Wednesday May 21 2008 - 3:35pm Eastern
The Chicago Bulls had a 1.7% chance of winning the NBA Draft Lottery … but Lady Luck was on their side … and they beat all odds by snagging the top pick.
And Chicago’s good fortune COULD have an impact on the Toronto Raptors.
There is still more than a month to go until the NBA Draft (June 26) but in all likelihood, the Bulls will take Derrick Rose with the number one overall pick. Rose is a Chicago kid … and he’s a pure point guard that can play at both ends of the floor. He’s a superstar in the making.
Michael Beasley is no slouch. He’d be a great choice for the Bulls as well. However, given Chicago’s depth up front, I’d be surprised if they went with Beasley and not the hometown Rose.
With Kirk Hinrich already running the show, some might argue that the Bulls really don’t need another PG … but the situation in the Windy City might be a perfect one for Rose: come in behind a veteran like Hinrich; get groomed for a year or two; then take over the show on a full-time basis. At that point, Hinrich becomes the back-up … or he’s dealt.
And here’s how I think the Draft Lottery could affect Toronto …
Miami is dying for a point guard. They need somebody to run the show for Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion (assuming he’s back with the Heat). It was a virtual lock that they would’ve selected Rose if they won the lottery. Instead, despite having the greatest odds of landing number 1, Miami fell to second. Their runner-up prize is a great one in Beasley; he could end up being an All Star himself. The Heat could have a solid threesome in Wade, Marion, and Beasley! But who is going to get them the ball?
Miami STILL needs a point guard. Badly.
If I’m Pat Riley, I’m throwing a WHACK of money at Jose Calderon. Not only is he a special guard; a pass-first guy that might be a great fit for my team … but … he’d be very popular with the Spanish fan-base in South Florida. It’d be a win-win … on the floor and off of it.
But if I can’t sign Calderon as a restricted free agent … and pry him away from Toronto … could I be just as happy with TJ Ford? I’d say the answer is “yes”.
Ford’s speed could be an asset for the Heat’s athleticism.
If Bryan Colangelo matches any offer for Calderon – which he has said he will – then it’s safe to assume he’ll be back in Toronto next year. Sure, a sign-and-trade could change things … but … if I were a betting man … like it or not … I’d say Ford is more likely to be moved.
Would Miami deal a guy like Udonis Haslem (as I’ve suggested in previous blogs) for Ford? The Raptors would get a solid rebounder and defender – someone that could easily step in to the starting line up and help Chris Bosh up front. Miami would get the guard they need.
Other contracts would have to be included to make the deal work. Dorell Wright anyone? He’s restricted.
If Toronto isn’t a trading partner for Miami, the Heat don’t have a lot of options throughout the rest of the league. There aren’t many teams with two starting point guards – like Toronto – unless you count Seattle … with Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. Thus, Miami would have to address their point guard ‘problem’ through free agency … and the list of possibilities aren’t very intriguing:
Sam Cassell – Veteran presence is great for a veteran team … not a young club like Miami.
Chris Duhon – Decent option but more of a back-up than a 35-minute-per-night starter.
Tyronn Lue – Next.
Earl Boykins – Spent half of this season on the sidelines … available to anyone and everyone.
Anthony Carter – Next.
Lindsey Hunter – Next.
Flip Murray – Next.
Dan Dickau – Intriguing as a back-up but not as a starter.
Smush Parker – NEXT!
Jason Williams – Been there; done that. If he’s back in Miami, it’s not as a front-line guy.
Darrell Armstrong – Likely retiring.
Carlos Arroyo – From 3rd guard in Orlando to lead guard in Miami? I doubt it.
Keyon Dooling – Great energy guy (and defense) off the bench, but he’s not a starter on a good team.
Kevin Ollie – Next.
Beno Udrih – He had a solid season with the Kings. Championship experience with the Spurs. He could be a legit option.
Damon Stoudamire – His best years are behind him. He’s a veteran back-up now. No more.
Roger Mason – Good shooter. Breakout season will earn him a good raise. But I don’t see him as an every day starting PG.
