Sunday April 5 2009 – 1:06pm Eastern (Toronto, ON) 

I could do the ‘work’ myself, but I would simply be stealing/regurgitating the same info that’s already been done by Doug Smith of the Toronto Star.

So, for all of those “this winning streak is killing our chances at more ping pong balls” folks and the “we should be tanking” people, check out the numbers (and info) from D. Smith: 

———-

“… Just in case you were wondering, and many were given the tank-no tank, lose-win, increase your chances at blowing a draft pick in the back end of the lottery, here are the percentages of winning the thing depending on where they finish among lottery teams:

Eighth: 2.8 per cent

Ninth: 1.7 per cent

Tenth: 1.1 per cent

Eleventh: 0.8 per cent

Twelfth: 0.7 per cent

Thirteenth: 0.6 per cent

Fourteenth: 0.5 per cent.

And, seeing how I figure they’ll at least remain ahead of  New York and likely catch New Jersey in the last week and a half and they’re ninth now, a couple of wins takes them from a 1.7 per cent chance of winning to, perhaps, 0.8 per cent.

That’s what? Nine-tenths of one per cent? Big whoop…”

———-

I couldn’t have said it better myself Doug. 

Enjoy the game tonight folks.  Remember, Jonesy and I are on the air with the pre-game at 5:30pm and the tip off goes just after 6:00pm

E. Smith

23 Responses to “Blowing Up The Tank Theory”
  1. 1.

    Isn’t this a weak draft anyway? No one that will make a huge difference! No definitive number 1 pick? Who would be he best pick? Hey E my bracket final has come to fruition! How’s your final??

    - Lanny from Whitby
  2. 2.

    Hey Eric,

    You could at least give Doug a link to his blog…courtesy and all ;-)

    Cheers,

    -apw

    - apw
  3. 3.

    The draft is not the issue for this team. Drafting 8th to 12th doesn’t give them much of a chance of an impact player, anyways. And the paying fans deserve much more than a tank job, anyways.

    The main issue for this team is choosing the player to build the team around. And ensuring that this player imspires his fellow teammates to overahieve. And, lastly, to find the right group of coaches to inspire determination and commitment from the whole bunch.

    In the history of the sport, nearly every single great team has had either an all star point guard or an all star shooting guard/small forward. In most cases, this player is one of the top 5 players in the league.

    Until the Raptors find a way to draft/sign/trade for one of these players, no one outside of Toronto will be able to even name the arena they play in.

    And that’s the truth, Ruth.

    - brento
  4. 4.

    http://www.eiaonline.com/uploaded_images/captobvious-738633-747223.jpg

    Good players make teams good? Thanks Brento

    Why do you try to hijack every blog and make it about you and your opinions? Wasn’t this original post just about “tanking” and the draft overall, and not about trades, free agent signings, and coaches?

    - Jack
  5. 5.

    Most think Blake Griffin of Okl . will be an NBA All-Star .. impact player if he enters draft .

    Like to see the Raps keep this win streak going .. It might entice a few free agents to consider TO . Raps might even catch Bucks in standings.
    Magic have won 8/9 ( they had Cavs by 41 pts at one point) – and their only loss was at home to Raps . That says something .

    Triano looks like he is close to securing his job for next season ? If Raps win out , 37-45 , just 4 games worse than last year .

    - Chas Calz
  6. 6.

    Jack your response to Brento is weak. Brento’s response is in relation to building a proper team and tanking in some people’s eye’s is one way to get a player for your rebuilding process, trades is another way and so is free agent signings. It’s no surprise that this team needs to use all three stratagies to make this team a contender moving foward. By the way Jack I thought blogs were a forum for opinion.

    - Thomas
  7. 7.

    Ruth??? I thought Eric posted this, who’s Ruth?? I don’t get it! Brento I have to ask you, if you think this team sucks so bad, Why do you own a set of seasons tickets? While I understand your points, why isit that most teams in the league are wondering the samething we fans are. WTF happened to this season? We have some good parts on this team, and any GM that can trade Rafael Araujo for serviceable Big man is pretty good! The NBA is like a box of chocolates, you never know what u gonna get!

    - Lanny from Whitby
  8. 8.

    Does that mean Tim Duncan can’t be the focal point of the San Antonio Spurs because he’s a Power foward and oh by the way has won 4 NBA titles right brento.

    - andrew
  9. 9.

