11:55 PM Eastern

The Blue Jays’ Annual “Feed-The-Season-Ticket-Holders-And-Let-Them-

Think-We’re-Interested-In-What-They-Have-To-Say” event was a little different than usual this year. First off, there were no questions about the actual State of the French Fries. That is to say, no complaints about the food, about the washrooms, the locations of the elevators. People either are happier now about life inside the Rogers Centre than they have been the past few years, or the perennial complainers just couldn’t get their hands on the microphones. I hear there is hot water in the women’s washrooms on the 100 level now, though, in case anyone was wondering.

The State of the French Fries at the event, by the way, was underwhelming. They were soggy, but not in a good way. I’m a big fan of the soggy fry, but these were soggy in a way that said that they were taken out of the oven too soon, and they were covered in that extra layer of crispy stuff like the fries you get at Burger King or KFC. I’ve never been a big fan.

Anyway, there was some stuff that I enjoyed hearing from Paul Godfrey and J.P. Ricciardi, and some things that came out of their mouths that were pretty confusing.

First, the good. Godfrey came out strongly for a balanced schedule. He said it’s only fair that all teams play each other an equal amount of times, because there are obvious scheduling inequities depending on what division you’re in. For example, the Jays play Boston and the Yankees a total of 36 times, while the Indians and Tigers, teams with whom the Jays are competing for a playoff spot, each face those two teams just 13 times in total. Detroit and The Tribe also get to fatten up against the bottom-feeding Twins and Royals a total of 36 times, while the Jays only have one crappy team to beat up on a bunch – 18 with the Orioles. It’s simply not fair to have such a radically different schedule than a team with whom you’re competing for the same playoff spot. I’ve been in favour of a balanced schedule for a long time now, and I’m glad to hear that Godfrey is making his plea to the Commissioner’s Office, not that I think much will be done.

Godfrey also called out communities across Canada for allowing minor-league baseball teams to leave cities such as Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and Ottawa. As nice as it would be to see the Jays move the Chiefs to Ottawa when their deal in Syracuse is up, and as much fun as it was to broadcast A-ball games in Welland, St. Catharines and Hamilton back in my tooth-cutting days in baseball, it’s not the Blue Jays’ responsibility to keep minor-league baseball in Canada. The cities that have lost teams are at fault, for the most part, for not supporting the teams enough, not caring enough about them, to keep them.

More good was J.P. Ricciardi’s defence of John Gibbons’ record. I don’t know if Gibbons is a great manager, but I certainly don’t think he’s a bad enough one to be fired. There was a sense in the room that the fans felt as though Gibbons has been a disappointment, but Ricciardi brought up the fact that he has a winning record as a manager (which is not something that people like Jim Leyland, Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox and Terry Francona can say about their first 3 1/2 years as a big-league skipper) that he has the ears of his players in the clubhouse, and they like playing for him. Also, let’s remember just how bad the injuries were that the Jays suffered last year. The fact that they wound up with 83 wins was nothing short of sensational, and Gibbons has to get some of the credit for keeping the team together. He deserves more time.

Two things stood out to me as confusing. When a fan asked what could be expected from the Jays, spending-wise, now that the Canadian dollar was at par with the U.S., Godfrey responded that the reason the Jays’ payroll is upwards of $90 million this season is because of exactly that, our dollar’s parity. This struck me odd, because three years ago, when Rogers committed to increasing the payroll from $50 million per year to $210 million over three years, the dollar was nowhere near parity, and there was no indication it would get there in the near future. Remember, too, that the payroll bump came after most of the off-season work had been done, and the Jays said they’d hang at about $55 million for ’05, leaving $155 million for ’06 and’07, or almost $80 million per year. So, it’s not really a $40 million bump in payroll with dollar parity, it’s a lot closer to $10 million. The Jays could be spending a lot more if they wanted to jack up their payroll in accordance with what they were willing to pay with a 75-cent dollar.

The other confusing thing was another bit of revisionist history. In response to a fan’s statement that it would be crazy to even consider trading a talent like Alex Rios, and, in his estimation, they Jays would never have thought of dealing Rios for Giants’ righty Tim Lincecum, Ricciardi responded by saying the following:

“When we were presented with that, we thought long and hard and obviously we value Rios more than we valued the other guy and that’s why he’s still here.”