So keep your eyes on the Raptors and Heat. We’ll see if my ‘theory’ plays out or not …
E. Smith
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Would the Heat trade for Ford and someone else for the #2 pick? (Bargnani or Parker) If they are that desperate for a PG, maybe Colangelo could work something out.
- Aaron KerChicago gets the pick and the Swrisk…what going on over here…I do think that there is a trade possibility between Miami and Toronto but BC has one more thing to take care of and that is, sign someone who can score on a consistent basis alongside Bosh
- WaqasEric, who is the second best PG in the draft? Would they pass on Beasly for another solid young guard??
- jeffI’ve got to say Aaron, I don’t want to turn this into a “fantasy trade” thing. Anybody that listens to “The Rap” or to “Hoops” knows that I can’t stand ‘trade talk’. I was merely throwing out a theory that Miami needs a PG, and Toronto has 2. And with the comments that both Ford and Calderon have made (about wanting to start, etc) it seems clear that something’s gotta give in Toronto.
Perhaps I shouldn’t have mentioned Haslem’s name. I was simply trying to give an example though … of a possible deal or player that might help the Raptors *IF* they were to make such a trade.
Thanks for the comments though.
- E. SmithJeff – OJ Mayo is not a PG … so … I’d say the 2nd best guard would likely be Russell Westbrook out of UCLA. He’s a top 10 guy, but not a #2 pick. I think there’s NO chance Miami passes on Michael Beasley (assuming they keep the pick).
- E. SmithEric, would it be dangerous to trade T.J Ford to Miami given they might be a playoff team next year with Marion, Wade, Beasley, and Ford? I would rather trade TJ to the Western Conference if i could? Also, do you when Toronto can start offering a contract extention to Chris Bosh as i think this offseason will determine whether Bosh stay in Toronto or leave as a free agent in 2010?
- andrewAlso, I’m just wondering why you still have confidence in Boston even though they have not won a road playoff game and Ray Allen is cold?
- andrewEric, I agree that Miami is a likely trade partner with the Raptors for TJ. But, I wouldn’t trade TJ for Haslem.
If I’m the Raptors, assuming that Miami will be looking to rebuild – which is a good bet – I instead look at offering TJ and Rasho and maybe a draft pick to Miami for Shawn Marion. Miami gets a PG, draft pick and cap space while Toronto gets a player who addresses their perimeter defense and rebounding issues.
Alternatively, I would offer up TJ and Graham to Cleveland for Varejao and Delonte West. I would prefer Varejao over Haslem as Varejao is the perfect rebounder and hustle type player that this team needs. Haslem provides the same qualities but he’s older and a smaller player than Varejao.
One last thing Eric, if Chicago takes Rose, one PG who might be available to Miami is a trade of Haslem for Kirk Hinrich. That would make sense to both teams.
Eric, any comments or thoughts on Marion or these points? Thanks for your analysis as always.
- RobertI really don’t want to turn this into a fantasy trade thing … or drum-up some bogus rumors.
- E. SmithIF you a trading TJ, I don’t think you worry about East or West. You find the best trade, whatever it is.
As for Chicago, I could see them looking to deal Hinrich right now, but that’d put a lot of pressure on Rose to step in RIGHT NOW and lead the way for the Bulls.
In Miami, I doubt they’d deal Marion – or not re-sign him. They’ve got to have something to show for dealing Shaq. Plus, if they get him for the right price, why would they discard Marion? He’s exactly what almost every team needs/wants.
Finally, I still have confidence in Boston because while they haven’t won on the road, they haven’t been beaten at home. And until that happens, they don’t need to worry about the road. We’ll see who ‘blinks first’.
- E. SmithEric is more in the loop. But I just don’t think T.J Ford can be moved for anything close to his real value. I maybe be living is Disney World with this type of thinking but I am not sold on this point guard issue not being made manageable to at least the Trade Deadline. I would feel more at ease with a trade at that point. Kobe was as good as gone and that worked out is the Ford v Calderon issue worse? I don’t think it is.
- James Borbath