    Lanny While your Glorifying Colangelo for trading Arujo for Humphries Lets no forget Former Gm Glen Grunwalds trade when he sent high schooler Johnathan Bender who never overcame injuries to the pacers for power foward and allstar in Toronto Antonio Davis who became our starting bigman and was a big part of our playoff run in the Carter days. If we are going to live off the one of two decent trades that Colangelo has pulled off since being here, I think we should stop and take a look at the overall record in the past two years.

    - Thomas
  10. 10.

    Thomas,
    You have a very valid point, however that being said we should take the entire tenure into consideration.

    Year 1 – a winning season with a division championship- first round exit

    Year 2 – a .500 record and first round exit

    Year 3 – sub par year, major trade back firing completely, coach being fired (early in my estimation)- no playoffs

    So far it’s not all doom and gloom as made out to be but not great! I think BC would Agree that this year hasn’t gone as planned but firing him without giving him a chance would be to quick. In addition to that I thought that Grunwald was the fall guy for other meddling hands (MLSE) and shouldn’t have been let go.

    Right now we have a well respected GM and we should let him do his job. If during his tenure he wasn’t makng bold calculated moves to try and get this team to win I would be agreeing he should be fired, but the fact he recognizes areas of concerns and tries to address them and when they don’t work he tries something else and doesn’t screw with the cap flexibility is pretty good! That’s all I got to say about that. Don’t get me wrong you have valid points but I think there is alot to consider! Thanks

    - Lanny from Whitby
  11. 11.

    Andrew…my response to your comment is simple:

    Tim Duncan is one of the BEST big men to EVER play this game!!

    And, on top of that, he has a great all-star point guard, a 6th man extraordinnaire in Manu Ginobili, and a great coach, with a GREAT system, coach Pops.

    So, of course, it’s easy to find the one or two big men who have dominated in this sport. But, outside of Dwight Howard, the position has changed, and it doesn’t seem likely there will be too many more guys like Duncan and Shaq (and the plethora of other 80s greats like Ewing and Hakeem the Dream).

    Anyways, Bosh is not Duncan. That is clear. He may have a bit of Garnett in him, but he doesn’t yet have the physical and mental commitment of a Garnett.

    And, as we all know, we don’t have anyone approaching the talents of leadership of guys like Pierce and Allen.

    That’s why I don’t see Chris Bosh carrying us far. I like him as a second player, but not as the focal point of this team.

    - brento
  12. 12.

    And Lanny: In response to you, I own my season seats because I love this team and have been supporting it for nine seasons.

    That said, as anyone who reads this board knows, I recently gave up two of my four seats. It’s been impossible to sell them (at cost!) and I haven’t had much success giving them away to friends, who are tired of watching this bad/mediocre team.

    And I post on this board because I need to vent, after what seems like too many years of frustration and watching teams like Orlando and Atlanta, once far behind us in their development…fly right to the top of the freakin’ conference.

    It frustrates me to no end!!

    And my girlfriend doesn’t talk hoops…other topics, sure…but ball, no.

    That’s why I’m here.

    - brento
  13. 13.

    Bento, many will agree with what you said – but we’re looking for the “how we might do that” comments. What trade/draft/signing etc to we look at to get us there?
    We all know that type of star would put us over the top – I think the point of the blog post was that tanking will not help and fans should look elsewhere for options to improve this team.
    Oh, and there are a number of examples were a big lead a team and won the big dance. A strong (but by no means top 5 player) three could be enough when added to an excellent core Bosh/Calderon/Bargs.
    With Sacramento / OKC / Wash / Char / etc all facing financial trouble, they may have to move strong assets to dump salary – and if (and yes, it’s a big IF) MLSE is willing we could make a couple bold moves this offseason.

    - Tom (Toronto)
  14. 14.

    I agree, Tom. The answer to “how might we do that” is invaluable.

    So far, BC has not improved the team from the one he inherited. Sure, he drafted Bargnani but, with the number #1 overall pick, the expectation was to draft an impact player (and Bargs is beginning to look like that type of player).

    However, with Bosh, Calderon and Bargs already under contract (and Bargs due for a HUGE raise), that’s about it for starts in Toronto.

    MLSE will NOT go above the cap. That is clear…in fact, the Leafs, with the most valuable franchise in the entire NHL, were way UNDER the cap this year. So, don’t expect the Raps to spend a penny more than they are permitted under the current CBA.

    My issue with this team remains Chris Bosh, and his role as the team’s “star”. With about $10 million to spend, and Bargs on the way up, there will not be another star to play with Bosh.

