By Mike Wilner
6:15 PM Eastern
So, the Blue Jays leave Florida on a two-game winning streak. How about that?
Dustin McGowan finished off his Grapefruitedness with a terrific outing, save for one inning. If you throw out the 6th (I know you can’t, but bear with me) he threw six innings of one-hit shutout, walking four and striking out four. Dominant, especially since three of those walks came in the 4th, loading the bases with two out, and he then whiffed David Newhan to get out of the jam.
The hiccup in the 6th came with a runner on first and two out. That runner, Darin Erstad, stole second, and was then doubled home by Jose Cruz, Jr., who hit a shot into the right-field corner. Mark Loretta followed with a two-run homer and McGowan didn’t allow another baserunner.
A lot is expected from young Dustin, who before his 2004 Tommy John surgery was expected to one day be 1A to Roy Halladay’s 1. He took a huge stride forward last season, and I agree with the masses who expect him to continue progressing and to be a big part of a big three at the top of the Jays’ rotation. Still, Monday will be his first Opening Day in the majors, just like his teammates Jesse Litsch, Brian Wolfe, Randy Wells and Buck Coats.
Sorry that I couldn’t keep you updated with the live blog, but there was a lot of Scott Rolen audio to cut up, and that kept me busy from the 4th inning until just before the game ended, when I had to go downstairs to talk to McGowan.
Some game highlights:
-Rod Barajas doubled off the left-field wall twice, and though the plays at second were both close, he beat both throws, one with a beautiful slide around David Newhan’s tag.
-Aaron Hill continued his red-hot spring with a double into the left-field corner, and Marty Pevey made the veteran “last Spring game in Florida” move of sending pinch-runner Jacob Butler home from first with two out, even though he was meatcake. Marty knows it’s all about getting off the field at that point.
-The Jays answered immediately after the Astros took the lead in the top of the 6th, with Buck Coats leading off the bottom of the inning with his second homer of the spring. Four batters later, Hector Luna hit a prodigious shot into the trees in left for a three-run homer to give the Jays the lead for good.
-Luna added an RBI double in the 8th off Oscar Villareal – now that the 25-man is set, he’s just whaling on the ball. (wailing? I dunno)
-Scott Downs threw a 1-2-3 8th, helped out by a very nice diving/sliding catch by Coats in shallow centre.
-Jeremy Accardo came out of the bullpen with one on and one out in the 9th, and got out with one pitch – a 5-4-3 double play hit into by Newhan.
That’s it, the Jays leave Florida 11-16, or 0-0 depending on how you choose to look at things.
There were three stories outside the game from today, involving some of the injured Jays. Matt Stairs, who hasn’t appeared in a Grapefruit game since the 23rd because of a sore hip, had four at-bats and played an inning of defense in a minor-league game. Blue Jays’ VP of communications Jay Stenhouse said he was told that Stairs “felt good”. There’s still a chance he won’t be able to go on Opening Day, but it appears to be a slim chance. Thing is, why did he only play one inning of defense? If he was really feeling well, why wouldn’t he have been out there for three or more? Unless one inning was all he needed to pronounce himself fine, there may be a red flag there.
B.J. Ryan threw in the bullpen today, and though he spiked a couple of pitches, Brad Arnsberg said he threw great and felt great. They’ll see how he feels in the morning, but the Jays seem optimistic that he might be able to join the club as early as April 11th, when they start a five-day road swing through Texas and Baltimore. That date is by no means firm, and very much subject to change, we’re told.
Also, we finally got a chance to talk to Scott Rolen about his finger injury. He said that the type of accident he had is something that happens all the time, but most often without such dire consequences. Rolen was doing fielding drills, and thought that he would have to short-hop a low line drive hit by coach Brian Butterfield, but the ball stayed up, and as he was moving his right hand down to secure the ball in his glove, the ball hit him square on the tip of the middle finger. He said it was something that happens to him three or four times a year, but this time the ball tore the skin underneath his fingernail and left the skin hanging down at a 45-degree angle. The pin that was put in his finger wasn’t so much to stabilize the bone as it was to hold his finger together. Sounds pretty gross, and there are pictures circulating around the Jays’ clubhouse which Rolen likened to a “faces of death” sort of thing.
