9:00 PM Eastern
Sorry for the cliche-y post title, but it’s pretty well bang-on this time, since I learned of the proposed Rolen-Glaus deal (which is all done but for physicals and the Commish’s rubber stamp on the money the Jays are getting) while I was at a curling event, broadcasting for Rogers Television – you can see it on Sunday afternoon at noon and 2, I think (if you’re in Ontario). Me and the Wrench!
Anyway, this seems like a straight-up my-problem-for-your-problem sort of trade, and it looks like a good one for all parties involved.
For the Cardinals, they get rid of Rolen, who can’t co-exist with manager Tony LaRussa anymore. Who knows, maybe it’s because I hear Rolen has this crazy habit of actually staying awake at red lights. They also improve their power production at the hot corner, and one would think that Glaus is more likely to stay healthy on the grass at Busch. If he does, he’s good for at least 30 homers and a .365 obp or so, which is a nice addition to a Cards’ line-up that already has a very good right-left punch in Albert Pujols and Chris Duncan. Also, he and Rick Ankiel can trade strength tips, which is good.
For the Blue Jays, they get rid of the massive distraction that Glaus and his as-yet-unanswered steroid connection will be come Spring Training, and for the drop-off in power production (when healthy) they get a MUCH better glove in Rolen, who combines with Aaron Hill to make David Eckstein OK defensively at shortstop, a better attitude in the room (so I’m told) and, believe it or not, a better bat against right-handed pitching (when healthy).
For the last few years, Glaus has made his living by beating the living tar out of lefties and being an average or a bit better hitter against righties. To wit: In 2007, Troy had a 1.235 ops against lefties, .728 against righties. In 2006, it was 1.048 against lefties, and .806 when facing a right-hander. For his career, the big, scary robo-3b is almost 180 ops points better against lefties.
Rolen, on the other hand, has hit righties better over the course of his career than Glaus has, though he hasn’t hit lefties nearly as well. He actually belongs in the middle of the line-up when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, although he probably won’t be there.
This is to say that the offensive drop-off between Glaus and Rolen isn’t as much as most would think, at least not against right-handed pitching, which is what is out there most of the time. Against lefties, the Jays lose a huge bat, but they still have Thomas, Rios, Wells, Hill and Reed Johnson, all of whom have piggy banks back home full of lunch money that they’ve unapologetically stolen from southpaws over the course of their careers.
For the improvement the Jays get in defense and speed, it’s an easy choice to take the difference in bats.
Now, the injury issue. The one thing I say on the radio that makes most callers say “Seriously?” is this – Troy Glaus is only 31 years old. That’s because it looks like he’s a lot closer to 50. He has knee problems and heel problems and moves around like he’s auditioning for “Dancing With The Stars” in the “Do The Robot” category. Can he stay healthy? Maybe, and there’s probably a better chance on grass, but maybe not. That said, he missed a grand total of just 22 games in 2005 and 2006 combined before sitting out 47 last season.
Rolen has had surgery on the same shoulder twice, and the recovery from the surgeries cost him 106 games in 2005 and 50 more last season. Can he stay healthy? Maybe, but at least his injuries won’t take a toll on him defensively or on the basepaths, where he immediately becomes one of the Jays’ fastest players, though he’s not a base-stealer.
The Blue Jays already have Rios, Thomas, Stairs, Wells and Overbay to hit in the 3-7 spots (not necessarily in that order), if they so desire. Rolen can hit in there, or he can hit second if John Gibbons wants. He’s a more versatile offensive player than Glaus because he’s not all walks, homers and strikeouts, and he can actually help out on the bases. He’s a year older than Glaus, but 32 is far from over the hill, and if the shoulder is right, he’ll be a very productive player in Toronto.
I guess the next topic of discussion among JaysTalkers will be: “Would you have traded Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista for Scott Rolen”? Oh, well.
Comments are welcome, and the e-mail address is wilner590@hotmail.com
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Mike,
Thanks for another good post. I have one bone to pick though:
“For the Cardinals, they get rid of Rolen, who can’t co-exist with manager Tony LaRussa anymore. Who knows, maybe it’s because I hear Rolen has this crazy habit of actually staying awake at red lights”
Weak attempt at humor. Yeah, we get it… not funny. That story has come and gone, give the guy a break. The old man can’t hold his liquor (allegedly of course). So what.
In terms of the trade itself (the real issue here), I see Glaus and Rolen as essentially the same banged up, early 30′s 3B. Perhaps JP knows something we don’t??
- KirbyI really like this trade for the Jays. When I take a look around the infield with Overbay, Hill, Eckstein (or MacDonald) and now Rolen…the pitching staff has to like it too. I’d have to think this is now one of the better defensive infields in the AL.