Excellent answer. Except that’s not what happened. According to Ricciardi at the winter meetings in Nashville, the Rios-for-Lincecum offer was sitting on Brian Sabean’s desk waiting for the Giants’ GM to give the OK. According to Sabean in Nashville, he was considering doing Lincecum for Rios, but was really unsure about whether he should pull the trigger. He kept going back and forth on it for a week, and when the Giants signed Aaron Rowand to play centrefield, Sabean finally told the Jays the deal was a no-go.

I don’t understand why Ricciardi would have said that to the fans. Does it make him look good to the fans that he didn’t make a trade that they didn’t want him to make, even though he wanted to? Why give that answer when it’s obvious to anyone who turned on a radio, picked up a newspaper or looked online during the Winter Meetings that it’s simply not true? I just don’t get it.

I’ll close by letting you know that you can expect to see David Purcey in the big leagues this season. The Jays’ top pick in the 2004 draft ripped through the Arizona Fall League a couple of months back, posting a 1.00 WHIP by allowing 13 hits and nine walks in 22 innings while striking out 25. He didn’t allow a homer and had a 1.23 ERA in six starts. Ricciardi raved about his progress and indicated that there will be a place for him on the big club at some point this season, at least in the bullpen. He could squeeze into the rotation if there’s an injury, and he’ll be at big-league camp to try to impress Gibbons and Brad Arnsberg.

That’s it for now, e-mail is welcome at wilner590@hotmail.com. And comments would be appreciated, too. It’s tough slugging through all the spam comments, so I want more real ones to brighten my dull winter days.

5:45 PM Eastern

Nothing better to do on a Snow Day than to write a mailbag, I’m just sorry it took me so long and that I couldn’t attempt to alleviate your boredom a little earlier than this.

Before I get to the Mailbag, I just want to touch on last night’s JaysCare affair at the Fermenting Cellar downtown. I, and a few other media types, got a chance to talk to Vernon Wells, Dustin McGowan and Jeremy Accardo – no doubt you all heard my reports on the Fan last night and this morning. I’m pleased to report that they’re all in great health, that Vernon’s shoulder rehab is done and he’s hitting, that McGowan worked harder this off-season than ever before and that Accardo seems happy to give the closer’s job back to B.J. Ryan when The Beej gets healthy.

The thing that impressed me the most was in talking to Vernon. He said something along the lines of it no longer being acceptable to think of the Jays as “contenders” or “having a chance” , he said”it’s time to win.” Talk is cheap, I know, but it’s nice to hear that as opposed to “we just want to play meaningful games in September.”

Now, onto the e-mail. I apologize for taking so long between mailbags, for that reason some of them are on older topics, but I’m hoping you’ll enjoy anyway. And as before, compliments have been removed, and the e-mail have been edited for length, but nothing else:

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hey mike, what is your opinion of Toronto acquiring Brandon Inge? if he would be willing to return to backcatcher ( i know there is know no such position exists, it’s meant in a back to the future kinda way). i’m of the opinion that this could be a good fit.
if the tigers/he agrees this is how i see it… 1. ease him back into the position w/ 60 to 70 starts primarily as a right side of a platoon w/ Zaun. 2. after the season he’s the #1 catcher. he will be backed up by whichever kid earns it. 3. for this year he also provides insurance on Rolen if he goes down. i realize one may think that Scutaro becomes redundant @ this point, but not really, he remains the back up for Inge/5th OF/Hurt’s personal late inning pinch runner. 4.Inge is signed until 2010 which is a perfect fit for J.P.’s plan. 5. rework some sort of bonus to make him feel better about putting the mask back on. 6. now as to how to get him Detroit. this could be tricky. i’m sure the Tigers kinda want to do the same thing w/ Inge after they wash there hands of Pudge next year. so in order to do this J.P. would have to dangle either Burnett or Accardo. personally i hope they would bite on A.J. you gotta think that the Tigers would be temped by that.
besides the fact that i waste my own time being an armchair GM is this a crazy idea? or is it creative? and could it be one of those over the top type moves?

thanks for your time,
chris

Chris,

If by “over the top” you mean so completely insane that it almost becomes a parody of itself, then yes, it could be one of those over the top type moves. If you mean any other definition of “over the top” then I’d have to say no.

