Who will win the Kentucky Derby?  I haven’t got a clue. Every year, the lead-up to the Run for the Roses tends to produce a standout,  a brilliant colt heads and shoulders above the rest of the thousands of three year-olds running in the United States and Canada.  Big Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funnycide…But this year…not so much.

True, Todd Pletcher’s Eskendereya, a son of Giant’s Causeway, looked to be the guy after his convincing wins in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the first by almost nine lengths, the second by almost ten. But Eskendereya showed some swelling in a front leg and Pletcher has scratched his star.

And that leaves a mess.  Millions will be bet on the Derby at Churchill Downs, which means someone has to be the favourite and it appears that the Bob Baffert trained Looking At Lucky will inherit that burden. I guess you could do worse. Looking At Lucky, a son of the Great Canadian stallion Smart Strike, won five races as a two year-old,  ending his rookie season by capturing the Gr l Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood at a mile and a sixteenth. This year, Looking At Lucky has raced only twice. he won the Gr 2 Rebal Stakes at Oklahoma Park, but was third to Sidney’s Candy in the nine furlong Santa Anita Derby on April 3rd. The chart line indicates that Looking At Lucky did not have the best possible trip; he was steadied and dropped back on the second turn, but still rallied nicely for the show spot as the 4-5 favourite.

Many of the other prep races for this year’s Derby produced shocking longshot winners..Ice Box, trained by Nick Zito got his nose in front of Pleasant Prince at the end of the Mile and an eighth Florida Derby at Gulfstream in March. Ice Box was over 20-1.

Stately Victor went off at 40-1, the longest shot, in the Gr l Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 10, but was pulling away by more than four lengths at the wire. Stately Victor is a son of Ghostzapper and is trained by Michael Maker.

Line of David, trained by John Sadler, surprised in the Arkansas Derby, shading Super Saver by a neck at odds of 17-1.  And Mission Impazible, a son of Unbridled’s Song, won the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in March, paying $16.20.

If there’s one thing I’ve noticed in five decades of fruitless horse betting, it’s that huge longshots never repeat their wins. So you could toss Ice Box, Stately Victor and Mission Impazible and probably not suffer any regrets. But where to from there?

Well, who ran close to Eskendereya? If Eskendereya was the best of the competitive three year-olds it sort of figures that anyone not terribly crushed by that one will perform well in the Derby. Jackson Bend actually went off as 5-2 second favourite against Eskendereya (7-2) in the Fountain of Youth and came second and then was second in the Wood. Each time the margin was measured in time zones, but no other horse was closer.

Super Saver was just a neck back of Line Of David in the Arkansas; that could easily be reversed. In that same race, Noble’s Promise was installed as the 8-5 favourite, but had a bad break, was bumped early and steadied late.  Everyone will see what appears to be a well-beaten fifth on his resume, but that one might bounce back . Also,  Noble’s Promise was second in the Rebel Stakes to Looking At Lucky. If Looking At Lucky is 3-1 and Noble’s Promise is 20-1, you’ve stumbled on what we like to call ‘value’ at the track.

A horse called Paddy O’Prado won’t be ridden by Edgar Prado,  but I like this one’s second to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass. Paddy O’Prado was leading in the stretch  and made most of the front-running in that race. It was just his second race of the year, so he could definitely have earned some ‘bottom’ and be prepared to run a much tougher race at a mile and a quarter.Paddy O’Prado’s first race this year was a win at nine furlongs on the turf over Dean’s Kitten who went on to win the Gr 2 Lane’s Stakes at Turfway at odds of 6.5-1, so that makes Paddy O’Prado a more attractive selection.

Back to the Blue Grass. The favourite, at 3-1, was Interactif, who did not get a particularly wonderful ride from Rafael Bejarano who took Interactif six-wide into the stretch and simply covered too much territory. This would be another horse that could win, pay $30-$40 and we’d all slap our heads and say, “Why didn’t I see that!”

In the Florida Derby, Rule finished 3rd as the 9-5 lukewarm choice.  There didn’t seem to be any real excuse for his fade job in the stretch, but he’s another who will be making the Kentucky Derby  his third start of 2010 and maybe he just hasn’t raced enough or maybe he comes up with his lifetime best and wins this.