The deal is that the pin stays in until April 7th, and three or four days later, Rolen will be allowed to pick up a bat and try to swing it. If all goes well, he might be able to start throwing a few days later. It’s incredibly optimistic to believe that Rolen could be back within a week of the pin being removed – right now he can’t do anything because the soft cast/brace that goes from his forearm up and around the middle and ring fingers of his right hand – he’s hoping to get that downsized this Monday back in Baltimore. I’m thinking that maybe he makes his way back into the line-up for the Jays series in Kansas City that starts April 25th, but even that might be ambitious. At least it’s not his shoulder, and the rest of his body is just fine. Rolen was swinging the bat really well and playing terrific defense when he went down, we’ll see how long it takes for him to get back into the rhythm once his finger is healthy.
That’s it for the Florida bloggage, hope you enjoyed it all. There’s likely to be a lot less of this once things get going for real on Monday. I’ll continue to answer the comments, that’s a lot of fun – almost like a mini-JaysTalk – and Saturday I’ll likely put up a season predictions post.
We’re on the air on Saturday afternoon at 12:30 pm Eastern with the Jays and Phillies live from Philadelphia (though I’ll be in the studio in Toronto). I’ll have J.P. Ricciardi on the pre-game show, make sure you tune us in!
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I think I’d go with wailing over whaling, but I only figured out it was foliage, not foilage, a couple of years ago. So, what do I know?
- ParkesCan’t wait for baseball to start once again… why does wednesday seem soooo far!!!
- Currenwhat is the over/under on blown saves by Accardo before BJ returns? I will say 4.5. Nothing bugs me more than people who keep saying, “Accardo can hold is own as a closer,” and “oh, he did a great job last year.” Wow that is so far from the truth. He must just be a terrific guy off the field. Hurry back, BJ.
MW: So you’re saying the over/under on Accardo’s blown saves over the course of 2-6 weeks should be almost the same as his total of blown saves for all of last year? He blew 5, by the way. That’s just harsh.
And I have to say that 30 saves in 35 tries, with 75 baserunners allowed and 57 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings is a pretty good job.
- JamieThe Jays look very suspect coming out of pre-season. No third base, due to injury, left field not contributing with the bat, 3 and 4 spot not hitting.
I didnt see a lot to excite me at Dunedin.
Something is needed to light the fire, and I think Gibbons has to be the one to do this.
We have some great pieces, but can they pull it together and stay healthy?
We need a fast start to build confidence and to give us a cushion, because whatever the situation you know that Boston and New York will be on fire after the All Star break.
MW: No third base? Maybe not the guy we expected at third base, but someone will be there, and he’s a legit big-leaguer, a career .270/.336/.381 in April, not bad for an 8th-place hitter but I’ll grant you, no Scott Rolen.
Rios didn’t hit this spring, but Wells did, but none of that matters anyway. Check some earlier posts this month to find out just how much credence I give to Spring Training stats.
And yes, Boston and New York will absolutely be on fire after the all-star break, whatever the situation. Like last year, when Boston was 43-32 after the break and lost 7 1/2 games in the standings to the Yankees (who were, absolutely, on fire). Or maybe the year before, when the Red Sox went 33-43 after the all-star break. Whatever the situation, right? Well, at least it seems the Yankees will be on fire post-break.
- Mark HillardHey Mike, I no you don’t like compliments but im going to compliment you anyhow. I’ve listen to your show for along time and its one of my favorite parts of the summer I called in once last year and hopefully can increase that number this year I loved the blogs from florida this year they were alot of fun and i really hope you can put jays talk on the fan website so guys like me can listen to it the next day if we miss it at night.
now a couple questions.