The idea of trading A.J. Burnett or Jeremy Accardo for Brandon Inge is the worst I have heard since last September’s brilliantly-thought-out Vernon Wells for Tike Redman trade scenario.

When I started reading this e-mail, I thought the idea of having Inge here as a back-up catcher was a pretty solid one. The guy whales on left-handed pitching and was a solid backstop back when he played there. If the Jays could get Detroit to pick up a good two-thirds of the $18 million he’s still owed over the next three seasons and could get him for a mid-level prospect, that’s a good deal. But Accardo or Burnett? Sorry, no way to not make fun of that.

Brandon Inge is not a good hitter. He boosts his numbers by ripping the heck out of lefties and is awful against righties. He makes far too much money for his production level. Dave Dombrowski, even drunk to the level of blindness, wouldn’t ever consider picking up the phone and asking for A.J. Burnett or Jeremy Accardo in exchange for Brandon Inge, and if J.P. Ricciardi were to entertain such a transaction, he should not only immediately be relieved of his duties with the Jays, but more than likely never be allowed to work in baseball again. Sorry, because I know how much thought you put into it, but that would be a terrible, terrible trade. And it’s moot now anyway since The Captain has been signed.
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mike, I routinely disagree with everything you have to say and once again I can easily prove it. your evaluation of rod b vs fasano is so completely flawed. first of all you routinely complain of small sample size and then use “career” numbers as if they are gospel. career numbers are just as completely useless. what a player did 10 years ago is completely irrelevant to today. you can’t expect a 30+ year old to perform at the same level as a 20 year old. as you get older your numbers decline. so this large sample size you like to use is completely useless. a perfect example is frank thomas. he is a career .300 hitter but do you really expect him to hit .300? no of course not, because his career numbers are skewed to the upside. his past 3 years ba is only .269. which is more likely next year? what is only relevant is what a players stats are the past few years which is why espn has a split for “past 3 years stats”. you claim that rod and sal are practically the same but rod is clearly much better.

so although you claim that rod career obp is lower than sal’s that is meaninless because over the past 3 years his obp is significantly higher than sal’s and what is most important is that the numbes above have PREDICTIVE value meaning both those players are likely to but up numbers similar to the(m) not to their career numbers. and sal only hit .178 last year so he is getting even worse! and another interesting note is that rod hits righties better than zaun! past 3 years zaun is only .240 avg but rod is .258 avg with 30pts higher in slug pct. so this is clearly a good move.

please mike stop with the career numbers!!!!!

Les pais
Les,

I can’t get past your first sentence without making a comment. Had we been on the radio, that would be where I would have cut you off (and gotten you even angrier, I suppose). It’s fine by me that you routinely disagree with me, no problem, but the fact that your opening statement says how easily you can prove that you disagree with me I find hilarious. Here’s how I prove that I disagree with you: “Les, I disagree with you.” See how easy that was?

Anyway, onto your point about career numbers not meaning anything. I couldn’t disagree with you more. Again, that was pretty easy. What a guy has done over the course of his entire career gives you the greatest picture of who he is as a player. Yes, as you reach your peak, your numbers go up (hence the term), and as you age, they drop. But Barajas is 32, well past the peak years for a catcher, so by your reasoning, the numbers from his age 29-31 seasons can’t have predictive value, because he’s on the decline. Granted, not as quick a decline as Fasano, who is three years older, but a decline nonetheless.

And talk about cherry-picking! You say Fasano hit .178 last season which confirms to you that he’s getting worse, but you neglect to mention the Holy Small Sample Size Alert of the 45 at-bats in which Sal put together that average. Fasano hit .265 at AAA last year, and did you know that Barajas hit just .200 at a AA rehab stint? That’s a whole level lower! Obviously, Barajas is much worse than Fasano. Sure, it was only 5 at-bats, but we don’t have to mention that.