    Unless, of course, one of Jose or Bargnani is traded, which seems EXTREMELY unlikely…given Colangelo’s arrogant demeanour and the fact he signed/re-signed them.

    Any ideas? I don’t really have any.

    - brento
  15. 15.

    Tom over the past decade the biggest champioship pice has been the 2/3. so I would like to respectfully disagree with you on the fact that a big on his own lead the team to the big dance. The last Time that a big lead his team was the back to back Championship Rockets, When Michael Jordan temporarily retired to calm down on gambling.

    - Thomas
  16. 16.

    Totally understandable Brento, your frustration is well understood, I know you offered up your seats to me! Which was cool and I appreciate it. I’m surprised my wife still allows me to watch the team, but hey man, I’ve cheered the mapleleafs and the suffering there still continues. Venting here is a good out! Oh well another year!!!

    - Lanny from Whitby
  17. 17.

    YO!! YOU WANNA TALK TRADE? THEN TALK ABOUT TRADING BARGNANI. YOU PEOPLE THINK HE HAS IMPROVED JUST BY SCORING?? THAT ISN’T GOOD ENOUGH. LOOK @ OTHER BIG MAN PLAYERS THAT CAN DO THE SAME THING AS HIM BUT ONLY BETTER. THEY AVERAGE MORE REBOUNDS THAN HIM. THEY AVERAGE BLOCKS MORE THAN HIM AND THEY CAN GET MORE FREE THROW ATTEMPTS THAN BARGNANI. SO UNLESS ANDREA CAN DO ANY OF THAT, WE DON’T NEED A BIG THAT FALLS FOR 3-POINT SHOTS EVERY MINUTE AND CAN’T USE HIS STRENGTH!!! THAT IS WHAT GETS ME SICK CAUSE EVERYONE IS JUST LOOKING AT HIM FOR POINTS BUT HE HAS 0% EFFORT ON DEFENSE. SO THIS BOSH/CALDERON/???? AND TRADE BARGNANI WITH SOMEONE!!

    AND IT BRINGS BACK A BAD NIGHTMARE ON THIS QUESTION. AND BARE WITH ME GUYS AND ASK YOURSELF THIS QUESTION.

    WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF WE DID HAVE JULIUS ERVING aka DR.J AS THE RAPTOR GM? THINK OF IT. THIS IS A MAN THAT WAS WILLING TO HELP OUT THIS RAPTOR BALL CLUB BEFORE HE WAS OVER-LOOKED BY BRINGING IN BABCOCK?? AND THEN BRYAN COLANGELO THROWS OUR GOOD 1ST ROUND DRAFT PICKS AWAY??

    WE WOULD HAVE HAD MASSIVE DESTRUCTIVE TALENT WHO WOULD HAVE BEEN PLAYOFF BOUND!!

    FRONT OFFICE WITH GM & AGM AS WELL AS THE SCOUTS NEEDS TO BE FIXED DURING THE OFF-SEASON. AND…MR. PEDDIE NEEDS TO BE GONE!!!

    YOU GUYS THINK ABOUT IT! THIS WOULD HAVE HAD A LOT OF BASKETBALL RESPECT INSTEAD OF BEING THE LAUGHING STOCK OF THE NBA!!!

    - BOJACK
  18. 18.

    Bojack…I hear you but you’re making HUGE assumptions about what Dr. J (someone who has never been a GM before) would have accomplished in Toronto.

    It is much easier to focus on what Bryan Colangelo has NOT accomplished in this city. The Dr. J issue is sooooooo 2005, man…give it up!

    And your ragging on Andrea Bargnani makes NO SENSE at all. To begin with, it seems as though you haven’t been watching the Raps since before the Christmas Break. Since then, and steadily so, Bargs has improved EVERY facet of his game. Points. Rebounds. Blocks. Energy. Defense.

    There is not a team in the league that wouldn’t drool at the thought of a 7 footer who can either shoot 3s or drive to the hoop. And that’s exactly what Bargs has been doing.

    Has he gained a lot of experience about wins and, most importantly, 4th quarter defensive stands? No. But, he can’t be blamed for that. This is a team game and this is a bad team…that is very clear.

    But, he has clearly stepped up his game, and deserves huge credit for that. And, given the fact he has played only 3 seasons in this league, I’d say his best is still ahead of him.

    - brento
  19. 19.