- MikeMike (from the comments), I’d say that when McDonald is on the field it will be the best defensive infield in baseball. . . history. Of course, I’m incredibly biased.
Kirby, there’s no allegedly about it– the police video where he can’t say the alphabet is out there. The guy was blasted and got behind the wheel. Not sure why that should be off-limits. Quite the opposite, I figure. And it’s not like he couldn’t have afforded a cab, he just willingly did something grossly negligent and stupid and pretty much deserves whatever flack he gets for it. No?
- stoetenstoeten, good points. Don’t think that I’m defending TLR, I just think its totally unrelated to the falling out they had. There’s no excuse for someone to be behind the wheel after drinking. I just think that tying that embarrassing event to his relationship with Rolen is a cheap shot. He does deserve flack for it, but i think the time already came and went (and he got enough of it).
Should we scowl at the mention of his name from now on? While this is unrelated to him as a man, he is one of the best managers of our time.
- KirbyGood comment about Ankiel and Glaus. All junkies need someone to stick a syringe in their ass.
Good riddance of Glaus with all the talk about steroids and him limping around constantly. I would rather have Rolen with his non-throwing shoulder injury.
I think we still have to throw some respect at Glaus for fighting through last season and painfully playing when most players would hang it up.
- Brett Vancisestoeten
Here’s the video you mentioned.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ckcw8hhwgE
- gerryGotta agree with Stoeten on the LaRussa dig. If you want to argue that Wilner’s joke isn’t funny because there’s nothing funny about some dumbass getting blitzed and getting behind the wheel, that’s one thing (though mocking him for it is certainly fair game in my mind). But to argue that we should give the guy a break for doing something reckless and dangerous is a bit silly. There’s a video that circulated around the internet that showed LaRussa unable to keep his balance or recite the alphabet properly (he included some numbers in there, so maybe he was reciting a sabermetric alphabet of some sort).
In any case, my early thoughts on the deal are that I like it. That may well be because I became pretty disenchanted with Troy after his frequent days off coupled with the steroid thing. It’s also possible that Rolen’s shoulder is damaged beyond repair and we’ll wind up with 100 games a year of mediocre-to-bad production, but I think it’s a reasonable risk to take, given that we’re sending a risky guy the other way.
- JustinI really think this trade will help the Jays.
Having Rolen at the hot cornere will definately make the defense better, Glaus was basically a tree, barely moved and couldn’t change direction after making that initial move.
Also with the bat, Glaus has more pop but Rolen can hit for more average which is what the Jays need, already have enough guys that just go hacking away hoping for the long ball.
Rolen can also add some intensity to this team which has been missing since the days of O-Dog.
- SullyI love that comment about Glaus essentially being “31 going on 50″… I attended about 60 home games last year and I would have to agree with what I just heard Mike say at the end of his spot on the Swirsky show today… it “hurt” to watch Glaus play.
Constantly a threat at the plate, sure, but every time he took the field, he was grimmacing and stretching, seemingly waiting for some part of him (knee, ankle…) to explode.
Unfortunately for Jays fans who love to listen to the latest gossip surrounding the team, Glaus has been sent on his way before he could be grilled about the steroid allegations against him… but as you stated, he’ll find a buddy in St. Louis (Ankiel) who will be happy to chat with him over a “juicebox”.
To me, Rolen is a bit of an unknown… of course I’ve looked at his stats, know about his surgeries and fallout with Cardinals management, but the fact that he has been in the N.L. and I have been at the Rogers Centre for the bulk of three summers means that I haven’t seen him play often enough to make a judgement on how good he is or could be if he’s healthy. Like all of us, I’m anxious to see what he’ll bring to the table, the Jays infield looks absolutely unbelievable if Rolen will take more than one step to his right or left to get to a grounder… that’s about all we could expect from Glaus…
Keep up the great work – already looking forward to the ’08 season!!!
- AndrewMike
This move leave one final question
Where is Johhny Mac headed?? He is clearly the next one out the door….no need for us to stockpile middle infielders (Eck, Jonny Mac, Scutaro, Hill, Adams, Inglett, Olmedo, Santos and Justin Jackson waiting down the pipes….)
Mark it down….Jonny Mac will be out of here in 2-3 weeks…..
Any thoughts?
- Cary CHi Mike, Buster Olney is reporting that Glaus asked for a trade. Did you hear any of this before?
- SteveMike, another typical move by JP. This year’s team is a minor adjustment from last so I guess we can expect more of the same in terms of performance. When is enough enough. It’s time for JP to go !!!!
- Adrian