You’re right in that over the past three years Barajas has a better batting average than Zaun against righties, and his OPS is six points better that way, and heck, Zaun is in his decline phase as well, but the fact remains that Barajas isn’t a significant improvement over Fasano.

And by that, I mean he isn’t a significant improvement over anyone. I don’t think I went too far in pointing out that Rod’s and Sal’s career numbers are almost exactly the same, but if that comparison doesn’t work for you, here’s an additional argument – why spend $1.2 million to bring in a back-up catcher who can’t hit? Say what you will about last three years and so on, the fact is that Barajas has had only one season in his major-league career in which he recorded more than 122 at-bats and had an on-base percentage over .298. That’s horrible. And when you already have one back-up catcher in the system who can throw and not hit, why go out and spend money to get yourself another one? And yes, leaving the team at the altar last year should make a difference as well, especially when the differences are so minute.
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Mike,

I don’t have the chance to listen to you that often since I live in Ottawa (actually Navan) I’m wondering why there hasn’t been any pressure on the Blue Jays Front Office to make a push for Erik Bedard. I have heard that he might be going to Seattle, would it not be an obvious fit with the Jays? Canadian boy, Lefty, Inning eater, Veteran, other than being in the same division as Baltimore why have their be no talks from the Jays. This is exactly what they need to get to the next level. If there is talk, I haven’t heard anything up here in Senators Land.

Regards,
Jeff Brown

Jeff,

There’s been plenty of talk, mostly along the same lines as your e-mail – “why don’t the Jays make a push for Bedard?” I agree with you on half your points – he’s neither a veteran nor an inning-eater, but beyond the other stuff you said he’s also a terrific young pitcher. You hit the nail on the head when you said “same division”. That’s the entire reason a Bedard trade is a non-starter. Regardless of what he gets in return, Crazy Peter Angelos refuses to allow Bedard to be traded within the division. And seeing as how he’s currently standing in the way of the O’s getting an outstanding young centrefielder plus three other young players from Seattle in exchange for two years of Bedard, you can be sure he never would have let the lefty come to Toronto. Oh, well – Jays fans will have to wait two years for Bedard’s free agency to hit and the team to throw a whole whack of money at him.
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Hi Mike,

I’m writing on an impulse, in a bit of a state of shock over the almost-done Santana deal. I don’t know
ball history as well as you, so I ask – does this have the potential of being the worst trade ever?

Second thing, I confess to having been a pretty big JP hater, but one offseason, and one deal in particular,
have changed my mind completely. I love the Rolen deal. And, while it’s probably not nice/fair for
JMac, I like the Eckstein signing as well, because having Eck leading off creates a more well-rounded
offence.

I don’t think the Sox have any holes (ok, maybe Lugo), but the Yankees still seem vulnerable, and the Jays
don’t really have any holes either, aside from maybe the catcher position. How realistic a shot do you
think the Jays have at finishing 2nd in the East? If you think they do have a shot, how big of an outsider
do you think they would be for the wildcard?

Thanks,
Gautam

Gautam,

Only time will tell how good Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey will be, but after careful consideration I’m going to say no, this isn’t close to the worst trade ever. Remember, the Twins are only trading one year of Santana’s service plus two draft picks. Minnesota obviously wanted arms, and controllable ones at that, which made this package more attractive to them than the Yankees’ Hughes/Melky offer and the Red Sox’ Lester or Ellsbury offer – the clock had already started on all those guys.

Worst trade ever? Mike Young and Darwin Cubillan for Esteban Loaiza? David Wells and Matt DeWitt for Mike Sirotka, Kevin Beirne and Brian Simmons? Babe Ruth for No, No Nanette? Give me time, I’ll come up with more.

I’m impressed that the Rolen-Glaus trade has changed you from being a JP-hater to a True Believer. Stunned, actually, because the overwhelming opinion about that deal seems to be that it’s a clear win for the Cardinals, and I would think most JP-haters would just have fallen in line with that. The trade is definitely not a clear win for the Blue Jays, so I’m wondering why that was the move that turned you around on JP.

