Archive for August, 2008
Trust me. I am good with Daily Doubles
Sunday, August 31st, 2008
I went 0 for 4 on the doubles. The only good thing is that there was a scratch, which means my days; loss was only $30. So I’m $35.45 in the hole for the first weekend.
It was cool to see Marlang win the Saranac at Saratoga. 45 year-old Richard Dos Ramos, who is one of the all-time nicest guys, by the way, is having a lovely summer, adding this excellent Stakes race to the Breeder’s he won a few weeks ago. Between Dos Ramos and Robert Landry ( not to mention David Clark), the brittle old guys still seem to know their way to the finish line.
Nothing special from my first double picks.
Saturday, August 30th, 2008
I bet $18 (fictionally) in my picks earlier today and there was little to celebrate. I hit the first double at Woodbine, but it paid $25.10 so half of that is $12.55 - my net loss was 5.45.
Here’s Sunday’s doubles: The first race looks like a lock for the 7 Breakwithtradition, so let’s break with the tradition of betting a sure thing and find two to beat it: I’ll go fishing with #4 Barrichello and David Clark and #6 Fort Garry. You rarely get any kind of value on a horse Emma-Jayne rides, but this one might be overlooked. Hook those two up with these four in the second race: #2 Mr. Bowie (Wilson), # 4 Star Prospector (McAleney), #5 Big Love Bill (Ramsammy) and # 7 American Signature (Clark). Here’s the thinking; Breakwithtradition is going to be even money. If we beat him, we’re sitting on a good double and having the four best shots in the second will elevate our heart rate.
First Double, Woodbine: 4 & 6 with 2,4,5 & 7.
On to Saratoga: The first race is one of those strange 51/2 furlong turf sprints. I really like the 5 -horse, Sacred Icon, even if Jorge Chavez is riding. He hasn’t been the same jockey since a terrible injury a couple years ago (just 5 for 73 this year at Saratoga). Still Sacred Icon has lots of speed in a short race that doesn’t seem to have too many pace-setters. I’m also using the 12-horse, Ectoplasm, because I really loved Ghostbusters and somehow, this one will have to burst from the gate very fast to have a chance.
In the second race, here’s the four: #1 entry of They’re Late and Just A Coincidence ( wouldn’t it be a coincidence if both of them were late?), #2 In Speight of It, # 3 Ducane (Jockey Alan Garcia is trying to win the Saratoga riding title) and # 8 Big Flirt.
Saratoga first double: 5 & 12 with 1,2, 3, & 8
I’m also working the double between races 5 and 6. Anyone want to join my lobby to persuade Woodbine to have rolling doubles on their cards? In the fifth, try # 4 Dinstinctive Doc and # 8 Love for a Price onto #6 Song of Charm, #7 Me Love, #11 Amanwella ( who looks much the best!) and # 13 Critical.
Saratoga 5th race double : 4,8, with 6, 7, 11, & 13
In the 9th race, the Grade 3 Saranac Stakes, I like #1 Vacation (Prado on the rail is the closest you will get at the track to printing your own money) and #8 Thou Swell. Latch those two onto these four in the tenth: #3 Casanova Move, #5 Mine All Mine, #6 Collegiate and # 7 August Rush.
Saratoga 9th race double: 1 & 8 with 3,5,7, &7
I think I spent $32 there…so I’m now down $37.45
Good luck. And check the internet tomorrow to see if Peppers Pride wins at Ruidoso Downs. She’s gunning for a 17th straight win which would be a record for North American thoroughbreds.
Bet these at your own risk!
Friday, August 29th, 2008
Here are my first Daily Double picks. These are for Saturday, August 30 and unless otherwise specified, they are all $1 part wheels. I will try and keep track of the huge profit I make.
!st Race Woodbine: I don’t think she’ll be a price, but I like #8 Minkredible. Ramsammy loves the front end and there’s very little other speed in here. I’m also including #7 Sunset Pleasure, because David Clark is riding brilliantly, always does well on babies and will be able to watch Minkredible all the way,
2nd Race Woodbine. I like to load up in the second half of doubles, assuming I get the first winner, then I feel comfortable. I’ll take four horses here - #1 Jammo Jammo and Chantal Sutherland, # 2 Gospel Grinder, giving Ramsammy a chance to sweep the first two, # 3 Boardroom Beauty, and # 7 Return Ticket. I will be quite pissed if one of those four doesn’t win.