1) when do the jays pick in this junes draft? I’ve read where other teams pick i know the rays have the # 1 pick again but haven’t heard when the jays first pick is?
2) if a team signed Bonds would they have to give up a draft pick?
3) whats your prediction for what the jays five man rotation will be in September?
MW: The Jays’ first pick will be 15th or 16th – they tied with the Brewers at 83-79. Yes, if a team signed Bonds to a major-league contract, I believe they would have to give up a draft pick. In September? I’m hoping the 5-man rotation is Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, X, Marcum – X being the Dave Cone rent-a-player type that the team will have picked up for the stretch run. Not that I don’t have confidence in Jesse Litsch, just that if you have a chance to acquire a put-you-over-the-top guy in a race, you do it.
- Dan Moore“B.J. Ryan threw in the bullpen today, and though he spiked a couple of pitches…”
Spiked?
MW: Yanked on them a little too hard, let go a bit too late, and they wound up in the dirt.
- DerekHey Mike I have a request. I live in Vancouver and my only access to Jaystalk is through the internet on this web site. Now I know that you can’t broadcast Jays games over the live streaming on this web site but often it takes too long after the game to get the connection back and I miss listening to the whole Jaystalk sometimes. It actually drives me insane because I’m clicking the listen live icon every 10 to 20 seconds(no joke!) after the game is over to see if the connection is back on the internet. If there is anything you can do or someone you can ask to look into getting the connection back on the internet sooner after the game is over so I can listen to Jays talk regularly after the games, then I would be very greatful! After all, I’m the biggest Jaysfan out on the west and I NEED MY JAYS TALK! Thanks!
- Matt from BCHey Mike, great job this spring!! I’ve really enjoyed following your reports. I’m wondering what your thoughts are on the Jays possibly stealing more bases this year? It would appear they’re better built to do so than in years past. Have J.P or Gibby mentioned anything about giving guys like Wells,Rios,Eckstein, Rolen, Coats the green light more often? Cheers
MW: I know Rios wants to steal more, but the Jays are cautious about giving him the green light because he has tended to get a little jumpy in the past. Wells could steal 20 +, but Coats won’t be on-base enough (or, likely, around enough) to get to put up any kind of serious numbers. The Jays philosophy on stolen bases remains the same: The benefit derived from the advancement of 90 feet tend not to outweigh this risk of the loss of said baserunner and the loss of one out. When the situation is right, they steal. It’s just not right a whole lot.
- Tommy ScholczI see some of the writers are picking Dustin as the dark horse in the Cy Young award. Of course, these same guys are suggesting Gibby will be the first manager fired this season. Let’s hope they’re right on both accounts.
I for one do not subscribe to the theory that our young pitchers will suffer a sophomore let down.I think Marcum and Litsch are much tougher mentally that anyone gives them credit for.
When you think about it, Marcum could have had one of the top records in the AL last year if he’d have gotten run support in 6-7 games.
Litsch,performed very well for us, other than 3-4 games, considering his age. He showed his grit in the last few games of the season against NY and Boston. I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised with him this year.
Dustin just seems to get better and better each time out and will likely be our number 2 pitcher. I do agree with the writers-Dustin will soon become one of the best in the league.
The guy that still needs a mental adjustment is Burnett.I really question whether he’s got the mental capabilities and toughness to fullfill him promise.
If we get off to a poor start and it looks like the season is slipping away, I’d dump Burnett in a country second.
It’s going to be critical that Scutaro, Accardo and League hold down the fort until Rolen and BJ get back. If they do, we have a chance, if they don’t we’re done like dinner. Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, LA are really strong this year and NY will somehow be in the mix simply because they’re the Yanks.
There’s going to be little chance to play catch up-not this season; so a good start is critical.