I think the Jays have a very realistic shot of finishing second in the East, if they can stay healthy. I have said it before, and I’m sure I’ll say it many times again – healthy, this Blue Jays team is as good as any team in the division. The wild card won’t be easy, because the Indians and Tigers get to beat up on the Royals AND Twins over almost a quarter of their schedule, while the Jays only get to beat up on Baltimore, and there are three very strong teams in the East as opposed to only two in the Central (and one in the West), but it’s a definite possibility.
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Hello Mike,

Just wondering from last season, all Blue Jay weekend games were as follows:
Saturday and Sunday first pitch at 1:07 pm est
Why does MLB schedule all our games at 1:00pm? I think two seasons ago Saturday games were at 3:00 pm est and Sunday games were at 1:00 pm est?
I think first pitch at 3 pm on Saturdays is a perfect time slot and leave Sundays for 1:00 pm first pitch. That way on Saturday I can sleep in a little longer, head down to the ball park and order me some $10 beers!
Anyways just your thoughts, I’m sure you don’t care what time the game starts but sleeping in time is always a good time other than coming down to the ball park!

Thanks,
Jason Lee

Jason,

First of all, love you in My Name is Earl, but I thought you did your best work in the ViewAskewniverse, especially at the end of the scene in the comic book store in Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back.

As far as the schedule goes, MLB doesn’t set start times, the individual teams do. The only thing is that FOX holds the rights for Saturday afternoon baseball (post-all-star break), and they used to show their games at 1:00 pm Eastern, which is why the Jays used to have Saturday games start at 4:00 pm for half the season and 1:00 pm for the other half. Now, though, the FOX games all start at 3:55 Eastern, so the Jays can get their games in before or after, if they want them on television. So the Jays choose to do it at 1:00 as opposed to 7:00.
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Hi Mike. I am a devoted listener to the fan590 and am a huge jays fan. It drives me nuts how little coverage the team gets during the average weekday – especially considering that the fa590 carries the game. Occasionally the bullpen says a little about them but thats about all. Is there anyway that you could influence them to do more bluejay coverage?
Thanks
Phil deVries (elora ontario)

Phil,

Preaching to the choir. I fight that battle all the time. I’d love to have more baseball coverage on the radio station, but hockey is king, clearly. And according to the numbers, it certainly seems to be what people want to hear. If you want more baseball on the Fan, let them know!
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Hey Mike,

You know what I see with the addition of Rolen to the Jays infield? Best defensive team in major league baseball. PERIOD.
Agree or disagree?

Scott Bergwerff

Scott,

With John McDonald at shortstop and Reed Johnson in left field along with the other regulars, I couldn’t agree with you more. With Eckstein and Stairs in there, I think the Mets give the Jays a good run for their money, especially now that they’ve added Ryan Church. When the Mets have Endy Chavez, Carlos Beltran and Church out there defensively – wow. Combine that with Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes and David Wright in the infield, and that’s some kind of good. Granted, the Mets have Carlos Delgado and Moises Alou, but the Jays have Eckstein and Stairs.
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Mike

Where is Johhny Mac headed?? He is clearly the next one out the door….no need for us to stockpile middle infielders (Eck, Jonny Mac, Scutaro, Hill, Adams, Inglett, Olmedo, Santos and Justin Jackson waiting down the pipes….)
Mark it down….Jonny Mac will be out of here in 2-3 weeks…..

Any thoughts?

Best and see you in Spring Training,

Cary

Cary,

This e-mail was written on Jan. 14, which means the Jays have until the middle of next week to make your prediction come true. Mark this down: John McDonald isn’t going anywhere. The Blue Jays aren’t stockpiling middle infielders by any means. They now have four starters and two quality, reasonably-priced back-ups. Ray Olmedo was designated for assignment (the Pirates picked him up today), and no one is counting on Joe Inglett, Russ Adams, Sergio Santos or Justin Jackson to do anything in 2008.

McDonald and Marco Scutaro will give the Jays a benefit they haven’t had in a while as bench players. Wouldn’t you rather have them there as opposed to Royce Clayton and Olmedo or Jason Smith or Howie Clark, as was the case most of last year?