So the double numbers are 7 & 8 with 1,2,3,& 7
Woodbine late double, Race 9:
More of a guess than anything - #6 Jet Set Exec is the only horse with two races under his belt and Corey Fraser wins from time to time. #7 Smart Flight - basically any horse ridden by Chantal Sutherland is good enough for me; very nice works and trainer Catherine Day-Phillips is having a good year.
Race 10: Take # 1 Vespasian and McAleney because everything he rides for Asmussen is a go, #2 Wall Street Humour because he might decide not to quit one of these days, #8 Bearish because he’s shown an ability to come flying late and #9 Major Eddie G. because jockey Eurico Rosa da Silva has a lovely smile.
Late double at Woodbine: 6&7 with 1,2,8 &9
Saratoga Race One: Julien Leparoux is having a breakthrough session at the Spa and I like him on #1 Terrific Storm. I’m also using #5 Por Favor who seems to like the front end.
Race two: Taking four here - #1 Long Jump, even though I’m not a big fan of Channing Hill, #5 Storm Harbour - Coa is riding great and this horse already has three grass races, #6 Sol A Pino with my man Edgar Prado, and # 8 Sharif Al Medina who has an 83 Beyer on yielding turf.
So the first double at Saratoga is : 1&5 with 1, 5,6 & 8
So I’m spending $24
If You’ve Ever Gambled You Must Read This!
Thursday, August 28th, 2008
Hope that title got your attention. Among the many (perhaps too many) things I do these days, I publish a horse racing paper - Down The Stretch ( www.downthestretchnewspaper.com) so it falls on my shoulders to direct those inclined to wager some of their disposable income towards the very best bet offered legally in the free world.
I’m talking about the daily double. For those of you who do not regularly attend horse racing ( and what is your problem?), the daily double is a bet in which you attempt to select the winners of two consecutive races. In recent years, I have become practically evangelical about this wager.
Why?
Because it offers the greatest possible payoff for a relatively small investment. Not to brag, but I’ve lost count of the daily doubles I have cashed this year that paid over $100. My guess is I’ve done it more than 20 times. I had a Sunday last month in which I hit 7 doubles, most returning $50 or more on a $1 bet.
Of course, I’m a genius horseplayer, imbued with superior racing knowledge, incredible math skills and remarkable money management strategies. And Scarlett Johanssen returns my calls.
But back to my premise…the Daily Double is the best bet you can make.
Here’s the reason why. With every bet you make, in the lottery, in a casino or at the track, a certain percentage is withheld; the house cut so to speak. At the track, about 20% is used to cover track expenses and fund purses. When you make a bet on a horse to win, the track withholds 20 cents on the dollar. The daily double, essentially, is just two win best in succession, but the track only applies one withholding fee.
In a recent study, a crazed horseplayer with clearly nothing better to do with his spare time, compared every outcome for a year in 649 with every daily double at the Woodbine thoroughbreds for the same time period. Before he was removed from his premises by paramedics concerned for his mental health, the analyst discovered that the same amount bet in the Daily Double would payoff at more than $20 ( on a $2 wager) 200 times as often as that same amount invested in 649.
You could compare to pro-line as well. Proline takes about 40% off the top and makes you bet three games. The payoffs rarely justify the risk.
In a casino, at black jack - sometimes a winable game for the player - the house’s edge is less than 2%; but to win requires perfect basic strategy play, and the discipline to walk when a profit has been made. Very few can pull this off.
One aspect of the daily double that is most appealing - particularly to me, since I almost always bet against the favourite - is that when the horse with the lowest odds is beaten, the double payoffs seem to expand exponentially. By this, I mean that if you hit a double that does not have a favourite in it, the payoff is much greater than the math of multiplying the odds of the two winners together.
I’ll give you an example (there’s a good one practically every day). On Saturday, August 23 at Woodbine, the winner of the 9th race was 3.90-1. The winner of the 10th race was 5.90-1. A 4-1 shot and a 6-1 shot would seem to indicate odds of 24-1 in the double, which would pay about $50 ( and that’s nice for a deuce, isn’t it?). That daily double came in at $82.90, or about 60% higher than a mathematical parlay of the two winners.
Another way to look at this: It costs $2 to buy one line of 649. When was the last time you won $82.90 in 649?
Here’s an offer you can’t refuse. I will give daily double picks on the weekend to anyone responding to this blog. I’ll need your e-mail.
I think I won the Media Handicapping Contest, but it’s rife with controversy!