MW: Detroit, Cleveland, Boston and LA were all really strong last year, too, and the Yankees were playing .500 ball at the all-star break and made the playoffs. There’s always a chance to play catch-up, regardless of how the opposition looks. That said, it would be great to see a terrific start, much like the one we saw three years ago when the Jays got out of the gate 8-2 and I got crushed on a regular basis by callers because they were upset that I said that the Jays weren’t going to win the World Series and weren’t likely to make the playoffs. Lo and behold, they finished 15 games out.
Great starts are great, but they don’t mean playoffs unless they’re something like 30-8. Rough starts are rough, but not even 4-11 or even 12-24 mean you’re done. Just ask the ’89 Jays and last year’s Phillies. Wins in April are just as important as wins in September, for sure, but they’re not more important.
And by the way, if Marcum and Litsch continue to improve, and McGowan breaks through, there’s no way John Gibbons will be fired. In fact, he’ll likely win manager of the year. Sorry about your luck there, Gerry.
- gerryIs the Rolen injury similar to the overbay one last year? Is this an injury that can potentially bother him the whole year and will affect his play?
MW: No, it’s not similar at all. Overbay broke his hand, and couldn’t drive through the ball all season long. Rolen broke the tip of his finger, and wouldn’t have even missed any time if, at the same time, the ball hadn’t almost torn the pad of his finger clean off. Once this thing is healed, there should be no lingering effects. It might take him a week or so to shake the rust off, though hopefully the Jays let him do that in Syracuse.
- aviGreat job on the blog this spring, Mike… it’s been a must read.
- JamesBlog was great this spring Mike…well done.
I just wish you didnt have as much to write about with all the injuries Jays nation has to be worries about limping into the season.
- Brett VTo the above poster who’s ‘wailing’ on Jeremy Accardo; if you’re looking for some comparison, Mariano Rivera also had 30 saves last year (34 SVO). I’d be happy with Rivera closing, wouldn’t you?
- NateI was under the impression because the Giants didn’t offer Barry arbitration they wouldn’t receive any compensation if he signs with another team, despite his type ‘A’ status.
“Yes, if a team signed Bonds to a major-league contract, I believe they would have to give up a draft pick.”
I’m confused.
MW: I’m confused, too – and I’m about to fly, so I’m drugged up as well. I think a year or two ago they changed the rule so that you didn’t have to offer in order to secure draft pick compensation, but I could be wrong.
- AriHey Mike,
I echo the sentiments above, i can’t wait for Jays talk.
Just a question though about double headers and the Yankees.
It seems like teams that play more double headers then others, like the Yankees, really pick up a lot of wins through use of the double header.
Is it just me, or do teams like the Yankees who play a lot of double headers have an advantage over teams like the Jays who don’t play double headers because of the dome ?
MW: That seems counter-intuitive to me. The more doubleheaders a team is forced to play, the more its pitching rotation gets messed up, the more it has to use a minor-league call-up to make an emergency start and the more its bullpen has to do extra work when it can least afford to.
I would think that playing more doubleheaders is to a team’s great disadvantage. The way to find that out would be to check a team’s record in its doubleheaders, and in the two or three days that follow, and see how that stands up to their overall record. There’s your homework.
- DaveMike your funny. This AL East and you still haven’t figured that out. This is The Jays not the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. Yes, the Jays do need a strong start. For the Jays a great doesn’t mean the playoffs but a poor start in this division you know your not in the playoffs.
What’s been their longest winning streak, say in the last 7 yrs. MW “As long as they win 2 out 3 they’ll be fine”. Guess what, that won’t happen. That’s why you need a substanial winning streak to off set the slumps. The Jays haven’t been able to do this in years. It won’t take long to see if their contenders or pretenders.
MW: Bruno – plan the parade if they start 7-3 and bury them if they start 3-7. I’ll be around for all 162.
- brunoHi Mike keep up the great work.
Question for you. With Scutaro at third the left side of the infield is weaker defensively could this open up some playing time for Johnny Mac?
MW: Nope, because the hit the offense takes is way bigger than the hit the defense takes. I like the way you think, though.
