4:45 PM Eastern
When my Air Canada 320 touched down at Tampa airport about 4 hours ago, my winter was over, and work had just begun.
It was an uneventful flight, all told. I got to sit directly in front of Blue Jays’ marketing poobah Patrick Elster and we had a nice chat, though the subject of those early ticket sales to Red Sox and Tigers fans didn’t come up!
Before the flight, though, major props are in order. See, I arrived at the airport with my lovely wife, who had an 8:40 flight to West Palm Beach, so we got there around 7:15 (my flight was at 10). The deal was that I was to take down as much luggage as I could in order to make it easier on the rest of the family when they join me down here in less than a week, so I took a suitcase full of the girls’ clothes. But when the lovely wife left me at baggage check, that left me with two full suitcases, a laptop case, a roll-along workbag and two pillows (don’t ask). Luckily, the gentleman who was standing in front of me, Paul Gismondi, recognized me, and after the always-embarrassing “Hey, you’re Mike Wilner” (embarrassing for me, not him – whether he should be embarrassed that he recognized me is up to you, the reader), Mr. Gismondi offered his son Paolo to be my young assistant all the way until our bags were checked. Young Paolo was a lifesaver, no question about it. Have a good time in Phoenix, Gismondis! Make sure you hit the Chang’s in Scottsdale!
Having picked up my bags in Tampa, and this time having thought to use a luggage cart, I went off to seek fame, fortune and a rental car. Your intrepid reporter had made a reservation with Budget, including using my own coupon for a one-class upgrade, which usually allows me a more comfortable car while the Fan only has to pay for something small. Budget was willing to go so far as to upgrade me to a PT Cruiser or Chrysler HHR at no extra cost. Swell, but give me a break. I shuffled over to the Avis counter and for an extra $13 (TOTAL – not per day) I got me a Mercury Mountaineer. I will be criss-crossing Florida this month in the lap of luxury. Let this be a lesson to all you potential renters of motorized vehicles.
I’m now checked into my condo at what used to be the Clearwater Cay Club. It’s having some financial issues, but it’s still very well-maintained and gorgeous. Terrific condos, great pool, gym, three-mile walking path (Bastian will tell you it’s for running, but whatever). And now the last thing on my list is to head up the road to the Super Target and load up the fridge!
Before I do that, though, a couple of things I wanted to speak to. First of all, I was totally blindsided to find out this afternoon that the Jays had given Shannon Stewart a minor-league deal and an invite to Spring Training. I knew that the Jays had had some interest in him earlier in the winter, but the deal fell apart over term. I can’t believe that a 33 year-old coming off a .290/.345/.394 season couldn’t get a job, but I’ll welcome Stewart with open arms.
I mean, I don’t really think he’ll make the team or anything, but it’s an interesting thing to see. It seems to me that Stewart is there as Reed Johnson/Matt Stairs insurance. If one of them sputters, he’d be able to step in and get the job done. While it seems Johnson is totally healthy after last year’s back surgery, the Jays have never really been completely sold on him, and Stairs comes with his own set of caveats, not the least of which is that he’s 40 on Wednesday and put up numbers last year that he hadn’t come close to in four seasons.
Stewart is a right-handed hitter who can hit righties, so it’s possible he could move into a “platoon” with Johnson if Stairs flames out. He could do the same with Stairs if Reed doesn’t bounce back, or if either Johnson or Stairs get moved. But I think those are the only scenarios in which Stewart contributes (barring a trade of Frank Thomas, which throws Stairs in at DH and has a Johnson/Stewart left-field thing going).
I have always liked Shannon Stewart, as a person and as a ballplayer. It’s a shame that his leg problems have stopped him from being the feared basestealer that he was when he first came up. He’s a guy who can flat-out hit, and he’s definitely good enough to play in the big leagues. There just doesn’t seem to be enough room for him right now. If the Jays go with their traditional (ugh) 12 pitchers, that leaves room for 12 position players and Thomas. Zaun, Barajas, Overbay, Hill, Eckstein, Rolen, McDonald, Scutaro, Johnson, Stairs, Wells and Rios make up that dozen. Barring an injury, it doesn’t look like there’s a spot for Shannon. Of course, the Jays could decide to go with 11 pitchers, but that’s a whole other story.
I also promised I’d discuss the line-up. So, before I go, I want you to know that the line-up I handed in for John Gibbons Opening Day Line-Up contest was as follows:
Eckstein ss; Rios rf; Wells cf; Thomas dh; Stairs lf; Rolen 3b; Overbay 1b; Zaun c; Hill 2b
Please note that this is not the line-up (vs RH) that I think is optimal for the Jays, I just think it’s the one that they’ll wind up going with.