As much as Jays fans realize McDonald deserves to be a starting player, he certainly doesn’t have that kind of cachet among other big-league teams, and the Jays could only get a back-up’s worth for him in trade. It’s not like teams are knocking down the door to get Mac, and it’s not like the Jays are painted into the corner they were a couple of years ago to feel as though they’re forced to move him like they did Corey Koskie.

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Mike:

Just a baseball scoring question I have; wondering if you could help.

Is it a sacrifice fly if the runner goes from 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball? Or is it a sacrifice fly only on an RBI? Also, is a sacrifice fly an official at-bat or not?

Thanks,
Scott

Scott,

It’s not a sacrifice fly unless somebody scores, and if it is, it’s not an official at-bat.

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Hi Mike,

Just thought I would throw this at you for one of you mailbags if the Rios for Lincecum deal would of went threw do you think JP would of went after Barry Bonds. I think this would of been a great move it would of made our line up wicked scary.

Regards,

Dan Moore

Dan,

It would have made the line-up wicked scary indeed had the Jays signed Barry Bonds. Or maybe I should say if the Jays do sign Barry Bonds – he’s still a free agent, after all. But I don’t think one has anything to do with the other. Nobody is seriously looking at Bonds as anything but a DH, and the Jays wouldn’t have signed him to play left field if they’d traded Rios. The Jays would love to have him if they could move Frank Thomas, but I don’t see that happening.

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Hey Mike..

I no the jays play the frist spring game on the 28th of feb…But when are the Reporting dates for pitchers and catchers as well as all postion players….The baseabll season is not that long away it well be good to hear you Jerry and Alan back on the Radio in 51 days.

All the Best to you in 2008

kevin MacBride..

Kevin,

We’ll be back on the radio a lot sooner than that, though I don’t know what our broadcast schedule for the spring will be. Chances are we’ll continue to at least webcast every home game, I’m sure details will be coming soon.

Pitchers and catchers report on February 15th, everyone else on February 20th, with the first full-squad workout scheduled for February 21st. A lot of guys check in earlier, though. Dustin McGowan has already reported, for example.

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Mike, I consider you very knowledgeable about the game of baseball and the Jays but am having a really hard time with your constant defense of JP. I heard you a couple of weeks ago on Primtime ( I believe it was a Friday night round table) when 1 of the other panelists made a comment about JP’s poor record, you again defended him. In my opinion you’re credibility as a knowledgeable baseball person is going to be in jeopardy if you continue to depend a man who has done very little for the organization unless of course you consider that he finished 2nd once – big deal !!!. This after winning 2 World Series does not cut it. Once you have tasted victory it’s hard to go backward on a consist basis with very little signs of improvement. This while the team is continuing to spend larger and larger sums of money and JP continues to use the injury excuse etc etc.

Mike, I can only think that the reason of your defense of a man who should be fired (and in most other cities would be) is that because you are taking the issue too personal – either you are friendly with JP or your current position would be impacted by a public display of his poor performance.

Mike, there are many who have the same opinion i.e. JP is doing a lousy job but have the guts to publicly say it – I’m sure you’ve heard enough of the calls. The upcoming year will be another repeat of last year – more excuses, a 3rd or lower placed standings etc etc.

Mike, you’re a knowledgeable baseball person – admit it – JP has done a poor job and needs to go.

I look forward to your response.

Thanks

Adrian

Adrian,

I think that people’s view that I “constantly defend” JP is a little off-kilter. What I think I do is look at the moves he makes individually and assess them on what I believe to be their merits. I do tend to agree with what he does far more often than not. And no, I don’t believe JP should be fired.

With Ricciardi as General Manager, the Blue Jays have recorded a .495 winning percentage. That’s certainly not good, but it does compare reasonably well to a lot of respected GMs’ records. Kevin Towers, who just got a three-year extension, has guided the Padres to a .499 record under his 13-season tenure. Terry Ryan was one of the most respected GM’s in the game, and he stepped down after 13 years running the Twins with a career .491 winning percentage. Since taking over the Tigers, Dave Dombrowski has them playing .437 ball. Dan O’Dowd, GM of the NL Champion Colorado Rockies, has had the team run at a .465 clip since he’s arrived. Do any of those guys deserve to lose their jobs?