Then there’s Awesome Act, a son of the great Canadian colt, Awesome Again. Awesome Act looked, well, awesome winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, coasting to the wire a length and change ahead of Yawanna Twist. Awesome Act paid just &7.70 and being that daddy won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Queen’s Plate, the ten furlongs of the Derby would clearly be within the capacity of his genes.

They’ll be drawing post positions today for the Derby and that might help the handicappers but don’t let a high post discourage you. There is a remarkable history of horses from the outside winning or hitting the board. Charasmatic in 1999 scored from post 16 and paid $31.30. the next year it was Fusiachi Pegasus out of the 15th slot. and in 2001, Monarchos not only scored at 10-1 from post 16, but he stopped the clock in 1:59.97, fastest time since Secretariat posted a 1:59 in 1973  – from post 10. And in 2008, Big Brown went off at 2.40-1 and won by almost five lengths, despite the fact that they stuck him in post position 20, just a length or two from the valet parking.

What we’re trying to communicate here is that when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, toss out all your conventional handicapping tools.  Steer yourself away from the low-price horses, seek out something that appears capable of running a mile and a quarter and don’t let runner-up or third place finishes in recent races discourage you. It’s a real crap shoot this year. Make sure you get….’value’.

Even without Rachel Alexandra, they attracted more than 44,000 to Oaklawn on Friday to see Zenyatta win the $490,000 Apple Blossom Stakes.  It might have been the easiest of Zenyatta’s wins, but when the 6 year-old mare hit the wire first by a  widening four lengths, she tied Cigar and Citation with 16 straight wins – the record for horses running in unrestricted company. A wonderful seven year-old mare Pepper’s Pride actually won 19 straight without a loss. She retired last year, but you can’t compare that one to Zenyatta.  Pepper’s Pride was brilliantly managed, running only in New Mexico, only in sprints and only against females.  Zenyatta has a chance to script the greatest career in horse racing. Unlike Cigar and Citation, Zenyatta has put together a streak without ever losing ( both Cigar and Citation were beaten in their first year of racing).

Zenyatta’s latest win came in stereotypical fashion. Jockey Mike Smith let her run in last as the four others ran ahead of her down the backstretch in this mile and an eighth test.  The front-runners, wisely set lethargic fractions and normally that doesn’t help a horse that’s languishing in last. But there is nothing normal about Zenyatta. When Smith said, ‘it’s time,’ Zenyatta started to lengthen her strides. Avoiding any trouble, Smith guided her to the outside and even at the head of the stretch, this one was a no-doubter. Zenyatta was bet down to the lowest possible pay-off…a mere nickle for every dollar bet, but there was a surprisingly big exactor payoff of $18 when the longshot of the race, Taptam (35-1) finished second.Basically that means if you’d taken Zenyatta on top of every horse in the race, for each $2 you bet, you cashed $18.  You would have had to bet $360 to win in order to profit by $18.

Meanwhile, the Woodbine meet is off to a lovely start and what a pleasure to see that Eurico Rosa da Silva is the leading jockey. With 11 wins in 33 races, he’s got a margin of two wins over Emile Ramsammy, with Patrick Husbands in third with six wins.  Omar Moreno is fourth with 5 wins and Justin Stein has been money in the bank so far. With only 12 rides, he’s got four wins, four seconds and a third for an in-the-money percentage of .750.

Da Silva was the winner of the Star Shoot Stakes aboard the excellent three year-old filly Biofuel, who simply shot by the field as if she was loaded with rocket fuel. Nice bit of redemption for Biofuel who deserved a much better fate in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies race at Santa Anita. As Biofuel was making a very dangerous run through the stretch, she was violently assaulted by Negligee.  No Maple Leaf threw as devastating a check in 82 games this year. No Argonaut in recent seasons has tackled a ferociously. Biofuel recovered and was running strongly at the end, but her 4th place finish was much worse than she deserved. Incredibly, at the end of the year, Biofuel suffered the further punishment of having to share Two Year-Old Filly of the Year Sovereign Award honours with Negligee.  In last Saturday’s Star Shoot, Biofuel made no contact and roared past her overmatched opponents with disdain. At this point, Biofuel looks to have an enormous year ahead of her, as she has aleady shown stunning capacity at sprints and around two turns.