    Brento….it’s seem that you loved the soprano’s doing damage to the Raptors. It seems that you enjoy how Babcock & Colangelo overlooked real talent. And scratch out the improving on rebounds & blocks. And maybe…just maybe you should look on how MJ has build more relationships with the coaches & player unlike Bryan. The only guys he has relationship is with his assist and Peddie. Dr.J would have made this team more stronger. And besides, he knows what it takes to be an NBA champion and put a hungry squad.

    And by the way. I remember someone commenting on Glen Grunwald making apologies or thank you comment to the fans after a season is successful or unsuccessful. He show honor. Now let see if BC can do the same because if not….that proves my point that Jerry ran things with Phoenix and Bryan was the sidekick!!So why should I give it up?!

    Try looking back on what could been fixed. BC has turned into another Babcock!!!

    - BOJACK
  20. 20.

    There has always been a big man (at least a rebounder) and 3 all star players on championship teams. 1980′s Celtics; Bird, Parish, Mchale, Walton (all star calibre guards) Ainge, Denis Johnson. 1980′s lakers, for basketball fans, we don’t even have to go there. The 1st Detroit bad boys, 2 all star guards in Isaiah, Joe Dumars and Bill Laimbeer thats right Bill Laimbeer, 4 all star appearence & career pts at 12 & 9 rebs a game. The Bulls (1st 3 rings) the 1st 2 are obvious, Horace Grant 1 all star appearance 11 pts 8 rebs for his career. By the way Chris Bosh is killing Horace Grant and Laimbeer in both categories for the career actually virtually tied with Laimbeer, by the way Bosh’s career numbers are 19 pts 9.1 rbs. 2nd Bulls 3 ring circus, I mean circuit (lol) the same 2 culprits and Dennis Rodman 2 all star appearances, 7 pts 13 rbs career. The Houston rockets had of course the dream, Horry, Otis Thorpe (1 all star appearance 14 pts 8 rebs career), Sam Cassells, Kenny Smith. For the rockets repeat championship, they traded Otis Thorpe for Clyde Drexler. David Robinson had troubles winning until they got not only Tim Duncan, but also Avery Johnson (the General) Sean Eliott, to help give them their first championship. Then the other championships Parker, Ginobali, Horry, Steven Jackson. By the way when Detroit won it in 2004, during the season they traded for Rasheed Wallace, he was the one who put them over the hump. Miami when they won it had old, but veteran mega Stars, Shaq, Alonzo, Payton, Antoine Walker, Jayson Williams, Pusey oh yea & dwayne Wade.
    The bottom line is there is nothing wrong in building a team around a big man in Bosh, the only thing is if he does not have the supporting role players like all these championship teams have, the Raptors will always be in trouble. Garnett was just like Bosh came close one time, but the supporting role (Cassell & Sprewell) was dismantled. The only reason why I would understand if Bosh was traded for a equally good player like, Al Jefferson, Marcus Alridge?, Josh Smith etc, unless we can get something like that and they are under at least a contract that is 2 years longer then Bosh, it does not make sense pulling that trigger. It would be unfortunate that Bosh may have to do what Garnett and Ray Allen did, leave to join with another all star to reach that championship dream.

    - D
  21. 21.

    Bojack…did you just suggest I was supporting Bryan Colangelo?

    You must be new here.

    I have led the “Colangelo must go” charges for an entity around here.

    I have been holding the door for him forever (BEFORE this season!) and am ready for it to kick him…

    So…chill, dude. I think we’re on the same page. I just don’t like crowning guys who don’t deserve to be crowned. As far as I know, Charlotte (I think that’s where MJ is) stinks, and Dr. J has yet to lead any team anywhere.

    And Bargs absolutely deserves credit. And if you won’t give it to him…there are plenty that will.

    - brento
  22. 22.

    Well…I was hoping not to doubt you thinking that you would be supporting Bryan Colangelo. Thank goodness for that. And yeah we are on the same page for that part so we cool. But as for Andrea, I will give him credit when he gets to the line for more than 10-15 attempts. But until then, he has more to prove next season and that is something that cannot be chanced.

    - BOJACK
  23. 23.

    For Andrea to get to the line more than 10-15 times per game, he must be the focal point of this team’s offensive schemes.

    With Bosh around, that will never happen…and I’m not sure that should happen, anyways.

    I think Bosh are Bargs are both excellent candidates for 2nd scorers on a winning team.

    I see both thriving in an offense that includes a star slashing 2 or 3. And I think either one would be thrilled to play with one ;)

    - brento
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