And let’s not forget that: A) Ricciardi spent the first three years of his tenure under major, major financial restraints, and 2. the Jays are one of only three teams in MLB that have to play almost 25% of their schedule against the two highest payrolls in the game.

Remember, the fact that many people share your opinion that JP has done a lousy job doesn’t make it the correct opinion. The truth is, it’s a lot easier, as a member of the media, to just rip every move JP makes and say he’s done a horrible job and the team has moved backwards since he got here. That’s the prevailing opinion, and that’s what people seem to want to hear. Thing is, though, it’s not true. This team is in much better shape than it was when he arrived, with far fewer bloated contracts wasted on players like Alex Gonzalez, Tony Batista, Joey Hamilton, Homer Bush, Esteban Loaiza, Paul Quantrill (as good as he was – that kind of money in 2001 payroll dollars for a middle reliever?), etc. It’s a legitimate contender, if healthy.

I hate the whole notion of the “injury excuse”. Injuries are an excuse when you’re healthy enough to play but prefer to sit out. When you have 13 players have surgery in one season, that’s not an excuse. That’s playing games with a team no one imagined you’d have at the beginning of the year. Do you think anyone would have thought the Jays would even have a winning record in ’07 if they knew in April that all the injuries would happen? I mean, fine, A.J. Burnett going on the DL twice was no shocker, but most everything else was. How is that Ricciardi’s fault? That’s what I don’t get.

This year, as I did last year, I believe that the Jays are just as good as the Yankees and Red Sox, and if they stay healthy, they will be in a playoff race throughout the season. I don’t think a man should lose his job for putting that kind of team together.
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Good luck on the podcast (which would be awesome) and with doing the Spring Training shows (which would also be a great chance to talk Jays…)

We saw Robinson Diaz a bunch of times last year, and we get the impression that he’s ready for prime time. (He looks better than Curtis Thigpen, both at the dish and behind it.) What do you figure are the chances that he’ll be with the big club before Victoria Day? Catchers are a pain in the ass to figure out…the list of Jays’ catchers of the future is long and not so illustrious.

Keep on keepin’ on.

The Tao

Taoists,

Not so illustrious? I think Matt Stark might like to have a word with you.

I don’t think the chances are at all good that Diaz will be with the team that early, though I would have said the same thing about Alex Rios in 2004, and he was up just after days after May 24. So you have to go by the Andujar Dictum in this case.
I know the Jays love him, both at the plate and behind it, and they’d like nothing more for him to get significant at-bats in the bigs in 2008, but barring concurrent injuries to both Gregg Zaun and The Captain, I wouldn’t think Diaz would be up until August 1st.
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Michael,

I’m a long time Jays fan who moved to the West coast just over a year ago. I still try to see as many of the Jays games on the tube as I can, though I usually have to tape them to watch later in the evening. That’s okay because I get to fast forward through the commercials (and watch as many replays as I like!) However, I do miss hearing Jay’s Talk. Basically, the weekend and when the team’s in a more westerly time zone are my only opportunities. Any chance in the coming season you could put Jay’s Talk up as a podcast? Even if it were just for 24 hours, that would be good for me.

Thanks there.

Michael in Van.

Michael,

As the Tao hinted at up above, we’re trying our best to get JaysTalk (one word, no apostrophe – my name’s not Jay) to be podcast on the very website you’re currently enjoying. I would be surprised if it didn’t happen.
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Mike,

I enjoy reading your blog posts. I’m not as optimistic as you are about the trade because I think it’s a win-win trade for the Cards whereas too many “ifs” need to happen for the Jays to come out even or on top in this trade. Cards get rid of a huge distraction/problem in Rolen AND the Jays are picking up his entire salary . So the Cards already win. During the winter meetings, it was reported the Cards were so desperate to unload him that they were very willing to pick up some significant salary. Rolen has lost quite a lot of power and bat speed as result of his shoulder injuries, so even “if” he is 100% healthy, I seriously doubt he can regain the 28-30 HR power he used to have (he might be a 15HR guy now if healthy). I personally think that if both are heathly, Cards win very big.

