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It would appear that there is virtually no chance Woodbine-based jockey Chantal Sutherland will be riding Mine That Bird in the Belmont on June 6. Mine That Bird worked out at Belmont Monday - he ran a leisurely :51 in the slop over half a mile and Calvin Borel was aboard for the workout. That would suggest he plans to pilot the Kentucky Derby champion two Saturdays hence. Borel rode the superfilly Rachel Alexandra to victory by a length over Mine That Bird in the Preakness and is the first call jockey for the filly, but Rachel Alexandra’s people haven’t decided yet if she will run in the third jewel of the American Triple Crown.

Sutherland’s involvement in all this is interesting. Mine That Bird was eligible for the Kentucky Derby based on his career winninngs, most of which came from three Stakes races captured last season at Woodbine, for which Sutherland was the succesful jockey. When trainer Chip Woolley arrived at Churchill Downs for the Derby, he considered Sutherland for the ride, but elected to put Borel on the horse. You can hardly criticize the decision - Borel is a genius at Churchill and his ride on Mine That Bird in the Run for the Roses will go down in history as the textbook example of how to save time and space in a horse race.

Borel though, jumped to Rachel Alexandra for the Preakness after piloting her to a ridiculously easy win in the Kentucky Oaks, the day before the Derby.  Mine That Bird made another sensational move from last and second by a length in the Preakness and his jockey that day was Mike Smith, boyfriend of Chantal.  Smith has advised that he will be riding at Hollywood on June 6, and won’t be available for the third leg. Steve Asmussen, trainer of Rachel Alexandra, said that if Borel elects to go with Mine That Bird, then Rachel Alexandra will carry Robbie Albarado if she runs in the Belmont.

 All of this seems to leave Sutherland out of the equation. Too bad, because she’s been riding brilliantly at Woodbine with a couple of strong examples last Saturday.

In the 6th race, on 7-1 hsot Gigolette, who certainly didn’t have impressive form, Sutherland maximized her filly’s chances, keeping her inside and amongst horses down the backstretch, finding room as they straightened into the stretch and pulling away to prevail by over a length at the wire.

Two races later, she gave Sans Souci, a three year-old filly, a similar efficient trip, rallying from 7th at the half to a half length win at the wire in the $125,000 Lady Angela Stakes. Trained by Michael Doyle for Eaton Hall Farm, San Souci went off at 4-1.

Anyone watching Woodbine racing last year saw Sutherland put on a clinic on the grass. The turf season has just begun at Woodbine and you can count on her bringing in all kinds of prices this summer.

Sutherland has moved into second in the jockeys race with 27 wins from 163 rides. Leader Patrick Husbands has had a brilliant season so far - he’s won 43 times from 163 mounts.

I probably like talking about jockeys as much as I do about horses or the doubles I win. Chantal Sutherland is always a good story and you have to wonder how she felt on Saturday when her boyfriend Mike Smith rallied Mine That Bird from last into second place behind the amazing filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness Stakes. Mine That Bird was considered the fluke of all time when he won the Kentucky Derby at more than 50-1, but to pull off the spectacular come from behind surge in two major Jewels in two weeks puts this horse in a whole new class - how about if we call him the best colt in North America right now? After all, twice in a row with all the cash on the line, Mine That Bird has hit the wire several lengths ahead of Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire. As for the filly, she’s won six straight, she’s the first to win the Oaks and the Preakness and in fact, the first filly since 1924 to capture the second Jewel. Should be fun if Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird both enter the Belmont on June 6. And should that happen, there is a certain possibility that Chantal Sutherland will be summoned to ride the Bird. She was the jockey last year when Mine That Bird won three straight Stakes races at Woodbine and had been called before the Derby to see if she was available. Calvin Borel gave Mine That Bird an historically brilliant inside trip to the wire in the Kentucky Derby, but he elected, wisely, to ride Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. Smith won’t be available for the Belmont because of other commitments ( note to Mike Smith - everyone knew the Belmont would be on June 6 - what other ‘commitments’ could you possible have made?), so thejockey on Mine That Bird right now is TBD (to be determined).

Anyway, that makes a great local story if Chantal rides in the Belmont. Julie Krone holds the distinction as the only woman to win a Triple Crown event. She was on the back of Colonial Affair when he won the Belmont in 1993.

Meanwhile, Tyler Pizarro is making some noise at Woodbine. He had three winners yesterday and each was at a price. Pizarro scored with Wise Knight in the third, winning the 61/2 furlong $16,000 claim race by a length and change and paying $12.40 to win. Two races later, he guided Awesome Easton to victory. Awesome Easten came into the stretch some six lengths behind the leader Would If I Could who would have won, but he couldn’t hold on. Pizarro and Awesome Easten were relentless in the stretch and passed the leader 25 yards from the wire. A $2 win bet on Pizarro returned $13.10. And it was a very good idea to stick with this polite, well spoken young man, because in the day’s feature, the  $150,000 Vigil Stakes, Pizarro rallied 22-1 shot Field commission from the back of the field to a resounding, if surprising win by a length and a half at the end of seven furlongs. Sutherland came second on Dozen Dancer at 56-1 and that set up some tantalizing payoffs: Field Commission paid $46.90 to win, Dozen Dancer was worth $43.00 to place. The exactor was a juicy $1301.40 and the triactor paid $8047.20.The superfecta for $ 1 was worth $26,777.40.