I have said before that I think that there’s a very good chance that Eckstein will wind up with the lowest OPS among regulars on the entire club, and I can almost guarantee he’ll make more outs over the course of the season than any Jay. To give him the most plate appearances seems counter-productive, despite his grittiness and hustledom, which are admirable.
Personally, I like the idea of having Rios, Wells, Thomas, Stairs and Overbay in some combination in the middle of the line-up. I think Rios should be in an RBI spot, with guys on ahead of him (like maybe Frank), I like Overbay’s good on-base and doubles power, and Stairs is a guy who keeps rallies going by drawing walks when he’s not putting the capper on them by going yard.
Against right-handers, I’d like the middle of the order to look like this – 3. Thomas, 4. Rios, 5. Stairs, 6. Wells, 7. Overbay.
It looks a little odd, I know, and you can say that Thomas clogs up the bases in front of Rios, but at least he’ll be on when Rios hits his doubles and homers. It probably costs the Jays eight stolen bases, if that.
I like Stairs in there breaking up the righties, so long as he continues to hit like he did last year, and frankly, Vernon should be hitting lower in the line-up than he has been, given his struggles against right-handed pitching. Wells has a career obp of just .315 against righties, and only in two seasons has he managed an on-base over .325 facing that side. I think though, given that he is who he is, you have to keep him in the top 6.
With those five spoken for, it leaves room for four more, and since Eckstein is more than likely your lead-off man, we have to accept that, but how about Scott Rolen hitting second? He beats up on right-handed pitching, but without the 30+ power that we’d seen from him in the past, and his speed on the basepaths is a real asset at the top of the line-up.
Put Gregg (the extra “g” is to make the name seem more regal) Zaun in the 8 spot to drive in Overbay from second, and let Aaron Hill bat ninth so that Eckstein can hit-and-run him over to third and Rolen can drive him in.
Yes, by the way, I know there have been hundreds of studies done on the effect of batting order on run-scoring. It’s still fun to talk about.
If you REALLY disagree with this line-up conflagration of mine, don’t blame me. I’ve been flying all day, and I’m on drugs.
Now that I’m in Florida, expect MUCH more content on a pretty much daily basis. Comments, as always, are encouraged!
Click here to subscribe to Wilner's blog
Was curious to hear your thoughts on Shannon Stewart, Mike. Much as I liked him when he was here, I don’t really see the point. If both Johnson and Stairs tank or end up on the DL, don’t you just bring up Adam Lind? Unless you’re trying to prevent him from accumulating service time? And if Thomas goes down, isn’t that Stairs’ job? Interesting to see how this plays out.
- JMHey Mike,
- Wil MWhat’s awesome is that Avis and Budget are owned by the same company. I used to work at one of thier call centres. They had almost 1000 staff (at its peak) and routinely hired 3-5 hundred every year.
I was also surprised to see him signed by the Jays and can’t figure out where he’d fit in, but you really think he’s not even going to make the team?
I think I’m holding out hope this is the precursor for a trade which frees up space in the outfield for Stewart to play.
- TestSubjektIf Doc is the opening day starter, wouldn’t Johnny Mac be the opening day SS? I mean, we’re talking about opening day, not every day.
- TorgenMike.
You have one hell of a job…5 weeks in Dunedin and get pay for it you are one luckey guy..Love the Blog keep up the ansome work…
- kevinKEVIN.
If you look at Rolen’s work when healthy, both his L/R splits and how he preforms in the batting order, you can make a very good case for Rolen hitting third. Kudos on recognizing that Wells needs to be hitting sixth vs RHP though – that seems to have escaped the notice of Gibby.
- WillRainMike – stumbled across your blog via the Cove Cay reference. We have an out of state buyer trying to buy a condo there now and to say it’s a challenge is an understatement. I agree this complex is gorgeous – wish they’d get their finances worked out. Welcome back to town – we’re love having our Spring Training friends back! :)
- Cyndee HaydonJM,
why would you say that there is no point. I think the blue jays are making a push for the playoffs, and with this signing they will have backup of someone goes down. I am not knocking Adam Lind, but if we has the great answer at this point, then he would be starting. This move does not hurt anyone. A one year deal, given to someone who has proven to be a hardworker, and given to someone who understands his role on the club. Plus now, if the chance is there to pick up a entra starter come trade deadline time, they Jays could deal Johnson, or Stewart, and keep Lind with the team.