- Paul SI remember there being a change to the draft pick rules too, but I’m pretty sure you need to offer the guy arbitration to get the pick(s). That or have the other team sign the guy before the arbitration deadline. Didn’t the change have to do with how good a guy has to be to get the other team’s pick plus the squeeze pick vs. just a squeeze pick?
- TorgenMike,
Any chance an FM station could carry the Jays again. AM blows chunks. (for reception)
Check out the latest Sports Illustrated….Jay’s 3rd again…time to prove them wrong…!!!!
Great bloggin’, smart noggin!
- DJJAYAny news on the podcast of Jaystalk? I’m really looking forward to it.
MW: Nothing that I’ve heard yet, but I’m all for it if you’re all for it.
- DROf course, there are always exceptions; but the Phillies weren’t playing in the AL east-they won the division with 89 wins. On the other hand look at Boston. They tore it up in the first half and played .500 baseball in the 2nd half and won.
The Jays weren’t the Yanks or Sox last year and they aren’t this year either. Just remember the Yanks won the wild card by winning 94 games.
For the Jays to contend for a wild card, I’d expect we need to win 93+ games, and that might not be enough.
The point is,they need all guys healthy and playing to full potential. We probably won’t get Ryan and Rolen back until May, so League, Accardo and Scuturo are going to have to pick up the slack in the meantime.
If we get off to a poor start and go 12 and 24, we’re done. Now you can have illusions that they’d go 81 and 45 in the remainder of their games to get to 93 wins, but it sure isn’t likely.
The other major thing to remember is the makeup of this team hasn’t really changed all that much. Last year they seriously struggled with risp and had no killer instinct. They’d win the first two games in a series and sluff off. They never did play with any sense of urgency of winning.
Has that changed-who knows? But, I still contend a good start (April) is critical for this team. They need to gell and get on a roll early.
Yes, Gibbons could become manager of the year in a pee-wee league in the hills of Kentucky. Please,the guy is a joke.
- gerryIs there any sign of how Gibbons is going to approach using MacDonald this year? He’s been horrible against righties his entire career, but decent against southpaws- is there any rumbling of a moderate platoon, where, for instance MacDonald gets half of the starts against lefties?
Also, there has been talk of MacDonald being the personal shortstop for Halladay- is there any hint of that from the guys who actually run things?
MW: The guys who actually run things say Eckstein is the everyday shortstop. Period.
- gabrielHi Mike,
If Thomas is struggling in the first three weeks. The Jays should then, send Coates down bring in Rolen and his bat. That’s Coates for Rolen Mike. Let him help with DH allowing him to stay sharp and keep him around. He may just win a game for the Jays. You see, THOMAS HAS TO HIT. His swing looks terable, everyone is talking about it.
Especialy where he hits in the line up with Rolen out. When Rolen is ready, Thomas becomes full time DH with Stairs helping, and pray he starts hitting. Maybe a little platooing may help him WHO KNOWS. Gibbons could always move Hill in FT position for a time but he won’t. It’s up to Framk Thomas. The Jays need to think of the Team not egos if they want to win. This is where the coach come in. Gibbons past has proven that he hasn’t been capable of making the BOLD moves need sometime to win.
MW: I suggest you look at some of the BOLD line-up moves that John Gibbons made last year, including moving Vernon Wells all over the place, dropping Thomas down in the order and even having Matt Stairs lead off (I believe the Jays were 8-0 in those games)! Rolen will be back as soon as he’s capable of contributing, that has nothing to do with Thomas.
- brunoA couple of points…
- People need to get off the Coates wagon.. It reminds me of the Simon Pond experiment.. Or in 2005 when everyone was calling Gabe Gross, Gabe Ruth…
- Also on the tv casts the last two days Jamie Campbell and Rod Black have both said Ryan Howard had an off year last year…. Why because he didn’t hit 300? Look at his minor league numbers… He doeesnt project to hit for average… Last year is what I would expect out of Howard.. Low BA, High OBP, and lots of ding and lings!
- Steve