Besides that, Glaus has proven that he can play hurt and still produce consistently, whereas Rolen has proven that he’s a completely writeoff offensively in a season when he’s hurt. This is demostrated by Glaus still hitting .262 with 20 HR in about 115 games last season on that bad foot and all his previous years of having OPS well above .800 despite playing hurt (03-05). Yes, Rolen’s defence is a huge upgrade over Glaus but considering his offensive production last season, is Rolen even a massive upgrade over Scutaro playing 3B? Plus, the Jays were very good on defence last season and had troubles offensively. This trade doesn’t seem to help that problem at all as the Jays have downgraded offensively to further strengthen themselves defensively.

Finally, considering the Jays lineup, it would seem Rolen might hit behind Thomas/Overbay and considering Thomas’ lack of speed, Rolen’s strengths of hitting doubles and decent speed would be ineffective since Thomas/Overbay won’t be able to score from 1B on a double. Conversely, Glaus’ propensity to hit 40 HR was much more suited to hit behind Thomas as he has all the time he needs to jog around the bases.

JT, Richmond Hill

Note: JT added in a subsequent e-mail that another reason the Cards win this trade is that hitters moving from the National League to the American League tend to drop off offensively.

JT,

Just to remind some folks, I mentioned that the Rolen-Glaus trade was a win-win for both clubs. A little redundant, I know. I mentioned that what the Jays lose in power they gain in defence, speed and the ability to hit right-handed pitching. That’s a 3-for-1 I’d make any time.

To JT’s points. Yes, the Cards got rid of a distraction, but the Jays moved a guy who wanted out as well. Glaus kept his mouth shut about it last season, but how long would he have been able to go this year without starting to make his wishes known? The Cards were willing to pay some of Rolen’s salary in other trades, but those trades involved them picking up significantly fewer dollars than they did from the Jays. One of the names most often mentioned was that of Chris Capuano, who will make $3.75 million this season. Had the Cards done the Rolen/Capuano swap and, say, paid $8 million of Rolen’s salary, they’d still be spending less money than they will this year on Glaus alone – so complaining about that is a little misleading.

I would also dispute the fact that Glaus has proven that he can produce consistently even while playing hurt. He’s a pretty streaky guy, and he really only had two good months in ’07, while he was playing hurt (April and June), and nine good games in September before getting caught in the steroids thing, err, shutting it down for the season to take care of his foot.

It’s too big a jump to think he’ll hit behind Thomas/Overbay in the line-up. Personally, I think he should hit second, and I don’t think Overbay will follow Thomas anyway, and I think John Gibbons is aware that he shouldn’t put a doubles guy behind Frank.

Lastly, it’s true that a lot of National League hitters do struggle in their first year in the AL. Guys like Edgar Renteria and Adrian Beltre have been pointed out. Someone pointed out Orlando Merced, too, but give me a break – we’re talking about good hitters here, I hope. Anyway, my thought to that end is that yes, a lot of hitters do struggle, but a lot don’t. Show me Renteria, I’ll show you Mark Grudzielanek. I’ll match your Beltre with a Mike Lowell, your Mike Piazza with a Placido Polanco. Gary Sheffield and Vladimir Guerrero didn’t have a problem coming to the Big-Boy league, neither did ordinary guys like Mark Loretta and Rob Mackowiak. Lyle Overbay had the best year of his career in his first in the AL after an entire career in the Senior Circuit. Heck, most people think J.D. Drew’s ’07 in Boston was a huge bust, but he still put up a .373 on-base, which would have ranked him second on the Jays, behind only Frank Thomas.

I believe that if Scott Rolen is healthy, he’ll have a year very similar to 2006, which would serve the Blue Jays immensely well and make this deal, yes, a win for both sides.

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That’ll do it for this one, I promise to put out Mailbags more often so that they’re not as long. Keep those cards and letters coming, though! I read them all, even if they don’t all make it to the Promised MailbagLand. The e-mail address is wilner590@hotmail.com. And comments right here on the blog itself are more than welcome, as well.