- ChrisThanks for the blog Mike. Great as usual! Looking forward to Jays Talk!!!
Hey Mike,
I read on mlbtraderumors that the jays will be losing a draft pick because of this signing? Is that true? Or do the A`s have to decline offering Stewart arbitration?
- SteveI would much rather the jays signed Barry Bonds then Shannon Stweart, but do you think JP will look to move Johnson now that Stewart is aboard?
- Dan MooreMike,
I too, am a little baffled by the Stewart signing. I like the addition of Stewart to the roster in a platoon role in left field but we seem to already have a platoon situation in leftfield so I don’t know where he fits exactly. I can’t see Shannon wanting to go to Syracuse and wait for his chance if Johnson/Stairs stumble. I could see the Jays moving Johnson for a mid-level prospect or a draft pick to make room for Stewart if Stewart has a strong spring.
- DerekIn the article you mention Frank Thomas clogging up the bases. Did you know that last year by totaling Frank’s at bats plus walks only and subtracting his HR’s (drove in himself) that Frank scored once every 16 times he got on base (previous year once every 13.4). By contrast Alex Rios 1 out of 6. Troy Glaus 1 out of 10.6.
- Mike GlattFrank is a huge liability in the middle of the lineup. The stats don’t lie in this case.
Sorry horrible math on my part but the numbers say the same thing. Counting how many times Frank Thomas got on base either via a hit or walk (subtracting home runs and doesn’t include fielders choice etc.Frank scored once every 5.5 times. Alex Rios 1 every 2.5,Troy glaus 1 every 3.5, Greg Zaun 1 every 3.6. Frank is a huge liability for himself and for people behind him.
- Mike GlattMike Glatt: I don’t think you can subtract his home runs, since those are a big reason he’s in the middle of the order. Ortiz clogs up the bases too, but do you think the Red Sox are going to move him out of the heart of their order?
- Torgenmike,
I love your work and cant wait for opening day. You can never have too many good ball players and Stewart is a great insurance policy. I like the idea of heading North with stewart, johnson and stairs. With the starting rotation so promising we only need to keep 11 pitchers on staff and you can easily find at bats for Stairs between outfield, 1B and DH. I m just not ready to give johnson the spot after recovering from serious back surgery because he wasnt a shadow of his former self last season.
- DarrenStewart will prove to be a great signing, if he’s prepared to go to AAA at the start of the season, assuming Johnson and Wells are healthy. I think he’d be a great Sept. call up-but I wouldn’t trade a healthy Johnson for him at any time.
A healthy Johnson is an offensive spark plug, great defender, versatile and a gamer. If we want to get a runner on in a tight game, Reeds my guy to have up there before anyone else on this team.
Doesn’t everyone remember Stewart’s got the throwing arm of a 70 year old lady, and his legs have been gone for years.
Lind is actually a much better fit-since he bats left handed, has a much better throwing arm and could hit 20-30 HR’s when he settles in.
Now if they dump Thomas or Stairs-different scenario, but no way we can go north with 11 pitchers and contend-particulary at the start of the season.
I wonder if JP would still have resigned Stairs, knowing he would sign Stewart?
- GerryTorgen, for the record David Ortiz scored once every 3.1 times he was on base via a hit or walk (excluding HR’s). He is not a clogger like Frank (once evry 5.5). Frank (has)to hit 40 HR’s and drive in 140 or he is a huge liability in the middle. The Jays and Frank won’t suck up there pride and hit him 7 or 8 which is where he should be to avoid the clog. If any deal comes along deal him (not likely).
- Mike GlattOrtiz also had more homers hit behind him.
- TorgenWell, those ratios also reflect overall strength of one’s lineups. It’s not fair to compare Ortiz to Thomas based on how often they score. Thomas would score far mre often if people were hitting behind him last year.
- Wil MWil M and Torg, Frank’s lack of running speed is the main factor here not who hits behind him (zaun scores once every 3.5 times on base with John MacDonald hitting behind him. Frank’s number (6.5) is atrocious and leads to a Domino effect with people behind. Single to right usually moves runner first to third (not with frank). Double to gap with Frank on first. No run scored. Medium to deep fly ball with frank on third less than two out (no run scored). His on base percentage becomes meaningless other than he makes a pitcher work a liitle. Why do you think Oakland let him go after a great year?(sure part of it was money).
- Mike Glatt