Patrick Husbands, the defending jockeys champion still has a huge lead in first place with 39 wins…18 more than runner up Chantal, but the triple by Pizarro has him tied for fourth with Eurico Rosa da Silva and Jim McAleney.

Turns out that Mine That Bird’s remarkable win in the Kentucky Derby was not the

most surprising upset in May. As far as a tote board explosion is concerned, Stinger Blue

Chip rattled the bettors the most, roaring up in late stretch to score by length in the

$73,500 final of the Diplomat Pacing Series Saturday night, May 9  at Mohawk, and he did so at eye

-popping odds of more than 90-1 for catch driver Jason Brewer. The $193.40 he paid almost makes the

 $103 payoff from Mine That Bird look like small change. Well, not quite.

I was the benificiary of a most unusual payoff last Sunday. If you allow me, I will rant on for hours about

the mathematical advantages of playing the daily double. So there I was Sunday, handicapping the first

 race at Woodbine and I see that Patrick Husbands is almost 5-1 on Sir Heart Throb. Here’s a tip. If you

 ever see Patrick Husbands at better than 3-1, go to the window, bet heavily. Husbands is so zoned in,

 it’s insane. He could win on a donkey. Sir Heart Throb had a few decnet lines, aside from having the

 track’s best jockey on his back  I wheeled him in the double with three win the second, making sure to

 include Sweet Therapy in the second. Sweet Therapy was ridden by Chantal Sutherland, and though

 I have already characterized Husbands as the best rider on the grounds, it’s amazing how many

 Sutherland horses produce their highest Beyer number. Rule of thumb - any horse ridden by Chantal has

 to be considered.

So Husbands wins the first and the horse pays  a happy $11.50 to win and Sweet Therapy goes off at

7-2 and pulls away to win the second. That would be the third favourite hooked up with the second

 favourite and a couple of the track’s most bettable riders. So explain me this: How does the double pay

 $130.50? That’s 64-1.If you apply a little math to the two winners, you get about 18-1. So the double

 returned about 3 1/2 times the value of the win prices. 

We missed another Canadian angle when we broke down the mind-blowing 50-1 win by Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby last Saturday. There was a short period of time in which Chantal Sutherland thought she’d be flying down to Lexington to ride Mine That Bird. She had been called by the owners, but ultimately they had the chance to get Calvin Borel and Chantal understood.

“That’s horse racing,” she shrugged. And no one could argue that Borel wasn’t the best possible choice. His rail riding journey to victory will go down as one of the all-time greats.

Fast Forward to last night. Sutherland wins the fourth race by a widening 9 lengths on favourite Valid Squeeze. Afterwards, on the Score, she’s being interviewed by Renee Keirans and Sutherland lets it out of the bag that she still might get a mount in a Triple Crown race.

“Rachel Alexandra might run in the Preakness,” she revealed to Keirans and this could set off a series of dominoes that just might send Sutherland to Baltimore. Rachel Alexandra is the star of the three year-old fillies and her 20 length win in the Oaks on the day before the Derby was dazzling, to say the least. More importantly, Rachel Alexandra was ridden by Calvin Borel. If the filly is thrown into the Preakness mix a week from Saturday, Borel has a big decision to make. Is he more  committed to the owners of the filly than he is to the people who own Mine That Bird? Because if Borel elects to ride Rachel Alexandra, Sutherland’s name, once again, gets in the mix.

Though it’s hard to imagine that Borel would abandon the chance to double up in the Preakness with Mine That Bird. How many chances does the average jockey get to go for the Triple Crown?

Well, I certainly didn’t pick Mine that Bird to win the Kentucky Derby. Truth is, I did everything I could to dissuade anyone from betting on it. Yesterday, in a 680News report I filed on the Kentucky Derby field, I spent all of half a second, throwing Mine that Bird in the refuse heap as a horse that had no chance.

In the press room, as post time approached and I doubled up on my action on Dunkirk and Regal Ransom, my friend Eleanor told me she wanted to bet $2 to show on Mine that Bird.

“Are you nuts?” I responded and then pushed her face in the form to show her how Mine that Bird was winless in 2009, how Mine that Bird had never run as fast as most of the horses in this race, how Mine that Bird had Beyer figures so much below almost every other horse in this race that he would probably have trouble finishing in the top 10…of the next race. My arguments were clearly powerful and persuasive; Eleanor bet her $2 on another horse.

Anyway, what Mine that Bird and his jockey Calvin Borel did pretty well defies logic, but it makes for the greatest horse racing story in decades. While most in the bulky field of 19 were thrashing into each other or spinning their heels in the greasy muddy surface, Mine that Bird was far behind, but on the inside, and when Borel spoke to his horse, he got an amazing answer. Mine that Bird started passing horses along the rail; from the remarkable overhead camera, it looked as if the entire field - but one- was standing still. When Mine that Bird cleared the final horse in mid-stretch (with maybe an inch to spare between his left flank and the rail), the most astonishing Derby surprise in modern times was about to be written.

