters now have a BETTER chance of scoring a run, and 3) a better chance of scoring a run in a tie game is a winning strategy, and the smart thing to do.
As a jays fan, I just hope if this situation repeats itself, like say in a playoff berth-clinching game, whoever is managing the team does their job and calls for the bunt attempt.
MW: I would hope that whoever manages the team in the playoffs gets the boot if he bunts in the 7th inning of a tie game on the road.
- Salmike, I like they way you twist the facts to give merit to your point. hill has played in 2.5 seasons not just 2 full ones. and there is this myth that players always improve. actually some regress some plateau. hill’s obp actually dropped significantly last season. and why would roberts not be the answer? you mean his .380 obp is not the answer? his 50 sb’s are not the answer? his 100 runs scored are not the answer? what exactly is not the answer? your right hill is much better in all those categories. and what is with the jays obsession to lock everyone up? if your team is always .500 and you cant score runs why would you want to lock everyone up? so you can suck for the next 5 years? imo, the only keeper on this team is rios because his numbers are worth 10 mil. everyone other position can be upgraded for the money they are paying. you can’t spend 100 mil and have tampa outscore you with their miniscule payroll.
MW: Roberts would be lovely, he’s very good at getting on base against right-handed pitching, but I believe that the Jays have a future star in Hill. Why not upgrade at another position or two instead?
- lesoh and by the way that rios ab against chamberlain was outstanding. he laid off some tough pitches to work that walk. compare that to the big scardy cat thomas who is afraid of every fastball. reminds me of that cartoon where the elephant was afraid of the mouse.
- lesFelt terrible for Roy on the tough hop to Hill in the 7th. They had the play. This happens to him too often, it seems, after sterling performances.
I’m not an A-Rod fan and boo him and his contract whenever he’s at the dish and I’m in the house, but you have to be impressed with those two opposite field drives on fairly tough pitches by Roy. You talked about Wells going to right-centre - hopefully he will watch the game tape of A-Rod. He needs that element in his game to be the big-timer we need him to be.
Although folks are criticising Frank the Tank, Joba knew it was a huge feat to strike him out in the 8th. Loved the fist pump and the intensity (not the result, though). I really thought Frank was going to turn one on him.
Zaun looks focused and ready. I didn’t catch any pre-season stuff on him. Did you have the chance to gauge his attitude about this season? Also, any luck getting J.P.’s cell number yet?
- ToddDo you think Mike Mussina is on the downside of his career since like 5.00 E.R.A last year? Because I can’t believe andy Pettitte is starting in his place. Can you explain that?
MW: Andy Pettitte is starting in his place? I hadn’t heard that one. Pettitte was supposed to be the Yanks’ second starter but his back spasms in the spring pushed him back to this weekend. And I can explain it by saying that Pettitte had a better year than Mussina did. Yes, I believe the Moose is on the downside, and it looks good on him.
- andrewmike, don’t most teams win their home opener anyways? what is the winning % of teams in their home opener? I would guess probably 70%
- lesI want to go back to your 2008 predictions about rookie of the year. You said Evan Longoria is going to win the award. I disagree. I think that Joba Chamberlain gonna win it. He competely memorized the Jays lineup and he made it look easy. He even made Frank Thomas look like a idiot. Can you see him winning the award?
MW: I can see him winning the award, but he’s not going to get a lot of wins, nor is he going to get a lot of saves, despite the photographic memory. That’s why I picked Longoria.
- julianMike,
just curious. When you watch the game on TV are u listening to the TV broadcast or are you tuning into Jerry/Alan? I find the radio broadcast far superior. Should they should move Jerry/Alan to the tv side, like they have done with Chuck Swirsky. I think this will attract a bigger audience
MW: I’m always listening to the radio broadcast.
- TonyMike, knowing that Frank is a slow starter why not drop him down the lineup now instead of waiting the 2 weeks for him to get hot ? If anything, I feel they should leave him in the 6th or 7th hole untill he starts hitting well. Have Stairs bat 5th (if he plays tonight) and move Overbay to 2. Remember: wins in April mean just as much as wins in September, so to wait 2 weeks for Frank to get hot when he has been a slow starter in a few seasons before doesn’t make sense to me.
MW: Because the fact that Thomas has been a slow starter in the past doesn’t mean he’s going to get off to a slow start this year. Let him prove he’s in a slump before everyone assumes he is.
- DilsonIs the yankees grinding out AB’s an organiztional offensive approach or is it up the individuals in the lineup? Why is it so hard for the Jays to emulate the Yankees offensive approach? The Jays would be more successful offensively if their hitters were more patient.
MW: Yes, they would, but the Yankees are blessed with high-obp hitters like Rodriguez, Abreu and Giambi who worked counts and walked a ton well before they ever got to New York, and Johnny Damon has done that a bit, too. When you have all the money in the world, you can get a bunch of guys who are really, really good at the most important skill in the game, and you can also keep the ones you brought up, like Jeter and Posada. It’s not that it’s so hard for the Jays to emulate the Yankees’ offensive approach, it’s that it’s hard for anybody to do it - the Yanks’ team obp last year was at least 21 points higher than every other A.L. team but the Red Sox.
- aviMike,
Your style of baseball is soooo booring. Did you ever play organised baseball. I wonder.
MW: Boring baseball is winning baseball, or have you not noticed how often the Yankees and Red Sox play small ball? And it doesn’t matter whether I ever played organized baseball, my opinion is no more or less valid, but for the record, I did, and for a long time.
- brunothat’s just it mike, which position can the jays upgrade at? the only open positions I see are shortstop and dh, if thomas is waived. you could probably find an easy dh replacement for a lot less salary. I really like the idea of waiving thomas if he sucks, then having stairs dh and use stewart and snider next year in left.
MW: Travis Snider will not be ready for the major leagues next season.
- les