This weekend was a great example of why you should always strike a case against the favourite. In yesterday’s Woodbine Mile, with $1Million at stake, Kip Deville, considered the best grass miler in the world was pounded down to 50 cents on the dollar, then staggered in 5th. He’d come in with a three race winning streak and as far as the bettors poring through the racing form were concerned, Kip Deville had the best figures ( remind me to rant about Beyer figures in the future.)
But it had been raining Saturday night and into Sunday morning and the E.P. Taylor course was yielding, which meant the horses’ feet sunk deeper than usual. The fractions for the first two Stakes races on the grass sure indicated that the going was slower – the Canadian Stakes produced 6 furlongs in 1:14, the Northenr Dancer Stakes saw the leaders go that distance in a doddering 1:17 4/5 ( or as track announcer Dan Loiselle might say, slower than weight loss).
So what was Cornelio Velasquez doing going head to head on the outside with Just Rushing in splits of :48.25 and 1:11.93? On the soggy going, that was way too fast. Slade Callaghan ran a much brighter race on the winner Rahy;s Attorney, coming inside of horses as they came into the stretch and holding off the field to win as the $12.65-1 second shot. In fact, if you were brave enough to toss the 1-2 favourite Kip Deville ( who staggered in 5th), taking the next three favoured horses would have given you a $107 exactor. Boxing the seocnd, third and fourth faves in the tri was worth $757. That is a great return if you had the guts to toss the obvious choice.
The night before at Mohawk, the amazing trotter Deweycheatumnhowe was crushed to 15 on the dollar in an elimination for the Canadian Trotting Classic and you should google YouTube for a veritable clinic on how to beat a favourite by Tin Tetrick. Tetrick is just 26, but has already won over 670 races this year (mostly at the Meadowlands, but the guy drive 24/7). Deweycheatumnhowe looked home and cooled as they came into the stretch, but Tetrick on the second favourite, Crazed did the coolest thing. He drafted directly behind Dewey and I still wonder if Dewey’s drive Ray Schnittker could even figure how close Crazed was. With less than an eighth to go, Tetrick pulled out, kind of like the slingshot effect you see in Nascar and was able to power past Deweycheatumnhowe who was either powered down or just not 100%.
And therein is the message. When a horse wins, it’s often because he is as close to 100% as he can be. But horses, like us in the people species, are often not at their best. I always recommend betting against the favourites because the payoff, if you get it right, is almost always greater compared to the chance you took. Conversely, betting on a horse that will only pay $2.30 assures that your payoff will be much less relative to the chance of it winning.
Crazed returned $8.50 to win.
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