Monday, August 25th, 2008
According to Woodbine Entertainment’s website this morning, I am the winner of the annual Media Handicapping contest, though that may be subject to argument and litigation. The Handicapping Challenge required us to pick ten horses on Saturday and ten more on Sunday and make mythical wagers of $2 win/place on each. Woodbine Media officer Adam Hickman kept track of all the submissions and calculated the final standings and here’s where it gets really weird. According to Hickman’s totals ( and the guy is always deadly accurate) the guy with the highest total was…..Adam Hickman.
Now do not get the impression that I’m suggesting Hickman stuffed the ballot box. He’s a pretty knowledgeable and skilled horseplayer and because he’s at the track every day, he’s as likely a person as anyone to hit a few winners. But as I understand it, as an employee of Woodbine Entertainment, he’s ineligible to claim the top prize (I’m told it’s a TV set or digital camera). Hickman is a non betting interest, so to speak.
This could drag on in the courts for years. There’s another problem. I e-mailed my picks, and the selections of Jim McKenny to Woodbine on Friday evening. But I had an annoying computer issue for most of Saturday and when I phoned Hickman on Sunday, he told me he hadn’t received my picks for Saturday until late Saturday evening. Still, he could see that I had attempted to submit them on time and promised they would count. I also assured him I had posted my picks in this blog early Saturday morning.
It’s interesting to note that McKenny’s selections came third - Jim has never in his life e-mailed anyone, so each year, I do this for him. Since Hickman’s totals don’t count, I’m claiming to have finished first and second among the 17 eligible members of the media. Considering my normal horse playing capacities, that’s one huge exactor.
I did do well with my picks on Sunday. I had a second in the third race, and just missed by a nose on 8-1 shot Panther Strike in the fourth, then connected on Glitter Rox, the 2.25-1 winner of the Belle Geste Stakes. I also had a 7-2 winner at Saratoga.
What I’m worried about is the fourth place finisher, Ron Geirkink of the Daily Racing Form. He could lodge an inquiry against each of the second and third place finishers, claiming that one didn’t file on time and the other didn’t really file at all.
I think I won a prize. I’m not sure I’ll ever see it.
Media Handicapping Totals:
Adam Hickman $115.10
Peter Gross $87.30
Jim McKenny $76.20
Ron Gierkink $74.80
Jennifer Morrison $74.50
Richard Mauntah $73.10
Cindy Peirson Dulay $69.00
Shirley Gill $68.00
Gregg Peacock $65.00
Bill Tallon $64.70
Klaus Ebner $57.50
Dan Loiselle $56.50
Chris Connor $52.80
Steve Roberts $48.30
Jeff Bratt $42.20
Joe Tilley $35.00
Chris Young $32.50
John Siscos $10.20
Picking Winners ( I hope)
Saturday, August 23rd, 2008
This is the weekend of Woodbine’s Handicapping Challenge. The fans are playing for real money. The media gets to play for free with the chance of scoring a tv set or digital camera. Through several years of this, I have never won, but since it doesn’t cost me anything, I’m taking another shot. I also submit Jim Mckenny’s picks because the guy is internet challenged and apparently, never uses e-mail.
The media has to submit ten selections for Saturday and Sunday and a mythical $2 win/place bet is made on each. The winner is the one whose money total is the highest.
Here are my ten selections for Saturday August 23rd. I have posted them at 9:00 am:
Woodbine Race 2: #3 Hold That Approval
Woodbine Race 6 #3 Disfunction
Woodbine Race 8 #7 Pon Des Soupirs
Woodbine Race 9 #2 Bear’s Prado
Woodbine Race 10 # 5 Runoff to LA
Saratoga Race 4 #11 Dazzling Derek
Saratoga Race 8 #6 Porte Bonheur
Saratoga Race 9 #3 Operation Red Dawn
Saratoga Race 11 #8 Harlem Rocker
Saratoga Race 12 #4 Fra Lippo
These are the picks Ihave made for Jim McKenny. If he wins, I will take legal action to claim his prize:
Woodbine Race 2 # 2 Deep Scarlet
Woodbine Race 6 #8 Le Cinquieme Essai
Woodbine Race 8 #1 Entry
Woodbine Race 9 #10 Carina Bay
Woodbine Race 10 #7 Sormani
Saratoga Race 4 #2 Beneath the Crown
Saratoga Race 8 #6 Porte Bonheur
Saratoga Race 9 #3 Operation Red Dawn
Saratoga Race 11 #1 Tale of Ekati
Saratoga Race 12 #6 Rockon Rockoff
You will see that I have picked Frank Stronach’s Harlem Rocker to win the Travers Stakes - race 11 at Saratoga. This is not a great field and Harlem Rocker did only what he had to do when he won the Prince of Wales last month. I interviewed jockey Eibar Coa in Saratoga a few weeks ago and he said he hadn’t yet discovered just how good Harlem Rocker can be. Maybe we’ll find out today.