Mine that Bird went off at 50.60 on the dollar and paid $103.20, a little bit more than Giacomo ($102.60)did in 2005. There are two very strong Canadian connections to this horse. He was originally purchased for $9500 by Woodbine trainer David Cotey. Mine that Bird did not at first indicate world championship form; he was an unremarkable 5th, beaten nine lengths in his maiden race, in which he went off at odds of 15-1. He won his next outing under jockey Constant Montpellier and paid $20.30 to win. Next time out he ran in the Silver Deputy stakes and with Chantal Sutherland at the helm, Mine that Bird won by two lengths at 10-1. He then captured the Swynford Stakes and the G3 Grey Stakes in succession, a sequence that led him to being named the Jockey Club of Canada’s Sovereign Award winner in 2008 as Best Two Year-Old. When Cotey was offered over $400,000 for the horse, he gladly sold him. When Mine that Bird was a distanced 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race last fall at Santa Anita, his owners offered to let Cotey buy him back for less. Cotey turned down the offer.

Mine that Bird’s odds on the first Saturday in May had everything to do with his past performance chart. He had raced twice at Sunland Park in New Mexico ( where Kentucky Derby horses never come from) and the results did not earn him comparisons with Big Brown. He was second, then fourth and his times were ordinary, at least when compared to Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, West Side Bernie, General Quarters and pretty well every other horse in the race.

But Calvin Borel is on fire at Churchill. The day before he had won the Kentucky Oaks for three year-old fillies. He was on a brilliant filly called Rachel Alexandra, who won by over 20 lengths as the huge odds-on favourite. By doubling up in the Derby, Borel is the first jockey since Jerry Bailey pulled off the trick in 1993, to win both the Oaks and Derby.

The payoffs generated by the surprising win were life-changing. The exactor with Pioneerof the Nile paid $2074.80, the tri was worth $41,500 and the superfecta (the top four horses) returned $557,006.

And just for the record, the horses that I did, in fact recommend were Dunkirk (11th), Regal Ransom (8th) and Chocolate Candy (5th).

I love the Friday before the Kentucky Derby because of the opportunity to bet one of the more intriguing plays on the gambling smorgasboard.  Woodbine is offering  a daily double bet spanning the Kentucky Oaks, which is a mile and an eighth for fillies today and tomorrow’s 20 horse Derby at a mile and a quarter. I won’t bore you here with why the double is my favourite bet; just accept the fact that it offers tremendous value against risk and that’s what you’re always looking for in a bet.

The Oaks-derby Double is special though, because it’s really not a daily double, but a bet placed over two days. If you get the winner of the Oaks, you have 24 anxious, exciting suspense-filled, nail-biting, heart-pounding hours to find out if you’ve won the bet. Being alive in the double for an entire day is a delicious experience. You wake up Saturday morning, feeling alive, because you’re sitting on a ticket with half the work already done.

My best friend Jim McKenny, as enthusiastic a horse player as you will find, had an amazing experience in 2006. Knowing I was going to Woodbine to bet the two day double, McKenny phoned me and asked whom I liked in the Oaks. I gave him several numbers - I think they were 5,7, 11 and 13. Much later that day, McKenny called me just as the horses were entering the gate. He was at work, I was watching on HPI. “Remind  me of the numbers you gave me,” he asked and I repeated them I heard a popular four letter curse word at the other end of the line.

“I took the 14 horse instead of the 13,” moaned McKenny.

The 14 horse was Lemons Forever, a 42-1 shot. Lemons Forever won and paid $96 and McKenny was live on four horses for the next day. When Barbaro won the Derby ( anyone recall that he was 6-1?), McKenny’s double paid over $800.

OK, so let’s get to my selections today. Rachel Alexandra will be the heavy favourite. She’s won her last four and in doing so,  paid $8.20, $2.80, $2.60 and $2.10.  I throw out horses like that, because I don’t want such a small slice of the pie. So in today’s Oaks,  I will bet #5 Justwhistledixie, #8 Flying Spur and to a lessor amount, # 4 Gabby’s Golden Girl. In the Derby, I like #15 Dunkirk, #10 Regal Ransom, # 11 Chocolate Candy and #6 Friesen Fire. I will bet $4 doubles on 5 & 8 with 6,10,11 & 15 - that will cost me $32 and I will throw in $2 doubles on 4 with 6,10,11 &15 for another $8. $40 well-spent, especially if the 1-2 favourite gets beat in the Oaks today.

By the way, Regal Ransom may be one of those horses who wins the Derby, pays over $40 and you look at him and say…how did I miss that? How could a horse that had won the most money in the entire field go off at 20-1? How could a horse with the fastest 7 -furlong race in the field be such a longshot. Trust me, if Regal Ransom wins, I’ll have some money on it and will boast endlessly in this exact place on Monday!