The Sad End to a Thoroughbred’s Life
Wednesday, August 20th, 2008
I had quite the bittersweet day yesterday. This blog is called Down The Stretch because of the newspaper of the same name that I edit and distribute freely (and for free) at Woodbine and out of the trunk of my car. In the last issue, we published a story on horse rescuer Alex Brown. I recommend you read it yourself - we’re on-line at www.downthestretchnewspaper.com and I can send a hard copy to anyone who bothers to e-mail me…but to sum it up, Alex Brown gave up a number of lucrative positions to apply himself fulltime to the battle against horse slaughter. He gallops horses for Steve Asmussen in the mornings at Woodbine, using his backstretch status to determine the ways and means that horses work their way down the racing ladder to the point that they end up getting sold by the pound as meat for human consumption..
Listen to Horse rescuer Alex Brown on THE FAN 590’s Director’s Chair with Doug Farraway:
I accepted Alex’ invitation to join him yesterday as he dropped in on an auction of livestock in Kitchener. The point was to see if there were any thoroughbreds whose lives had become so worthless to their owners, that they were being offered up for sale for whatever the market would offer.
With associate editor Eleanor LeBlanc doing the driving, we arrived at the Ontario Livestock premises, a huge and dreary building outside Kitchener. Alex walked from stall to stall, looking for horses that once ran in pari-mutuel races. There were several standardbred horses and Alex did find at least two thoroughbreds. Entering their pens with not the slightest gram of fear, Alex pulled the horse’s head towards him and forced the upper lip open to record the tattoo. He told me if the tattoo is clear enough, it’s relatively easy to determine who the horse is. One of two thoroughbreds had a readable mark, the other’s was too blurred to figure out.
We went and sat in the small arena, which was pretty well full - about 100 people, many of whom were Amish, looking for a horse to help with the work on the farm ( or at least, that was the merry story I was telling myself).
The auctioner kept things going at a near-furious clip. A horse would enter the arena, the bidding would begin and usually, within :45, the horse was sold. Based apparently on the auctioneer’s discretion, the bidding would be either in dollars or in cents. Alex told me that when the bidding was in cents, it was about how much a pound the horse would be sold for. After awhile, one of the horses that Alex had identified as a thoroughbred was led into the arena. Like all the others, he was fractious, frightened, disoriented. In thirty seconds, his fate was sealed. 29 cents a pound.
“He’s going to a kill pen,” said Alex, his voice devoid of emotion.
Both of the thoroughbreds suffered the same fate. Eleanor was close to distraught. She owns and rides horses of her own and has difficulty understanding why anyone could have a horse, take care of it, run it in races, then let it go for a few hundred dollars, especially when the final act is almost certainly a tragic and pathetic one.
It was certainly an interesting and eye-opening experience. Alex Brown is the guy to talk to about the horse slaughter industry in Canada. At his site - http://alexbrownracing.com/wiki/index.php/Project_Sage - you can see the remarkable responses from horse lovers around the world. Because of the relentless work by people like him, there is legislation moving forward in the United States that will make horse slaughter illegal as well as criminalizing the transportation of horses out of the US for the purpose of slaughter elsewhere.
It is still legal in Canada to slaughter horses.
Somebeachsomewhere - Harness Racing’s Superstar!
Monday, August 18th, 2008
Why is it that Harness racing gets very little mainstream coverage in this market? Yesterday at Flamboro Downs, a bright little half mile track several miles north of Hamilton, the superstar of pacing, Somebeachsomewhere abused all his opponents to take the Confederation Cup in two ridiculously easy heats. In the final, driver Paul MacDonell encouraged ‘Beach’ to a world record time (for a half mile) of 1:49.2, even though the three year-old was unchallenged, hitting the wire four stress-free lengths ahead of the next one.
Somebeachsomewhere is a great story. He is owned by Schooner Stables of Nova Scotia; this is a collection of mostly small investors who really hit the jackpot with this one. Somebeachsomewhere has won 14 of his 15 lifetime races -his only loss was by a head in the Meadowlands Cup and that race was run in 1:47, also a world record.
Somebeachsomewhere is partly owned and fully trained by Brent MacGrath of Truro N.S. and while MacGrath exudes enormous pride and enthusiasm for his colt, he doesn’t come across like the excessively egocentric Richard Dutrow, the trainer of Big Brown. MacGrath is a great example of the little guy hitting it big, a guy who puts his horse’s welfare above all other temptations. Three months ago, preparing a story for Down The Stretch ( Canada’s most entertaining and comprehensive racing paper), I had the pleasure of spending an hour in MacGrath’s barn in Campbellville, face to face with the charasmatic Somebeachsomewhere who, by the way, knows how important he is.
When Beach races at Mohawk, the attendance is usually about double normal. They jam the rail to see a superstar in his prime. After winning a recent race at Mohawk, MacDonell brought Somebeachsomewhere back down the track for an encore and the happy crowd roared with approval.
Many horse racings stories don’t resonant with mainstream media, perhaps because of the betting that is attached to the game ( though that doesn’t seem to compromise the NFL).
I’m as guilty of this as anyone. I did a dozen sportscasts this morning on 680News. You’d think I’d find someplacesomehowsometime to mention Somebeachsomewhere. I didn’t.
My own rigid conformance notwithstanding, this is a real sports star. It is almost certain that by the end of the year, Somebeachsomewhere will set a time record pacing a prompted mile faster than any other gaited horse. It will make his value as a stallion spectacular.
Maybe it’s time for the media to jump on his sulky.
My First Blog
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
So here I am, 58 years old and never been blogged. And that all changes now. This is the first blog for Down The Stretch, the horse racing paper that I edit. You can get Down The Stretch at Woodbine - at the west entrance near the Horse Racing Hall of Fame - or read it on-line at www.downthestretchnewspaper.com. Anyway, Rogers has asked me to blog horse racing stuff, so I guess this is where you go to read my ramblings.
What do I know about blogging? Do people write back and comment? Guess I’ll find out.
I was at Woodbine last night, more or less double tasking. I needed a shot of jockey Chantal Sutherland for a story I’m writing on her five win day last Saturday. I had also been asked to attend the meeting of the Toronto Thoroughbred Racing Club on the third floor in Champions and since I was tossing the odd bet into the mutuels, I guess I was triple tasking.
The Chantal part of the equation was solved almost instantly. As soon as I entered the jockey’s quarters, there was Sandy Hawley and his camcorder interviewing the somewhat photogenic Sutherland. These clips would be used a little later on The Score’s live coverage of the Wednesday night racing. I grabbed a couple shots of Sutherland, then raced up to the sixth floor to find a gratuitous form in the media office (rule#1 - never pay for a form if someone has a free one!).
I bet on Chantal in the first, but Robert Landry, who is having a resurging season came roaring through the stretch on the longest shot, Sligo King and paid $43.90 to win.
I presented myself to the Toronto Thorougbred Racing Club and was warmly recieved by directors Don Burton and Sam Lima, both of whom have incredible passion and love for racing. Also attending last night were trainer Les Frost and jockeys Jackie Wyatt and Cory Spataro. Sorry Corie, is that Corey or Corry or Corrie - it was the first time I’ve met the rookie.
Then ensued a very enjoyable hour and half of racing conversation with the TTRC members - we touched on the difference between poly and real dirt, the issues of weight for jockeys, which riders were doing very well - Sutherland, Tyler Pizzaro and leading rider Jim McAleney. There was even a few minutes dedicated to Somebeachsomewhere and we all agreed he was very important to horse racing even if he is a standardbred.
I impressed the full gathering in Champions when I hit both the second and third race exactors ( $61.90, $70) but came up empty in the fifth after declaring no one should really bet it. Constant Montpellier came from out of the clouds to win it with Witness to All, after all in attendance had witnessed me insisting the front runners would prevail.
I begged off after the fifth race, looking at my watch and realizing I had to wake up in a few hours to tell the world that Canada had still not won any medals.
At home, before I nodded off, I think I picked the late double - Emma-Jayne Wilson by nose in the 7th on 11-1 shot Ky Bluz Girl onto McAleney in the 8th on favoured Holborn ($2.45-1) but I might have been dreaming. I’ll have to check my account to know for sure.
Give me some feedback on this…what should I be blogging.
And if you see me later today, just call me….blogger.



